bhnole
Verified CFHC User
Reged: Mon
Posts: 11
Loc: Maitland, FL
|
|
Chris is generating more convection but still having problems with shear.
I find the big ULL over Florida interesting, it is entering the Gulf now and starting to build some convection. Any Mets want to chime in on whether it could develope a LLC if the convention continues to build. Plenty of untapped energy in the Gulf right now for a system.
http://www.weather.com/maps/maptype/satelliteworld/gulfofmexicosatellite_large_animated.html
Edited by bhnole (Fri Aug 04 2006 03:49 PM)
|
allan
Weather Master
Reged: Thu
Posts: 468
Loc: Palm Coast, Florida 29.55N 81.20W
|
|
Chris is still a storm in the Atlantic, not a Tropical Storm but a deppression which is still a regular storm. As long it is a deppression/ storm it still needs to be watched. Don't write it off yet! You really don't know what can happen now. The , models and meteorologists have all been slighty wrong with the strength of Chris. They did good on the Track except for the . Very surprised it wasnt right on with Chris. Not doing too good this year.
--------------------
Allan Reed - 18,9,5
Edited by allan (Fri Aug 04 2006 03:50 PM)
|
HurryCaneForm
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Wed
Posts: 50
Loc: Baton Rouge, Louisiana.
|
|
Whatever happens to Chris, it surely has been one heck of a "Resiliant" Storm. I was amazed yesterday that it was still a TS with 40mph winds with all of that shear tearing it apart. As off today, I'm still amazed it's a TD but I will be shocked if it keeps TD status at the 5.Pm advisory!
|
Manny
Registered User
Reged: Thu
Posts: 6
|
|
I'm no met, but I do know that ULLs tend to take forever to develop tropical features and with the flow moving it west that quickly I really doubt it even has a chance to ever develop.
|
StuckInNO
Unregistered
|
|
I'm in New Orleans and the LBAR track looks like a northern turn tomorrow. Anyone know how accurate this model is?
|
Psyber
Weather Guru
Reged: Fri
Posts: 136
Loc: Ontario, Canada
|
|
Quote:
I see the ULL interacting with the convection Chris has going If that what I'm seeing is right it def. means the end of Chris and just that much faster right and lessens or completely wipes out his chances to make it at all to the gulf let alone do anything once he get's there right or am I wrong? Anybody else have any thoughts?
He'll make it to the gulf, just in what form he makes it is up to cuba, the 2 ULL's he's been sandwitched between.
--------------------
Leave it to Accuweather to take the accuracy out of weather.
|
FreeportGary
Unregistered
|
|
The advance elements of Chris are just beginning to appear on Camaguey radar:
http://www.met.inf.cu/asp/genesis.asp?TB.../cmwMAXw01a.gif
|
Tropics Guy
Storm Tracker
Reged: Thu
Posts: 252
Loc: Miami, Florida
|
|
Think Chris will be downgraded to a remnant low at 5 or 11, the huge ULL to his Northeast hit him with too much shear, we'll see if he can regenerate in the Gulf where conditions may be better.
TG
|
Texas Cane Tracker
Verified CFHC User
Reged: Tue
Posts: 21
Loc: Tomball, TX
|
|
Will have to be at 11:00. Still classified as a tropical depression for the 5:00pm update.
http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200603_5day.html
|
FreeportGary
Unregistered
|
|
Quote:
I'm in New Orleans and the LBAR track looks like a northern turn tomorrow. Anyone know how accurate this model is?
The mets can provide some wisdom on the accuracy of the LBAR. It's worth noting that the current LBAR
track has Chris missing Cuba entirely. That seems very unlikely at this juncture.
|
Cash
Verified CFHC User
Reged: Sat
Posts: 11
Loc: New Orleans, LA
|
|
I don't know why you believe Chris has been "resiliant" (sic). It hasn't been so at all. It's a small storm that has proven especially labile given that it fell apart unexpectedly in a matter of 12 hours two nights ago. The admitted that it was likely being generous in keeping Chris a minimal TS as long as it did. Last night, as convection erupted on the southeast side, it was easily brushed away and erased by shear.
There is too often a desire to see the extraordinary in every storm that forms. This was a small and ordinary system that, after initially surprising forecasters and models alike with a quick burst of organizing behavior, has ended up proving quite fragile.
Perhaps it will survive to thrive again, but for now, "resilient" is hardly the most apt descriptor.
Cash
|
cieldumort
Moderator
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1023
Loc: Texas 30.40N 97.80W
|
|
It's unlikely that Chris will be written off by until either or both the convection stops re-firing (and/or) the now broad and diffuse low level circulation just fans out too much - which, admittedly, it's very close to doing this afternoon.
|
cieldumort
Moderator
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1023
Loc: Texas 30.40N 97.80W
|
|
I have usually found the LBAR to be a useless model with regard to tropical cyclones - Usually want to stick with your , BAMS (the "shallow" BAM), , and the like on Chris. Others all have their good and bad points, but truly, I rate the utility of the LBAR at something close to zero.
Edited by cieldumort (Fri Aug 04 2006 05:36 PM)
|
cieldumort
Moderator
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1023
Loc: Texas 30.40N 97.80W
|
|
Think that "resilient," as applied to Chris, is an entirely relative term. Resilient for being a small tropical cyclone in a very hostile environment and having enormously high sea level pressure for a TS (now TD) - within that context, Chris is resilient.
|
madmumbler
Storm Tracker
Reged: Wed
Posts: 318
Loc: Cape Haze Peninsula, SWFL 26.89N 82.29W
|
|
Quote:
Chris is generating more convection but still having problems with shear.
I find the big ULL over Florida interesting, it is entering the Gulf now and starting to build some convection. Any Mets want to chime in on whether it could develope a LLC if the convention continues to build. Plenty of untapped energy in the Gulf right now for a system.
That's the feature I was asking about yesterday. It has slid to the west -- yesterday the "center" was off the east coast, and now it looks like the center is dead-square over the Tampa Bay region. But it doesn't look like it's developing, just bringing us some rain (which is a good thing).
It's my understanding that the ULL will help keep Chris south of the state.
--------------------
Lesli in SWFL.
(my 2009 guess - 14/7/5)
Friends help you move. Real friends help you move bodies.
|
Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged: Fri
Posts: 1060
Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida 30.51N 86.50W
|
|
Well, it looks to me as if the remnants of Chris have split once again. I say the remnants of Chris because even though it's technically still a tropical depression, the system is a shadow of its former self... anyway...
there are three cloud masses currently - one over Haiti, one just north of the coast, and one a bit further north of that. The three areas are evenly spaced, and a fourth cloud mass is smaller, but north of the third one. While there is more convection than earlier today, it's very much trough-like, and very much un-cyclone like.
--------------------
Hugh
Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)
|
Storm Cooper
Moderator
Reged: Sat
Posts: 1284
Loc: Panama City Beach, FL 30.22N 85.86W
|
|
TD Chris is split up for sure... but if it's center as defined by the ends up moving a little north of Cuba keeping it over water it could possibly end up in the GOM with a chance to try again.
--------------------
Hurricane Season 2012 11/5/2
|
Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged: Fri
Posts: 1060
Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida 30.51N 86.50W
|
|
Quote:
TD Chris is split up for sure... but if it's center as defined by the ends up moving a little north of Cuba keeping it over water it could possibly end up in the GOM with a chance to try again.
Given Chris' short but topsy-turvy history, I have to agree. Even if the LLC is deemed to have dissipated, the remnant moisture could make it into the GOM and reform. Anything is possible. The 8pn Advisory was just issued and it maintains a 35mph broad and poorly-defined LLC.
--------------------
Hugh
Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)
|
cieldumort
Moderator
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1023
Loc: Texas 30.40N 97.80W
|
|
Looks really troughy to me, too. Should be a close call for them to decide whether to go with TD or dissipated overnight. I suspect there's some semblance of a non-trofy broad surface circulation still present, however. Given ' s tendency to err on the side of caution with Chris, I suspect that they will continue advisories as long as can be remotely justified, as he has had some history of surprising on the upside.
|
jlauderdal
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Tue
Posts: 97
Loc: Fort Lauderdale, FLorida
|
|
Quote:
Quote:
Chris is generating more convection but still having problems with shear.
I find the big ULL over Florida interesting, it is entering the Gulf now and starting to build some convection. Any Mets want to chime in on whether it could develope a LLC if the convention continues to build. Plenty of untapped energy in the Gulf right now for a system.
That's the feature I was asking about yesterday. It has slid to the west -- yesterday the "center" was off the east coast, and now it looks like the center is dead-square over the Tampa Bay region. But it doesn't look like it's developing, just bringing us some rain (which is a good thing).
It's my understanding that the ULL will help keep Chris south of the state.
ridge is the feature keeping chris if it is still chris to our south
|
Previous
Index
Next
Threaded
[Re: 
Edit
Reply
Quote
