HURRICANELONNY
Weather Guru
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Loc: HOLLYWOOD,FL.
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If you look at the visible loop you can see either a mlc/llc around 22n 85w which is on the tip of the Yucatan peninsula. When this approaches the gulf waters it could develop into something or just bring more rain to Florida.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/gmex-vis-loop.html
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scottsvb
Weather Master
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Loc: fl
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There is a low-midlevel swirl over the Yucitan, the split the has been talking about,,,last night the blow up was over land with the midlevel circulation....the caused a weak LLC within the midlevel low. Now that the land based T-Storms have come over water, they dissipated, like typical land based storms do. Now when the center emerges just N of cancun we will see if T-Storms refire near and east of the center. The western half is being dryed out with the upper low pushing dry air down into the Yucitan. As this ULL moves w slowly and the LLC moves NNE it will pull moiste air up on its eastern side. Currently nothing more then a TS could happen if anything does happen at all, but if the upper low weakens some and moves into the western gulf states then there might be enough time for it to strengthn more with SSTs near 84dg.
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Ed in Va
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Why doesn't the same land-based principle hold for storms coming off Africa during the CV season?
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Survived Carol and Edna '54 in Maine. Guess this kind of dates me!
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scottsvb
Weather Master
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Loc: fl
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They are part of the ITZ the interaction of the wind fields just N of the equator.... this happens mostly all along it....while typical T-Storms further N will build heat convection then disappate over a different ground mass such as water..... Clark could probably explain it better then me on this. I hate going into detail..sorry.
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ralphfl
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what does the time table look like on this? i careless about it as what it becomes since nobody on here like me can do but guess.But our local forcast says nice Sunday and that is what i want to know about in the tampa area Sunday.
if all we can do is make guesses of no more value than yours, why bother asking? -HF
Edited by HanKFranK (Wed Oct 05 2005 07:12 PM)
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Beaumont, TX
Storm Tracker
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Thanks for the answers. The eyewall did pass over us. I heard one report we had nine hours of 90 mph winds with
higher gusts. Cleanup is going well although a lot still without power. This season has been so active and the storms are still
forming.
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lawgator
Weather Hobbyist
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Loc: E C Fla.
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Just a passing comment. Trying to watch the remnants of Stan over the mountains of Mexico, then Tammy, then 93 L, and then whatever lurks in the East Atlantic reminds me of that line in the original Diehard movie when the FBI helicopters get blown up on the top of the building.
"Looks like they're going to need some more FBI guys."
If this keeps up in coming years, looks like we could use some floater satellites.
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HanKFranK
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Loc: Graniteville, SC
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tammy--going inland near jacksonville/brunswick. might be some t.s. winds along the immediate ga/ne fl coast. good bit of rain on the way, but the system is moving quickly enough that severe flooding is unlikely. it also hadn't rained here since august 30th, so the light rain outside here now is welcome.
93L--well, since tammy isn't looping out into the gulf like the models were generally progging, and the upper low out there isn't looking at all tropical, the energy is concentrating near the yucatan. there's been a good fetch off the pacific for a few days... stan was the benefactor, but now that stan is a surface trough along the mexican pacific coast the stuff is running across a little better. add to that the sharp wind shift from the easterly flow across the gulf and there's a really good convergence area. since the upper low is still backing westward, its diffluent effect should increase over this area.. even bring a little ridging in. should the system move nne ahead of the oncoming shortwave, there is a chance it could form a tropical cyclone and deepen baroclinically as it approaches western florida. still formative right now, but this could range from a rainy low to a solid tropical cyclone. older runs weren't showing it come up, so it could potentially meander ne or even stall over the gulf. when/if something more substantive shows up we'll have a better idea. the origin of this feature might actually be that disturbance that was on the pacific side of mexico from stan.. that it pulled inland over guatemala.
94L--yeah, why not. the eastern atlantic now has a very low latitude contribution, with healthy convergence and some ridging aloft. it's effectively sheltered from the deepening upper trough over the central atlantic.. for now. at that latitude, any development would be very slow due to weaker coriolis deflection.
near p.r.--nothing doing... the peristent convection in the region has puffed out. if there's any mid level vorticity in the mess it is tailing tammy nw.
former TD 19/upper low--se of bermuda theres this amalgam of the upper low at the core of the deep trough in the atlantic, and the swirl from TD 19 following it westward. since its trapped under the ridge and has a makeshift surface reflection, am wondering if it will try to dig down. also has the energy from that hybrid that earlier model runs were taking across.. or at least what didn't go into that low near the azores (which recently got a st 1.5 t-rating, but is not tropical).
there ya go, a follow-up to stan, maybe another, and the odd wildcard.
two more names and then we're speaking greek.
HF 1921z05october
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Beaumont, TX
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Aren't things supposed to be slowing down by now? And what records have been set this season? Quite a few. I think one
of the most interesting things is how so many times they'd say something was going to dissipate and then well, it didn't.
Really interesting season. I know we are supposed to be in a more active cycle at the moment but I wonder if this active season
trend will continue into the future. Tammy sure got herself together fast.
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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser
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Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
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looks like to me tammy may have made landfall... or is making landfall with the current center... in the last few hrs.. new storms fired up on the NE side of center...and that may have caused the center to be thrown around...... by looking at the vis shot and not JAX radar... i think it would be less that 20 miles off the coast.... i think the 2pm had 20 miles northeast of Daytona Beach.... i do think with the lastest convection... it threw the center or it jogged to the left some... she is just off of St. Augustine
Jacksonville, FL National Weather Service Experimental Radar Loop
Edited by Storm Hunter (Wed Oct 05 2005 07:44 PM)
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Rasvar
Weather Master
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Loc: Tallahassee, Fl
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Is Tammy really a closed circulation? There seem to be multiple low level circulations floating around. I was actually puzzled to check my home weather station in Poincianna, just SW of Kissimmee, to see that the pressure has dropped from 1009mb this morning to 1004mb now. Winds are currently out of the WSW-SW. Not the direction I would have expected. Granted she is not really organized.
EDIT: Winds are a bit light at the location, so it may actually be more of a westerly wind now that I take another look.
check another station nearby to see if that isn't an instrument error or fluke. doesn't look right. -HF
Edited by HanKFranK (Wed Oct 05 2005 10:10 PM)
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Yikes
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No landfall yet for Tammy. Projected to be N. FL/S. GA.
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Thunderbird12
Meteorologist
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Loc: Oklahoma
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The center of Tammy appears to be very close to the coast, though with the way the storm is structured, the center location is not necessarily that important. With nearly all of the action to the north and east of the center, the center will have to get well inland before significant weakening occurs. The main story appears to be the rain, anyway.
93L is starting to resemble Tammy of a couple of days ago, with an apparent weak surface low or trough that is somewhat removed from the main convection and an upper-level low to its north that is currently shearing the system but may provide a slightly more favorable environment if the ULL digs further west. One difference is that the pressure gradient across the area is not nearly as steep as it was with Tammy, so it will take more surface development than what Tammy needed before cranking up the winds to tropical storm strength. There is also more upper energy and dry air digging into the backside of the system, which may result in more of a hybrid system if anything develops further.
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crpeavley
Weather Watcher
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Where's the best guess that will see the highest sustained winds from Tammy?
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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser
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Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
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well was close!
AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM TAMMY WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 30.1 NORTH... LONGITUDE 81.2 WEST OR ABOUT 35 MILES
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA AND ABOUT 15 MILES
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF ST. AUGUSTINE FLORIDA.
TAMMY IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH. A TURN TO
THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...THE CENTER OF TAMMY SHOULD MOVE INLAND IN EXTREME
NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA OR EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA WITHIN THE
NEXT FEW HOURS.
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www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh
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damejune2
Storm Tracker
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Loc: Torrington, CT
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My question is this: What are the chances of 93L becoming a major hurricane? I can deal with a depression, trop storm and even minimal cat 1, but not anything higher. Well, who would want to?? Anyway, any educated guess on the intensity and future path of 93L would be greatly appreciated. Reply to this post or PM me. Thanks!
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Gloria 1985 (Eye passed over my house in...get this...northwestern CT!)
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Thunderbird12
Meteorologist
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Loc: Oklahoma
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Don't often see a 45-kt tropical storm producing tropical storm force winds up to 260 miles from the center (NE of the center in this case), but that is the case this time. If Tammy moves far enough inland, it looks like there could be a threat of isolated tornadic storms near the coast to the NE of the center. If it stays near the coast, the most likely tornadic activity will remain offshore.
well, it's not that uncommon with these storm with a good pressure gradient and all the weather on one side. get one or two a year, usually. -HF
Edited by HanKFranK (Wed Oct 05 2005 10:12 PM)
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CoalCracker
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Loc: Cape Coral, FL
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Your pain threshold is higher than mine. Having seen what 's Cat 1 winds did in Cape Coral last year, I opt for nothing more than a depression. Track, intensity? Can't hazard a guess at this time. I just don't want to see an "UH, OH!" system that intensifies quickly right before making landfall. Keeping a keen eye on the models and satellite pics on this one for sure.
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damejune2
Storm Tracker
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Loc: Torrington, CT
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I thought 's winds were over 125 when it hit Port Charlotte/Cape Coral area? Anyway, i would rather see the thing not develop at all, but if it did, a trop storm or less is not too bad.
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Gloria 1985 (Eye passed over my house in...get this...northwestern CT!)
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charlottefl
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Hurricane was a very compact storm and while cape coral saw wind gusts close to 100mph sustained winds were cat 1 strength. Up in Port Charlotte and Punta Gorda we experienced sustained winds around 150mph with gusts much higher. Maximum radius of highest winds were only between 6-10 miles across. Very small but very destructive. I'm interested to see what 93L develops into cause we still have a lot of trees hanging by a thread here.
Hurricane '04(Port Charlotte)
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