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Archives 2000s >> 2005 News Talkbacks

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KC
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Sun
Posts: 87
Loc: Naples, FL
Re: Models?? [Re: maddie]
      #61264 - Sat Oct 22 2005 06:35 AM

Collier County has another emergency mtg this morning so we will be watching for the latest from them as well as the local mets. Guess TWC will be moving their reporters down closer to Marco. Just saw a clip from Fort Myers. The waiting game is frustrating.

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danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3520
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Safe Area?? [Re: danielw]
      #61265 - Sat Oct 22 2005 06:37 AM

Most of the Weather Service Products that I viewed last night. Recommended evacuation to a location...NORTH Of Orlando.

HURRICANE Wilma LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
530 AM EDT SAT OCT 22 2005 (edited~danielw)

EVACUATING
RESIDENTS ARE URGED TO SEEK SHELTER NORTH OF ORLANDO IF THEY CHOOSE
NOT TO STAY AT THE DESIGNATED SHELTER AT FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL
UNIVERSITY. A MANDATORY EVACUATION ORDER FOR ALL MOBILE HOME
DWELLERS AND SPECIAL NEEDS CLIENTS IS IN EFFECT AS OF 6 AM EDT THIS
MORNING. MONROE COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT WILL MAKE A DECISION
REGARDING MANDATORY EVACUATION FOR ALL KEYS RESIDENTS LATER THIS
MORNING.
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/productview.php?pil=HLSEYW&max=51


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maddie
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Thu
Posts: 15
Loc: Port Richey, Florida
Re: Track and Watches [Re: danielw]
      #61266 - Sat Oct 22 2005 06:39 AM

Thank you , I appreciate the heads up ...I think I am just going to stick with you guys and NHC from now on..I wish I would have known about this website last year......

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StPeteBill
Weather Watcher


Reged: Wed
Posts: 42
Loc: Pinellas County
Re: Track and Watches [Re: maddie]
      #61268 - Sat Oct 22 2005 06:50 AM

I am in St Pete and at this point I am not going to bother preparing the house here. If things change I think there will still be plenty of time.

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maddie
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Thu
Posts: 15
Loc: Port Richey, Florida
Re: Track and Watches [Re: StPeteBill]
      #61269 - Sat Oct 22 2005 06:55 AM

Any chance that that trough coming down from the North will be slower in getting here than they anticipate?

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StPeteBill
Weather Watcher


Reged: Wed
Posts: 42
Loc: Pinellas County
Re: Track and Watches [Re: maddie]
      #61270 - Sat Oct 22 2005 07:00 AM

Quote:

Any chance that that trough coming down from the North will be slower in getting here than they anticipate?




Well Maddie, how many times have we been promised a cold front this time of year and it stalls out? They get our hopes up for cooler weather and then it falls through.


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maddie
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Thu
Posts: 15
Loc: Port Richey, Florida
Re: Track and Watches [Re: StPeteBill]
      #61271 - Sat Oct 22 2005 07:05 AM

Pretty much what I was thinking........then I guess my next question would be , if that happens , then what with Wilma? Think I am more nervous than usual given the last minute shift with Charlie last year....

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disneyfanfl
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 24
Loc: Jacksonville, FL
Re: Track and Watches [Re: maddie]
      #61272 - Sat Oct 22 2005 07:15 AM

I understand that the LBAR is an older, less reliable model but I amazed how consistent it has been (wrong or not). Can someone explain what it is that causes this model to change very little over this whole period? It just seems to have a thing for Tampa!

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emackl
Storm Tracker


Reged: Sat
Posts: 205
Loc: Indianapolis
Re: Track and Watches [Re: disneyfanfl]
      #61275 - Sat Oct 22 2005 07:31 AM

New Thread Up!!!

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Mayor of Moronia
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Wed
Posts: 16
Loc: Bayonet Point, Pasco County
Re: Track and Watches [Re: disneyfanfl]
      #61279 - Sat Oct 22 2005 07:57 AM

I've noticed the same thing. Several of the variables point to Tampa, and at times the LBAR isnt alone in its conclusions. Historically October storms come ashore between...say...Cedar Key and Naples. So LBAR is definitely in the ball park. If you watch NHC over the years they tend to pick the path in the middle of the model cluster. And the storms generally stray at the last minute. I suspect, too, that something else is at work here...something unsaid. Last year NHC had Charley making a direct hit on Tampa. Many people fled to Orlando. Guess what? The storm went through Orlando. Many of us were annoyed with NHC. Me, because my pregnant daughter spent the night in a closet right beneath where the eye went across. Me, because another daughter and grandchildren left Tampa and went to Bartow where they ran into the storm. Being an old fool, I stayed home...because the storms always go someplace else. But Wilma makes me nervous. What I fear is NHC getting it wrong (again) and the local clowns waiting too long to evacuate people. I have to testify in a trial on Monday, and I cant get a straight answer out of anyone if the courthouse will be open. It wont be pretty if Wilma turns to the north.

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