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Archives 2000s >> 2005 News Talkbacks

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Kattbyrde
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Tue
Posts: 10
Re: Hurricane Ophelia Sitting off East Central Florida Still Stationary [Re: AgentB]
      #54448 - Fri Sep 09 2005 04:13 PM

Does anyone think she may be starting the loop now?

I'm a brand new observer, so still learning how to read the radars, etc.


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doug
Weather Analyst


Reged: Mon
Posts: 972
Loc: parrish,fl
Re: Moving SE? [Re: jaxmike]
      #54449 - Fri Sep 09 2005 04:15 PM

The Vortex data AND the radar loop all suggest ENE at 4-5mph. The WV shows a sharp W to E flow ahead so it may be nearly maxed out on latitude until the loop occurs.

The ULL from the SE has a strong westerly flow with it so if it does not gain much latitude there is some cause for concern in the Florida peninsula after the loop. Im not sure how much that ULL has played into the model calculations.
I agree it will be reclassified to Cat 1 this p.m. I don't think cat 1 is its limit, but not more than 2.
Will see how the strom progesses in latitude before I buy a solution as far as South Carolina.

--------------------
doug


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jaxmike
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 18
Loc: Jacksonville
Re: Hurricane Ophelia Sitting off East Central Florida Still Stationary [Re: Kattbyrde]
      #54450 - Fri Sep 09 2005 04:22 PM

Quote:

Does anyone think she may be starting the loop now?

I'm a brand new observer, so still learning how to read the radars, etc.




Honestly, no. But it's still way too early to tell for sure.]

Edited by jaxmike (Fri Sep 09 2005 04:27 PM)


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jaxmike
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 18
Loc: Jacksonville
Re: Moving SE? [Re: doug]
      #54451 - Fri Sep 09 2005 04:26 PM

Quote:

The Vortex data AND the radar loop all suggest ENE at 4-5mph. The WV shows a sharp W to E flow ahead so it may be nearly maxed out on latitude until the loop occurs.




That was my take on the motion as well. I have been watching the WV loop for a few days now and at no point did I see this thing getting very high (latitude wise). I don't think it's going to make it as far north as is forcast, which is bad news for me here in JAX.

Quote:

The ULL from the SE has a strong westerly flow with it so if it does not gain much latitude there is some cause for concern in the Florida peninsula after the loop. Im not sure how much that ULL has played into the model calculations.




I think it has been under represented, It's looking pretty healthy today through my untrained eyes. I really don't want to have to go through a hurricane living 4 miles from the beach, right on the St. Johns river..

Quote:

I agree it will be reclassified to Cat 1 this p.m. I don't think cat 1 is its limit, but not more than 2.
Will see how the strom progesses in latitude before I buy a solution as far as South Carolina.




For the most part I agree. However, I would not be suprised to see it reach 2, but I don't think its going higher than a low three max.


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Kattbyrde
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Tue
Posts: 10
Re: Hurricane Ophelia Sitting off East Central Florida Still Stationary [Re: jaxmike]
      #54452 - Fri Sep 09 2005 04:28 PM

What is that is going to make her go North after the loop. I tend to agree with some of you that the projections are too far north. Do they think the ridge that is causing her to loop will become weaker?

Sorry if I'm asking dumb questions, but again, I'm a novice at this.


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ralphfl
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 435
Re: Hurricane Ophelia Sitting off East Central Florida Still Stationary [Re: Kattbyrde]
      #54453 - Fri Sep 09 2005 04:33 PM

now people seeing loops LOL...... the 5pm is out she is a hurricane again and still truging along as they have said NE at 6-7 so sorry no loop yet/ Pressure down a little.

Winds back to 75 and the track about the same but the cone is way north now.

How far west the hurricane will go
depends on the ability of each model in forecasting the intensity
of the high to the north of Ophelia. We are putting all the bets in
the formation of the high and the official forecast calls for a
turn toward the U.S. Coast in about 24 hours.

Edited by ralphfl (Fri Sep 09 2005 04:40 PM)


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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
Re: Hurricane Ophelia Sitting off East Central Florida Still Stationary [Re: ralphfl]
      #54454 - Fri Sep 09 2005 04:34 PM

HURRICANE OPHELIA ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT FRI SEP 09 2005
...OPHELIA REGAINS HURRICANE STRENGTH... COULD BECOME A THREAT TO THE
SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES COAST
...


REPEATING THE 5 PM EDT POSITION...30.0 N... 78.2 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHEAST NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 75 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 983 MB.

--------------------
www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh



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Ron Basso
Storm Tracker


Reged: Thu
Posts: 267
Loc: hernando beach, FL
Re: Hurricane Ophelia Sitting off East Central Florida Still Stationary [Re: Kattbyrde]
      #54455 - Fri Sep 09 2005 04:36 PM

Quote:

What is that is going to make her go North after the loop. I tend to agree with some of you that the projections are too far north. Do they think the ridge that is causing her to loop will become weaker?

Sorry if I'm asking dumb questions, but again, I'm a novice at this.




Some of the models weaken the ridge on its west side. The latest 12Z GFDL does not weaken this ridge and keeps the cyclone on a westward heading after the loop (or change in direction) until landfall along the central Georgia coast. However, the GFDL run has the storm making 31.5 N in latitude by tomorrow night and then stalls and turns her toward the coast. If she doesn't make it that far north - and to me it looks less and less likely as time goes by, then a more southward landfall along the FL east coast may be in the works. The speed and direction of this storm the next 24 hrs will be real critical to where she makes landfall. I also think a landfall by Monday night is not out of the question with this storm.

--------------------
RJB


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Clark
Meteorologist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1710
Loc:
Re: Hurricane Ophelia Sitting off East Central Florida Still Stationary [Re: Kattbyrde]
      #54456 - Fri Sep 09 2005 04:38 PM

It's a battle of two features: a sharp upper-level torugh sliding through the mid Atlantic into the southeast and the upper-low spiraling in from the southwest. As that upper-low passed south of Nate, it didn't stop the eastward motion of the storm but kept it moving slower than it otherwise would have. Here, it might help keep Ophelia from heading out to sea, as it might be want to do with just the trough passing by. Nevertheless, it's headed towards the northeast now and should continue to do so for another day or so before slowing, turning, and then heading back toward the west-northwest. There is a ridge there to the west of the trough that should build in, but it's not one of those ridges that will keep it headed west or slightly south of west. Thus, my landfall region centers on the coast between Brunswick and Savannah, with everyone from St. Augustine to New England needing to watch it. Ultimately, after it moves inland, it should continue to curve more towards the northwest and north with time, potentially heading into the NE late in the week. My forecast is slower than the NHC 5p advisory by about 12hr, mainly due to a slower turn toward the west, but nearly the same intensity at landfall. Landfall point is about the same, just not from the angle the NHC shows (I'd have it further south and curving up to meet that landfall point myself).

--------------------
Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)


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Wanna-Be-Storm-Chaser
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 90
Loc: Deltona, FL
Re: Hurricane Ophelia Sitting off East Central Florida Still Stationary [Re: Storm Hunter]
      #54457 - Fri Sep 09 2005 04:40 PM

Quote:

HURRICANE OPHELIA ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT FRI SEP 09 2005
...OPHELIA REGAINS HURRICANE STRENGTH... COULD BECOME A THREAT TO THE
SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES COAST
...


REPEATING THE 5 PM EDT POSITION...30.0 N... 78.2 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHEAST NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 75 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 983 MB.




southeast coast meaning where?

--------------------
I survived Jeanne, Charley, and Frances


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ralphfl
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 435
Re: Hurricane Ophelia Sitting off East Central Florida Still Stationary [Re: Wanna-Be-Storm-Chaser]
      #54458 - Fri Sep 09 2005 04:42 PM

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200516_5day.html

read the track at that link or read the disc i posted above the other post.


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Rabbit
Weather Master


Reged: Sat
Posts: 511
Loc: Central Florida
Re: Hurricane Ophelia Sitting off East Central Florida Still Stationary [Re: ralphfl]
      #54459 - Fri Sep 09 2005 04:49 PM

looks like South Carolina is the target now, I'm thinking at this moment northern South Carolina or southern North Carolina, then up the coast, similar to Bertha in 1996, probably near the same intensity.

Also, has anyone else found it odd that the eastern Atlantic has been unusually quiet this season? Numerous strong waves dissipated, Emily stayed weak until in the Caribbean, Harvey failed to develop until SW of Bermuda, Irene was a depression most of the time east of 50W, TD10 dissipated, TD13 dissipated before regenerating further west as Lee, and Maria didnt form until around 50W.


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Big Kahuna
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Sun
Posts: 52
Loc: DeLand, Florida
Re: Moving SE? [Re: doug]
      #54460 - Fri Sep 09 2005 04:51 PM

today:
0300z 28.7N 79.3W
0900z 29.3N 79.1W
1200z 29.3N 79.1W
1500z 29.5N 78.9W
1709z 29.7N 78.6W ( 29 deg 41min N 78deg 36min W.... not possitive on this one.)
2100z 30.0N 78.2W
1.3 degree north 1.1 degrees east movement


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Lee-Delray
Weather Master


Reged: Thu
Posts: 429
Re: Hurricane Ophelia Sitting off East Central Florida Still Stationary [Re: Rabbit]
      #54461 - Fri Sep 09 2005 04:59 PM

To quote Kansas:

"Dust in the wind"

Luckily, so far there has been a lot of dirt in the waves coming off Africa keeping them dry.


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Random Chaos
Weather Analyst


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1024
Loc: Maryland
Re: Hurricane Ophelia Sitting off East Central Florida Still Stationary [Re: Lee-Delray]
      #54462 - Fri Sep 09 2005 05:51 PM

The models take this thing in to shore anywhere from southern Georgia all the way through the southern tip of the Chesapeake (though the later location, predicted by the GFS, brings it along the coast skimming all the way past Deleware).

This is one I'm keeping an eye on.

--RC


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Ryan
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
Posts: 281
Loc: Long Island, NY / Stuart, FL
Re: Hurricane Ophelia Sitting off East Central Florida Still Stationary [Re: Random Chaos]
      #54491 - Sat Sep 10 2005 12:00 AM

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200516_5day.html

if she follows that track, would and could she re-emerge out of the NC/MD coastline or around their and regain strenght n make a second ladfall anywhere from NYC-Nantucket or Cape Cod, MASS?

--------------------
2006 Atlantic Season Summary:
Bad, But Not AS Bad.

Life's a Storm, Watch Your Back


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