NewWatcher
Storm Tracker
Reged: Wed
Posts: 384
Loc: Port Orange, FL 29.11N 81.02W
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hey christine
yes floater one is on 96L. the easiest way to tell is to click on the lat/lon
so when that comes up you can tell where the floater is
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Pam in Volusia County
According to Colleen A ... "I AM A HURRICANE FREAK"
2007 Predictions 16/9/6
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Margie
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged: Fri
Posts: 1191
Loc: Twin Cities
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Quote:
Is Floater 1 on 96L? 'cause if it is, than I don't see 96L anymore???
It is a little harder to see now, but the low is around 11.5N, 46.5W or thereabouts. The convection from the tropical wave is a little ahead of that, and extending up to about 14N. Use the Floater image.
Edited by danielw (Mon Jul 10 2006 11:10 PM)
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harmlc.ath.cx
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Tue
Posts: 54
Loc: Longwood
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Quote:
Out of curiosity, do you think that the earlier predictions were overshot a bit because of last year, because I sure don't want to deal with 16 or 17 storms in Aug and Sept.
St. Pete
The art of predicting storms for the future storm season is a tricky one. I can't imagine that many people predicted that we'd have the amount of storms that we did last year. Many people might have chosen a more agressive amount of storms then they normally would in lue of last season. I still think that the chances of 17 storms is a resonable one, but so far the high shear and African dust has killed most of the tropical waves that have chances.
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sara33
Weather Guru
Reged: Wed
Posts: 134
Loc: West Central Florida
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Does the Shear usually relax later in the season as well as the African Dust. I realize that without these factors that there probably would have been a whole lot more going on right now.
I was looking at Weather Underground and Jeff Masters had a graph of shear this year compared to last year and last year was considerably lower, at this point it looks like, well, normal for this time of year.
Thanks,
Christine
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sara33
Weather Guru
Reged: Wed
Posts: 134
Loc: West Central Florida
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"The wave along 46 west has a curved cloud structure that extends up to about 15 north. This wave is moving west at about 6 degrees longitude per day. Microwave satellite images show clusters of thunderstorms and a slight rotary motion in the thunderstorm pattern. This is often the beginning signs of a possible low level or upper level feature forming. For the first time this tropical season the shear has relaxed over the Lesser Antilles and over the eastern Caribbean. Current shear in the path of this wave is genrally less than 10kts and that's not enough to kill the wave. Another problem with this season thus far has been higher than normal surface pressures over the Caribbean. Current surface data indicates that surface pressures are lower today compared to last week and are near normal for the most part. If surface pressure continues to lower and the shear continues to relax over the eastern Caribbean and near the Lesser Antilles this wave could try to organize in a few days. This wave will move into the Lesser Antilles Wednesday night and Thursday".
This is a quote from Accuweather.
Are they talking about 96L or is this another wave? Also, what do the surface pressures have to do with development? If this is too complicated to explain, please try to post a link.
I have not heard about this before?
Thanks, Christine
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typhoon_tip
Meteorologist
Reged: Wed
Posts: 551
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harmlc.ath.cx ,
Some conceptual information you may find interesting. Last year was big for what is known as the "Bahama Bomber" in some tropical circles. was one of these...
I personally observed fewer than normal "strong" tropical waves emerging off Africa's west coast last year. A hypothesis I have been toying with is that many weaker than normal waves were present. These then availed of unusually persistent favorable environment existing across the Caribbean, Gulf and Bahamas. A weak wave doesn't mean it can't be a seed, is what is important to remember...particularly if the other physics are overwhelming. Some of those can include unusually strong and persistent U/A anticyclone and higher than normal SSTs.
As to your dust concerns, if we use last year as an example: It is noted, during July last year there was a large dust cloud over the Atlantic, between Africa and Islands.
There is and has been speculatoin that this year's activity may have more central Atlantic origins, than did 2005. If that is true, one climate-based aspect we must remember is that those regions tend to fire up their engines at a later date. There is time between now and August for recession of the westerlies more polarward. If that happens, we would likely see a rapid reduction in the amount of tropical wave relative shear, because deeper layer easterlies would take over. The shear you speak of should relax - no guarantees.
Once last year's Cape Verdi season came to life, we witnessed a kind of "split" in the tracks of developed TCs. The dust had settled, the shear had relaxed, but the darn things started curving N before reaching 50W... Meanwhile, the western Caribbean kept the ensemble line cranking. Some how, wave activity in those later summer months were fueling both.
Still, by this time last year , Brett, Cindy had already been recorded, while was decaying inland. At one point, had 130kt max sustained! All of these failed to develop E of the Leeward and Windward Islands (most were Caribbean developers). So, unless some spectacularly explosive stuff takes off, we are probably destined to less than last years performance for these earlier innings - in fact, that is likely a lock. I am, however, intrigued by the ideas for more activity expectation in the middle Atlantic. We'll just have to wait and see where the conveyor establishes and how difficult it is to get these to stay on a westerly course before turning prematurely. This is why there is speculation that the East Coast is more prone than last year, because the mean development and track expectation is more Cape Verdi friendly. And, that is a season that really begins toward the end of this month.
John
Edited by typhoon_tip (Mon Jul 10 2006 11:14 PM)
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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged: Wed
Posts: 1369
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl. 30.16N 85.76W
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may some mets can make a post/comment about the High in the north atlantic and its forecast strength and position.. been looking at Global models... it appears that the Atlantic High (or atleast in the runs) is going to weaken some and not have the same pattern setup we have seen in the last two months.... anyone see this...?
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www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh
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danielw
Moderator
Reged: Wed
Posts: 3384
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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I was hoping Tip-John would answer this in his post, but it must have come up after he began composing his post.
I'll take a quik stab at your question.
In layman's terms.
Sea Level pressure is considered to be 29.92" of mercury, or 1013 millibars.
Observed pressure above the 1013 mb reading is considered High pressure.
Pressures lower that 1013 mb is considered Low pressure and last year I believe the lowest pressure in a Hurricane was 's 882mb. ( I'll have to double check that pressure)
High pressure basically keeps the storm clouds from reaching their peak height. Similar to putting an upturned glass over a plant. It will grow, but it's limited.
Low pressure has the opposite effect. It allows clouds to grow, and grow and grow. You get the idea. Nearly unlimited cloud growth potential.
One of the limits to cloud height growth is Shear. Shear limits the height of the cloud by blowing, or shearing, the cloud tops off. They keep trying to grow, but the shear blows the tops away.
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Margie
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged: Fri
Posts: 1191
Loc: Twin Cities
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NHC home page is no longer empty.
I updated the eastpac thread.
I know...who cares about the East Pacific. But, hey, this one's gonna be named "Bud." I swear that's true (and if "Bud" is ever retired, does that mean "Bubba" could be in the queue?).
Edited by danielw (Tue Jul 11 2006 09:40 PM)
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hurricaneguy
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Fri
Posts: 80
Loc: Greeneville, TN 36.26N 82.72W
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Accuweather.com says that "For the first time this tropical season the shear has relaxed over the Lesser Antilles and over the eastern Caribbean. Current shear in the path of this wave is genrally less than 10kts and that's not enough to kill the wave. Another problem with this season thus far has been higher than normal surface pressures over the Caribbean. Current surface data indicates that surface pressures are lower today compared to last week and are near normal for the most part. If surface pressure continues to lower and the shear continues to relax over the eastern Caribbean and near the Lesser Antilles this wave could try to organize in a few days." Now that the wave has caught Accuweather.com's eye then there maybe a little bite left in this wave down the road. We will have to see if the shear will kill the wave or just slow it down, which maybe what the maybe suggesting as well.
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Margie
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged: Fri
Posts: 1191
Loc: Twin Cities
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Well, just remember that Accuweather recycled their July 2005 prediction for this year...and thinks that Nova Scotia has a much higher chance of a hurricane strike than the FL panhandle and upper peninsula (i.e. the only place that has been hit so far this year -- Alberto).
I looked at CIMSS and it did appear that wind shear was decreasing just a smidgen ahead of the wave, but beyond that, was a goodly amt of shear. But Ed did mention the showing less shear in two days time so maybe I'm not understanding the big picture.
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Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp
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cieldumort
Moderator
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1020
Loc: Texas 30.40N 97.80W
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3E is probably going to be not very notable. Eventually, cooler temps and shear will eat away at it, and before then, it's just miles and miles of blue seas - no land - no chance of ever being retired.
90E is the one you want to really keep an eye on for landfall, you know. Strong model support for taking it near or possibly into the Baja. 
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HanKFranK
User
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC 33.56N 81.82W
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currently and continuing for several days most of the globals have a large area of unfavorable westerly shear in the caribbean extending ne. i very much doubt the 96L system is going to do anything while it is dealing with this area.
the area east of the bahamas has essentially nothing in terms of circulation (undercut mlc is seen in the IR-2 left from the convective burst earlier), not much shear but fast easterlies at low levels. synoptically not too terrible if this thing can keep flaring. it'll be running over florida in a couple days, most likely in an undeveloped state, but there are some model runs picking up on it and doing a little with it, so not totally uninteresting.
of the opinion that 3-e and its trailer (which should be bud and carlotta by mid week) are amplify the upstream features more than the models can read for now, and probably result in a different evolution of the upper features than what the globals have right now. in other words, if something starts showing up suddenly as developing on our side of the pond, it might be a legit system on the way. this is just speculation based on what sometimes happens... really the appareance of the basin is typical july, with the strong and upper lows everywhere in spite of the jet being well to the north. convection may be picking up some and globals are tuning the shear down some, but it will take a pretty dramatic change from the start of the month for more than struggling development.
HF 0636z11july
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danielw
Moderator
Reged: Wed
Posts: 3384
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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Short Sunrise summary.
Pick a Floater. If you have time.
There's not much to watch but as Hank said. It a bit busier than it has been.
W of Dry Tortugas, FL http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex.html
E of Andros, Bahamas http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/float2.html
E of the Lesser Antilles, http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/float1.html
Mona Passage ( E Cuba)
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/trop-atl.html
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DaveH
Registered User
Reged: Sun
Posts: 3
Loc: Winter Springs, Fl
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danielw,
This is what makes this site great. Thanks. Your 11:29 post answered many questions for me. 
Edited by DaveH (Tue Jul 11 2006 08:03 AM)
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Solak
Verified CFHC User
Reged: Mon
Posts: 11
Loc: Raleigh, NC
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Interesting item out of our local discussion this morning.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
255 AM EDT TUE JUL 11 2006
.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
WESTWARD EXTENSION OF BERMUDA HIGH WILL RESULT IN TYPICAL SUMMER
PATTERN ACROSS CENTRAL NC THROUGH WED NIGHT. ANY CONVECTION THAT
DEVELOPS OVER AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN WED AFTERNOON WILL BE
ISOLATED AS LOW LEVEL FOCUS AND UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT MINIMAL.
LEANED HEAVILY TOWARD IN THE SHORT TERM AS SUSPICIOUS OF
MOVING A SURFACE BOUNDARY STEADILY SE TOWARD/ACROSS THE AREA THU-FRI
AND DEVELOPING A TROPICAL SYSTEM OFF THE FL ATLANTIC WATERS WED-THU.
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Margie
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged: Fri
Posts: 1191
Loc: Twin Cities
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Quote:
Interesting item out of our local discussion this morning.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
255 AM EDT TUE JUL 11 2006
LEANED HEAVILY TOWARD IN THE SHORT TERM AS SUSPICIOUS OF
So he's saying ignore the NAM...tropical storm formation is unlikely.
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Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp
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amonty
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Thu
Posts: 66
Loc: Clearwater, Fl
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I don't think "suspicious" is the same thing as "ignore" I think he's saying that it's something to watch but not likely. IMO
Here is what he's talking about>> 
Link 
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Ed in Va
Weather Master
Reged: Fri
Posts: 488
Loc: 36.02N 75.67W
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I agree that development is unlikely, but we do seem to have some history this year with storms moving towards the mid-Atlantic Coast, as Alberto went that way after coming ashore in FL and the near Beryl hitting NC and VA last week. Way too early to be definitive, but maybe we're establishing a pattern for this year.
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Survived Carol and Edna '54 in Maine. Guess this kind of dates me!
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Ron Basso
Storm Tracker
Reged: Thu
Posts: 267
Loc: hernando beach, FL
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Quote:
I agree that development is unlikely, but we do seem to have some history this year with storms moving towards the mid-Atlantic Coast, as Alberto went that way after coming ashore in FL and the near Beryl hitting NC and VA last week. Way too early to be definitive, but maybe we're establishing a pattern for this year.
The most recent 12Z run has changed its tune with the "up the east coast" circulation. It now takes a weak circulation NW across S FL into the NE GOM. I don't put much stock in the for tropical development so unless we see some real development or other models pick up on it, I doubt its much concern. JB, however, does highlight the area in the SE Bahamas as an area of concern.
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/nam/12/index_slp_m_loop.shtml
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RJB
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