Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged:
Posts: 1299
|
|
things have certainly cranked up now at 5:07... looking at radar we appear to be in the north part of "eye" wall, if it had one.... tide looks about 3-4 ft above normal, but hard to tell its raining and blowing so hard outside right now... definitely TS conditions... center looks to be heading towards either Biloxi or OS.... no damage noted to date but a few small limbs down, this is by far the worst we've seen in Biloxi..
|
danielw
Moderator
Reged:
Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
|
|
Currently (0900Z Advisory), the . Followed by the UKMET. Then the official track. To the west of the track are 4 other models.
In order from east to west.
A98E
LBAR
BAMD
BAMM
So two east of the Official track and 4 west of the track. And with over 120 hours to go the odds are 50/ 50 roughly.
http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weather/plots/storm_04.gif
|
Tarmo Tanilsoo
Registered User
Reged:
Posts: 1
Loc: Laguja, Estonia
|
|
Poor people in Alabama! Looks that they have again a hurricane. They had in June, Cindy is hitting AL currently and now, is threatening them. At least I don't have to save any new bookmarks when I start virtual chase. Hmm, Sun rises pretty soon in Mobile, AL. Going to check local webcam...
--------------------
With best wishes,
Tarmo Tanilsoo
|
Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged:
Posts: 1299
|
|
just got back from the beach... tide looks to be 5-6 ft above normal... there is a 4X4 beam with a sign on it at the end of a drainage pipe in from of my house at the edge of the water, I can shoot a beam of light from the sea wall and it lights up like a firecracker... I've measured the top of the sign to be 6 ft above normal sea level... right now the surge is about a foot below it but it has about 2 ft waves breaking over it... a pretty decent surge for a TS I would imagine... was not blowing hard at all nor very windy... I think perhaps were in the center at the moment..
|
rmbjoe1954
Weather Master
Reged:
Posts: 427
Loc: Port Saint Lucie, Florida, USA
|
|
Both the and UKMET models were last run 8PM yesterday. I look forward to seeing the latest runs tonight.
--------------------
________2023 Forecast: 20/10/5________
There is little chance that meteorologists can solve the mysteries of weather until they gain an understanding of the mutual attraction of rain and weekends. ~Arnot Sheppard
|
doug
Weather Analyst
Reged:
Posts: 1006
Loc: parrish,fl
|
|
120 hours to go and 50/50 is right on! The factors now are Cindy as she moves NE across to the Atl. and the trough. One discussion has observed a 'disturbance' is forecast to develop in the Eastern US and could have an impact on the Ridge causing it to weaken on the NW quardrant and allow to move more east.
Several days ago Bastardi referenced an Elena like scenario developing ...I awoke with that in mind..
Tomorrow is the key forecast day in my opinion.
--------------------
doug
Edited by doug (Wed Jul 06 2005 11:05 AM)
|
rmbjoe1954
Weather Master
Reged:
Posts: 427
Loc: Port Saint Lucie, Florida, USA
|
|
Thursday the numbers carry higher credibility. Now is the time to assess resources- tomorrow is the time to stock up for some of our GOM/(or East coast) neighbors.
--------------------
________2023 Forecast: 20/10/5________
There is little chance that meteorologists can solve the mysteries of weather until they gain an understanding of the mutual attraction of rain and weekends. ~Arnot Sheppard
|
ticka1
Weather Hobbyist
Reged:
Posts: 54
Loc: Southeast Texas
|
|
I am here in Baytown, Texas - east of Houston - husband just left for work and he said he saw a line of Reliant Energy trucks with lights flashing heading East on Interstate 10. I'm sure they hare headed to LA/MS/AL to help out in that region affected by Cindy.
Looks like might be going to the same area after looking at the 5 day forecast track. I guess it depends on what the High Pressure does.
--------------------
Join www.wildonweather.com/forum Message Board
|
Cocoa Beach
Unregistered
|
|
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float2-vis-loop.html
It looks as if is taking a Westerly Jog?
It looks as if the center of circulation is drifting outside of the forcast points.
Does anyone else see this?
|
StormHound
Weather Guru
Reged:
Posts: 187
Loc: Orlando, FL
|
|
Thanks, Frank P, for the updates. I think we'll find that Cindy was a hurricane just before landfall. I hope those in your area took enough precautions to be safe. No need for you to take down the window panels when Cindy is gone, I'm afraid.
--------------------
Storm Hound
Computer Geek
|
GLT
Unregistered
|
|
Hello, I'm back. Sadly so. Kind of a love/hate thing. This board helped a lot last year just talking about things. Dock just rebuilt. New rooof is 2 weeks old. (Only partially hurricane damage from Charlie on both - mostly they were just old.)
Did I read this right: http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200504_model.html
Says 118 MPH sustained in 72 hrs? Bye bye gulf oil and gas?
Thanks again,
GLT
|
ftlaudbob
Storm Chaser
Reged:
Posts: 828
Loc: Valladolid,Mx
|
|
If the high moves just a little more east,All of Florida will be under the gun.If the high stays right where it is the east coast of Florida will be spared.New forcast track will be out around 11:00am.Still a wait and see.Interesting that they put out watches for the eastern part of Cuba,could this be a hint that they are going to shift the track east at 11:00?
--------------------
Survived: 10 hurricanes in Rhode Island,Florida and the Yucatan of Mexico .
|
Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged:
Posts: 1299
|
|
Not much damage reported, a few trees down, a few power lines down, surge flooded some low lying areas of hwy 90, which always happens, disrupts traffic flow but thats about it... so far so good...
good advice stormhound, they're staying put for a while.... not sure what if any effect will have on our area but at the moment I'm leaning towards another panhandle event... which would be so unfortunate for them... still to early to call of course but where ever it goes I just want to be on the west side.... and I think we will in Biloxi, or maybe its just wishful thinking... now all eyes will focus on
|
rmbjoe1954
Weather Master
Reged:
Posts: 427
Loc: Port Saint Lucie, Florida, USA
|
|
I an interested in learning about the high pressure system anchored off east Florida. I wonder if JB (Accuweather) has any input today on where it will be 24 hrs/48 hrs/120 hrs from now??
--------------------
________2023 Forecast: 20/10/5________
There is little chance that meteorologists can solve the mysteries of weather until they gain an understanding of the mutual attraction of rain and weekends. ~Arnot Sheppard
|
Tazmanian93
Weather Master
Reged:
Posts: 495
Loc: Tampa
|
|
Yesterday, have not checked today, the Canadian Models had that high backing off about 5-10 degrees
--------------------
Don't knock the weather; nine-tenths of the people couldn't start a conversation if it didn't change once in a while.
Go Bucs!!!!!!!!!
****************
Ed
|
MadDog
Weather Hobbyist
Reged:
Posts: 51
Loc: DeBary, Florida
|
|
Frank, when will we know what the top sustained wind speeds for Cindy were? Whether she became a hurricane or not? I'm also interested in how well the area did. Family there.
I am also interested in as my husband is out of the country and I am supposed to be leaving my children in DeBary for Sat/Sun/Mon while I go to Georgia -- but if there is any chance this thing may turn, I'll need to cancel. 
|
ftlaudbob
Storm Chaser
Reged:
Posts: 828
Loc: Valladolid,Mx
|
|
Taz go check!!!That high is a huge factor in the track for my area.Anyway looks like will be a major hurricane were ever he ends up.Thursday and Friday are the days I think we can get a grip on this one.
--------------------
Survived: 10 hurricanes in Rhode Island,Florida and the Yucatan of Mexico .
|
Rick on boat in Mobile
Weather Drama Guru
Reged:
Posts: 161
|
|
Flooded all the walkways at the Marina...I had to wade carefully through them this morning.
A LOT more powerful than I thought. New respect for "just" a tropical storm...
Kept me up most of the night rocking and rolling the boat....eery...and yet beautiful...everything balmy, windy....stormy...We're having heavy rain and gusts in Mobile right now...no let up...power out at 3:30 this morning...
as for ....sigh...i suppose it's time to get ready for another one...shouldn't this be late september?....
I'll post my usual category 5 hitting Mobile, I guess...getting old....isn't it. A lott of the houses in Pensacola...still need roofs...and debris is still sitting along the coast...
tighten up Gulf Coast...here's another one!
|
CDM - Orlando
Unregistered
|
|
This may be a problem for FL
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT WED JUL 06 2005
.........ATLANTIC OCEAN...
REMAINDER OF THE ATLC IS RATHER QUITE WITH A MID/UPPER RIDGE
EXTENDING FROM THE GULF COVERING THE W ATLC W OF 67W WITH A
WEAKENING 1019 MB SURFACE HIGH LOCATED NEAR 28N73W.
|
doug
Weather Analyst
Reged:
Posts: 1006
Loc: parrish,fl
|
|
that High does not have to fluctuate all that much on a global scale to have a huge difference in course and effect...only 100 NM or so would do it...As I said on a global map that is only a couple of millemeters.
When we see a zone of error in these forcast tracks we see a couple of hundred miles...but when considered in relationship to the entire globe's weather, that is really pretty precise.
--------------------
doug
|
Previous
Index
Next
Threaded
Edit
Reply
Quote
