Rick on boat in Mobile
Weather Drama Guru
Reged:
Posts: 161
|
|
it looks like a storm to me...but it's mute...as far as real impact...just an end of the year numbers game...movement appears close to nw, which will give it more time to develop...if it meanders more northerly...which it's not...it's on a beeline path really...but if steering currents died...it would sit there. Lot of them do down there..
are the steering currents strong enough to push it inland?
|
HanKFranK
User
Reged:
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
|
|
nhc has upgraded the system to bret as of 8pm. new advisory indicates that the pressure has fallen to 1002mb and the forward speed has slowed to wnw at 5mph. the storm probably has 6-8hrs before landfall, so it may inch up to being a 50mph storm or so. slow movement should cause there to be locally extreme rains. nothing outside of what this region sees every 3-5 years, though.
that's two named storms in june. i have a feeling that july will match or exceed that count.
HF 0042z29june
|
Storm Cooper
User
Reged:
Posts: 1290
Loc: Panama City , FL
|
|
I just wonder how everyone voted in that poll question I put up a few days ago 
--------------------
Hurricane Season 2017 13/7/1
|
danielw
Moderator
Reged:
Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
|
|
Wanna go for three? Coop. HF. There are 48 hours left in June, Z Time.
I don't see any other 'Bear Watch' areas.
The new wave off the African coast has lost a great deal of punch since moving offshore.
|
Storm Cooper
User
Reged:
Posts: 1290
Loc: Panama City , FL
|
|
Give me 12-18 hours and I'll let ya' know I think I am done for June however!
--------------------
Hurricane Season 2017 13/7/1
|
HanKFranK
User
Reged:
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
|
|
no way. i don't see anything that can organize inside of 48hrs. now if you were to run the period to, say, the 4th...
eyeball those globals and their attitude towards the east atlantic wave. euro and both putting a tropical storm near the islands on july 5th on multiple runs is enough to grab my attention.
HF 0117z29june
|
Storm Cooper
User
Reged:
Posts: 1290
Loc: Panama City , FL
|
|
Hey, just trying to spice things up a bit
--------------------
Hurricane Season 2017 13/7/1
|
HanKFranK
User
Reged:
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
|
|
last recon fix has the pressure back up at 1005mb. that'll teach me to expect strengthening...
nah, actually stuff i said earlier is ok. should get a strong convective flare overnight as the diurnal stuff blinks out and the land breeze gets kicking. i'm still thinking it will max around 50mph/1000mb.
HF 0149z29june
|
danielw
Moderator
Reged:
Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
|
|
Last fix is not indicating a center, or eye, as before.
Looks like a pocket of drier air has intruded. Rel Humidity dropped to 79% inside the center. First fix had RH of around 97%. With a closed 'center' 3 miles diameter.
Storm machine not in high gear.
|
EMS
Weather Hobbyist
Reged:
Posts: 55
Loc: St. Petersburg, Florida
|
|
Probably too far south to develop, but seems like it could be close to TD status.
|
Colleen A.
Moderator
Reged:
Posts: 1432
Loc: Florida
|
|
I voted "yes" in your poll. I'm not sure if I want to vote on any more systems forming, LOL!
We're getting soaked here...my feet are turning into flippers. They just issued a River Flood Warning for the Peace River in Bartow.
Katie...thanks for letting me know about Phil. I get worried when one of my kids are missing! 
--------------------
You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
|
teal61
Weather Hobbyist
Reged:
Posts: 61
Loc: Spring, TX (30.1N 95.5W)
|
|
It seems possible that the dropsonde missed the center on the last fix. Also the last fix position was a little NE of the previous one so its also possible that Bret is nearly stationary although looking at sat loops it seems to be moving wnw maybe with a little more north component that earlier today.
|
RedingtonBeachGuy
Moderator
Reged:
Posts: 342
Loc: St. Cloud, FL
|
|
Colleen.. did I not just say the other day that central florida seemed to feel like the start of Charlie last year? Now we have a TS in the Gulf?
Weird..
I said the same thing a week before 91L went up the Gulf..
http://flhurricane.com/cyclone/showflat....;gonew=1#UNREAD
I think I am going to stop saying that this year.. nobody ever listens to me but the hurricane maker.
|
danielw
Moderator
Reged:
Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
|
|
Even more weird weather.
Gulfport, MS is reporting over 3.40 inches of rain between 1 AM CDT and 4:23 AM CDT.
With heavy rain still falling.
The Jackson, MS and New Orleans, LA NWS offices are reporting that a weak surface low has formed in the Chandelier Island chain, just southwest of Gulfport and east of New Orleans.
The surface low is nearly stationary. Allowing thunderstorms and heavy rains to train over the same areas.
Seems like the predicted a low in that area
|
Tazmanian93
Weather Master
Reged:
Posts: 495
Loc: Tampa
|
|
I voted yes, I even complimented you a day or two ago regarding your timing
--------------------
Don't knock the weather; nine-tenths of the people couldn't start a conversation if it didn't change once in a while.
Go Bucs!!!!!!!!!
****************
Ed
|
Big Tk
Unregistered
|
|
Take a look at what's developing out in the tropical Atlantic. Several models are indicating a strong tropical system approaching Puerto Rico in the next 5 -7 days
|
Cocoa Beach
Unregistered
|
|
I was watching the wave approaching 60 W yesterday.
Today Barbados has pressure dropping and winds picking up.
http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/TBPB.html
Wind from the ESE (110 degrees) at 23 MPH (20 KT)
Visibility 4 mile(s)
Sky conditions mostly cloudy
Weather Cumulonimbus clouds observed
Temperature 82 F (28 C)
Dew Point 77 F (25 C)
Relative Humidity 83%
Pressure (altimeter) 29.88 in. Hg (1012 hPa)
Looking Forward:
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42058
Station 42058 - Central Caribbean
shows winds up as well.
Wind Direction (WDIR): E ( 100 deg true )
Wind Speed (WSPD): 23.3 kts
Wind Gust (GST): 27.2 kts
Wave Height (WVHT): 7.2 ft
Dominant Wave Period (DPD): 8 sec
Average Period (APD): 5.1 sec
Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 29.87 in
Pressure Tendency (PTDY): +0.01 in ( Steady )
Air Temperature (ATMP): 83.8 °F
Water Temperature (WTMP): 83.8 °F
|
Katie
Weather Guru
Reged:
Posts: 167
Loc: Winter Haven, FL
|
|
wow, we got some serious rain last night!
It was a river down the road. You could see the current and everything. Amazing how in just a short span of time, you can swim in your lawn.
Colleen, I have to agree with you about last year and this year feelings. Only thing different is it seems like we are wetter this year than were last year at this time. Which if we have another active season, I don't know what South East Polk County is going to do. Crooked Lake is already closing in on Hwy 27 which I remember being able to walk across most of that lake when I was younger so to see it up that high is quite frankly a little scary.
And who needs TV personalities to tell us the weather, I have it about down. Just dry my hair walk out side, if it curls - we are going to have a wet day, it it stays straight for more than an hour - we are good to go with warm, dry air. Girls, you feel me?
|
Lysis-in-Texas
Unregistered
|
|
Katie, it isn't weird. Just deep tropical moisture and allot of sun. Both the peace river, and the matatee river are forcast or allready above flood stage…and this really isn’t the place for this.
|
Lysis-in-Texas
Unregistered
|
|
Brett has been downgraded to a tropical depression:
AT 10 AM CDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION BRET WAS
LOCATED BY SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM MEXICO NEAR LATITUDE 21.0
NORTH...LONGITUDE 97.6 WEST OR ABOUT 15 MILES... 20 KM...WEST OF
TUXPAN MEXICO.
THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH
...13 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO BRING THE CENTER OF
BRET FARTHER INLAND.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 35 MPH...55
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS...MAINLY OVER WATER. BRET WILL LIKELY
DISSIPATE IN A DAY OR SO.
|
Previous
Index
Next
Threaded
Edit
Reply
Quote
