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96L near north coast of Hispaniola. 80% chance for development. Bahamas, Florida needs to watch closely.
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Archives >> 2005 News Talkbacks

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rmbjoe1954
Weather Master


Reged: Tue
Posts: 423
Loc: Port Saint Lucie, Florida, USA 27.37N 80.24W
Re: comments on the day [Re: Ron Basso]
      #46968 - Tue Aug 09 2005 08:51 AM

Assuming Irene will remain a TS (out 72 hours) I wonder if the BAM models would be accurate for tropical storms.

I still see this storm heading west-but I really haven;t seen much success with BAMS solutions this season.

--------------------
________2014 Forecast: 10/4/1________

There is little chance that meteorologists can solve the mysteries of weather until they gain an understanding of the mutual attraction of rain and weekends. ~Arnot Sheppard


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susieq
Weather Watcher


Reged: Fri
Posts: 49
Loc: Panhandle
Re: comments on the day [Re: rmbjoe1954]
      #46969 - Tue Aug 09 2005 09:14 AM

Is there any chance this Irene could make it into the Gulf?
about the same as the chance eminem will win at the country music awards. -HF

Edited by HanKFranK (Tue Aug 09 2005 09:29 AM)


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GuppieGrouper
Weather Master


Reged: Fri
Posts: 596
Loc: Polk County, Florida
Re: comments on the day [Re: susieq]
      #46971 - Tue Aug 09 2005 09:27 AM

The rule of thumb is be aware, until the storm has dissapated, gone past your lattitude/longitude/ or has made landfall far enough away that all you will get is rain. No one can say what a storm will do out at 53.6W except educated guesses. It is too far away to bother anyone. on the US mainland.

--------------------
God commands. Laymen guess. Scientists record.


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HanKFranK
User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC 33.56N 81.82W
activation [Re: GuppieGrouper]
      #46972 - Tue Aug 09 2005 09:41 AM

irene is plodding west this morning under a progressively weaker shear pattern. franklin did the disco this morning and he's always conservative, but irene should be upgraded later today. i'm kind of scracthing my head on the forecast track as it takes irene right through the center of a 500mb ridge axis. the globals that don't kill irene are stalling the center near bermuda then drifting it west in 4-5 days. notable that GFS builds a longwave ridge near the east coast going into next week... if irene is still under that it'll be paying a visit. i'm going to hold off on calling for recurvature anymore until i see the storm get through that first ridge... the track through it looks spurious... and the shortwave being progged to get irene isn't very substantial and isn't going to dig.
other features to eyeball... wave nearing 50w has all of its convection away from the axis. weak swirl trailing irene is becoming indistinct. weak low in the ne caribbean now south of d.r., under about 20kt of shear. signature is still apparent, but the shear should kill it today. two ITCZ clusters (one near 35-40w, another near 20w).. GFS likes neither, FSU MM5 likes both. convection is still largely inhibited in the eastern atlantic. home brew chances still very low as the weak low remains parked near the ga/al border with a trough axis dangling into the gulf... little convergence off the east coast. the shortwave moving by may trigger something, but it would be a coast-runner.
news on the pattern evolution is... upper trough in the western caribbean appears to be finally weakening, and the western part of the basin is becoming more favorable for development. the westpac is still active and after rising to near neutral SOI took another plunge... maybe a last gasp before MJO negative anomalies shift east at last. the eastpac has activated as evidenced by the depression NRL is tracking well southwest of the baja. timer usually works that the atlantic will respond in 6-10 days... august 15-20 timeframe in this case.
HF 1341z09august


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Reaper
Weather Watcher


Reged: Wed
Posts: 38
Loc: Lake Placid, Fla 27.34N 81.34W
Re: comments on the day [Re: susieq]
      #46973 - Tue Aug 09 2005 09:42 AM

LOL...The direction Country music has been headed lately, I would discount that possiblilty so easily...

On subject....Is that area of convection around 10N-50W part of the same wave as IRENE???


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B.C.Francis
Storm Tracker


Reged: Sat
Posts: 280
Loc: Indiatlantic Florida 28.12N 80.58W
Re: comments on the day [Re: GuppieGrouper]
      #46974 - Tue Aug 09 2005 09:49 AM

Interesting that the BAMM model RUN AT 8am, has it heading west and a little north of west heading close to the N Bahamas in 72 hours. What I`m wondering does it have chance and if no, what is going to pick it up and throw it out to the fish......Weatherchef......... web page

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Wxwatcher2
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
Posts: 337
Loc: 28.60N 81.35W
Re: comments on the day [Re: B.C.Francis]
      #46976 - Tue Aug 09 2005 10:08 AM

Still don't think IRENE is much of a threat to the U.S. but certainly the storm has stayed together well enought to reform and strengthen.
The more West it comes, the more attention IRENE will get.
Not time to run to the Home Depot just yet however.


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abyrd
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 61
Loc: apopka 28.67N 81.48W
Re: comments on the day [Re: zacros]
      #46977 - Tue Aug 09 2005 10:11 AM

Quote:

I'm on vacation (hanging around the house) and dying to go fishing with the family, but the unsettled weather is keeping us in port. Looks like decent surf will be in our future, especially if Irene can build. Let's just hope it actually curves.




No need to stay in port. Seas 2-3. Easy fishing weather.


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ftlaudbob
Storm Chaser


Reged: Tue
Posts: 757
Loc: Lauderdale-By- the- Sea,Fl 26.19N 80.10W
Re: comments on the day [Re: abyrd]
      #46978 - Tue Aug 09 2005 10:25 AM

I am more concerned today than yesterday about Irene.She looks much better,and if you follow the dots she is moving west.I have to bring up Andrew again,as far as the track goes.If it is to stay on the forcast track she will have to turn more north sometime tonight.There is no way I am taking my eye off this one.

--------------------

Survived:
Gloria,Bob,Katrina,Wilma and a bunch of tropical storms.


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FlaMommy
Storm Tracker


Reged: Fri
Posts: 225
Loc: Tampa(Riverview), Florida
Re: comments on the day [Re: ftlaudbob]
      #46979 - Tue Aug 09 2005 10:36 AM

Good Morning all....i was wondering about the wave in the Carribean, has anyone put their thoughts on that yet and if so where can i find that...thanks,becky

--------------------
"Haven't thought of a witty one lately"


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nl
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
Posts: 207
Loc: nsb,fl
Re: comments on the day [Re: FlaMommy]
      #46981 - Tue Aug 09 2005 10:41 AM

anyone have that bam model link?

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Ron Basso
Storm Tracker


Reged: Thu
Posts: 267
Loc: hernando beach, FL
Re: comments on the day [Re: ftlaudbob]
      #46982 - Tue Aug 09 2005 10:43 AM

Definitely better organized with convection over center and some slight banding features appearing. Still looks a little asymmetrical and the center looks to be on the west side of the CDO. Probably upgraded to a weak tropical storm today. I don't see any rapid deepening since there is still light northerly shear and a relatively dry atmosphere. Plenty warm SSTs though. On the track, if she gets stronger, than it'll probably follow the globals (UKMET & NOGAPS) which initialized her as a storm today. If she stays a weak TS, then the BAM solutions may be a better track. While she has been weak the last 2 days, the BAM models have outperformed the globals.



http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float2-vis-loop.html

--------------------
RJB

Edited by Ron Basso (Tue Aug 09 2005 10:48 AM)


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Ron Basso
Storm Tracker


Reged: Thu
Posts: 267
Loc: hernando beach, FL
Re: comments on the day [Re: nl]
      #46983 - Tue Aug 09 2005 10:45 AM

Quote:

anyone have that bam model link?




on the bottom of the CFHC homepage but here is the lastest run:

http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weather/plots/storm_09.gif

--------------------
RJB


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Ed in Va
Weather Master


Reged: Fri
Posts: 489
Loc: 36.02N 75.67W
Re: comments on the day [Re: Ron Basso]
      #46984 - Tue Aug 09 2005 10:53 AM

11:00 discussion...turn to west.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT3+shtml/082051.shtml

please do not post the discussions (in full) in the threads...if you wish to highlight certain portions of the discussion for emphasis, that is fine. Thanks!

--------------------
Survived Carol and Edna '54 in Maine. Guess this kind of dates me!

Edited by LI Phil (Tue Aug 09 2005 11:15 AM)


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Ryan
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
Posts: 281
Loc: Long Island, NY / Stuart, FL
The Facts on Irene *Killed -- Sent to Graveyard* [Re: Ed in Va]
      #46986 - Tue Aug 09 2005 11:14 AM

This post was sent to the Hurricane Graveyard

--------------------
2006 Atlantic Season Summary:
Bad, But Not AS Bad.

Life's a Storm, Watch Your Back


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Ron Basso
Storm Tracker


Reged: Thu
Posts: 267
Loc: hernando beach, FL
Re: comments on the day [Re: ftlaudbob]
      #46990 - Tue Aug 09 2005 11:18 AM

Quote:

I am more concerned today than yesterday about Irene.She looks much better,and if you follow the dots she is moving west.I have to bring up Andrew again,as far as the track goes.If it is to stay on the forcast track she will have to turn more north sometime tonight.There is no way I am taking my eye off this one.




Ftlaudbob, the scenario is trending toward the US east coast. It's still too far out to call, and this storm has proved unpredictable, but the global patterns are migrating toward a large ridge settng up over the eastern coast this weekend into early next week. If it verifies, it will force the storm west at some point (or continue it west). I noticed the BAM models show this in their latest runs. This is a somewhat similar pattern to what happened with Andrew, but let's not alarm anyone yet. This is a weak storm and NHC is not predicting more than TS status. From HPC this am on the building ridge:

THERE IS REASONABLE SUPPORT FROM THE D+8 MEAN FOR A MORE
PERSISTENT H5 RIDGE OVER THE E COAST THAN THE PREVIOUSLY PREFERRED
00Z GFS. THE 00Z NCEP ENS MEAN HAD SUPPORTED MORE RIDGING OVER
THE E COAST...AND NOW THE 06Z GFS AND DGEX ARE EVEN MORE
PRONOUNCED WITH THEIR RIDGING ON DAYS 6/MON AND 7/TUES THAN THE
00Z GFS. WITH A PERSISTENT RIDGE IN THE E...A LESS PROGRESSIVE
H5 TROF IS PREFERRED IN THE NWRN/N CNTRL CONUS THE SECOND HALF OF
THE PD COMPARED TO THE 00Z GFS.

--------------------
RJB


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B.C.Francis
Storm Tracker


Reged: Sat
Posts: 280
Loc: Indiatlantic Florida 28.12N 80.58W
Re: comments on the day [Re: Ed in Va]
      #46991 - Tue Aug 09 2005 11:21 AM

I guess we`ll have to wait and see what old Irene is going to do. Whats going on in front of her that would turn her more N.W. and then N. and keep her away from the East Coast ??.....Time will tell.......I hope she turns and sleeps with the fish.....Weatherchef........ web page

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Brad in Miami
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 365
HPC instead of NHC issuing advisories on Irene [Re: Ryan]
      #46992 - Tue Aug 09 2005 11:21 AM

I noticed that the hydrometeorological (sp?) prediction center, not the NHC, issued the 11 am advisories and is scheduled to issue the 5 pm. I've never seen that with a depression at sea, and it seems particularly odd for a depression that still has the potential to head in the general direction of the Bahamas or U.S. over the next week. I've only seen the HPC issue advisories once a storm/depression has been inland for a time.

Is this standard practice? Or is there something about Irene, its weak state, its forecast track, or something else that made her a candidate for this?

Maybe I am just an idiot (well, I know the answer to that one) who hasn't noticed that this is done all the time.


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Ed in Va
Weather Master


Reged: Fri
Posts: 489
Loc: 36.02N 75.67W
Re: The Facts on Irene [Re: Ryan]
      #46994 - Tue Aug 09 2005 11:23 AM

Anbody got any data on the track of storms that have hit the NE? My recollection is that they have come up the coast...see this link on LI hurricane history:
http://longisland.about.com/cs/weather/a/hurricane_past_2.htm
and not from this direction. Wouldn't recurving be a huge issue for this possible track?

--------------------
Survived Carol and Edna '54 in Maine. Guess this kind of dates me!


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Brad in Miami
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 365
Re: HPC instead of NHC issuing advisories on Irene [Re: Brad in Miami]
      #46995 - Tue Aug 09 2005 11:24 AM

Almost forgot: if I'm not mistaken, the fact that the HPC is now issuing advisories means we don't get the graphics representations of the forecast track, among other things.

Will the NHC issue advisories again if this becomes a tropical storm again? This is so intriguing to me, particuarly because I can't find a reference to the "switchover." In the times I've seen this, I've seen one final advisory from the NHC saying something to the effect of, "Future advisories on Irene will be issued by the HPC."

OOPS--Just found this in the 5 am advisory:

THE NEXT ADVISORY ON IRENE WILL BE ISSUED BY THE
NWS/HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER AT 11 AM AST.

Edited by Brad in Miami (Tue Aug 09 2005 11:29 AM)


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