Bloodstar
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This guy,and many others think that if we get alot of rain here in May,That meanes the Bermuda High is weak.And that will save us from Hurricanes.
Interesting idea, but I'd still prefer to see something more than anecdotal evidence. Particularly when we're talking about an even in May that effects an event in July - September (or later). I'm not trying to say it can't happen, just mildly skeptical.
-Mark
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M. S. Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Georgia Tech - May 2020
Brookhaven National Laboratory
U. Arizona PhD Student
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Lysis
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. In todays local paper they have a "expert" say that he can go back 75 years and prove that rain fall in May means a low chance of Florida getting hit.He states that in 1992 Florida had the 2nd dryest May ever,and that is when Andrew hit.Alot of talk about this here.
Conversely, in my paper (no joke) we have a so-called "expert" who is certain that a major hurricane will hit somewhere between Fort Myers and Tampa this season. "There is no longer any doubt in my mind" (this is him verbatim!). Point being, largely disregard what you hear in the local media, namely because they either don't know what they are talking about, or do but want to be pc and get better ratings by scaring their emotionally stricken readers.
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cheers
Edited by Lysis (Wed Jun 01 2005 07:00 PM)
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tpratch
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Loc: Maryland
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Ahh, home again.
I lurked last year, posted a few times and am back into visiting mode.
This season is definitely going to be odd after last year. Example: When buying a house, the one that got the nod from my wife and I was the one that had hurricane windows and pre-cut/drilled plywood labelled for each window. We also asked how long after each major storm they went without power, and noted that their roof didn't lose a shingle and that none of their trees were down.
I still haven't replaced the windsheild on my project car, but since it now has its own space in the garage, I don't feel as hurried to do so.
Hello to names familiar and new and let's hope we have a much smoother ride in Florida than last year.
Cheers
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Clark
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I wouldn't say "and many others." He's the only guy quoted in the article on that, which you can find in the Orlando Sentinel (and probably the South Fl. Sun-Sentinel, too) today.
What they are trying to get at is the position of the subtropical jet -- and by correlation, El Nino/La Nina events. Disturbances in the subtropical jet can bring a lot of rainfall to wherever they pass over; during an El Nino year, the subtropical jet is generally further south than normal & often over the Florida peninsula, resulting in above average rainfall in S. Florida. Thus, low rainfall --> La Nina events --> more Atlantic activity --> greater chance of a landfall (and conversely, high rainfall --> El Nino events --> less Atlantic activity -- > less chance of a landfall).
Doesn't always work that way, though. Andrew occured during an El Nino year, 1992. So did the storm in 1965 that they reference. Another year referenced, 1935, was a neutral year. South Florida, over the past 50-75 years, has only seen a few landfalling major hurricanes, not enough to make the statistics significant. Most of them were in the 1960s, and only Betsy in 1965 was a "direct hit."
Furthermore, rainfall this time of year in S. Florida can be influenced by any number of factors: midlatitude systems, disturbances in the subtropical jet, tropical waves, sea breeze -- and so on. It only takes one system at either end of the month to bring about a lot of rainfall. Thus, the anecdotal evidence they present doesn't have much more merit than saying that extremely dry months brought about a landfall in S. Florida. I will give them that: the other years I found with major hurricanes in S. Florida (1945, 1960, 1964) also had rainfall < 5" in May.
Otherwise, there is no common thread amongst the dry months/years that makes physical sense, particularly in terms of the cycle (the single biggest modulator of tropical activity), to help logically explain the connection. There have been other dry months that have not seen tropical activity, and many wet months that did. Extending it to Central Florida doesn't help much, either: landfalls as a major storm in Cent. FL are pretty rare, particularly along the east coast.
What can you draw from this? Two things...
1) Landfalls can occur without any precedent. This is the "it only takes one" principle. It has little to nothing to do with climate patterns affecting solely Miami/Dade County.
2) The media will take a few quotes that make sense to most of the public to sensationalize a story, particularly when it relates to the start of a new hurricane season (after one that was pretty memorable in this state).
It's an interesting connection, but I'd put pretty little weight in the story...none if I were outside Miami.
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Keith234
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Quote:
In todays local paper they have a "expert" say that he can go back 75 years and prove that rain fall in May means a low chance of Florida getting hit.He states that in 1992 Florida had the 2nd dryest May ever,and that is when Andrew hit.Alot of talk about this here.
the weather pattern cannot be induced by future development of hurricanes...dry may's in florida just mean there's a strong el nino around.
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"I became insane with horrible periods of sanity"
Edgar Allan Poe
Edited by Keith234 (Wed Jun 01 2005 07:20 PM)
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Steve hirschb.
Unregistered
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Have to agree with Clark on this one - too many factors lead to rainfall in Florida. This is the typical rainy season - 1998 was not and several big hurricanes formed that could have struck given the right circumstances. '92 was an El Nino year bigtime.
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Fletch
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Happy June 1st. I look forward to continued intellectual discussions with all of you. While none of us wish any harm or damage to anyone, we all have a passion for these storms. Its nice to have a forum to share this passion.
Best of luck to all of you this season.
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Irwin M. Fletcher
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Heather
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Now I thought that having little rainfall in May was an indicator that El Nino was not strong or not present, which would lead to increased tropical activity. The Bermuda High was a directional steering thing which doesn't affect activity only the direction in which it travels. I didn't think that rainfall and El Nino affected the Bermuda High. Make sense or am I really off?
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When it rains, it pours...
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Kevin
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Quote:
Now I thought that having little rainfall in May was an indicator that El Nino was not strong or not present, which would lead to increased tropical activity. The Bermuda High was a directional steering thing which doesn't affect activity only the direction in which it travels. I didn't think that rainfall and El Nino affected the Bermuda High. Make sense or am I really off?
Well, if the Bermuda High is too strong, it can seriously inhibit the development of weaker systems. I believe that an overly strong BH is sometimes referred to as a "fast ridge". The circulations in developing systems simply can't properly align when the weather system is moving off to the west too quickly. Overall though, the BH probably isn't a major factor as far as activity levels go. Steering-wise, it is quite important.
Also, in Florida, May is part of the dry season. El Nino tends to increase precipitation and storminess in Florida during the dry season. However, we typically see a decrease in storms in FL caused by low pressure areas associated with the jet stream later in the dry season (hence a more summer-like pattern by May/June).
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LI Phil
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The Bermuda High is an area of high pressure that forms over the Atlantic Ocean during the hurricane season.
Storms move westward on the southern edge of the high-pressure area until finding the western side of the high. The winds around the high turn the storm and carry it to the northeast. The turn usually occurs before most storms hit land. Last year, the high was farther south and west than normal, forcing storms to travel west longer and hit land before turning northeast.
As Kevin said, the BH is not really a factor in the amount of activity, as hurricanes don't generally form in the area affected by the BH. It is generally the long trackers (CV storms) which ride the trades westward until the reach the western fringes of the High (which spins clockwise) which turns these storms north...unfortunately, and Jeanne and the BH's position further west and south, drove them into florida rather than recurving them.
Other storms, which took the more southerly route, were not affected by the BH at all (Charley & )...so we can still see a devastating cane or three regardless of the position and strength of the BH.
At this point in the season, I wouldn't "worry" about the BH, but it is something that will need to be watched closely as the season progresses.
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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LI Phil
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Just in case anyone is interested, Jim Williams from Hurricane City is kicking off the 2005 season with a live broadcast tonight at 8:00 ET. His website can be found here and the link to the broadcast (you need real audio) is right there at the top in the middle of the front page.
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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wxman007
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Exercise extreme caution when referenced "experts" make such claims as what has been discussed...especially when it runs contrary to common sense or the consensus. Those of you alive in the early 70's will remember that a LOT of climate scientists were trumpting the fact we were definately headed into a new "Ice Age"...now we are hearing nothing but "Global Warming is a known fact". If you make a wild enough claim, I can pretty much guarantee that you can find a scientist somewhere that will back it up!
Regardless of the forecast, prepardness is the key...most prepardness items are cheap and relatvely nonperishable. Remember that no matter what we in the media, the National Weather Service, the Red Cross, or any governmnent agency do, YOU are ultimately responsible for you and your family's safety.
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Jason Kelley
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Kevin
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Quote:
Regardless of the forecast, prepardness is the key...most prepardness items are cheap and relatvely nonperishable. Remember that no matter what we in the media, the National Weather Service, the Red Cross, or any governmnent agency do, YOU are ultimately responsible for you and your family's safety.
Redundant advice, but HIGHLY logical. With adequate preparation, one should be able to handle most things thrown their way.
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Clark
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Keith234 -- actually, El Nino events bring about enhanced rainfall to Florida. La Nina events are very, very dry here -- such as we saw in 1998 and 1999 with the vast expanses of burning forest land. Precipitation distributions with El Nino vs. normal for the entire US: http://www.coaps.fsu.edu/papers/us_climate_enso_events/predjf.en.gif
It sort of runs in contrast to what the quotes from the article would suggest for such a scenario and thus forms part of why one needs to take such blanket statements with a grain of salt. The data fits his conclusion, but not why.
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doug
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Good discussion already...I was trying to run some personal recollections and correlations on what occurred here this May and other seasons, but without any data I can't draw any conclusions.
A good discussion of factors influencing the number and possible tracks of stroms is on the TropicalStormRisk.com site.
They are sampling the BH and several other basins. One of those I think is the relative position of the sutropical jet especially from July 1 on. Of course the BH vascillates N/S throughout the summer and I guess a "weak" BH is one that has its mid point further north. If the STJ is shifted south and east it will tend to push that high a little north. Such is the pattern we have now in the GOM and the wetness we have for these few days is because of disturbances along that jet.
All this should relax in a few days. I will wait until late June and see where the BH sems to be digging in then before making any conclusions on its potential influences.
14/8/4
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doug
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MapMaster
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Arlene could be in the making...off Nicaragua (traditional June area), off SC (another traditional June area)...east of the Lesser Antilles? (Not likely, but it has happened!). And the Gulf is pretty unsettled, pressures low.
The expert 'everyone' is talking about is Jim Lushine of Miami NWS and his theory (which I have seen as a presentation several times now) is solid as far as it goes... dry May in S. Fl, hurricane hits there at relatively high frequency. Wet (above normal) May = NO S. Fl hits in recorded history.
Adding to the mix: La Nada years (like last yr and this yr) tend to be the years where Florida takes the most hits and the strongest ones.
Having said that...we have too little reliable history (years) to say for sure any of these empirical facts mean anythig for sure...just correlations so far, that could be 'proven by the exeption to the rule' at any time...but, that is not the way to 'bet'...or hedge your bets.
As for me: bought a super duper ladder, a chainsaw; generator tomorrow. Got a new storage shed and anchored it to 130 mph...so, you can guess what I think will happen....if not in this year, another year.
Be prepared! It's the only way to be in Florida for the next 20+ years (and always).
MM
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dem05
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The conversation has been interesting! I felt I had to jump in too. Everyone seems to be making some valid points on this topic. You just beat me to the punch on mentioning Jim Lushine, but I would like to mention some of the other facts that go into his research and might clear the air a bit.
Jim's reserach is far reaching and crdible. He has served the NWS for 33 years now. His research is what is attracting so much attention. It is probably getting even more attention now because he really brought it to the forefront previous to last season, when south florida had a very dry year. The premise behind the research is simpler than people realize. May is the focus of the research for two important reasons. First, being the month before the season starts, it is the best place to research climate and identify if there are climate precursors for the season. Second, it is a setup month for afternoon thunderstorms. For those who know about the mechanics of FLorida afternoon thunderstom formation, you will also know they form along the seabreeze front. As the evening approaches, the sea breeze weakens and allows thunderstorms to drift toward the coast. If the Bermuda High is stronger, it can be observed that these afternoon storms really can't make their way to the coast in the Miami area and they will typically drift inland. That's where the causal link truely rests.
With that said, there has been mention of midlattitude systems and hurricanes that make landfall in wetter years. Remeber, stronger systems can produce that one, two, or three time event that brings the whole month to average. Those are times that individuals need to look at the overall picture. Nothing in our atmosphere is truely static, any scientist would tell you there's a caveat to everything.
I have saw the gentleman present on this topic just overr a year ago, I am trying to locate any papers he has written on this particular topic now. More and more, I am finding that he has made a lot of contributions to the field of meteorology through my google search.
Either way you wish to read the research. Bottom line... We live in Florida and we should be prepared no matter what!
Edited by dem05 (Wed Jun 01 2005 11:45 PM)
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Keith234
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Quote:
Keith234 -- actually, El Nino events bring about enhanced rainfall to Florida. La Nina events are very, very dry here -- such as we saw in 1998 and 1999 with the vast expanses of burning forest land. Precipitation distributions with El Nino vs. normal for the entire US: http://www.coaps.fsu.edu/papers/us_climate_enso_events/predjf.en.gif
It sort of runs in contrast to what the quotes from the article would suggest for such a scenario and thus forms part of why one needs to take such blanket statements with a grain of salt. The data fits his conclusion, but not why.
Yes, my mistake. El nino's enhance subtropical jet activity, which would obviously bring about more precip. I just remember 97' being offly dry when I went down for 2 weeks to Disney...
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"I became insane with horrible periods of sanity"
Edgar Allan Poe
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Terra
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Quote:
Those of you alive in the early 70's will remember that a LOT of climate scientists were trumpting the fact we were definately headed into a new "Ice Age"...now we are hearing nothing but "Global Warming is a known fact". If you make a wild enough claim, I can pretty much guarantee that you can find a scientist somewhere that will back it up!
I was born in the 70s, so I guess I missed all of the ice age propaganda, but who's to say that ice ages and global warming are not related? Climate change is a very complicated issue, full of many feedback mechanisms. One look at a historical plot of CO2 and temperature data (see attached) will show that if CO2 and temperature both rise 'high enough' feedback will kick in and cause a decrease in both. So, ice ages, global warming, it's all related.... You're right though... you can find reseachers and data to support several positions on any matter.... That's because the Earth is so damn complex!
Anyway, the reason I was originally going to post was to state that I received my first automatic email from the today... So, if you want to fill you inbox this season and not have to constantly go to the site, be sure to sign up today for automatical updates..... go to: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/signup.shtml
I agree with everyone else in that I'm looking for an active season, but no landfall! I love to look at sat images of well defined storms, but I can definitely do without the destruction. In fact, my 3 1/2 year old is scared to death about hurricanes.... I guess maybe he shouldn't watch documentaries on National Geographic that show houses falling down. During the bad rainstorm this weekend, he was worried that our house would get destroyed.... Not good at all!
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Terra Dassau Cahill
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danielw
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This may be a little off topic. And it's not meant to add to or detract from the rainfall theories being discussed.
Here's a little data to add to your questions.
I queried the May rainfall totals from the NWS offices on the FL Peninsula.
Rainfall totals for May 2005 vs May 2004,
and the departure from normal for the month of May
Location____May '05____May '04_____May'05 departure from Normal
Key West_____1.25"____ 0.83"______-2.23"
Marathon Key_3.20"_____0.74"______-2.52"
W Palm Bch___7.48"_____2.89"______+2.09"
Miami_________7.47"____2.45"______+1.95"
Ft Lauderdale__3.28"_____0.74"______-3.05"
Naples________1.46"_____0.64"______-2.75"
Daytona Bch___7.97"_____0.49"______+4.71"
Orlando_______4.57"_____1.91"______+0.83"
Melbourne_____4.09"_____0.99"______+0.15"
Vero Bch______4.80"_____0.09"______+1.00"
Ft Myers_______2.62"_____0.47"______-0.80"
Sarasota_______3.61"_____0.97"______+0.76"
Tampa_________3.61"_____1.44"______+0.76"
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/#
Edited by danielw (Thu Jun 02 2005 01:45 AM)
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