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Archives 2000s >> 2005 News Talkbacks

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B.C.Francis
Storm Tracker


Reged: Sat
Posts: 322
Loc: Indiatlantic Florida
Re: Ophelia Crawls Toward the Carolinas [Re: WisconsinWill]
      #54648 - Tue Sep 13 2005 10:36 AM

I`ve been watching the radar loops out of Wilmington for the last 3 hours and I might be wrong but I don`t see any of the north component in Ophelias track. In fact I see a west north west drift and it looks like she may be heading more towards the Georgetown area. I`m in north Charleston at the moment and I`m not an expert but I know what my eyes are seeing. Large rain band off shore will affect the coast later on today I believe . It seems to be getting a tad more organized around the center. ........Correct me if I`m wrong anybody........Weatherchef

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Thunderbird12
Meteorologist


Reged: Thu
Posts: 644
Loc: Oklahoma
Re: Ophelia Crawls Toward the Carolinas [Re: B.C.Francis]
      #54650 - Tue Sep 13 2005 11:40 AM

I think the movement of the system is ill-defined at the moment. The circulation associated with the "eye" that is trying to form is not anchored as the center of larger circulation, but appears to cyclonically rotating within the larger center at a slow rate of speed (currently appears to be drifting east on radar). It's tough to tell which way the overall larger circulation is moving, since the center is so broad and it is moving so slowly. The system as a whole does appear to be slowly progressing (or expanding) northward toward the coast.

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Random Chaos
Weather Analyst


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1024
Loc: Maryland
Re: Ophelia Crawls Toward the Carolinas [Re: Thunderbird12]
      #54652 - Tue Sep 13 2005 12:01 PM

Yeah...where is Ophelia? Recon has her looping again. 4 hours ago she headed north, 2 hours ago it was west. Now it's south.

On Visible and IR she isn't appearing to loop, though the tracks are hard to find.

Ophelia has a mind of her own...and will go where she wants to.

http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weather/vortex.html

Edited by Random Chaos (Tue Sep 13 2005 12:05 PM)


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HanKFranK
User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
Re: Ophelia Crawls Toward the Carolinas [Re: Random Chaos]
      #54654 - Tue Sep 13 2005 01:08 PM

the fix they're giving is that weak, old inner core that's ricocheting around inside the large envelope of the storm. it's gonna keep doing that as long as the storm moves slowly and doesn't mix the dry air out of the center. some of that appears to be taking place, but it doesn't happen quickly. as for the earlier quote on bastardi's intensity... i don't see why it can't get to cat 2, later on. if anybody remembers gustav in 2002, it took a similar glancing path against the outer banks, and deepened baroclinically as it moved out into the north atlantic quite a bit. ophelia could do something similar. near the outer banks i doubt it will surpass category 1, however.
HF 1708z13september


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Clark
Meteorologist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1710
Loc:
Re: Ophelia Crawls Toward the Carolinas [Re: bigpapi]
      #54655 - Tue Sep 13 2005 01:15 PM

Considering the cooled waters (both due to storm-induced and physically-induced upwelling), poor inner-core organization of the storm, and proximity to land -- among other factors -- I think a call of a 90kt storm at landfall is, quite frankly, unrealistic. It may organize a bit more than forecast, but that's by 5kt and not 30kt. We've seen storms with impressive satellite signatures actually be quite a bit weaker than they are in reality this season, including this one throughout its lifecycle -- something Bastardi hasn't picked up on all season long despite recon & surface obs to the contrary -- and given what the current state of the storm is, it's going to take a lot for the surface representation of the storm to match any improved satellite appearance. It doesn't have the time, the environment, or the state of organization to do so. That is in no way to say that people in SC/NC shouldn't be prepared for a hurricane -- we've been harping on that possibility for days now -- but to think that something intensifying to major hurricane status will affect the region is just beyond reason right now.

--------------------
Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)


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Thunderbird12
Meteorologist


Reged: Thu
Posts: 644
Loc: Oklahoma
Re: Ophelia Crawls Toward the Carolinas [Re: Clark]
      #54657 - Tue Sep 13 2005 03:14 PM

Ophelia seems to be making a go at intensification. Convection continues to flare-up closer to the center, especially near that sub-vortex that is floating around in there. Radar wind speeds have been increasing in the western semi-circle of the system, possibly being enhanced by that smaller vortex. Outflow is excellent, but unless it starts jogging more to the NNE, it will move off of the Gulf Stream before too long. It also needs to develop a stable inner core for any significant intensification.

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bigpapi
Weather Watcher


Reged: Fri
Posts: 31
Loc: Myrtle Beach, SC
Re: Ophelia Crawls Toward the Carolinas [Re: Thunderbird12]
      #54658 - Tue Sep 13 2005 03:21 PM

Tropical Storm force winds just began here in Myrtle Beach. Some good gusts. Looks like the rain is beginning. This should be the beginning of what may be a long 24 hours. Also looking at radar it appears to be still moving NNW. Also latest Dvorak have Ophy at a 4.0/4.0. Should be a Hurricane again.

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Thunderbird12
Meteorologist


Reged: Thu
Posts: 644
Loc: Oklahoma
Atlantic activity [Re: bigpapi]
      #54659 - Tue Sep 13 2005 03:29 PM

Looks like they did a test SHIPS run of a system at 9.5 N, 38.5 W:

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/productview.php?pil=WBCCHGHUR

Perhaps they are getting a little more interested in the disturbed area of weather out there. The output suggests that conditions would be favorable for strengthening, but keep in mind it is still just a wave at this point and may never be more than that.


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Chris Bryant
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Tue
Posts: 18
Loc: NC
Re: Ophelia Crawls Toward the Carolinas [Re: bigpapi]
      #54660 - Tue Sep 13 2005 03:33 PM

FWIW- the NWS "experimental" radar page has doppler wind velocity images- http://www.srh.noaa.gov/ridge/ltx.shtml
. It does look like the entire North Corolina coast is going to get a whole *bunch* of rain at the least- and more wind than I like .


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rexsc
Registered User


Reged: Wed
Posts: 2
Loc: Charleston, SC
Re: Ophelia Crawls Toward the Carolinas [Re: bigpapi]
      #54661 - Tue Sep 13 2005 03:40 PM

Weather is beginning to deteriorate in Charleston. The winds are picking up with bands beginning to make an impact. It looks as if Myrtle Beach will get take a bit more of a beating than first anticipated. Radar looks as if it still has somewhat of a western component/wobble left in it before heading due north.

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Random Chaos
Weather Analyst


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1024
Loc: Maryland
Invest 95L [Re: rexsc]
      #54662 - Tue Sep 13 2005 03:45 PM

We have invest 95L out in the Atlantic:
http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_hom...es&DISPLAY=

Here are the model tracks:
http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weather/plots/storm_95.gif

========

Rexcs: Here's the 48 hour rainfall estimate from GFS (rainfall ending 8am Thursday): http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/12/images/gfs_p48_048l.gif

========

BTW - take a look at the Katrina sat loops at NRL. I made a thread about it over at the Hurricane History section

Edited by Random Chaos (Tue Sep 13 2005 05:05 PM)


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CoalCracker
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Fri
Posts: 96
Loc: Cape Coral, FL
Re: Invest 95L [Re: Random Chaos]
      #54663 - Tue Sep 13 2005 04:12 PM

Yep. Time to start looking in the rear view mirror once again. 12Z 850 vort CMC, GFS, UKMET, and to a lesser degree the NOGAPS runs are showing the possibility of something spinning up and approaching the Lesser Antilles in the next 6 days. Believe the models have been picking up on this the last couple of runs. Way too early to tell, however, what'll play out.

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bigpapi
Weather Watcher


Reged: Fri
Posts: 31
Loc: Myrtle Beach, SC
Re: Ophelia Crawls Toward the Carolinas [Re: rexsc]
      #54665 - Tue Sep 13 2005 04:17 PM

It's been raining nonstop now for a while. Gusts come and go. Probably nothing over 40mph yet. I have a question for the mets. Now that Ophelia is getting her core back. We've seen what looked like an enormous eye for the past few days. Cat 1borderling TS storms don't usually have eye features. Will this fill in completely over the next few hours making the "appearance " of a weaker storm even though it's slightly intensifying?

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Thunderbird12
Meteorologist


Reged: Thu
Posts: 644
Loc: Oklahoma
Re: Ophelia Crawls Toward the Carolinas [Re: bigpapi]
      #54668 - Tue Sep 13 2005 05:37 PM

5pm advisory kept Ophelia as a tropical storm, but they just did an update to upgrade it back to a hurricane with winds of 75 mph, based apparently on new recon data.

No mention of 95L in the 5:30 pm outlook, so they aren't expecting anything to happen soon, apparently.

Edited by Thunderbird12 (Tue Sep 13 2005 05:43 PM)


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amonty
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Thu
Posts: 66
Loc: Clearwater, Fl
Re: Invest 95L [Re: Random Chaos]
      #54670 - Tue Sep 13 2005 05:58 PM

I Was just watching TWC. At the end of the tropical update "Dr. Lyons" waved is hand across the Atlantic and Caribbean and said " Look at this, a beautiful Atlantic and Carribean ocean with no worries there are no other tropical systems out here it's beautiful weather for you vacationers."
Keep in mind he said this as he waived his hand right over Invest 95L. You can make what you want of that!!!


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bn765
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Fri
Posts: 60
Re: Invest 95L [Re: amonty]
      #54671 - Tue Sep 13 2005 07:57 PM

Bad news....Ophelia has stalled......

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Random Chaos
Weather Analyst


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1024
Loc: Maryland
Re: Invest 95L [Re: bn765]
      #54672 - Tue Sep 13 2005 08:23 PM

Quote:

Bad news....Ophelia has stalled......




Yep, I'm seeing that on radar. Last hour has no movement. IR still shows a slight northward movement and the next recon fix is probably about an hour off..could be more or less though.

It could be just a wobble, or an artifact of the reorganization she's undergoing. Only time will tell with this storm.


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Beaumont, TX
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
Posts: 318
Re: Invest 95L [Re: amonty]
      #54673 - Tue Sep 13 2005 08:27 PM

So what is the deal with 95L? Is this anything to be concerned about in the future?

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Random Chaos
Weather Analyst


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1024
Loc: Maryland
Re: Invest 95L [Re: Beaumont, TX]
      #54675 - Tue Sep 13 2005 08:34 PM

Quote:

So what is the deal with 95L? Is this anything to be concerned about in the future?




Several models show possible development, and the daily TWD's from NHC have been steadily making this system seem more and more organized over the past few days. It is still a ways from being a TD, but I wouldn't be surprised if it turns into one.

--RC


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bigpapi
Weather Watcher


Reged: Fri
Posts: 31
Loc: Myrtle Beach, SC
Re: Ophelia Crawls Toward the Carolinas [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #54678 - Tue Sep 13 2005 08:48 PM

Dvorak up to 4.5/4.5. So that supports 979 pressure and 89mph. Wonder what the next advisory will say.

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