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Azores #96L fails to complete transition into a Sub-Tropical Storm. Elsewhere, weak low pressure in Caribbean may linger into next week.
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Archives >> 2005 News Talkbacks

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Joshua
Weather Watcher


Reged: Tue
Posts: 43
Loc: Fort Lauderdale, FL
Re: Thoughts [Re: maddie]
      #62065 - Sun Oct 23 2005 08:38 AM

Quote:

I guess as parents we will just have to decide for ourselves if we should send our kids to school on Monday or not.....I have a quick question , how wide is the eye of the storm now and what is the approx size of the storm ?




Hurricane force winds extend outward some 70 miles, with tropical storm force winds up to 200 miles from the center.


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ftlaudbob
Storm Chaser


Reged: Tue
Posts: 811
Loc: Rhode Island 26.19N 80.10W
Re: Thoughts [Re: Joshua]
      #62066 - Sun Oct 23 2005 08:39 AM

Looks like the core is trying to re-develope.That is what we do not want to see.

--------------------

Survived:
Gloria,Bob,Katrina,Wilma and a bunch of tropical storms.


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Joshua
Weather Watcher


Reged: Tue
Posts: 43
Loc: Fort Lauderdale, FL
Re: Thoughts [Re: cainwatch]
      #62067 - Sun Oct 23 2005 08:41 AM

Quote:

Anyone know when Brevard will start to get Tropical force winds?




According to the current NWS forecast, tonight you will most likely get gusts to tropical storm force.


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Joshua
Weather Watcher


Reged: Tue
Posts: 43
Loc: Fort Lauderdale, FL
Re: Thoughts [Re: ftlaudbob]
      #62068 - Sun Oct 23 2005 08:42 AM

Yeah, I've been seeing that for a couple hours now as well. We'll see what the NHC says about it in the coming hours.

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Tazmanian93
Weather Master


Reged: Sun
Posts: 481
Loc: Tampa
Re: Thoughts [Re: Joshua]
      #62069 - Sun Oct 23 2005 08:47 AM

Good morning all, what a diff a few hours makes, referring to the Front and how far it has now dipped down. Also, looks like she may be jiggling just a tiny tiny bit E or SE of the forecast point?

--------------------
Don't knock the weather; nine-tenths of the people couldn't start a conversation if it didn't change once in a while.

Go Bucs!!!!!!!!!

****************

Ed


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chase 22
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Fri
Posts: 82
Loc: San Angelo, TX
Re: Thoughts [Re: Joshua]
      #62070 - Sun Oct 23 2005 08:49 AM

for anybody interested. Fox 13 in Tampa has started their ongoing live coverage.

--------------------
Matt


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R-U-Q-R-U
Registered User


Reged: Sun
Posts: 3
Loc: Seminole County
Where are models available? [Re: Joshua]
      #62071 - Sun Oct 23 2005 08:51 AM

Hi,

New to the discussion board.

I know that this site and Weather Underground provide model updates every three hours or so. Are there any sites that provide other model runs?

Thanks.


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Tazmanian93
Weather Master


Reged: Sun
Posts: 481
Loc: Tampa
Re: Thoughts [Re: chase 22]
      #62072 - Sun Oct 23 2005 08:55 AM

Dr. Lyons was just on and did not seem terribly impressed with the smaller coc and at this point he is saying ((((("at this point"))))) not seeing it develop into a Maj Cat Hurr. He even mentioned everyones hopes that it is POSSIBLE for it to split the uprights, S Fl and N Cuba

--------------------
Don't knock the weather; nine-tenths of the people couldn't start a conversation if it didn't change once in a while.

Go Bucs!!!!!!!!!

****************

Ed


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chase 22
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Fri
Posts: 82
Loc: San Angelo, TX
Re: Thoughts [Re: Tazmanian93]
      #62074 - Sun Oct 23 2005 09:15 AM

Is it still even possible for it to "split the uprights"? I know that with weather anything is possible, but is that a scenario that the NHC is still looking at?

--------------------
Matt


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evergladesangler
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Fri
Posts: 71
Re: Thoughts [Re: Tazmanian93]
      #62075 - Sun Oct 23 2005 09:17 AM

The southern side of the COC is going to be back over land soon. The official track is too far north, IMHO.

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Tazmanian93
Weather Master


Reged: Sun
Posts: 481
Loc: Tampa
Re: Thoughts [Re: chase 22]
      #62076 - Sun Oct 23 2005 09:19 AM

Only repeating what Dr. Lyons stated. If he indicated that it was still POSSIBLE, then perhaps it is, we could only hope, looks as if at least a portion of the large outer eye will interact w/ Cuba also

--------------------
Don't knock the weather; nine-tenths of the people couldn't start a conversation if it didn't change once in a while.

Go Bucs!!!!!!!!!

****************

Ed


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Sadie
Weather Watcher


Reged: Fri
Posts: 44
Loc: Arcadia, FL
Re: Thoughts [Re: Joshua]
      #62077 - Sun Oct 23 2005 09:23 AM

Jim Farrel, the chief met at WINK TV, Ft Myers, made two points this morning I think are worth underscoring here.

First, that unlike most hurricanes, this storm has the heaviest weather on her NORTH side.

Second, that because of the speed she will be carrying as she crosses the state, we should NOT expect the storm to weaken significantly as she moves inland.

--------------------
"...Grandmother the Earth. That power is here all the time. It is continuous, and nobody controls it." Wallace Black Elk, Lakota


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chase 22
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Fri
Posts: 82
Loc: San Angelo, TX
Re: Thoughts [Re: evergladesangler]
      #62078 - Sun Oct 23 2005 09:24 AM

It looks to have moved due East until the last couple of frames where it looks to have resumed a more NE track. If I'm not mistaken, the models predicted such a movement.

--------------------
Matt

Edited by chase 22 (Sun Oct 23 2005 09:25 AM)


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native
Weather Guru


Reged: Tue
Posts: 148
Loc: SE Florida 26.31N 80.11W
Re: Thoughts [Re: evergladesangler]
      #62079 - Sun Oct 23 2005 09:24 AM

NHC's been pretty right on so I'm gonna stick with them...I mean to shift the track for a field goal (b/w S.FL & N. Cuba) something awfully drastic would have to happen. I just don't see some weather hiccup "sneaking up" on them to throw a monkey wrench into their current track.

HF - Read your awesome post (as per usual) I don't like the possible merging of Wilma & Alpha for the extreme NE...those poor people do not need anymore rain. At this point though, with the temps...would it not turn into freezing rain or would it still be too much "tropical" moisture for that? Just curious (and concerned for them)


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native
Weather Guru


Reged: Tue
Posts: 148
Loc: SE Florida 26.31N 80.11W
Re: Thoughts [Re: Sadie]
      #62080 - Sun Oct 23 2005 09:26 AM

Um...that's incorrect. It's the south side of the "track" that'll have it worse.

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Tazmanian93
Weather Master


Reged: Sun
Posts: 481
Loc: Tampa
Re: Thoughts [Re: cainwatch]
      #62081 - Sun Oct 23 2005 09:28 AM

More specifically, here is a link for your area

http://weather.noaa.gov/cgi-bin/iwszone3

--------------------
Don't knock the weather; nine-tenths of the people couldn't start a conversation if it didn't change once in a while.

Go Bucs!!!!!!!!!

****************

Ed


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evergladesangler
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Fri
Posts: 71
Re: Thoughts [Re: native]
      #62082 - Sun Oct 23 2005 09:30 AM

GFDL shifted from Lee/Collier border landfall at 00Z to Flamingo at 06Z. This is a huge jump. If GFS confirms a southward move then the track will be coming south as all the other models are trending that way.

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Sadie
Weather Watcher


Reged: Fri
Posts: 44
Loc: Arcadia, FL
Re: Thoughts [Re: native]
      #62083 - Sun Oct 23 2005 09:32 AM

Quote:

Um...that's incorrect. It's the south side of the "track" that'll have it worse.




Can't help wondering who's right. Thoughts?

Edit: Sadie - I am not a met but I can tell you there is an area of deep disturbance that is expected to run north of Wilma - possibly crossing the Tampa Bay area heading towards Orlando - late tonight into Monday morning ahead of Wilma. Generally, the NE quadrant of any hurricane is where a larger risk for tornadic activity is. But, don't be fooled by that - tornados could pop up anywhere.

Edited by RedingtonBeachGuy (Sun Oct 23 2005 09:37 AM)


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efaulkSWFLA
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Wed
Posts: 17
Loc: Fort Myers, Florida 26.46N 81.80W
Re: Thoughts [Re: Sadie]
      #62084 - Sun Oct 23 2005 09:33 AM

Quote:

Quote:

Um...that's incorrect. It's the south side of the "track" that'll have it worse.




Can't help wondering who's right. Thoughts?




Im in Ft. Myers.. I heard Ferrell say the same.. North side wetter, windier.. South side bigger surge, obviously.. Who knows....


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emackl
Storm Tracker


Reged: Sat
Posts: 205
Loc: Indianapolis
Re: Thoughts [Re: Sadie]
      #62085 - Sun Oct 23 2005 09:33 AM

"Maybe" he said that because of the 5:00 disco

MOST
OF THE DEEP CONVECTION DISPLACED TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OF THE
CENTER

That's all I can think of. Otherwise, a west coast landfall should result in the south side being most intense.


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