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Senior Storm Chaser

Reged: Fri
Posts: 1191
Loc: Twin Cities
Re: Its official - Europes first on record [Re: GuppieGrouper]
      #58147 - Wed Oct 12 2005 11:15 AM

NHC's areas of responsibility (AOR) include the Atlantic basin, and the north eastern Pacific basin (north of the equator and east of 140W), and they track tropical storms in these areas and issue warnings, regardless of whether they are going to impact US interests.

Katrina's Surge:

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Weather Analyst

Reged: Mon
Posts: 991
Loc: parrish,fl
Re: quieting down [Re: Myles]
      #58148 - Wed Oct 12 2005 12:07 PM

Three features to look at today: one just south of Jamaica and one nearer to the SW Domiccan Republic in close proxmity to each other. The one near the DR is more vigorous. both seem to be at the apex of the huge upper low/trough along the eastern seaboard which is why they should be watched.
The third is the surface trough along the Florida east coast and into central Florida which is migrating slowly westward, the apex of which is near Lake Okeechobe..Not much upper energy for this to work with though, however in general pressures remain lower than normal across Florida.


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Storm Tracker

Reged: Fri
Posts: 225
Loc: Tampa(Riverview), Florida
Re: Its official - Europes first on record [Re: Cindi]
      #58149 - Wed Oct 12 2005 12:39 PM

I miss my snow...but i seen that its been a long time since tampa area has seen snow...with the current track of the hurricane season and the blizzard up north this past week....could that possibly mean we are going to have a rough winter?...i know last year we had several storms and then winter wasnt that bad(but im used to below freezing temps) would have to happen to get snow from the panhandle to miami area? thanks becky

"Haven't thought of a witty one lately"

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dave foster
Weather Hobbyist

Reged: Sun
Posts: 73
Loc: UK
Re: Its official - Europes first on record [Re: meranto]
      #58151 - Wed Oct 12 2005 02:10 PM

Wow, cool pics Meranto. Seems like the weather has, and always will decide on what it can and cannot do, despite our best efforts to predict it.

As far as the NHC area of responsibility is concerned I agree with Margie 100%. To be honest, for a time I had thought that the NHC were going to try and ignore their responsibility in respect of Vince. But, I don't know whether they suddenly had second thoughts about it or whether they were 'persuaded' to take action based upon some of the comments made at the time by experienced users within this forum.

Whatever the answer, I applaud the NHC for making the right decision, despite the fact that it was almost off the map. I'm sure the NHC announcement and the subsequent posts in this forum helped to allay some of the fears voiced by people like Josef. After all, the fear is in the 'not knowing'.

Dave Foster

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Weather Guru

Reged: Wed
Posts: 187
Loc: Cocoa Beach/Banana River
Question for you-all [Re: HanKFranK]
      #58152 - Wed Oct 12 2005 02:12 PM

I was looking at a couple of links.
First one was Radar:;prodnav=none

I thought I saw a rotation off Cape Canaveral.
So I went to the Bouys:
Station 41009:
Has winds out of the NW.
Wind Direction (WDIR): NNW ( 330 deg true )
Wind Speed (WSPD): 1.9 kts
Wind Gust (GST): 3.9 kts
Wave Height (WVHT): 3.9 ft
Dominant Wave Period (DPD): 9 sec
Average Period (APD): 5.7 sec
Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 29.85 in
Air Temperature (ATMP): 82.0 °F
Water Temperature (WTMP): 84.6 °F

Station 41010 100 Nm from the first:
Has winds out of the ESE.
Wind Direction (WDIR): ESE ( 120 deg true )
Wind Speed (WSPD): 3.9 kts
Wind Gust (GST): 3.9 kts
Wave Height (WVHT): 4.9 ft
Dominant Wave Period (DPD): 9 sec
Average Period (APD): 6.5 sec
Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 29.84 in
Air Temperature (ATMP): 82.0 °F
Water Temperature (WTMP): 83.8 °F
Dew Point (DEWP): 73.9 °F
Heat Index (HEAT): 88.0 °F

Is something trying to get going?

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Reged: Wed
Posts: 575
Re: Its official - Europes first on record [Re: FlaMommy]
      #58153 - Wed Oct 12 2005 02:30 PM

Actually, FlaMommy...that is a really good question!
I'm sure that you are already aware that recent ....years (really) increased in Atlantic Basin tropical cyclone frequency is fitting into a periodicity known as the multi-decadal oscillation quite nicely. Basically, in the 1940's, '50's and middle 1960's there was tons of action out there, then there was a relative lull, which lasted through the early 1990's. This cyclic behavior of hurricane frequency is thought to be associated with the SOI (Southern Oscillation Index) in the Pacific Ocean. Approximately every 30 years, the SOI tends to favor La Nina’s over El Nino’s as the preferred state of the Pacific equatorial waters. (Recently there has been study that the NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation) may play some role by exerting strong high pressure at middle latitudes, which intensifies the easterly components near and beneath 30N). Between 1940 and the middle 1960’s the Pacific SSTs tended to be neutral to negative, then, who can forget the incredible press coverage over El Nino that raged throughout the 1980’s.

How does the SOI effect hurricanes: La Nina states pile warmer, deeper thermocline rich waters around the western Pacific. The winds in the upper levels of the atmosphere respond accordingly by blowing lighter over central America and the SW Atlantic Basin. This is a spatial relationship of having less convection/upward moving air situated around the east Pacific equatorial regions. The resulting favorability is that it supplies less upper-level westerlies (i.e. shearing components) down wind; a favorable environment for tropical cyclone genesis occurs closer to home. Where as, if you pile warmer water in the east Pacific, greater convection/upward moving air is imparts stronger shear over the Caribbean and SW Atlantic.

Complicating this further, we are in a multi-year warm SST departure in the Atlantic Basin; which is to say, more energy available annually in the upper oceanic heat content across recent times. It becomes entirely intuitive thus, that more tropical cyclone production (notwithstanding intensities) would launch for having more energy(fuel). Compounding this factor with cool to neutral SST in the Pacific Basin creates high-confidence connection to our recent amazements. As a result, a 2.5fold increase in major hurricane production has been noted since about 1994, with is as much as a 5fold increase in the Caribbean alone! This makes the theoretical understanding of what teleconnects everything fairly well behaved at this time. This makes for a dire prediction for all these coastal interests here at home because these active times are not signaled to have an early lease.

What does this have to do with our ensuing winter?
Here’s the catch: the truth is, La Nina states or even just weak signal La Nina's may be very good for hurricane production, but that doesn’t not necessarily mean so for winter storms. Conversely, it has actually been demonstrated statistically that is weak La Nino states are concurrent with cold storminess in the E 1/3 of NA. This is then augmented much further by the NAO (Arctic Oscillation Index) (…also, a nested component of the AO (Arctic Oscillation)), and the PNA (Pacific-North-American).

There are a lot of different climate indices that have been defined, usually associate with specific weather behaviors around the northern hemisphere. Of the five primary indices, PDO, SOI, PNA, NAO, and the Northern Hemisphere temperatures, it is the NAO and PNA indices which show remarkably dependable correlation to intensities/severity of winters over North America (particularly the eastern 1/3). Complicating that even further…the PNA aspect has been weakly correlated to the PDO and SOI. I haven’t found any study that formally connects or attempts to connect the NAO to these, but who knows…

It is incredible how well these known indexes connect probabilistically to model corrections. If you’re looking at an 8 day lead time storm that could be a big one, check for your predominant PNA and NAO phases! If the former is positive, and the latter is negative (not to mention, you are in a weak ENSO east year) duck! I’ve seen storms in the modeled for 8 straight days that suddenly disappear just 2 days prior to the event, and then noted that my phases were not really that good all along. Also, the PNA has a shorter duration, extreme variability and the NAO is just slightly longer and more dependable. Sometimes, some years, they are remarkably fixed; other years they flip phases negative to positive so fast the very few forecast models (including people) demonstrate much skill.

There are of course exceptions to rule but for majority of the so-called 'block-buster' storms, the ones that can impart enough cold air to deeper latitudes to bring snow where it does not normally snow, can and are statistically correlated with positive PNA and negative NAO; while weak signal El Nino events make better snow producers (more moisture)

It is important to note this for this season because we are currently losing the weak La Nina signal that persisted for much of 2004 through the middle summer months. We are very darn close to neutral across the majority of the Pacific Basin. The graphical analysis of seasonal snow depths, as well as temperature behaviors for the U.S. during neutral scale is erratic and unpredictable... Meaning, nominal skill usually within normal will tend to result. But, that of course does not mean we are not going to get a deep latitude event, nor does it presuppose an active Nor'easter season. Last year we had more storms with CCB (cold conveyor belt) set ups then I can remember in a particular season. We had record breaking cold and tons of snow in all winters between 2002 and 2004. And guess what, that took place in a weak La Nina period... Basically, although the weak La Nina was probably a negative factor, the powerful –NAO and +PNA just overwhelmed.

There is also another very interesting (from the recent studies I've read on the matter) statistical connection. It has to do with the amount of late summer and autumn snow deposition that takes place over northeast Siberia.. Increased or positive anomaly snow pack in the sun-dimming months of the autumn up there for lack of better words, gets the momentum of cold air mass cryogenics working early. If the NAO turns negative in later October and November, then these arctic air masses get yanked over the NW Passage and Pole at least excuse to do so. Usually this excuse consists of a fairly high amplitude +PNA, where a ridge surges in latitude to encompass the Gulf of Alaska and W. Coast. The next thing you know, some reporter is demonstrating how to freeze a boiling cup of water by merely throwing it in the air some –40F morning in Tower Minnesota. I once saw Tower Minnesota go from the upper 40s to minus 20 in an afternoon in early December in a year such as this being described; these early cold snaps that coincide with the lowest solar irradiance of the annular cycle can be truly deep blue vicious. Even by early February you are getting nick by increased daylight – though admittedly you really need to get into early March to worry about sun messing up your cold.

So, if you have had enough of hurricane lore for one season and need the break… you got about 8 month reprieve. Next season is climate signaled to be big again. During the next few seasons for that matter, the lamest seasons will be average, but the big seasons will demolish cities – potentially.

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Reged: Wed
Posts: 1710
Re: quieting down [Re: Myles]
      #58156 - Wed Oct 12 2005 03:57 PM

Needs to be far enough away to assist in the form of an outflow evacuation channel but not close enough or strong enough to shear the storm. Usually they are unfavorable, but the environments around them can help bring together things that, if they persist and the environment becomes more favorable, could ultimately develop. Seen more of that this year than in most years, I'd say, but that's just off of my memory.

Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)

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Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
a few obs [Re: typhoon_tip]
      #58157 - Wed Oct 12 2005 03:59 PM

well tip if you've got any good ideas about those teleconnection indicies i'd be glad to hear 'em, because my term project in one class this semester will involve me tying the phase of those suckers to tropical cyclogenesis... if it works, anyway. gonna have to learn principal component analysis in a crunch here, man.
anyhow speaking of SOI, it's been averaging positive since mid september or so, with the odd dip here or there.. but has gone strongly positive in the last few days. this sort of action will get the easterly flow in the tropical pacific really kicking and strengthen the upwelling off of south america. got a hunch next year will be a la nina year. in these sorts of transitional winters... i.e. from near neutral to cold ENSO, you can get some pretty serious cold-air outbreaks over the continent. a couple of quick analogs i can think up are the '84-'85 winter and '95-'96. there's already been an general trend towards blocking and higher heights in the northern latitudes so far this fall, so i'm reckoning that winter '05-'06 could have some embedded extremes early.. then probably transition to the warm/dry south and mild/moist north configuration that is particular to la nina, if it actually does come on.
anyhow, worth noting that a few of the 12Z runs are becoming more interesting in that a nw caribbean system is starting to emergy early next week. around the time we're done dealing with whatever semi-tropical feature tries to pop out of the northern end of that upper trough near bermuda, the lower end might be brewing something up as the pattern relaxes and more ridging builds in over all that persistent low-level convergence.
in the short term the northern mid atlantic and southwestern new england are in big trouble as persistent tropical-origin rains keep funneling in off the atlantic. draw a 100 mile circle around new york city and anywhere in that zone is going to likely see widespread regional flooding.
HF 1959z12october

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Reged: Wed
Posts: 575
Re: a few obs [Re: HanKFranK]
      #58158 - Wed Oct 12 2005 05:08 PM

Yeah - it's tough man. There is definitely a growing disparity between what is known (or theoretically understood) about how certain index phases statistically connect to enhancing probability for certain weather phenomenon, vs. what is often observed. Take your '95-'96 winter: I was living in Massachusetts earlier that summer feeling cheated out of what was at that time a record breaking hurricane season; mainly, because New England was spared (just like this year - argh). Anyway, as you know, that winter was exceptional. At one point we had 40" of snow on the level and if you cut through the pack it was stratified into different layers of aggregates related to temperature at deposition times from successive events. Kind of like what avalanch researchers look for in predicting what layers are more prone to bifurcate and cause slides to take place... But, there we were at sea-level with our own micro-study.. It got so inundating with huge snow banks narrowing streets that it kind of changed the land scape unrecognizably in the intermediate sense of it.. But then, in latter January, huge thaws caused flooding...February, one last shot and we again getting belted by deep cold and heavy snows... That was it until 2000! In 1998 we were in the upper 70's almost everyday for a week in early December and much of that season was warm enough to play tennis outdoors.

Point being, at first glance one would be inclined to think that the huge hurricane season earlier that summer and autumn may somehow have been connected. The fact of the matter is they likely were not... Because, as you intimate, the phase of SOI and its connection to the ENSO state was in flux... Now, we do know that there is a time dependency for rapid transitioning ENSO modalities and the atmospheric response. That really confuses matters and makes your research look dubious if you don't acknowledge that as being true. If you are trying to write a thesis paper of some kind, pertaining to the connectability of index phase states to tropical phenomenon (or extra-tropical for that matter) you'd do your self a world a good by considering/planning for a time lags.

I didn't know that the SOI had changed or assumed any states as emphatically as you allude. Shows what I know.. I had just read NCEP autum climate eval and it didn't really lay mention to anything like that. They were pretty clear that neutral states of the ENSO were afoot and they believed also that it would likely persist into spring of 2006. That does not sit will with a SOI that wants to drive easterly trades does it? Kind of sounds like SOI (which we all know is highly correlated to ENSO) is indicating the neutral could be more transient than perhaps NCEP is currently aware or thinking.

I have been doing my own independent research in the matter regarding indices.. just for s*(&! and giggles I've been doing correlation cof on different states to see how well they move together... So far, I've nailed down some interesting findings.. One is that the AO (Arctic Oscillation - of which the NAO is a nested component) does not always concurrently operate when the NAO is in a given phase. Also, there is some weak correlation between the 2 year periodicity of the QBO and NAO, which is really weird because I'm not totally certain how the heck they could be shaking is a "weak" correlation at best however.. Anyway, if you are trying to connect SOI to hurricane frequencies, I have the about 50 years of SOI, QBO, NAO and AO all in spreadsheet (EXCEL)... I could email them to you, or provide you with NWS websites that provide the indexes going back to 1958. But just remember, the earlier phase indices are a little bit dubious (at least to me) because in their write ups the admit that the earlier measurements are based on study rather than actual measurements.. That is because many of these indices weren't readily known or explored before 1970-ish...

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