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Archives 2000s >> 2005 News Talkbacks

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Spoken
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Tue
Posts: 64
Re: 98L [Re: Storm Hunter]
      #58209 - Sat Oct 15 2005 02:16 AM

Well whatever 98L ends up doing over the next week or so at least I won't have to keep watching the same images between 03:45 and 05:45 (UTC). What can I say? I'm addicted. And man it's been a long two months.

GOES-12 and 10 Quick Reference Fall 2005 Eclipse Charts:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/SATS/goes-eclipse.html


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Spoken
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Tue
Posts: 64
Re: 98L [Re: Hurricane Fredrick 1979]
      #58210 - Sat Oct 15 2005 02:38 AM

Quote:

The UKMET is taking it similar to what the GFDL is taking it too. The GFDL takes it too 144K but the SHIPS model only takes it too 61K. Big difference in the intensity. But we will see when it becomes a depression and see what they are grabbing hold onto then. GFDL


Thanks for the link. So then does 144K (times 1.152) translate to 166mph... making the projected storm a Category 5... with winds greater than 155 mph (135 kt or 249 km/hr)?

The Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshs.shtml


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Hurricane Fredrick 1979
Weather Guru


Reged: Sat
Posts: 116
Loc: Mobile,Alabama
Re: 98L [Re: Spoken]
      #58211 - Sat Oct 15 2005 06:17 AM

Quote:

Quote:

The UKMET is taking it similar to what the GFDL is taking it too. The GFDL takes it too 144K but the SHIPS model only takes it too 61K. Big difference in the intensity. But we will see when it becomes a depression and see what they are grabbing hold onto then. GFDL


Thanks for the link. So then does 144K (times 1.152) translate to 166mph... making the projected storm a Category 5... with winds greater than 155 mph (135 kt or 249 km/hr)?

The Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshs.shtml




Yup and 910mb = 26.88in. So a very high cat 5 hurricane IF it pans out l ike the GFDL says. And it has done very well this year as far as track and intensity. But I will go in the middle with the SHIPS model that brings it to 61K which sond more right anyways.


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NONAME
Weather Guru


Reged: Sun
Posts: 136
Re: 98L [Re: Hurricane Fredrick 1979]
      #58212 - Sat Oct 15 2005 08:18 AM

15/1145 UTC 17.7N 77.1W T1.5/1.5 98
15/0545 UTC 18.4N 77.9W OVERLAND 98
14/2345 UTC 18.4N 77.6W OVERLAND 98
14/1745 UTC 18.4N 77.1W OVERLAND 90

T-Number are getting up there should se a depression by the afternoon Clark/ any other Met what do you think.

--------------------
I am a young Weather enthusiast and really want to get to college in a couple of years for meteorology.


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Random Chaos
Weather Analyst


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1024
Loc: Maryland
Re: 98L [Re: NONAME]
      #58220 - Sat Oct 15 2005 09:17 AM

It looks to me that the 06Z run of the GFDL hooks the storm northward in the last couple frames. From that view, it looks like this thing could go an unexpected direction - so everyone better watch this system.

GFDL has, however, dropped off in intensity. It's only showing Cat 3 now...as if Cat 3 was something we should say "only" about. Given that the GFDL is a fickle intensity model, and that the runs aren't dissipating this storm, I think we've got another potentially major system on our hands.

--RC


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Random Chaos
Weather Analyst


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1024
Loc: Maryland
Re: 98L [Re: Random Chaos]
      #58221 - Sat Oct 15 2005 09:18 AM

Oh, note: New thread for us to play in!

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