GuppieGrouper
Weather Master
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Posts: 596
Loc: Polk County, Florida
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If the trailer is tied down well. She is as safe there as she usually is in a Florida Thunderstorm. Check the news early tomorrow morning around 8 AM for an update of storm location.
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God commands. Laymen guess. Scientists record.
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h2ocean
Weather Hobbyist
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Posts: 91
Loc: South Merritt Island, FL
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There is now a westward jog last few frames on radar and IR. That is good news for the Keys. Looks like it should stay west of Key West (though it will certainly be windy).
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Merritt Island, FL Home Weather Station
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stormchazer
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 315
Loc: Central Florida
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I hear a lot of concerns from folks like me in Central and South Florida and they are valid. The situation right now looks positive for these areas as far as any serious weather so lets not get ulcers. Be vigilant and stay up-to-date here and at the site on whats happening.
You also might say a little prayer for our friends in the Panhandle and points west. My sister lives on the Coast in Gulfport, MS and others on the board here are under the gun.
As many have said here, be prepared, but be cool.
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Jara
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Brett
Weather Watcher
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Posts: 41
Loc: Miami, Florida
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Agreed. Let's all remember what we are dealing with here, and that no one...no one...wants anything like this to hit them dead on. We have to feel for those in Cuba, and those on the Gulf coast. Seems to me the has been pretty dead on with this one. It will be interesting to see where he comes off Cuba, and what happens with his forward speed.
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South Florida
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OrlandoDan
Weather Master
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Posts: 443
Loc: Longwood, FL
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Agreed. I have been through all three last year in Central Florida. As long as this bad-boy stays on its projected path, and we stay vigilant to the tornadoes that are most common in the NE quad 100-250 miles from the storm, we should all be just fine.
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OrlandoDan
Weather Master
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Posts: 443
Loc: Longwood, FL
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Sooooo...does one of the experts want to offer an opinion on the projected path?
Personally, my interpretation is that the main factor that could throw off the model guidance and the official path is the land mass of Cuba. I understand, however, that the models have gotten a little better at accounting for land masses.
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pcola
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 344
Loc: pensacola/gulf breeze
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I have a question. What is it with Jamaica? turned left and went around ir, turned left and went around it, and went right and around it. Tpography, luck, VooDoo???????
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Erin 95 , Opal 95, Ivan 04, Dennis 05, and that's enough!!!!
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AndyG
Weather Watcher
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Posts: 35
Loc: Bradenton, FL
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Not that we here on the West Coast are clear, but with all the info so far, I want to tell everyone in the current forecast path that my family will be hoping that they all make it through this safely!
I also want to thank everyone for all the valuable information that is shared here. It's a truly great resource.
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OrlandoDan
Weather Master
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Posts: 443
Loc: Longwood, FL
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Just saw Dr. Steve. He pointed out that has taken a westerly jog over the land mass of Cuba. He oferred the obvious that it wasn't good for Fidel's place (Havanna), but it was good for weakening the storm.
Seriously.: I pray for the people of Cuba and hope this does not knock Havanna out. (my polital views are breaking out)
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AndyG
Weather Watcher
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Posts: 35
Loc: Bradenton, FL
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I would also like to know everyone's opinion of possibly boarding some (maybe south and west facing) windows up for possible tropical storm force winds just South of Tampa.
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SeeSaw99
Registered User
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Posts: 9
Loc: Tempe, AZ
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Any chance this more westward jog will weaken much more significantly than if he had gone more north? Say to a strong Cat. 1 or a weak Cat. 2?
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Keith234
Storm Chaser
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Posts: 921
Loc: 40.7N/73.3W Long Island
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That would be a topography effect the storm has the structure of the hurricane. It can be explained like a wheel cocked more to the left to prevent torque from turning it to the right. The topography weakens the storm in a certain quadarant, and the excessive wind or energy is driven away from the island, thus moving the storm away. If anyone can explain this better- be my guest. JB did a map disco on it, and it seems to have been battle proven-so to speak.
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"I became insane with horrible periods of sanity"
Edgar Allan Poe
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OrlandoDan
Weather Master
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Posts: 443
Loc: Longwood, FL
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Quote:
That would be a topography effect the storm has the structure of the hurricane. It can be explained like a wheel cocked more to the left to prevent torque from turning it to the right. The topography weakens the storm in a certain quadarant, and the excessive wind or energy is driven away from the island, thus moving the storm away. If anyone can explain this better- be my guest. JB did a map disco on it, and it seems to have been battle proven-so to speak.
Makes sense. Also, the entire weakening stage causes the hurricane to lose its tightely wound inner circle. You may see some expanding of severe weather in the next few hours from inside the eye to more miles outside of the center.
I am no expert, but from tracking storms for many years, learning from Mets, and from being on this great board (which I just lurked for many years - remember the days of the constant crashes and ugly interface), I have learned a few things.
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Steve H1
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 309
Loc: Palm Bay FL USA
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Finally got registered. I believe has now started that jog to the NW again. The westward movement (WNW) has ceased, and I don't think he'll make Havana. He may get closer to the peninsula and be stronger than many think. His sat presentation is still great even with being land. He should emerge in a couple of hours and crank right up. Cheers!!
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Keith234
Storm Chaser
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Posts: 921
Loc: 40.7N/73.3W Long Island
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I remember I had asked a question once about the size of the storm in relation to the intensity. Basically storm size has no determinable affect on strength of storm. Alas the storm would lose the tightly wind gradient somewhat in the center, and lose some of it's density as you said.
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"I became insane with horrible periods of sanity"
Edgar Allan Poe
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h2ocean
Weather Hobbyist
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Posts: 91
Loc: South Merritt Island, FL
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Agree...that was just a few frames worth of a westward jog. It is back to NW again. Should regain some strength. We have a wind advisory here tomorrow but it shouldn't be too bad. If anyone is interested, I have a home weather station with an anemometer on the roof (located in Brevard County - EC FL). Here is the link...(http://home.cfl.rr.com/h2ocean/weather.html)
I just got my hurricane shutter mounting changed to panelmates from the lead anchors - learned my lesson last year. This will cut my time in half to put up the panels and they are MUCH stronger. I had several lead anchors pull out last year.
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Merritt Island, FL Home Weather Station
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Kevin
Weather Master
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Posts: 524
Loc: EC Florida
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Agree with those who are talking about the recent movement more to the NW...I have been watching Key West radar (long range), and I see the same thing. The track looks pretty good at this point. Still, must be watched carefully through the night.
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Big Red Machine
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 223
Loc: Polk City, FL
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Long time lurker, first time poster....
18z and are certainly intriguing. Keeping in mind the models daytime-west, nightime-east pattern, these tracks bringing slightly closer to Florida's WC and are definitely something to keep an eye on.
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MichaelA
Weather Analyst
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Posts: 944
Loc: Pinellas Park, FL
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Quote:
Agree...that was just a few frames worth of a westward jog. It is back to NW again. Should regain some strength. We have a wind advisory here tomorrow but it shouldn't be too bad. If anyone is interested, I have a home weather station with an anemometer on the roof (located in Brevard County - EC FL). Here is the link...(http://home.cfl.rr.com/h2ocean/weather.html)
I just got my hurricane shutter mounting changed to panelmates from the lead anchors - learned my lesson last year. This will cut my time in half to put up the panels and they are MUCH stronger. I had several lead anchors pull out last year.
Tapcons. Not likely to get pulled out. 
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Michael
PWS
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Keith234
Storm Chaser
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Posts: 921
Loc: 40.7N/73.3W Long Island
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Also been watching key west radar, and can verify movement in a wnw fashion. Those storms that 's massive circulation is pulling in from Georgia downward are packing a punch, I'm surprised how vast of an area this storm can cover. This is will eventually circulate to the front side of the storm, and convection on the leading side of a storm (motion wise) is never good; especially after re-entering water. Gaston did that last year after re-developing off of the delmarva, and it wasn't fun out east on LI.
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"I became insane with horrible periods of sanity"
Edgar Allan Poe
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