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Archives 2000s >> 2006 News Talkbacks

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Genesis
Weather Guru


Reged: Wed
Posts: 125
Re: 99L [Re: saluki]
      #68632 - Mon Jul 31 2006 05:58 PM

Quote:

Quote:

The big inhibiting factor then is going to be whether it runs over Hispanola or not - if it does, it'll get ripped up good.




Distinctly remember this happening with Debby in 2000. The long-term forecast had it hitting the Broward/Palm Beach area as a Category 2 storm, but it fizzled after interacting with the mountains in the Dominican Republic. Any opinions on the possibility of that happening assuming 99L develops? A few of the models indicate paths north or south of Hispaniola, but none over it.



Sure - Hispanola is right in the center of the projected potential paths!

Of course that's kinda like relying on the black line when you have a cone blanketing you - either way (you're on it or not) - not a good idea. However, Hispanola is a fairly big landmass, which helps.

If it goes south of Hispanola then its got a rougher time of it trying to come at the eastern gulf, and Florida's East Coast is far less likely to get hit. On the other hand if it can remain south of the polar steering influences then the Yucatan and coastal areas down to Belize and the Honduras end up more at risk. This is the sort of solution the LBAR is prognosticating, but that model tends to completely miss a lot of the steering influences which is why, in terms of predictive value, it bites.

There is no current good model support for path prognostication from the "modern" models; if this thing organizes better and the globals get a better handle on its initialization this will of course change.

From the steering flows I see both in the globals and the WV/IR presentations from the GOES satellites I'd give it a 50% shot at missing Hispanola to the north, which is not good news for either Florida or the Gulf. If it "shoots the rapids" between the Florida mainland and Cuba we could have a really nasty situation on our hands; the "good view" is that this requires an almost precision run by the storm, and just on the probability numbers that's not a good bet to take.

I'd give this a 6-in-10 shot at being Cindy within 48-72 hours. The $64,000 question is on steering and I've got a lot rolling around in my head on that right now, given the players on the table. 90L is moving ENE and the disturbance off the Carolinas looks to be flattening out and diffusing as well. If 90L gets out of the way - and I think it will, based on the movement I see so far - then there's a "slot" for 99L to travel through north of Hispanola. It then becomes a question of what the High that is currently over the FL/AL border does, and WHEN - we're talking about something 4-5 days out in terms of risk of an impact on Florida, or sometime into early next week if it goes into the Gulf.

IMHO its too early to prognosticate on track and we need to focus on the genesis of this thing. If it spins up and doesn't run into Hispanola then it will be time to worry about where she's going, and by then the globals should have a decent handle on the environment.

You mean becoming "Chris"..

Edited by Storm Cooper (Mon Jul 31 2006 06:02 PM)


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Rich B
British Meteorologist


Reged: Sat
Posts: 498
Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK
Re: TWO at 530 [Re: Storm Hunter]
      #68633 - Mon Jul 31 2006 06:00 PM

Hey guys,
looks to me like 99l could become 03l at anytime. satellite imagery shows the LLCc becoming better defined and becoming drawn more to the convective activity in the eastern semi-circle. convection also seems to be on the up. i think we may see an upgrade at the next cycle this evening, if not before. certainly the one to watch.

regards

--------------------
Rich B

SkyWarn UK


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weather_wise911
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Mon
Posts: 82
Re: 99L [Re: Genesis]
      #68634 - Mon Jul 31 2006 06:03 PM

...Personally...
I`m favoring the "NGPI" up to about 36-48 HRS........ after that, "LBAR".... or "BAMS" look good.

Based on 18:00 model run.

Can you give us a link to the 18Z runs you are looking at in your post...



WW-911

Edited by weather_wise911 (Mon Jul 31 2006 06:53 PM)


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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1060
Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida
Re: TWO at 530 [Re: Rich B]
      #68635 - Mon Jul 31 2006 06:48 PM

I would not say that TD Three is on the verge of forming, yet at least. The NHC will probably wait until recon to pull the trigger, and the last I heard, they didn't have a recon scheduled (just on standby). The thing looks more organized than it is, I think, based upon the most recent TWO.

If the organization continues, recon will probably fly into the system tomorrow, and we'll have Chris.

--------------------
Hugh

Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)


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weather_wise911
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Mon
Posts: 82
Re: 99L [Re: weather_wise911]
      #68636 - Mon Jul 31 2006 06:52 PM

Go here....



http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/guidance/atlantic/early1.png



WW-911

Edited by weather_wise911 (Mon Jul 31 2006 07:24 PM)


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craigm
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 326
Loc: Palm City, Florida
Re: 99L [Re: weather_wise911]
      #68637 - Mon Jul 31 2006 07:10 PM

WW what synoptic developments do you see favoring the BAMS and the LBAR? This probably belongs in a PM

--------------------
Why I'm here:
Weather Junkie


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Steve H1
Storm Tracker


Reged: Fri
Posts: 309
Loc: Palm Bay FL USA
Re: 99L [Re: craigm]
      #68638 - Mon Jul 31 2006 07:23 PM

99L is looking a bit better organized this evening as expected when it got closer to the Caribbean. What I find very puzzling is (are) the low off the Carolinas, the ULL near the Bahamas and the divergence(?) east of the Bahamas. Last visible loops of the day suggest to me the the ULL may be working its way down to the surface. Check out the loop and notice the curvature of these clouds. A bit creepy to say the least IMO!

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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
Re: 99L [Re: Steve H1]
      #68639 - Mon Jul 31 2006 07:26 PM

storms are back over center and growing (99L).... would expect a TD upgade to follow if the storms can hold against the shear and dry air....... now watching the NAVY.... they have a sat about to do an overpass soon i think i saw.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-rgb.html

--------------------
www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh



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D3m3NT3DVoRT3X
Weather Watcher


Reged: Thu
Posts: 48
Loc: The Burg < FL
Re: 99L [Re: Storm Hunter]
      #68640 - Mon Jul 31 2006 07:37 PM

Floater 1 is over 99l now enjoy http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-wv.html

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Tropicbird
Registered User


Reged: Tue
Posts: 8
Loc: near Homestead, FL
Re: 99L [Re: saluki]
      #68643 - Mon Jul 31 2006 07:58 PM

Quote:

The big inhibiting factor then is going to be whether it runs over Hispanola or not - if it does, it'll get ripped up good.




Guess it's time to log on officially and begin hardcore tracking. Good luck to all out there in the 2006 season!

One question: is a storm less affected by passage over Hispaniola's mountains if it is weak at the time?


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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1060
Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida
Re: 99L [Re: Tropicbird]
      #68644 - Mon Jul 31 2006 08:02 PM

Nothing to officially track YET... and no, the mountains will be just as effective on a weak storm, I imagine.

--------------------
Hugh

Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)


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rmbjoe1954
Weather Master


Reged: Tue
Posts: 426
Loc: Port Saint Lucie, Florida, USA
Re: 99L [Re: Tropicbird]
      #68645 - Mon Jul 31 2006 08:06 PM

Mountains would diminish the surface low. This would help destabilize the system and hamper it's strength. It could recapture its loss once it leaves the island area but other aspects of climatology must be there to help regenerate the system.

--------------------
________2017 Forecast: 12/6/3________

There is little chance that meteorologists can solve the mysteries of weather until they gain an understanding of the mutual attraction of rain and weekends. ~Arnot Sheppard


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allan
Weather Master


Reged: Thu
Posts: 468
Loc: Palm Coast, Florida
Re: 99L and other waves [Re: Hugh]
      #68646 - Mon Jul 31 2006 08:07 PM Attachment (367 downloads)

In fact true, Not to officially track yet but to watch. New Invest 90L looks poor tonight. African wave will become a tropical system possibly our first hurricane according to the models. Though looks like it will stay out of our way.. FOR NOW.... Things change (words of Batman)
99L looks great tonight. TD3 will possibly be brewing tommorrow afternoon I believe. Or... it could loose its convection. Folks like me in Florida have to watch this carefully but should be more of a rainmaker as usual. Watch the tropics this week 3 possible storms on the horizon....

What does your attachment have to do with the Main Page or tropics in general?

--------------------
Allan Reed - 18,9,5

Edited by Storm Cooper (Mon Jul 31 2006 08:30 PM)


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LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1236
Loc: South Florida
Re: 99L (loop is incredible thanks) [Re: D3m3NT3DVoRT3X]
      #68647 - Mon Jul 31 2006 08:33 PM

That's an incredible loop there...

We are talking a Tropical Depression/closed system. It doesn't have to fit a tropical storm's parameters to be a tropical depression... I've seen tropical storms that didn't look as organized and were more lopsided.

Interesting to see what they decide though imagine they will wait til the morning to classify and then send planes in to see if it deserves a name not a number.

--------------------
http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/


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weather_wise911
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Mon
Posts: 82
Re: 99L (loop is incredible thanks) [Re: LoisCane]
      #68648 - Mon Jul 31 2006 08:38 PM

Quote:

I've seen tropical storms that didn't look as organized and were more lopsided.






I agree 100%!!

I mean, its obvious that this is a tropical depression, if not low-end T.S.
But, model guidence is still "all over the place." Since the NHC relies so much on forecast modles... mabey thats it.
They simply are not ready to issue a forecast track, lol.


WW-911

This system is hardly a low-end TS - nowhere near it yet. Comments like this, without rationale, belong in the Forecast Lounge - not on the Main Page.

Edited by Ed Dunham (Mon Jul 31 2006 09:05 PM)


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NewWatcher
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 388
Loc: Port Orange, FL
03L noname [Re: weather_wise911]
      #68649 - Mon Jul 31 2006 08:43 PM

NRL lists it as 03L NONAME Now

--------------------
Pam in Volusia County

According to Colleen A ... "I AM A HURRICANE FREAK"
2007 Predictions 16/9/6


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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1060
Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida
TD Three forms [Re: weather_wise911]
      #68650 - Mon Jul 31 2006 08:43 PM

Edit because someone else beat me to it... but...

It'll be interesting to see what the models do now that it's formed.


--------------------
Hugh

Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)


Edited by Hugh (Mon Jul 31 2006 08:44 PM)


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weather_wise911
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Mon
Posts: 82
Re: TD Three forms *DELETED* [Re: Hugh]
      #68651 - Mon Jul 31 2006 08:55 PM

Post deleted by weather_wise911

Edited by Storm Cooper (Mon Jul 31 2006 09:00 PM)


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cieldumort
Moderator


Reged: Mon
Posts: 2016
Loc: Austin, Tx
Re: 03L noname [Re: NewWatcher]
      #68666 - Mon Jul 31 2006 09:53 PM

I am going to keep this as polite and kind to NHC as possible, while still getting my point across.

It seems to me that NHC is waiting for NONAME to hit 35 knots before stepping up.

Everyone else is on board with 99l being a Depression, already.

Perhaps a little education is in order. NHC indeed knows that this system is a Tropical Depression. NHC is the agency that tells NRL that they intend to upgrade (or downgrade) a tropical system. In this case, when NRL gets the upgrade notification from NHC, NRL changes the designation on their site to NONAME. If it is rather close to the next normal bulletin time, NHC then notifies the media of the upcoming change that will be reflected in the next set of advisories. The only reason that you are on board with 99L being a TD is because NHC made it happen.

Edited by Ed Dunham (Mon Jul 31 2006 10:15 PM)


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