floridafamily
Registered User
Reged:
Posts: 2
Loc: Englewood, Sarasota County, FL
|
|
First let me say that I am sorry this question is going to be ignorant. (Also sorry if this is asked in the wrong place) I know it is too soon to tell where will make landfall, but I'm trying to be prepared. (We are located in Englewood, FL.) Where would be the safest place to evacuate to?
i wouldn't worry about evacuating unless you're in a flood prone area, until there exists a large chance that winds will breach your home. that won't exist for a few days. if the center of the storm were to landfall near englewood.. the best place would be well to the north around ocala or something for a very strong storm. otherwise i'd just secure everything as best as possible and go to a local shelter. again, unless there's a good chance your home would be inundated... staying at the house for anything less than a cat 3 would be safe enough. -HF
Edited by HanKFranK (Tue Oct 18 2005 05:53 AM)
|
ftlaudbob
Storm Chaser
Reged:
Posts: 829
Loc: Valladolid,Mx
|
|
It's time to remember how thin Florida is.Meaning,If a major cane comes ashore at the western tip of Florida,Miami and Ft Laud would get a major hit.
--------------------
Survived: 10 hurricanes in Rhode Island,Florida and the Yucatan of Mexico .
|
Tazmanian93
Weather Master
Reged:
Posts: 495
Loc: Tampa
|
|
Your right at this point it is early, but based on current models and projections North will be the direction. Gov Bush is agressive in making S.O.E. calls so anyone needing to evacuate should have plenty of time and direction. But it really is going to be a wait and see for a bit
-------------------- Don't knock the weather; nine-tenths of the people couldn't start a conversation if it didn't change once in a while.
Go Bucs!!!!!!!!!
****************
Ed
|
scottsvb
Weather Master
Reged:
Posts: 1184
Loc: fl
|
|
Bob dont get so excited about it yet,.,,,it could even stay south of the keys giving them the most risk and giving Miami a brush like did.....ala Ukmet 0Z run,.
|
danielw
Moderator
Reged:
Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
|
|
Recon transmitted a 984mb pressure from the center. And they found 55kts Max Flight Level Wind in the NW Quadrant inbound toward the center.
55kts*1.15=63.25mph (flt level)* 91%=57.56mph at the surface...roughly.
It should be about 90 minutes before they make another pass through the center. That should give us the SE and NE quadrant Max Flt Level winds.
This is based on Recon flying their normal pattern.
|
ftlaudbob
Storm Chaser
Reged:
Posts: 829
Loc: Valladolid,Mx
|
|
I have told many friends here for about 4 months that we would get a bad one in October.Nothing to back that up,But a gut feeling.My gut has served me well over the years.
--------------------
Survived: 10 hurricanes in Rhode Island,Florida and the Yucatan of Mexico .
|
scottsvb
Weather Master
Reged:
Posts: 1184
Loc: fl
|
|
LOL you say every storm is going to Miami,,LOL but its cool and all, this one might,,but its too early,,wont know for 24 hrs,,no matter what the models say,,even tomorrows 12Z runs.
|
ftlaudbob
Storm Chaser
Reged:
Posts: 829
Loc: Valladolid,Mx
|
|
I said two storms would hit,I was wrong about one,right about .This one I am more worried about more than any other.This season HAS to go out with a bang.
careful what you wish for, bob. -HF
Edited by HanKFranK (Tue Oct 18 2005 06:14 AM)
|
Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged:
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
|
|
stronger winds on first outbound, like danielw said... should have been in the SE quad
(outbound)
MF155 M0800 MF061 - 61kts at flt lv. :surface about 63.84mph (using danielw formula above)
OBS 01 AT 04:15:20Z
OBS 07 AT 04:44:10Z
OBS 07 SFC WND /////
AF309 0424A OB 12
-------------------- www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh
Edited by Storm Hunter (Tue Oct 18 2005 06:05 AM)
|
HanKFranK
User
Reged:
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
|
|
well, the pattern is one of NAO negative and stuck positive.. so it's zonal ridging with a progressive mid-latitude pattern but blocking to the north. the tendency for low pressure over the east should effectively shunt out into the atlantic after it crosses florida (which is the most likely possibility right now... it'll have to start moving northeast at a pretty low latitude to miss, and there's significant ridging moving in place for the short term). the models were all going west earlier.. now they're trained back across florida. none are showing phasing into the westerly flow and zipping up the coast. unless that solution reappears, then the best bet is that it will arc eastward as it moves north and pass well off the east coast. a lot of the model guidance has shifted southward across florida with the more dramatic recurvature. i'd say it'll probably stabilize back to the north... with the way typhoon kirogi is curving past japan after being stuck to the south for days.. the teleconnection would be for a hurricane to zip across florida about 6-7 days later (at least that's what the rough average is by the winter longwave pattern.. not quite there yet). kirogi is 'past', so the cross-florida track would be roughly centered on october 22nd-23rd. kirogi intensified quite a bit sunday, which wasn't entirely expected... better hope doesn't mimic the behavior as it bears down on the west coast of florida. SSTs in the southeastern gulf aren't quite what they were in august, so i wouldn't expect quite the behavior. i'd guess that the storm's intensity will run somewhere between what michelle in 2001 and lili in 1996 had as they impacted cuba--more likely closer to lili. it'll probably be a substantial hurricane, nonetheless. target window is still cedar key to key west, with a special emphasis on the sarasota to naples swath.
elsewhere in the basin not much doing. there's a surface swirl near 23/41.. remnant of that invest from a few days ago. it has flashed the odd thunderstorm today, but is more of a remnant-type low than anything. pretty stable environment, but shear conditons are passable, so if it flares up again it'll have a chance at being a tropical cyclone.
gfs indicated pattern in the long range shows the potential for additional pattern-pulse type development in the caribbean. nothing to latch onto yet as it probably doesn't have 's exit strategy figured out yet. if there are greek alphabet systems in the offing, then none are exciting too much model interest.
HF 0606z18october
Edited by HanKFranK (Tue Oct 18 2005 06:22 AM)
|
danielw
Moderator
Reged:
Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
|
|
15.5N/ 79.8W Max flt level wind-64kts at 0553Z.
Should equate to 67mph at the surface.
|
scottsvb
Weather Master
Reged:
Posts: 1184
Loc: fl
|
|
sounds like maybe 70mph by 5am maybe....
|
Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged:
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
|
|
for some reason i think i see on obs 9 (at 0427Z) from recon, one after obs 8 which was vortex... the obs 9 has a 983mb reading in its data.... one mb less than vortex report
-------------------- www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh
|
Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged:
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
|
|
also in latest sat 545utc.... has expanded more and the center i think is much more under the convection now.....MAN... those are some COLD cloud tops to the south of center!!!!
-------------------- www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh
|
Multi-Decadal Signal
Weather Guru
Reged:
Posts: 149
Loc: BROWARD
|
|
Good evening Gents. If she lands as a cat 3...
How much category strength would be lost by if she crossed straight from Naples to Fort Lauderdale like Alligator Alley (Rt 75) does? Distance is about 110 miles and runway is 90 (dead east). Florida is 1/2 water and almost sea level all across. Not a good thing.
-------------------- Who you gonna' believe?
Me, or your damn lying eyes?
_Ö_ _ö_
|
danielw
Moderator
Reged:
Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
|
|
I believe is expecting a CAT 2 at landfall, and a CAT 1 level if and when exits the Peninsula.
Based on the slope of the 5 day forecast. A heading of around 060 or ENE should be close.
I haven't looked at the models tonight...so I'm blind in that respect.
|
danielw
Moderator
Reged:
Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
|
|
This is from Monday Afternoon's:
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
212 PM EDT MON OCT 17 2005 (edited~danielw)
ENOUGH OF A TROUGH EXISTS IN THE OH VLY/EAST FROM DAY 5 /SAT AM/ ONWARD TO ALLOW
WILMA RECURVE ALONG A CLIMO TRACK ACRS THE FL PENINSULA.
MOST OF THE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SHOW LANDFALL BETWEEN FORT MYERS AND TAMPA...BUT THE FORECAST REMAINS UNCERTAIN FOR TIMING THIS FAR OUT IN TIME WITH VARIOUS MODELS ONE DAY ON EITHER SIDE OF THE PROGGED TIME OF LANDFALL. THE LONGER THE SYS TAKES TO ENTER THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE FARTHER SOUTH THE POINT OF LANDFALL COULD BE IN THE FL PENINSULA.
This is considered somewhat old data. But it breaks down the scenario at hand a bit better.~danielw
|
charlottefl
Weather Hobbyist
Reged:
Posts: 94
|
|
This is kind of a bit off topic but in response to the user from englewood's question. I live in Charlotte county. Half of Englewood also lies in Charlotte county. This is a very vunerable area because I would say roughly 80-90% of the county is 15 feet above sea level or below. I am a mile and a half from the Harbor in Port Charlotte and we are only 8 1/2 feet above sea level. There are no Shelters for a category 3 Hurricane because of elevation. Our Flood maps show almost all of Port Charlotte, Punta Gorda, and Englewood, or three major population centers would be under water in only a cat 3, we're talkin almost 150,000 people. So my advice is to watch the forcasts very closely and if you have any doubts take a trip for the weekend. It never hurts to be to careful, but once you stay and the strom is on top of you you have no where to go. That applies to anwhere in FL right now because this far out it could hit anywhere . The key is preparation. Wish everyone in the state the best of luck.
Hurricane '04 (Port Charlotte)
|
LadyStorm
Weather Guru
Reged:
Posts: 154
Loc: United States
|
|
Pretty much all of the models have headed towards the south end of the pennisula. Yikes didn't want to see this again. What my question is, why have they decided to pick up the timing when she is still nearly stationary? What is going to pull her up our way so fast.? There are some other models that don't put her at landfall here until Monday or Tuesday of next week. Now the track puts her here Saturday nite? One last question is there anything in her path that could make her pull a Charlie and pull her to a more northly landfall?
MaryAnn
-------------------- "The significant problems we face cannot be solved at the same level of
thinking we were at when we created them"
..........Albert Einstein
|
dave foster
Weather Hobbyist
Reged:
Posts: 73
Loc: UK
|
|
Wilma is stuck in the doldrums yet again. If she doesn't find steering for quite a while as the are suggesting then will she continue to intensify, in situ, or is there a chance that she might start to decay?
-------------------- Dave Foster
http://www.ascn92.dsl.pipex.com
|