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Archives 2000s >> 2005 News Talkbacks

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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
Re: No Evacuations?!?!? [Re: Rasvar]
      #51448 - Sun Aug 28 2005 10:48 AM

11am is out

HURRICANE Katrina ADVISORY NUMBER 23
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
10 AM CDT SUN AUG 28 2005

...POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC HURRICANE Katrina...EVEN
STRONGER...HEADED FOR THE NORTHERN GULF COAST...

REPEATING THE 10 AM CDT POSITION...26.0 N... 88.1 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...175mph. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 907 MB.

--------------------
www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh



Edited by Storm Hunter (Sun Aug 28 2005 10:51 AM)


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Random Chaos
Weather Analyst


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1024
Loc: Maryland
Re: No Evacuations?!?!? [Re: mbfly]
      #51449 - Sun Aug 28 2005 10:53 AM

10:31 am Vortex Message from NHC (my notes in italic):

000
URNT12 KNHC 281431
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 28/14:17:00Z
B. 25 deg 58 min N
088 deg 03 min W
C. 700 mb 2294 m
D. NA kt
E. deg nm
F. 306 deg 140 kt
G. 221 deg 014 nm
H. 907 mb
I. 12 C/ 3059 m
J. 26 C/ 3048 m
K. 6 C/ NA
L. CLOSED WALL
M. C22 [that's a 22 NM circular eye]
N. 12345/ 7
O. 1 / 1 nm
P. AF302 1712A Katrina OB 21
MAX FL WIND 166 KTS OUTBOUND NE QUAD 1422Z. PERFECT STADIUM EFFECT AND TEXTBOOK RADAR DEPICTION OF EYEWALL.

---------------

166 KT flight level winds = about 145-150 KT surface winds. Wow.

--------------

Admins, looks like you're getting saturated here. Just got a Mysql error: too many connections.


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Southern4sure
Weather Guru


Reged: Sun
Posts: 115
Loc: Land O Lakes, FL
Effects of Katrina [Re: lunkerhunter]
      #51450 - Sun Aug 28 2005 10:53 AM

If Katrina land falls in eastern La as predicted, what kind of effect should the people in Pascogoula, MS and Mobile, AL expect?

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Margie
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1191
Loc: Twin Cities
Re: No Evacuations?!?!? [Re: Storm Hunter]
      #51451 - Sun Aug 28 2005 10:55 AM

I KNOW!!! Sheesh I'm floored. I just finished reading about the SHIPS latest intensity forecast (that was to 175kts!) within the last couple hours and I laughed.

Then there was the recon, and I was trying to calc in my head...so how fast is that at the surface?

But logically it follows: finally the winds have caught up with the pressure drops.

--------------------
Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp


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Clark
Meteorologist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1710
Loc:
Re: Effects of Katrina [Re: Southern4sure]
      #51452 - Sun Aug 28 2005 10:55 AM

Coming up with a long post about all of that now....that area can expect tidal flooding & storm surge, high winds, and the potential for tornadoes and heavy rain as the storm makes landfall. Its effects are far-reaching and will not just be felt near where it makes landfall.

--------------------
Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)


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Kevin
Weather Master


Reged: Fri
Posts: 524
Loc: EC Florida
Re: Mandatory Evacs now.. please listen [Re: LoisCane]
      #51454 - Sun Aug 28 2005 10:57 AM

Steve is really staying in Metairie? He really needs to get the * out of there. As HF said...staying in coastal LA or MS is probably equivalent to a death sentence. But I guess you can't order everyone around...

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MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
Posts: 4240
Loc: Orlando, FL
Re: Effects of Katrina [Re: Clark]
      #51456 - Sun Aug 28 2005 10:58 AM

Placed a new thread up, this one was getting corrupted from too many moves.

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Margie
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1191
Loc: Twin Cities
Re: No Evacuations?!?!? [Re: Random Chaos]
      #51457 - Sun Aug 28 2005 11:01 AM

Well, once again, the other shoe drops. The same new wording we saw in the news at 9am this morning. Actually, I like the way they decided to do this. From the 10am discussion:

"Recalling that the average NHC 24-hour
track forecast error is about 80 N mi...the actual landfall point
could still be anywhere from southeastern Louisiana to the
Mississippi coast. Also...we must continue to stress that the
hurricane is not just a point on the map...because destructive
winds...torrential rains...storm surge...and dangerous waves extend
well away from the eye. It is impossible to specify which County
or Parish will experience the worst weather."

What else could they do given the situation and forecasting limitations? NHC conservatively will always stay with the previous forecast unless there is some specific rationale to change it. But here they are saying the forecast is only as good as it is, and for a storm like this, the forecast isn't really good enough - not anyone's fault.

So anyone anywhere near can expect they might possibly see the worst, not just NO now.

--------------------
Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp


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kissy
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Sat
Posts: 20
Loc: Pascagoula, MS
Re: No Evacuations?!?!? [Re: Margie]
      #51487 - Sun Aug 28 2005 11:42 AM

Did NHC actually move thier line over of has it been that way? Wondering if my eyes are playing tricks on me!

--------------------

Nothing like fishing in the middle of a hurricane! Katrina '06!


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Psyber
Weather Guru


Reged: Fri
Posts: 199
Loc: Ontario, Canada
Re: Water Temp [Re: Catmando]
      #51517 - Sun Aug 28 2005 12:46 PM

Yes, Katrina is taking ALOT of energy out of the GOM right now.

Quote:

I have a question which may be of interest to others. If a hurricane or tropical depression entered the gulf in the near future, will the waters be cooler because of the size and velicity of Katrina?




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