bobbutts
Weather Hobbyist
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Posts: 71
Loc: New Hampshire
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Thank you tpratch for the graphics, well done, exactly the info I'm looking for. If you haven't checked it out, I'd suggest trying grlevelx radar. It only works for the US radar sites so not useful yet, but it's much better than image manipulation for determining angles. Not a bad time at all to do a free trial or buy it.
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FlaMommy
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 225
Loc: Tampa(Riverview), Florida
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Morning all, morning native....thanks for thinking of me;)....lol...we made hotel reservations about 130am lastnight, just in case we do get evacuated...im telling ya i had to call about 20 hotels just to get one....so anything new .... 
i found this link for the movement of as she approaches cancun
http://www.tampabays10.com/news/live.aspx
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"Haven't thought of a witty one lately"
Edited by FlaMommy (Fri Oct 21 2005 01:20 PM)
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vineyardsaker
Weather Guru
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Posts: 150
Loc: New Smyrna Beach, FL
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Good morning Pam,
What would be your best guess for a worst-cast scenario for Volusia County? Do you think we still risk having passing right over us, or to our north? Would an outgoing hurricane also batter our beaches?
With neighbourly greetings,
VS
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Charley(eyewall), Ivan, Jeanne, Dennis, Wilma, Irma, Ian (eyewall), Nicole
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maddie
Verified CFHC User
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Posts: 15
Loc: Port Richey, Florida
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Hi,
I'm new to this website but I think its great....quick question is there a website that shows the updated spaghetti models for the storm track? I live in port Richey , 2 miles from the Gulf and am getting a little anxious over this storm......
Thanks
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NewWatcher
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 388
Loc: Port Orange, FL
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I am not a met so I wont forcast not to mention that this storm is a pain in figuring out what she's gonna do. We (at my house in port orange) have been ready for months. I just add some snacks to the cabinet at the last minute. We have our generator from last year, the pool has been lowered, the food is stocked so only left would be board the windows, which from what i see now wouldnt be necessary, unless doesnt weaken like they expect. Unfortunately all we can do now is wait and watch the models trend one way or another and come together after she exits the yucatan. That is when we will know. The is now showing the storm coming off fl between NSB and MELB area which is surely subject to change. Keep an eye out especially after the Yucatan cuz the possibility for stalling or running quickly exists.
peace
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Pam in Volusia County
According to Colleen A ... "I AM A HURRICANE FREAK"
2007 Predictions 16/9/6
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evergladesangler
Weather Hobbyist
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Posts: 71
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Accuweather has made a major move south with their landfall (it used to center at Punta Gorda). They also have it a Cat 1 coming ashore in the south Everglades near Flamingo.
http://hurricane.accuweather.com/hurrica...;imagetype=move
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jusforsean
Verified CFHC User
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Posts: 23
Loc: Broward County
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msb????
melb????
in laymans terms where are these??
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engicedave
Weather Hobbyist
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Posts: 70
Loc:
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NSB - New Symrna Beach
Melb - Melbourne
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NewWatcher
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 388
Loc: Port Orange, FL
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That is just ONE model and it WILL change keep in mind. I was just trying to show that we DONT KNOW.
peace
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Pam in Volusia County
According to Colleen A ... "I AM A HURRICANE FREAK"
2007 Predictions 16/9/6
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vineyardsaker
Weather Guru
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Posts: 150
Loc: New Smyrna Beach, FL
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Quote:
I am not a met so I wont forcast not to mention that this storm is a pain in figuring out what she's gonna do. We (at my house in port orange) have been ready for months. I just add some snacks to the cabinet at the last minute. We have our generator from last year, the pool has been lowered, the food is stocked so only left would be board the windows, which from what i see now wouldnt be necessary, unless doesnt weaken like they expect. Unfortunately all we can do now is wait and watch the models trend one way or another and come together after she exits the yucatan. That is when we will know. The is now showing the storm coming off fl between NSB and MELB area which is surely subject to change. Keep an eye out especially after the Yucatan cuz the possibility for stalling or running quickly exists.
peace
Thanks! My family is also as ready as can be, but we do live on the water (on the Turnbull Bay Creek) and we did have some really nasty tornadoes last year with so we are keeping a very close watch on this one. But then, considering how we have been spared this year and how much suffering others have had we really, really, cannot complain.
Peace and good luck to you!
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Charley(eyewall), Ivan, Jeanne, Dennis, Wilma, Irma, Ian (eyewall), Nicole
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NewWatcher
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 388
Loc: Port Orange, FL
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yes i have a friend who lives on the waterway. See over here I am high and dry even for a cat 5 from the east so i feel much safer even tho i am on a small lake (ret pond LOL)
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Pam in Volusia County
According to Colleen A ... "I AM A HURRICANE FREAK"
2007 Predictions 16/9/6
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trinibaje
Weather Guru
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Posts: 136
Loc: MIAMI, FLORIDA
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Quote:
Accuweather has made a major move south with their landfall (it used to center at Punta Gorda). They also have it a Cat 1 coming ashore in the south Everglades near Flamingo.
http://hurricane.accuweather.com/hurrica...;imagetype=move
that is my thinking ... Brian Norcross called for naples entry.... i think he is going to very accurate.
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-----------MY 2005 PREDICTION--------
15/10/5
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JMII
Weather Master
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Posts: 489
Loc: Margate, Florida
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Quote:
Keep an eye out especially after the Yucatan cuz the possibility for stalling or running quickly exists.
This storm is getting on my nerves - wait, wait, almost there, wait, a little further, oh no look out here she comes - is the way this is going to play out. The good news that almost all the models agree: landfall in SW FL at Cat 2 level. However we can't rule out Cat 3 level just yet, and "SW FL" covers a huge area from Tampa thru the Keys. At this point the 5 day forecast has turned into a 7 day event 
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South FL Native... experienced many tropical systems, put up the panels for:
David 79 - Floyd 87 - Andrew 92 - Georges 98 - Frances 04 - Wilma 05 - Matthew 16 - Irma 17
Lost our St James City rental property to Ian 22
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NewWatcher
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 388
Loc: Port Orange, FL
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Doesnt it seem as though there is dry air entrainment and that the eye is getting elongated??
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Pam in Volusia County
According to Colleen A ... "I AM A HURRICANE FREAK"
2007 Predictions 16/9/6
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engicedave
Weather Hobbyist
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Posts: 70
Loc:
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I still have a GUT FEELING that this thing is going to take off and people are going to be caught off-guard.
People are now being told "Late Monday" and if this takes off early on say saturday and gets here late Sunday, people are going to panic hard.
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meranto
Verified CFHC User
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Posts: 12
Loc: Ridderkerk, Netherlands (51.52...
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If you look at the latest Cancun radar image and high res. vis. satelite images (not so clear) you can see the "starfish" pattern inside the eye, like Isabel had
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craigm
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 327
Loc: Palm City, Florida
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Maddie,
go to the main page of this site there are a couple links to the models.
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Why I'm here:
Weather hobbyist
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UKCloudgazer
Verified CFHC User
Reged:
Posts: 21
Loc: Wallasey
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Here is the moving spaghetti link from this site. Hope it's what you were wanting...
http://flhurricane.com/modelanimator.php?24
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vineyardsaker
Weather Guru
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Posts: 150
Loc: New Smyrna Beach, FL
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Quote:
yes i have a friend who lives on the waterway. See over here I am high and dry even for a cat 5 from the east so i feel much safer even tho i am on a small lake (ret pond LOL)
In our case, if we have reasons to suspect any hurricane force winds we will evacuate to Orlando to a friend's place which is very sturdy and away from water. With my wife, my three kids and I spend about 2 hours in a walk-in closet after a tornado passed over our neighbour's house (it was pitch dark, but we heared it very well, even in the hurricane force winds, our roof made a loud "CRAAAAK" and our windows almost popped out. The next day our neighbour's house had part of its roof ripped off) and we promised each other that we never, ever would stay for another hurricane.
I wonder what will happen for the Biketober fest and how many of these bikers will attempt to drive around in the storm (most of these folks come from up north and have no idea what a hurricane looks like). Let's hope that we do not have too many casualites.
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Charley(eyewall), Ivan, Jeanne, Dennis, Wilma, Irma, Ian (eyewall), Nicole
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maddie
Verified CFHC User
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Posts: 15
Loc: Port Richey, Florida
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Having went through all of the Hurricanes last year and seeing first hand the unpredictibilty of these storms, I can completely understand what you are saying......
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