Thunderbird12
Meteorologist
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Posts: 644
Loc: Oklahoma
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Extrapolating the current long-term motion would take the storm very near Galveston, so they may win out on pressure falls for awhile. The forecast calls for the motion to turn more northerly with time, though.
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ralphfl
Weather Master
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Posts: 435
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Hurricane Advisory Number 24
Statement as of 10:00 am CDT on September 23, 2005
...Rita a little weaker...still a very dangerous hurricane...
a Hurricane Warning is in effect from Port O'Connor Texas to Morgan
City Louisiana. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions
are expected within the warning area within the next 24 hours.
Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to
completion.
At 10 am CDT...1500z...the Tropical Storm Warning south of Port
Aransas has been discontinued.
A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for the southeastern
coast of Louisiana east of Morgan City to the mouth of the Pearl
River including metropolitan New Orleans and Lake Pontchartrain
...And from south of Port O'Connor to Port Aransas. A Tropical
Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected
within the warning area within the next 24 hours.
For storm information specific to your area...including possible
inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued
by your local weather office.
At 10 am CDT...1500z...the center of Hurricane was located near
latitude 27.4 north...longitude 91.9 west or about 220 miles
southeast of Galveston Texas and about 210 miles southeast of
Port Arthur Texas.
Rita is moving toward the northwest near 10 mph and this motion is
expected to continue during the next 24 hours. On this track...the
core of will make landfall near the southwest Louisiana and
Upper Texas coasts early Saturday.
Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 135 mph with higher
gusts. is at the border of category four and three hurricane
on the Saffir-Simpson scale. Slight weakening is possible before
landfall...but is expected to come ashore as a major
hurricane.
Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 85 miles from the
center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up
to 205 miles.
Latest minimum central pressure reported by an Air Force
reconnaissance plane was 929 mb...27.43 inches.
Coastal storm surge flooding of 15 feet above normal tide levels...
locally up to 20 feet at head of bays and nearby rivers...with
large and dangerous battering waves...can be expected near and to
the east of where the center makes landfall. Tides are currently
running about 2 feet above normal along the Louisiana...Mississippi
and Alabama coasts in the areas affected by . Tides in those
areas will increase to 3 to 5 feet and be accompanied by large
waves...and residents there could experience coastal flooding.
Large swells generated by will likely affect most portions of
the Gulf Coast.
Rita is expected to produce rainfall accumulations of 8 to 12
inches...with isolated maximum amounts of 20 inches over
southeastern Texas and southwestern Louisiana as it moves inland.
Rainfall amounts of 3 to 5 inches are possible over southeastern
Louisiana including metropolitan New Orleans with isolated heavier
amounts possible. Since is forecast to slow down significantly
after making landfall...total accumulations in excess of 25 inches
are possible over the next several days across eastern Texas into
western Louisiana.
Edited by ralphfl (Fri Sep 23 2005 02:53 PM)
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pryord1
Weather Watcher
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Posts: 49
Loc: Navarre, FL
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Recon report:
Pressure 929 mb 27.43 in
Eyewall thin on the SE and SSW sides
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The key to a good life is higher thought. Challenge yourself, push your personal limits and go for the brass ring!
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funky
Weather Hobbyist
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Posts: 55
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is it just me or is appear to have stopped in the last hour?
edit: I looked on the radar site and it does appear to be moving still...must have been the water vapor loop was playing tricks with my eyes....
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WE WILL FIX YOU N.O. --- http://media.putfile.com/KATRINA25
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Rick on boat in Mobile
Weather Drama Guru
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Posts: 161
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excellent observation\ on ...I think you're quite right. I froze all but the last 4 frames...and there's almost NO movement...just a re-organization of the eye....what this usually bodes is a significant change in direction......a loss of steering currents....
we'll see.
appreciate the moderators here. this is a great website. all of us can learn so much.
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MapMaster
Weather Guru
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Posts: 138
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Hmmm...
Three places have 29.70 readings...and in one case, you say 29.70=1005.7 MB, IN ANOTHER , you say 29.70=1006.3
So...if your premise is that the pressure is 'lowest' in Galveston, I don't know how you can say that.....
It's trends that show the most, not the actual readings......
Did you proof what you wrote? Is something missing?
????
MM
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pryord1
Weather Watcher
Reged:
Posts: 49
Loc: Navarre, FL
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Does a 1mb. drop in pressure mean much? It doesn't seem like it would, but coupling it with a slow-down in forward speed (even though recon hasn't stated that it has slowed down), could it make a difference?
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The key to a good life is higher thought. Challenge yourself, push your personal limits and go for the brass ring!
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rmcinorlando
Verified CFHC User
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Posts: 14
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Rick - which direction do you think it's going to head if it does change direction? I hate to think of it moving right OR left....New Orleans closer on the right.....Houston/Galveston area to the left.
Orlando is still overcast/windy/rainy today!
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BabyCat
Weather Guru
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Posts: 150
Loc: New Orleans, La.
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I checked WWL and there are releases from AP on the overflow.
Said the water next to the levee is waist deep right now.
The report said that they are afraid the levee will breach if it keeps overflowing.
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Tazmanian93
Weather Master
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Posts: 495
Loc: Tampa
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Just saw on MSNBC, they now have 3 over-top situations according to the ACOE. It was also stated that while they did expect this, they did not expect it this soon
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Don't knock the weather; nine-tenths of the people couldn't start a conversation if it didn't change once in a while.
Go Bucs!!!!!!!!!
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Ed
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Rick on boat in Mobile
Weather Drama Guru
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Posts: 161
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I have NO IDEA right now...
let's ask the moderators to help us understand what is happening to the steering currents. ....
it could go west....or north...usually when they stop...they change directions abruptly. I am NOT guessing here...I am just posting observations....
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funky
Weather Hobbyist
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Posts: 55
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Quote:
Rick - which direction do you think it's going to head if it does change direction? I hate to think of it moving right OR left....New Orleans closer on the right.....Houston/Galveston area to the left.
Orlando is still overcast/windy/rainy today!
on the lake charles experimental long range radar site, it appears to have moved north in the last 30 minutes.
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WE WILL FIX YOU N.O. --- http://media.putfile.com/KATRINA25
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The Force 2005
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 299
Loc: Philadelphia
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Rick,
Glad to see you posting once again. How was probation? Did you have to wear finger bracelets so you couldn't type your predictions.
you are the man!!!
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funky
Weather Hobbyist
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Posts: 55
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those of you on i-10 through la and eastern tx, you have about 2-4 hours before things are gonna start getting hairy. good luck to all of you and hope you find shelter.
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WE WILL FIX YOU N.O. --- http://media.putfile.com/KATRINA25
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funky
Weather Hobbyist
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Posts: 55
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official track shifted eastward, i think it will be not enough...this thing looks like it is gonna hit lake charles.
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WE WILL FIX YOU N.O. --- http://media.putfile.com/KATRINA25
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Steve H1
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 309
Loc: Palm Bay FL USA
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FYI, 98L is up at . 30 knot winds. More to come. 
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The Force 2005
Storm Tracker
Reged:
Posts: 299
Loc: Philadelphia
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Funky,
What do you mean by saying the track shifted east but it won't be enough. enough of what???
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funky
Weather Hobbyist
Reged:
Posts: 55
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Quote:
Funky,
What do you mean by saying the track shifted east but it won't be enough. enough of what???
enough of a shift to the east. look at the radar. this thing is gonna hit lake charles and points east.
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WE WILL FIX YOU N.O. --- http://media.putfile.com/KATRINA25
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Margie
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged:
Posts: 1191
Loc: Twin Cities
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Quote:
official track shifted eastward, i think it will be not enough...this thing looks like it is gonna hit lake charles.
It did not. The track has been the same since 11am Th; it has not been changed since then. This can not only be seen from plotting the points, but in every discussion they specifically mention whether the track has shifted. From the 11am EDT discussion:
"NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN TRACK IS ANTICIPATED BEFORE LANDFALL NEAR THE UPPER TEXAS OR SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA COAST EARLY SATURDAY."
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Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp
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andy1tom
Storm Tracker
Reged:
Posts: 309
Loc: Callaway, Florida
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i looked on the tidal surge link from an earlier post and the tides seem to be running about 3 feet higher than predicted at grand isle and 2 feet at galveston at around 6 this morning. so the fact n.o. is getting water sooner than they thought should come as no surprise based on what is happening at other locations
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