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Archives 2000s >> 2005 News Talkbacks

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pcola
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 344
Loc: pensacola/gulf breeze
Re: Tropical Storm Ophelia Uncertainty [Re: MikeC]
      #54203 - Thu Sep 08 2005 09:15 AM

As to the Bay of Campeche, local weather here in Pcola says it could develope but it will be slowly and they expect it to head into Mexico, and they are not considering it a threat

--------------------
Erin 95 , Opal 95, Ivan 04, Dennis 05, and that's enough!!!!


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LI Phil
User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
BOC Activity [Re: pcola]
      #54204 - Thu Sep 08 2005 09:20 AM

per Accuweather, a tropical wave along 94 west south of 21 north has a broad area of low pressure over the Bay of Campeche. A large upper-level low over the western Gulf is venting the southern Gulf and central Gulf causing enhanced clouds and thunderstorms. As the upper-level low moves southwestward, the area of low pressure in the southern Bay of Campeche might become an organized tropical system in a couple of days.

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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doug
Weather Analyst


Reged: Mon
Posts: 972
Loc: parrish,fl
Re: Tropical Storm Ophelia Uncertainty [Re: emackl]
      #54205 - Thu Sep 08 2005 09:31 AM

What can any of us say about these forcast tracs? Nothing unless we know the science that goes into those models, and I certainly don't.
But I do know that the WV suggests the ridge is pushing hard toward the SE coast, and that coupled with the relative weakness of the system will not allow for much movement, more or less northward movement..
As for the storm's appearance...it is not able to grab much energy producing moisture from its SE quardrant as these things want to do as there is none there..it has to pull what it has in from the SW over the GOM, and that is inhibited by that large ULL...so I don't see much increase in intensity today, although some convective pockets are showing up on the visible.
It is possible if the storm does not ramp up a bit it could actually be pushed south a bit by what I see in the ridge pushing down to the SE today...that of course is very unscientific speculation...but we'll see I guess!

--------------------
doug


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MadDog
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Thu
Posts: 51
Loc: DeBary, Florida
Re: Tropical Storm Ophelia Uncertainty [Re: doug]
      #54206 - Thu Sep 08 2005 09:51 AM

Where do I go to read about what causes the ridges to form so '' rigidly"? That puppy doesn't look like it is going anywhere.

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MLB Pilot
Registered User


Reged: Tue
Posts: 4
Loc: Indialantic, FL USA
Re: Tropical Storm Ophelia Uncertainty [Re: doug]
      #54207 - Thu Sep 08 2005 09:53 AM

Am I crazy, or does the MLB radar (@ 1341Z) show convection wrapping around what seems to be a center located a bit more to the south (like due E of MLB)?

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NewWatcher
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 387
Loc: Port Orange, FL
Re: Tropical Storm Ophelia Uncertainty [Re: MLB Pilot]
      #54208 - Thu Sep 08 2005 09:57 AM

more like due east of titusville cape area i think

--------------------
Pam in Volusia County

According to Colleen A ... "I AM A HURRICANE FREAK"
2007 Predictions 16/9/6


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MLB Pilot
Registered User


Reged: Tue
Posts: 4
Loc: Indialantic, FL USA
Re: Tropical Storm Ophelia Uncertainty [Re: NewWatcher]
      #54209 - Thu Sep 08 2005 10:01 AM

Quote:

more like due east of titusville cape area i think




Could be. I think there has been a little jog to the S/SW, but who knows with this thing, and I am not an expert.

Either way, we both need to keep an eye on this thing.


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AgentB
Weather Guru


Reged: Fri
Posts: 188
Loc: Winter Park, FL
Re: Tropical Storm Ophelia Uncertainty [Re: NewWatcher]
      #54210 - Thu Sep 08 2005 10:03 AM

I've been watching the I.R. loop for a little while, and the "piece" off to the NE looks like it's trying to pull off/away from Ophelia. There have been flare-ups here and there, but she's still not looking very organized.

--------------------
Check the Surf


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Beaumont, TX
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
Posts: 318
Re: BOC Activity [Re: LI Phil]
      #54211 - Thu Sep 08 2005 10:04 AM

Thanks for the information. Since it looks like it might head into Mexico if something develops then Texas won't need to worry.
I have been watching it, however, and it does look like a possibility it could develop into something.


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Thunderbird12
Meteorologist


Reged: Thu
Posts: 644
Loc: Oklahoma
Re: Tropical Storm Ophelia Uncertainty [Re: AgentB]
      #54214 - Thu Sep 08 2005 10:15 AM

Looks like another sub-vortex has spun up inside the broad center of the storm, based on the radar. There isn't as much shear evident as there was yesterday, so the storm may have a better chance to intensify more with each new burst of convection (like the one that is flaring up now).

There are also some 64+ knot wind speeds at beam height showing up on the radial velocity from the Melbourne radar in the last couple of frames. If that persists, the wind speeds with the system will likely have to be taken up a notch in the next advisory.

Edited by Thunderbird12 (Thu Sep 08 2005 10:20 AM)


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Rasvar
Weather Master


Reged: Fri
Posts: 571
Loc: Tallahassee, Fl
Re: Tropical Storm Ophelia Uncertainty [Re: Thunderbird12]
      #54217 - Thu Sep 08 2005 10:29 AM

Ophelia looks to be going through a little spurt of trying to better organize. Still looks like it is going nowhere. Due east of the Cape right now.

--------------------
Jim


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doug
Weather Analyst


Reged: Mon
Posts: 972
Loc: parrish,fl
Re: Tropical Storm Ophelia Uncertainty [Re: Thunderbird12]
      #54218 - Thu Sep 08 2005 10:33 AM

We should really watch the pressure to see if there is true intensification...much of the wind speed could be influenced by a deepening gradient between the high and the cyclone without actual lowering of the pressure..by all stretches at 989mb, it could already be at 74kt but it isn't because it is struggling to build convection in relatively dry air.
I think the pulling of the NE quardrant away by the easterlies is very significant not only in the loss of energy, but could signal the actualization of the logic of the Accuweather forecast from yesterday which suggested that the LLC would split off and move west..
that can still happen...much of the model guidance I can see for the loop was based on more northward movement by now which has not happened...
As I see it this vortex was caused by an"eddy' in the atmosphere, and that eddy is still stuck..the longer it does not move the more chance for a westward solution in my opinion...

--------------------
doug

Edited by doug (Thu Sep 08 2005 10:34 AM)


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ralphfl
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 435
Re: Tropical Storm Ophelia Uncertainty [Re: doug]
      #54219 - Thu Sep 08 2005 10:34 AM

Per 11am all the same as before no movement and same winds just a update of 5am


The future track has a NE movement per 5 days. after 3 days it starts the loop.

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200516.html

Edited by ralphfl (Thu Sep 08 2005 10:40 AM)


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lawgator
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Sat
Posts: 75
Loc: E C Fla.
Re: Tropical Storm Ophelia Uncertainty [Re: doug]
      #54221 - Thu Sep 08 2005 10:41 AM


Question for the prognosticators: The five day forecast track has Ophelia geting a little northeast and then starting a loop back to the south, not all that far from where she is now. After that period (and I realize the track itself is highly uncertain), what is the long-term thinking? I confess an inability to read the maps for the NW and Midwest U.S. so I don't know whether to expect a ridge to build in and force it back to the west or for a front to come through, pick her up, and sail her off to the deep Atlantic. Thoughts on that?

Also, I understand that SSTs go down in the wake of big storms and affect storms coming shortly after them. Is there any chance that stationary churning by Ophelia will lower the SSTs under her? Its a middling T.S. now -- is that enough to impact the SSTs and, also is the flow of the Gulf Stream going to keep the SSTs warm just because of where she has parked?

Thanks folks.


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ralphfl
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 435
Re: Tropical Storm Ophelia Uncertainty [Re: lawgator]
      #54222 - Thu Sep 08 2005 10:46 AM

5 day forcasts from the NHC have large errors anything beyound 5 days is a GUESS you may not agree with me some of you but it is.

There is noway beyound a guess since the NHC does not even go past that since systems change each day so to say in 7 days it will go here or there is just a guess.


My guess past 5 days? ....Watch it see what it does that is my guess.

Edited by ralphfl (Thu Sep 08 2005 10:48 AM)


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