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Tropical Storm Ana Moving Away From Main Hawaiian Islands. Watching Invest 93L in Southern Gulf of Mexico.
Number of days since last Hurricane Landfall in US: 108 (Arthur) , in Florida: 3283 (8 y 11 m) (Wilma)
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Archives >> 2005 News Talkbacks

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Clark
Meteorologist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1710
Loc: Great Lakes 45.95N 84.55W
Franklin Reintensifies, 92L Bears Watching
      #45858 - Thu Jul 28 2005 05:53 PM

Tropical Storm Franklin, having survived strong shear over the past few days while it hung out near Bermuda, has begun to reintensify as it accelerates to the north and east, hopefully out to sea. It's got an outside shot at hurricane intensity in the next day or so, but should become extratropical shortly thereafter.



Meanwhile, 92L continues to spawn convection, primarily on its northern periphery. It's likely to head west or west-northwest in the general direction of the Bahamas over the next few days, with some modest development possible. It certainly bears watching, particularly given the improved organization and scheduled recon mission to the disturbance scheduled for tomorrow afternoon. Any potential US impact is a week down the line and it is way too early to say where, if anyone, will be affected by this disturbance.

More as events unfold...


Event Related Links
Melbourne, FL Long Range Radar Loop
StormCarib hurricane reports from observers in the Islands
Caribbean Island Weather Reports

Color Sat of Gulf
RAMSDIS high speed visible Floater of Storms

Tropical Storm Franklin
Floater Vis/IR Loop of Franklin with Storm Path Overlay
Animated Model Plot of Franklin
Model Plot of Franklin (Graphic from the South Florida Water Management District)
Franklin Spaghetti Model from boatus
Weather Underground Model Plots for Franklin

Wave in East Atlantic (Aka 92L)
Animated Model Plot of Wave in Central Atlantic (92L)
Model Plot of Wave in Central Atlantic (92L) (Graphic from the South Florida Water Management District)
San Juan, PR Radar Loop


Wave in Even Further East Atlantic (Aka 93L)
Animated Model Plot of Wave in East Atlantic (93L)
Model Plot of Wave in East Atlantic (93L) (Graphic from the South Florida Water Management District)


Edited by MikeC (Sat Jul 30 2005 08:15 AM)


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Rabbit
Weather Master


Reged: Sat
Posts: 511
Loc: Central Florida
Re: Franklin Reintensifies, 92L Bears Watching [Re: Clark]
      #45862 - Thu Jul 28 2005 05:57 PM

there seems to be something that several models are picking up on and developing into a strong storm or hurricane at 96 hrs, as well as something dropping into the Gulf in 72hrs and forming a tropical system

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HURRICANELONNY
Weather Guru


Reged: Sat
Posts: 100
Loc: HOLLYWOOD,FL.
Re: Franklin Reintensifies, 92L Bears Watching [Re: Rabbit]
      #45864 - Thu Jul 28 2005 06:10 PM

Here in S Fl. some of the local mets keep saying we will get some effects this weekend from 92L. It's broad 1014mb low is centered around 16n 56w. Now I'm about at 26n 80w. How in the heck is 92L no matter what form(Harvey) becomes, is going to effect S. Fl by this weekend. I'd say tuesday at best.If it doesn't slow down. Don't they use a calculator at the NWS??

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Big Red Machine
Storm Tracker


Reged: Fri
Posts: 223
Loc: Polk City, FL
Re: Franklin Reintensifies, 92L Bears Watching [Re: HURRICANELONNY]
      #45865 - Thu Jul 28 2005 06:20 PM

Clark, depending on the ridging, do you think there's a chance this storm could follow a similar path to the 1935 Labor Day Hurricane?

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Clark
Meteorologist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1710
Loc: Great Lakes 45.95N 84.55W
Re: Franklin Reintensifies, 92L Bears Watching [Re: Big Red Machine]
      #45866 - Thu Jul 28 2005 06:39 PM

Big Red Machine -- no idea. It could pull a Georges and hit every island, it could recurve harmless out to sea, or it could affect anywhere in between. It's too early to tell. Models suggest a more westward motion, but any impact to the US is over 5 days away.

LONNY -- yeah, they do, but speeds change with the evolution of the system and the midlatitude regime. Tropical systems moving fast trend faster than the guidance; those moving slow tend slower than the guidance...however, there is no hard & set guideline to that effect, as each storm is different.

--------------------
Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)


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Storm Cooper
Moderator


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1284
Loc: Panama City Beach, FL 30.22N 85.86W
Re: Franklin Reintensifies, 92L Bears Watching [Re: Clark]
      #45867 - Thu Jul 28 2005 06:57 PM

Part of the AFD from Tally....

.LONG TERM (MON-THU)...
THE 06 UTC GFS AND 00 UTC ECMWF ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT IN
TAKING THE DEEP LAYER TROUGH AND ABUNDANT MOISTURE OVER OUR AREA
NORTHWARD AND WEAKENING IT, AS A DEEP LAYER RIDGE BUILDS OVER OUR
AREA. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN POPS RETURNING TO CLIMATOLOGY (WHICH IS
ABOUT 40 PERCENT FROM 12 TO 24 UTC THIS TIME OF YEAR), AND NEAR-
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT A STRONG TROPICAL WAVE
CURRENTLY 550 MILES EAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS WILL
INTENSIFY AND HAVE SOME IMPACT ON OUR AREA LATE NEXT WEEK, BUT IT IS
TOO EARLY TO TELL SINCE IT COULD TURN NORTHWARD EAST OF FLORIDA IF
THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE DOES NOT BUILD AS STRONGLY AS SUGGESTED BY
THE GFS.

Interesting...

--------------------
Hurricane Season 2012 11/5/2


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GuppieGrouper
Weather Master


Reged: Fri
Posts: 596
Loc: Polk County, Florida
Re: Franklin Reintensifies, 92L Bears Watching [Re: Clark]
      #45868 - Thu Jul 28 2005 06:58 PM

I am a critter watcher and I can tell you that I wonder if the report of the 13 yr old girl being bitten by a shark at Daytona while she was wading this week, could be pointing to general location of next Us landfalling system. I noticed that hurricanes have effected areas already this year where shark bites were encountered. Now the general area I am thinking of would be between Vero Beach and Jacksonville. Just as Dennis effected the area between Penasacola and Fort Walton Beach shortly after some one was attacked by a shark in the general area. My theory holds that sharks are instinctively looking for calmer water to feed and that this chases the sharks closer to the shoreline where small feeder fish are. The thing that drives the fish to feed is the same thing that causes fish to bite in fresh water, the change of barametric pressures. When a preliminary low begins to form, the pressures interact significantly with surrounding pressures. I think critters in general sense this long before humans and computers.

--------------------
God commands. Laymen guess. Scientists record.


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52255225
Weather Guru


Reged: Wed
Posts: 163
Loc: parrish fl
Re: Franklin Reintensifies, 92L Bears Watching [Re: GuppieGrouper]
      #45869 - Thu Jul 28 2005 07:00 PM

http://www.keyshistory.org/hurr35chart.jpg

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GuppieGrouper
Weather Master


Reged: Fri
Posts: 596
Loc: Polk County, Florida
Re: Franklin Reintensifies, 92L Bears Watching [Re: 52255225]
      #45870 - Thu Jul 28 2005 07:04 PM

Lets not do that one again, OK? That would really be a lot of money to try to put back together today.

--------------------
God commands. Laymen guess. Scientists record.


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52255225
Weather Guru


Reged: Wed
Posts: 163
Loc: parrish fl
Re: Franklin Reintensifies, 92L Bears Watching [Re: GuppieGrouper]
      #45871 - Thu Jul 28 2005 07:08 PM

Im sorry i dont quite understand? alot of money to put what back together? do you mean a major keys hit? I just thought the old map path was cool.

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Steve H1
Storm Tracker


Reged: Fri
Posts: 289
Loc: Palm Bay FL USA
Re: Franklin Reintensifies, 92L Bears Watching [Re: Clark]
      #45872 - Thu Jul 28 2005 07:14 PM

I guess I have a problem in, at least in the short term, with 92L getting its act together. There is an ULL moving southward that appears on a train wreck course with our 92L. Maybe this is why many models aren't going for much development. It (the ULL) would have to continue to move SSW or just fill in order to give 92L a chance to develop before it gets near Florida's latitude. Does anyone else see this as a big speed bump for our invest?

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GuppieGrouper
Weather Master


Reged: Fri
Posts: 596
Loc: Polk County, Florida
Re: Franklin Reintensifies, 92L Bears Watching [Re: 52255225]
      #45873 - Thu Jul 28 2005 07:35 PM

I was really saying that I hope that history does not repeat itself as that 1935 tack would cause much more expensive damage today than it did in 1935.

--------------------
God commands. Laymen guess. Scientists record.


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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA 30.00N 90.14W
Re: Franklin Reintensifies, 92L Bears Watching [Re: GuppieGrouper]
      #45874 - Thu Jul 28 2005 08:11 PM

Yikes. My whole house just shook as a booming (2 second delay) clap of thunder just set off some alarms in the neighborhood. That sucka was loud. This is part of the energy that today's 00Z models progged to develop over the MS/LA coast in 48-72ish hours. Still can't tell whether the inverted trof ends up as a closed ULL, something at the mid-levels or at the surface, but different models are handling it differently - from taking a closed low toward the Upper Texas Coast to sending a near-hurricane into E AL/NW FL. We'll have to wait and see whether there is any homebrew this weekend.

Steve

--------------------
MF'n Super Bowl Champions


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Clark
Meteorologist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1710
Loc: Great Lakes 45.95N 84.55W
Re: Franklin Reintensifies, 92L Bears Watching [Re: Steve H1]
      #45875 - Thu Jul 28 2005 08:18 PM

Steve H1 -- it's certainly something that could complicate things. The models differ on how fast they move the feature out to the NW (and then weakening it and shuttling the remainder of the energy associated with the feature out in the midlatitudes), with the GFS doing so rather rapidly and the NOGAPS doing so much more slowly. It is far enough away right now to potentially be enhancing the convection on the north side of the feature (via diffluent flow at upper levels), but not so far away (or moving such) to keep form playing a role. How it evolves may determine how rapidly, if at all, 92L gets going.

--------------------
Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)


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Brad in Miami
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 365
Re: Franklin Reintensifies, 92L Bears Watching [Re: GuppieGrouper]
      #45876 - Thu Jul 28 2005 08:29 PM

Guppie:

Re: the shark theory: A large percentage of every year's worldwide shark bites (msome years I believe it's more than, or close to, 50% of the worldwide total) occur in the summer in Volusia County, Florida, in and around Daytona Beach. A lot of factors contribute to this (the number of people in the water, the temperature, the rough surf, the proximity of the gulf stream, the presence of bait fish, etc.), but if your theory were correct, then many hurricanes every year would go towards Volusia County. Perhaps unfortunately, every few years the press highlights stories of these bites (most are treatable at shore or with a few stitches - accidental bites by sharks, often baby nurse sharks, looking for food, not humans, and mistakenly biting people who happen to be in the vicinity of their food) and many people interpret it to mean there has been an extraordinary number of bites in general, and an even more extraordinary number in that area. But also unfortunately, having a lot of shark bites in Volusia County in the summer is basically normal.

Interesting theory, and I'm not one to judge if it has merit generally, but I don't think the Daytona bites can be viewed as an abnormality.


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MichaelA
Weather Analyst


Reged: Thu
Posts: 819
Loc: Pinellas Park, FL 27.83N 82.69W
Re: Franklin Reintensifies, 92L Bears Watching [Re: Clark]
      #45877 - Thu Jul 28 2005 08:29 PM

92L is now a special feature in the latest Trop Wx Discussion from NHC. Also, GOES Storm Floater 1 is now focusing on it.

--------------------
Michael
2014: 8/2/0
2014 Actual: 7/6/2

Edited by MichaelA (Thu Jul 28 2005 08:33 PM)


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Hurricane Fredrick 1979
Weather Guru


Reged: Sat
Posts: 115
Loc: Mobile,Alabama 30.77N 88.14W
Re: Franklin Reintensifies, 92L Bears Watching [Re: Steve]
      #45878 - Thu Jul 28 2005 08:45 PM

Quote:

Yikes. My whole house just shook as a booming (2 second delay) clap of thunder just set off some alarms in the neighborhood. That sucka was loud. This is part of the energy that today's 00Z models progged to develop over the MS/LA coast in 48-72ish hours. Still can't tell whether the inverted trof ends up as a closed ULL, something at the mid-levels or at the surface, but different models are handling it differently - from taking a closed low toward the Upper Texas Coast to sending a near-hurricane into E AL/NW FL. We'll have to wait and see whether there is any homebrew this weekend.

Steve



That's ok Steve its booming and lightning pretty hard ova here in Bama too.And I want to see what all the fuss is all about in the GOM within the next few days.


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Hootowl
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Thu
Posts: 77
Loc: New Port Richey, Fl 28.27N 82.65W
Re: Franklin Reintensifies, 92L Bears Watching [Re: GuppieGrouper]
      #45880 - Thu Jul 28 2005 09:01 PM

I hope history doesn't repeat itself either. Can you imagine the damage going up the west coast of Florida? As built up as Tampa and St. Pete is? Holy Cow!!!!

Your shark theory is very interesting. I have another critter story that might (or not) be relevant to the weather. We noticed last year the squirrels started "burying their treasure" in August. Now - I've been known to watch critters and birds all my life and I never saw a squirrel start burying stuff that early ever before. (normally in the autumn) Then we noticed they were knocking the pine cones out of the trees and stuffing themselves. The burying was before any storm was knocking on our door (by at least 2 weeks) but the pine cone thing was just right before we started to get bands from Francis. Who knows. I do know that yesterday they started knocking the pine cones down and last week I noticed they were burying stuff in the flower beds??? Maybe a connection - maybe not.

Stay safe, Hoot


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Heather
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Tue
Posts: 91
Loc: Sebring, FL
Re: Franklin Reintensifies, 92L Bears Watching [Re: Hootowl]
      #45882 - Thu Jul 28 2005 09:07 PM

Hmmm...another critter story. My parents have baby birds in their chimney every year. In the spring and they usually leave early summer. Last season they stayed til well into the fall. This year the birds are still there. Only twice has this happened in 12 years.

--------------------
When it rains, it pours...


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MichaelA
Weather Analyst


Reged: Thu
Posts: 819
Loc: Pinellas Park, FL 27.83N 82.69W
Re: Franklin Reintensifies, 92L Bears Watching [Re: Hootowl]
      #45883 - Thu Jul 28 2005 09:07 PM

The seeds in the pine cones could be just right for eating now. The squirrels around here are always burying and excavating their treasures.

--------------------
Michael
2014: 8/2/0
2014 Actual: 7/6/2


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