MikeC
Admin
Reged: Sun
Posts: 2798
Loc: Orlando, FL 28.49N 81.47W
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The low pressure area in the Gulf that has been tracked over the last few days is causing great amounts of rain over eastern Texas now, and still has a chance to form into a depression overnight, but not a great one.
Even if the storm does not develop, it should be yet another huge rain event for Texas.
Other than this, there is a tropical wave east of the Caribbean islands that has a small chance to develop over time, but I wouldn't count on it.
More to come later...
Radar Imagery
Corpus Christi, TX
Brownsville, TX
Houston/Galveston, TX
99L:
Animated Model Plot
Animated Model Plot of 99L
SFWMD Model Plot
Visible Satellite Floater
IR
Animated Floater with overlays
More Satellite Images of system
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danielw
Moderator
Reged: Wed
Posts: 3403
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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Looks like the weather may be getting more severe in the Brownsville NWS area.
AT 1027 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM...PRODUCING A WATERSPOUT ABOUT 23 MILES NORTHEAST OF PORT MANSFIELD. LITTLE MOTION WAS INDICATED.
THIS WATERSPOUT WILL OTHERWISE REMAIN AWAY FROM SIGNIFICANT COASTAL
LANDMARKS OVER THE INDICATED AREA.
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=srh&wwa=special%20marine%20warning
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cieldumort
Moderator
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1047
Loc: Texas 30.40N 97.80W
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For the benefit of those who may just now be joining us, and/or missed the last of the prior thread:
1030 PM EDT TUE JUL 25 2006
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
AN ELONGATED SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER SOUTH TEXAS EXTENDING FROM NEAR MCALLEN NORTHEASTWARD TO BAFFIN BAY IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS... ALONG WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS IN SQUALLS... OVER PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL AREAS.
RADAR AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST THAT A (NEW) LOW PRESSURE CENTER MAY BE TRYING TO FORM ALONG THE TEXAS COAST NEAR BAFFIN BAY.
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD STILL FORM IF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES OR DEVELOPS FARTHER TO THE EAST OVER THE GULF
OF MEXICO.
REGARDLESS OF WHETHER A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMS...THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BRING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL TO PORTIONS OF THE
TEXAS COASTAL BEND REGION...THE UPPER TEXAS COAST...AND SOUTHERN LOUISIANA DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWARD.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATWOAT+shtml/260208.shtml
Edited by danielw (Wed Jul 26 2006 02:49 AM)
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dem05
User
Reged: Wed
Posts: 368
Loc: Port Charlotte, FL
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Close but no cigar in Texas folks...this puppy is moving inland now, but was an almost. All it needed was to be all of 50 miles further east at best. A miss is as good as a mile though sometimes. Just ask my parents. The live at Rotonda West on the Cape Haze Peninsula in Charlotte County, FL and the neighborhood had minimul damage and only Cat 1 gusts at best during . This wasn't but 5 miles from the eye on the west side (weak side). This is the way it works sometimes and I'm glad we had no development from this invest. However, the rain will still soak Texas Pretty Good. With that said,I dopaint the examplewith a purpose...there is no 50 or 100 milerule with these things...Under the right circumstances...they can pretty much develop and/or strengthen right up to the coast.
Things are about toget busier in the Atlantic folks. If you were tuned into the previous thread, a relitively thunderstorm less tropical low is approaching the Windwards. It's faced yet another example of unfavorable conditions. However, that southern extension has stayed together under the assualt of dry air, dust, shear, and nasy trade winds. This is one where I say..."development not likely, but track it til its gone." But once again, I doubt development will occur. However, it is unquestionable that the Atlantic will begin to rev it's engines in the coming weeks. Let's just hope for a season like 1983 (Link: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tracks/1983.gif) folks still need time to recover.
Edited by dem05 (Wed Jul 26 2006 02:50 AM)
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Clark
Meteorologist
Reged: Wed
Posts: 1710
Loc: Great Lakes 45.95N 84.55W
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Agree wholeheartedly -- another case of close, but no cigar. The visible satellite appearance this morning is quite impressive, situated in a fairly favorable upper level environment, but more or less is showing off a mid-level low center rather than the surface center. The two seem to be off by about 75 miles -- the mid-level center is due south of Houston/Galveston over the NW Gulf, while the surface center is just SE of Corpus Christi. We'd have a TD if it was up to the NE with the mid-level center...but alas, no matter. Ultimately, it doesn't matter whether it is classified or not given the torrential rains and isolated severe weather it is bringing.
--------------------
Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)
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HanKFranK
User
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC 33.56N 81.82W
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coupla things. the texas system 98L is inland, as everybody already knows, and out of the picture for tropical development. that's another near miss in this early season.
the wave entering the islands has more convection but is racing into shear. the southern part has the best turning but the worst shear prospects... the northern part may reactivate near the bahamas, and is likely the only part that can potentially be a nuisance. globals are still tracking this feature, but none show it having any significant development. it will be near florida late in the weekend.
strong wave in a very stable, dry air mass around 35-40w shouldn't produce any convection for about 2-3 days... it's moving quickly too and likely bait for the shear monster.
notable that is still trying to produce tropical systems in early august. first noted this consistent pattern a couple days ago.. jeff masters mentioned the leader in his blog this morning. since the has been very conservative and grounded in reality this year, these week-out phantoms may end up amounting to something. the leader develops off west africa around august 3-4, races by the northern antilles on august 7-8, through the bahamas august 10, and is positioned east of georgia on august 11. too far out to buy anything more than a longtracker potential if it does develop. that's an over-the-horizon solution... if the models are still sniffing and barking around this tree by month's end we'll have something worth talking about.
HF 1458z26july
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bobw211
Verified CFHC User
Reged: Tue
Posts: 18
Loc: WPB, Florida
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where do u get that a tropical system is developing
and is that the website u used for the model 
im not sure if im looking at the model wrong or not
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/
NCEP models North Atlantic map option
click on models and forecasts, then look at the north atlantic option and click a resolution. run the loop. the run goes past the 5 days shown on moe models, out to day 16. it's really unreliable past a few days, but when it shows something over and over it merits attention.
HF 2040z26july
Edited by HanKFranK (Wed Jul 26 2006 04:41 PM)
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teal61
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Sun
Posts: 61
Loc: Spring, TX (30.1N 95.5W)
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Thanks HF, we are flying from Houston to Nassau on August 8th and will be there through the 13th. I hope that doesn't verify 
just watch the situation. doesn't mean much from more than a few days out. -HF
Edited by HanKFranK (Wed Jul 26 2006 04:42 PM)
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ChrisT
Verified CFHC User
Reged: Wed
Posts: 12
Loc: Coral Gables/Sanibel Island 25.68N 80.26W
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Some pretty blustery conditions along the Texas coast this morning. The Galveston Pier recorded a gust to hurricane force in a squall this morning at 10:06 AM (CDT).
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=gpst2
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bobw211
Verified CFHC User
Reged: Tue
Posts: 18
Loc: WPB, Florida
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strangely there is no gale warning. the link i had before was elswere.
but there is a small craft advisory in affect
pretty gusty winds at galveston.
i noticed one of the wind gust were 65 knts (75 mph) that must be the hurricane conditions u were talking about
Edited by bobw211 (Wed Jul 26 2006 02:26 PM)
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MapMaster
Weather Guru
Reged: Tue
Posts: 138
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Look at this, 130 kt gust on 24th at about 1500 (I think)...waterspout?
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/show_plot.php?station=gpst2&meas=wdpr&uom=E
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bobw211
Verified CFHC User
Reged: Tue
Posts: 18
Loc: WPB, Florida
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i heard there was a waterspout stationary some were with this system that might be the one
or it could be an error with the wind gauge
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ChrisT
Verified CFHC User
Reged: Wed
Posts: 12
Loc: Coral Gables/Sanibel Island 25.68N 80.26W
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After seeing that data I assume the anemometer is faulty.
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HanKFranK
User
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC 33.56N 81.82W
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that longtrack system advertised by the 06Z is slower and hits a break in the ridge in the 12Z. run to run trends is what will count over time.
the wave entering the caribbean still has little support. the one further out is sort of split, according to the 205pm TWD. the big swirl of stratocumulus is now ahead of the lower end of the original wave, with it tailing back near 30w. there is a little bit of an bulge/reflection on the low amplitude trailer. if another trade surge doesn't steamroll it, might merit some attention in a couple of days.
HF 2050z26july
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bobw211
Verified CFHC User
Reged: Tue
Posts: 18
Loc: WPB, Florida
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Quote:
the wave entering the caribbean still has little support. the one further out is sort of split, according to the 205pm TWD. the big swirl of stratocumulus is now ahead of the lower end of the original wave, with it tailing back near 30w.
to the north of the wave there is an upper level low that is possibly preventing the wave from organization
if it backs off than we may be dealing with something (possibly)
i guess u could say its been an average season (except for Alberto) now that August is coming up things may start to get interesting
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Goosus
Verified CFHC User
Reged: Fri
Posts: 21
Loc: Boise ID
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Sometimes I don't get the .
The feature currently moving over TX should have been recognized as a TD by the National Hurricane Center at the least for a couple of days now. With the numbers of people potentially affected by this system, what kind of egg would they have had on their face if it stayed just a bit more offshore and something more significant exploded from this system before coming ashore?
Having met's argue about low vs. upper level circulation centers and such make no sense to the average citizen when they're getting pounded by heavy rain accompanied by wind.
Just look at this system today. Whether you look at it through visible or IR, radar loops, etc, it's clearly more than an area of disturbed weather. For most of the day, it's been spinning around a center, has good outflow, clear banding features, very cold cloud tops in the center core of thunderstorns, and it's even fairly symetrical in apprearance. Now they're getting 6 inches and more of rain over many parts of Eastern Texas with sustained winds and occasional gale force gusts at the coast. It sure looks like a tropical storm to me.
For all the non-systems they usually classify, to not classify this system is perplexing to me.
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Tony Cristaldi
NWS Meteorologist
Reged: Fri
Posts: 39
Loc: West Melbourne, Florida
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Quote:
Sometimes I don't get the .
The feature currently moving over TX should have been recognized as a TD by the National Hurricane Center at the least for a couple of days now. With the numbers of people potentially affected by this system, what kind of egg would they have had on their face if it stayed just a bit more offshore and something more significant exploded from this system before coming ashore?
Having met's argue about low vs. upper level circulation centers and such make no sense to the average citizen when they're getting pounded by heavy rain accompanied by wind.
Just look at this system today. Whether you look at it through visible or IR, radar loops, etc, it's clearly more than an area of disturbed weather. For most of the day, it's been spinning around a center, has good outflow, clear banding features, very cold cloud tops in the center core of thunderstorns, and it's even fairly symetrical in apprearance. Now they're getting 6 inches and more of rain over many parts of Eastern Texas with sustained winds and occasional gale force gusts at the coast. It sure looks like a tropical storm to me.
For all the non-systems they usually classify, to not classify this system is perplexing to me.
There was never a closed wind circulation with this system. Throughout the life of this system, the surface flow over the western GOMEX was out of the S-SE. The only closed vortex was a weak one that moved northward over Old Mexico and south Texas. Open tropical waves have been known to produce winds to TS force, and in some cases, gusts to hurricane force.
The weather conditions were well addressed by products issued by the and coastal Texas WFO's. Noone was in danger of winding up with "egg on their face".
Edited by Tony Cristaldi (Wed Jul 26 2006 08:18 PM)
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dem05
User
Reged: Wed
Posts: 368
Loc: Port Charlotte, FL
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Well...If it helps...The National Hurricane Center, cannot just call something a tropical depression. There are scientificly defined criteria for tropical cyclones, based on which, the National Hurricane Center operates. In this case, this system did not meet thecriteria to be a tropical depression. Just 'cause a semi-organized system in the tropics has winds of 30 miles an hour, isn't enough to call it some thing it's not. With that said, the Hurricane Center has done an excellent job of notifying the public on the threat for heavy rains and gusty winds through their Tropical Weather Outlook Product, and much like the "almost" tropical storm that went into the Carolinas about a month ago, they have maintained discussion of the system within the tropical weather outlook long after the development potential had come and gone...to continue to inform the public. Additionally, the National Weather Service has done an excellent job with their Flood watches, warnings and information. To that end, NOAA organizations have operated appropiately and the public was adequately informed.
I found this interesting while looking at Texas NWS websites today, maybe this helps to further describe the dedication of the National Hurricane Center and the National Weather Service when it comes to hurricanes. By the way, in all hearings and inquiries post the 2005 Hurricane Season, they were given A's for their organization, hardwork and effort to inform the public.
Hurricane Service Assesment Report: http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2006/s2656.htm
Outside of this, Leeward wave not overly impressive still, and I think it's a longshot at development....But I do think the track it till it'sgone mentality should still be assumed. Otherwise, Jeff Master's painted a pretty good picture of the tropics today...as well as the pros and cons on the depiction of an August 3 hurricane afftecting the Leewards by August 7. Here's his daily dish if you'd like to read: http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=434&tstamp=200607
EDIT: Tony was posting while I was typing...so I'm sorry for some redundancy within the post folks.
Edited by dem05 (Wed Jul 26 2006 08:45 PM)
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lawgator
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Sat
Posts: 75
Loc: E C Fla.
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Hey dem05, just a quick thanks for the link to Master's blog entry. That was very interesting and the graphic he used was very helpful. Appreciate the information you and others post on here for those of us (and in my case, quite a bit) less edumacated in the subject.
Thanks again.
Very true but a PM would have been better suited for a reply.
Edited by Storm Cooper (Wed Jul 26 2006 09:45 PM)
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bobw211
Verified CFHC User
Reged: Tue
Posts: 18
Loc: WPB, Florida
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does any one know when the disturbance will move out of texas??
A PM would be nice
it's moving NNE slowly. should be up into arkansas by friday. -HF
Edited by HanKFranK (Thu Jul 27 2006 12:16 AM)
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