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#Barry now a sprawling Post-Tropical Cyclone, but still producing flooding. Few disturbances in the Atlantic we are keeping eyes on.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 3 (Barry) , Major: 278 (Michael) Florida - Any: 278 (Michael) Major: 278 (Michael)
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Ne at 21 mph
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Archives 2000s >> 2005 News Talkbacks

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Lake Toho - Kissimmee
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
Posts: 317
Loc: Kissimmee, Florida on Lake Toh...
Re: Bear Watch [Re: Storm Hunter]
      #58445 - Mon Oct 17 2005 02:05 AM

They appear to be moving west, but also appear to be keep it moving at a snails pace. Models usually have difficulties with a developing storm. So we shall see if and when this thing intensifies, what the models will do. This storm isnt moving to fast at this point. Its anyone guess at this point. Just watching and waiting, but my gut tells me this one should be interesting at least to observe.

Just finishing up the reconstruction of my house thanks to Charlie last year. Roof done, drywall work done, new wood floors, and hurricane windows... Screening to go on my newly expanded and roofed back patio this week. Last one was sucked up by a small tornado off Lake Toho last year, and I am sure Dorothy and the Tin Man are enjoying it somewhere in Oz, because it remnants still have not been found.

I hope everyone is enjoying the nice dry weather and cooler temperatures. Wish it was here to stay, but this weather system at most will drive the humidity, temperatures and rain chances back up to summer time temperatures, hopefully for the last time this year.

As far as the 00Z GFS goes, it does turn the storm across the pennisula later in its Forecast, but it is so far out, (more than a week) that its highly suspect. Once the intensity moves on up, then I will pay more attention to what the models are saying. This is a developing system and models cannot be believed until it gets stronger.

--------------------
Dream like you will live forever.. Live like there is no tommorow.. Darwin Rules !!


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scottsvb
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1153
Loc: fl
Re: Bear Watch [Re: Storm Hunter]
      #58446 - Mon Oct 17 2005 02:09 AM

The models will continue to change from run to run....been more w latly,,,for the near term,,expect a path towards the Yucitan and possibly coming onshore on Friday. After that it is speculation,,,,it eventually has to turn N and NE but it could just go right into Mex Yucitan and just stay south and west into the BOC. Currently I favor a track right now inline with the GFDL and the NOGAPS and bring it ashore near the end of the week. After that ,, again we have to see whats coming or not coming into the N Gulf states,,if nothing then it should just continue w towards Tampico next week or of course head up along any trough or weakness to its N. For Florida.....there is alot more time then we all thought 2 days ago.

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danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3518
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Re: Bear Watch [Re: Storm Hunter]
      #58447 - Mon Oct 17 2005 02:12 AM

Excerpts from early morning Area Fcst Discussions from FL NWS Offices.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
140 AM EDT MON OCT 17 2005 edited~danielw
.LONG TERM...THU THRU SUN...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST REMAINS UNCERTAIN SINCE MUCH DEPENDS ON THE EVOLUTION AND TRACK OF T.D. #24.
THE 00Z GFS RUN HAS FLOPPED FROM PREVIOUS RUNS...NOW ADVERTISING THE STORM WILL LINGER NEAR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS AND THE CURRENT NHC/HPC TRACK GUIDANCE ADVERTISE THE CYCLONE BEING PICKED UP BY A MID LEVEL TROUGH FRI AND MOVING NE AHEAD OF THE FRONT ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA THIS WEEKEND. THERE REMAINS TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY TO MAKE ANY CHANGES TO THE CURRENT FORECAST AT THIS TIME...

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
145 AM EDT MON OCT 17 2005
....LONG TERM (THURSDAY-SUNDAY)...
WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
ON THURSDAY. WILL NEED TO KEEP CLOSE TABS ON THE TROPICAL SYSTEM (SOON-TO-BE NAMED TS Wilma) IN THE WRN CARRIBEAN AND AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST BY THIS WEEKEND.
NOTE: THE 00Z GFS TAKES THE SYSTEM WWD ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE WITH MUCH LOWER POPS OVER OUR CWFA.
THE UPSHOT IS NO CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED FCST...

These are excerpts from the current AFDs in FL. Please use Official NHC products for current storm information and planning purposes.~danielw
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov


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Lake Toho - Kissimmee
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
Posts: 317
Loc: Kissimmee, Florida on Lake Toh...
Re: Bear Watch [Re: ralphfl]
      #58448 - Mon Oct 17 2005 02:19 AM

Actually the New UK Met does not have it going into South America, but into the Bay of Campeche, off the Mexican Coast line, or just north of Central America. South America, is much further south, just south of Panama. If you are looking at the map, South America is that big land mass just south of 10 degrees. Maybe Skeetobite can label the continents for you to make it easier.

The OOZ GFS does have it going across the peninsula and reforming east of Florida, but as you stated its so far out that its purely conjecture at this point.

--------------------
Dream like you will live forever.. Live like there is no tommorow.. Darwin Rules !!


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ralphfl
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 435
Re: Bear Watch [Re: Lake Toho - Kissimmee]
      #58449 - Mon Oct 17 2005 02:27 AM

well i may have missed a land mass since its late but my eyes still can see left or right and that ukmet does not have it going right < thats right > thats left. so why the post before saying it was? just something off the top of your head?


Owell bedtime hope to wake up to a good story for everyone and ill be sure to check out that ukmet 06 run and see if it has it going to florida on that run.

Edited by ralphfl (Mon Oct 17 2005 02:31 AM)


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scottsvb
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1153
Loc: fl
Re: Bear Watch [Re: ralphfl]
      #58450 - Mon Oct 17 2005 02:50 AM

nothing is going to florida for many days,,,,there is nothing to push it there for almost 5 days.

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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1060
Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida
Re: Bear Watch [Re: scottsvb]
      #58451 - Mon Oct 17 2005 06:21 AM

Quote:

nothing is going to florida for many days,,,,there is nothing to push it there for almost 5 days.




Hmm... the models are very suspect right now, having changed their tune completely in the last couple of days. However, the current model tracks make the current NHC forecast look ... well, crazy. If the models stick with a Yucatan/BOC solution in the next run, the NHC will probably change their forecast significantly too, one would think.

Having said that... Wilma could still impact Florida after a Yucatan landfall, depending upon the location of the trough. It's very common in October for hurricanes to hit Florida while moving NNE/NE.

--------------------
Hugh

Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)


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SMOKE
Weather Watcher


Reged: Mon
Posts: 33
Loc: USA, Ga.
Re: Bear Watch [Re: Hugh]
      #58452 - Mon Oct 17 2005 06:44 AM

/SARCASM
It's par the course .... FL has been out of soundbite reel for too long.
/END SARCASM

The model agreement for the Yucatan/BoC is good. Intensity and organization prior to landfall will be interesting.

--------------------




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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1060
Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida
Re: Bear Watch [Re: SMOKE]
      #58453 - Mon Oct 17 2005 07:03 AM

Quote:

/SARCASM
It's par the course .... FL has been out of soundbite reel for too long.
/END SARCASM
The model agreement for the Yucatan/BoC is good. Intensity and organization prior to landfall will be interesting.




I was thinking that since Rita hit Texas, Louisiana had fallen out of the soundbite.

In all seriousness, I think the media are over-dramatizing Wilma. Unless and until it gets moving, we don't know where it's going to go longer-term - which gives people time to watch and prepare... both Wilma and the surrounding environment. The next model runs will be interesting to see.

--------------------
Hugh

Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)


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SMOKE
Weather Watcher


Reged: Mon
Posts: 33
Loc: USA, Ga.
Re: Bear Watch [Re: Hugh]
      #58454 - Mon Oct 17 2005 07:23 AM

RECON update:
18Z FIX.
1 alpha pattern with 3 fixes requested. Hopefully we can define the circulation and surrounding winds.

True words on the media hype. We'll see. I'd believe the public has been beaten up enough this year. I know I'm saturated.


--------------------




Edited by SMOKE (Mon Oct 17 2005 07:26 AM)


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dave foster
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Sun
Posts: 73
Loc: UK
Re: Bear Watch [Re: SMOKE]
      #58456 - Mon Oct 17 2005 07:40 AM

So, TD24 finally blossoms into Tropical Storm Wilma. It's taken what seems like an age since the NHC classified her as a TD and for a while it looked like she was stagnating. I've seen the model runs like everyone else and it appears to me now that the only thing that's predictable about a tropical system is it's unpredictability. NHC now has it moving over the Yucatan and into the GOM but, who knows really, Wilma may decide to take a turn to the west and move over central America into the Pacific. We'll have to give her more time before she truly makes her intentions known.

Just my slant on things.

--------------------
Dave Foster
http://www.ascn92.dsl.pipex.com


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