Thunderbird12
Meteorologist
Reged:
Posts: 644
Loc: Oklahoma
|
|
The storm figures to be moving at a rapid rate of speed if it approaches Florida, so there will be a greater difference than usual between the northern (weaker) and southern (stronger) side. Still way too early to tell who will be close to the center on either side, though.
|
FelixPuntaGorda
Verified CFHC User
Reged:
Posts: 23
Loc: Punta Gorda, FL
|
|
I posted this question at the end of the last thread: does the surge stay with the storm or does it extend out like ripples from a rock dropped into a pond?
Maybe I'm confusing surge with waves, but I'd like more information on whether a Cat 4/5 heading into lower southwest Florida would cause the water to rise even on the "good" side of the cane before the storm makes landfall.
I'm in Punta Gorda at 9 feet above sea level. I know pushed the water into Mississippi. But was the water only on the east side of the eye?
Thanks, Typhoon, for your information in the other thread. I have the surge figures for Punta Gorda, but I want to know where & when the water pushes ashore.
Fay
|
typhoon_tip
Meteorologist
Reged:
Posts: 576
|
|
Quote:
This year has been NUTS!!! , , and , all woman names ending in A and all broke pressure records and all are in the top 5 in all time intensity. ALL IN ONE SEASON! INSANE!
...just wait 'till alpha! 
|
ftlaudbob
Storm Chaser
Reged:
Posts: 828
Loc: Valladolid,Mx
|
|
Ok guys,I am going nuts here.What impact to you feel will happen to my area?Storm surge should be a none factor,given it is coming from the west.I will still be deciding soon if I should leave.I would like to hear everyones input.
--------------------
Survived: 10 hurricanes in Rhode Island,Florida and the Yucatan of Mexico .
|
danielw
Moderator
Reged:
Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
|
|
Eddie,
It's Way too early to get an idea what will do.
You do have the right idea about being on the North side. I saw a post earlier that reflected the possibility of 's wind speeds increasing After Landfall.
I'm not a MET. The only explanation that I could come up with would be 's winds and the cold fronts winds interacting with each other.
That information was from a post and I haven't been able to find data to go with that "spin" theory.
I'm starting to see some convection moving onto the Hills west of San Antonio, Tx. This may be the precursor of the trough that is supposed to be headed your way.
http://www.ssd.noaa.goc/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/gmex-wv-loop.html
|
Doombot!
Weather Guru
Reged:
Posts: 160
Loc: Lakeland, Fl.
|
|
Quote:
Hello.. I just wanted to get some of your thoughts on being on the north side of this storm at the time of landfall..
Is there still a strong anticipation that the shear will be strong enough that areas north of the eye should not be affected that bad? Will this recent intensification alter that theory at all?
Thx... Eddie - Ft. Myers, FL
Eddie, I've got bad news for you, my brother - you are squarly in the highest likelyhood of getting a direct hit. Four day errors are measured in the hundreds of miles so you need to get ready for a direct hit.
The good news is that I just saved a bunch of money on my car insurance, and more importantly, yes the shear is forcast to weaken the storm later in the forcast period; however if weakens 20% and it peaks at 170MPH (which is very possible with a still deeping 901mb cane) then we are down to 130mph.
Get ready now.
|
Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged:
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
|
|
winds are going up on this buoy.... not sure of exact loaction: Station 42057 has been re-established 162.82 nautical miles northwest of its original position to reduce the shoaling hazards experienced in storms.
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42057
Conditions at 42057 as of
0450 GMT on 10/19/2005:
Wind Direction (WDIR): ESE ( 110 deg true )
Wind Speed (WSPD): 40.8 kts
Wind Gust (GST): 52.4 kts
Wave Height (WVHT): 17.4 ft
Dominant Wave Period (DPD): 9 sec
Average Period (APD): 6.6 sec
Mean Wave Direction (MWDIR): SE ( 137 deg true )
Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 29.56 in
Pressure Tendency (PTDY): +0.00 in ( Steady )
Air Temperature (ATMP): 80.2 °F
Water Temperature (WTMP): 84.7 °F
Dew Point (DEWP): 78.3 °F
Heat Index (HEAT): 86.9 °F
--------------------
www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh
|
typhoon_tip
Meteorologist
Reged:
Posts: 576
|
|
...I took this down at the behest of a use... no offense intended!
Peace
Edited by typhoon_tip (Wed Oct 19 2005 05:57 AM)
|
HanKFranK
User
Reged:
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
|
|
okay, i knew the damned thing was intensifying, but that 901mb is mind-blowing. very very tiny radius of maximum winds... i'm guessing that s will help spread the areal coverage of hurricane winds out. in the meantime we've got a bizarre structure, with a super-hurricane nested inside what is essentially a big tropical storm. gotta wonder what the winds will be like when they catch up to the pressure fall... with that tight of an inner core.
i don't expect this odd structure will last for long... it will broaden out and ease up to the realm of reality one way or another.
like the says, though.. forecast down the road remains unchanged. gotta go check the 00Z models finally.. and finish this stupid paper.
HF 0553z19october
|
Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged:
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
|
|
970mb at 5pm
901mb at 1:00am
69mb drop in 7.5hrs!!!! (adv times...think that comes out to 8 hrs)
per warren madden on
said he's never seen or been in a hurricane with an eye of 4nm wide... in the atlantic basin!!!
--------------------
www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh
Edited by Storm Hunter (Wed Oct 19 2005 05:55 AM)
|
Thunderbird12
Meteorologist
Reged:
Posts: 644
Loc: Oklahoma
|
|
I believe it is the output of the last couple of runs that has been increasing the winds (or at least the 950mb winds) immediately after landfall. There would be no good reason for this to occur... this is mainly just some imperfect modeling. Some regeneration could occur after it re-emerges over the Atlantic, obviously.
|
orlandocanewatcher
Verified CFHC User
Reged:
Posts: 16
Loc: E Central Florida
|
|
Holy CRUD!!! Just got home from work a little early (sick child at home) and my mouth nearly fell open. This is absolutely unbelievable. Just looked in from work about 12:30EDT and things were still at a high 2 borderline Cat 3. I am starting to get a little nervous here....
I live in East Orange County....what can we possibly expect even if it hits further south?? Especially at this pace....this is nuts!
|
Margie
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged:
Posts: 1191
Loc: Twin Cities
|
|
Wait until you see the readings on 42056 tomorrow. I can't recall exactly but I think one of the two was knocked out by Emily.
And also trying to remember...which was the hurricane with the discussion comment about intensifying at a rate bordering on insane? Was that Emily?
Seems like each time that occured, the next hurricane raised the bar.
--------------------
Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp
|
Doombot!
Weather Guru
Reged:
Posts: 160
Loc: Lakeland, Fl.
|
|
This is unreal; the hurricane force winds only extend out 15 miles. That works out to be 5 MPH faster for every mile you get closer, thats 1MPH faster every 1000 feet!
|
danielw
Moderator
Reged:
Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
|
|
I think I saw this posted earlier. But I'll respost the comment.
I was just browsing the satellite pages. I am amazed, to say the least at the amount of very high clouds on the satellite pics.
The Weather Channel-(reds) don't do it justice.
Try this link...I'll see if I can find some more.
http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconusir.html
I have attached the image to this post. Click on the "attachment" above.
Edited by danielw (Wed Oct 19 2005 06:00 AM)
|
ftlaudbob
Storm Chaser
Reged:
Posts: 828
Loc: Valladolid,Mx
|
|
Let me ask the question............If you were in Fort Lauderdale,would you leave,and when?
I hate to edit your post...But Leave? Yes, as soon as I could. Stay safe, there isn't a need to rush right now. Just Do It~danielw
--------------------
Survived: 10 hurricanes in Rhode Island,Florida and the Yucatan of Mexico .
Edited by danielw (Wed Oct 19 2005 06:02 AM)
|
Doombot!
Weather Guru
Reged:
Posts: 160
Loc: Lakeland, Fl.
|
|
Quote:
Let me ask the question............If you were in Fort Lauderdale,would you leave,and when?
Unless instructed to by local officals, no and no.
Edited by danielw (Wed Oct 19 2005 06:02 AM)
|
typhoon_tip
Meteorologist
Reged:
Posts: 576
|
|
Quote:
okay, i knew the damned thing was intensifying, but that 901mb is mind-blowing. very very tiny radius of maximum winds... i'm guessing that s will help spread the areal coverage of hurricane winds out. in the meantime we've got a bizarre structure, with a super-hurricane nested inside what is essentially a big tropical storm. gotta wonder what the winds will be like when they catch up to the pressure fall... with that tight of an inner core.
i don't expect this odd structure will last for long... it will broaden out and ease up to the realm of reality one way or another.
like the says, though.. forecast down the road remains unchanged. gotta go check the 00Z models finally.. and finish this stupid paper.
HF 0553z19october
...additionally, i'm thinking the intensity curve has some momentum and won't hault on a dime in this case... particularly because the SST's in the area area or so warm and the u/a mechanics are looking if anything, better this evening.... but, at 2am...it's too late for me to formulate a cogent hypothesis about anything...ugh...
|
Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged:
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
|
|
well the plane is still up and flying..... but i bet they took a beating on that first pass....
like thudebrd said..... i bet they didn't expect that kind of drop.... and i would bet someone from or HRD has made a phone call to get a research plane up and reay to go at first chance..... i know there is one going in later today.... but i bet some of those research HRD guys are crapping in there pants right noe....wanting to get some research data from this historical event......one plane is good... but more would be better...
URNT11 KNHC 190545
97779 05424 40158 80900 30500 21053 0808/ /3082
RMK AF308 0724A OB 11
--------------------
www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh
|
ftlaudbob
Storm Chaser
Reged:
Posts: 828
Loc: Valladolid,Mx
|
|
I just don't want to be stuck in traffic for 2 days.There are alot of people here.
--------------------
Survived: 10 hurricanes in Rhode Island,Florida and the Yucatan of Mexico .
|
Previous
Index
Next
Threaded
Edit
Reply
Quote
