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Archives >> 2006 News Talkbacks

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HanKFranK
User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC 33.56N 81.82W
utterly weird [Re: Clark]
      #70202 - Wed Aug 16 2006 11:41 PM

take a look at the tiny vortex near 35.2/70.5. it's like a rabid little supercell or something. i've been watching that thing since yesterday, not sure what to make of it. most of the vorticity is likely aloft, but that little bugger is really spinning.
HF 0341z17august


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wereallgonnadie
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Thu
Posts: 22
Loc: nw fla
Re: utterly weird [Re: HanKFranK]
      #70203 - Wed Aug 16 2006 11:46 PM

I think your subject heading describes this season very well. On the other hand a lot of people probably feel that watching a little supercell is the most excitement they want to have after the last two years.

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cieldumort
Moderator


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1068
Loc: Texas 30.40N 97.80W
Re: utterly weird [Re: HanKFranK]
      #70205 - Thu Aug 17 2006 04:04 AM

Yeah - certainly not a supercell -- but I know what you mean - and I was using that term loosely yesterday, myself - tho, I'm fairly certain that a few of those strongest cells must have had some mesos in them at some points ...

That feature, at this hour, looks like it should be 96L .. but, it won't be.. not this year, anyway

Nice low-level circ with oodles of spin, HF! Some associated deep convection to boot! I wouldn't want to be a small craft navigating into that thing right now, I'll tell you that! Would betcha winds are gusting over 35 knots in it right now!


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cieldumort
Moderator


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1068
Loc: Texas 30.40N 97.80W
Re: utterly weird [Re: HanKFranK]
      #70207 - Thu Aug 17 2006 05:31 AM

OK, I can see that I'm just about the only one who really likes to pay attention to what these things do overnights, eh?

First things first - 93L Noteworthy notes:
COC *very* near coming ashore. Upper-level shear has not yet impacted it as harshly as suggested by many, so far. 00Z runs nearly all drive COC to the southwest, now. (Maaaaybe, it evades destruction.)

Obs in the immediate area late tonight are strongly hinting that perhaps NHC should have given 93 the benefit of the doubt, yesterday. We probably have some 25 knot, non-convective, sustained surface winds now. Lots of obs coming in at between 15 and 18 knots, and keeping in mind these are remote, few, and far between, I would buy right into a call of max sustained 25 knots, in general - and perhaps up to 30 knots within convective squalls.

As I type this we have some renewed deeper convection tonight blowing up south, southwest, and northeast of the COC, with some banding within the larger cyclonic sphere of influence, as well.

Quite possibly getting a baroclinic boost, I'll concede. But, I don't care. 93L is most likely a Depression in my book. My .02, guys and gals.


Next 95L - A lot more models suggesting a deeper surface low makes it into Texas. The NAM experimental WRF keeps bringing us a landfalling TS. Other major models vary by some degrees, but all generally suggest at least a mid/upper low with an accompanying surface trof or reflection pushes inland. Here in central Texas we *really* need the rain. Right along the coast, I'm not so sure they want any more tropical downpours. Mixed bag for Texas. Need more time to see what kind of system unfolds.


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GuppieGrouper
Weather Master


Reged: Fri
Posts: 596
Loc: Polk County, Florida
Re: utterly weird [Re: cieldumort]
      #70208 - Thu Aug 17 2006 05:40 AM

We have a little spinner off the west coast of Florida this morning. I wonder how it will interact with the little spinner off the Carolina Coast. I am also wondering about the showers over Florida today as well. We had a terrific TS last evening with brief heavy down pour. I heard what sounded like a downdraft a couple of times. It was significant enough that my dog barked at it a couple times and went to the door thinking that there was something to protect us from....
These little skirmishes are more interesting than hurricanes!

--------------------
God commands. Laymen guess. Scientists record.

Edited by GuppieGrouper (Thu Aug 17 2006 05:58 AM)


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cieldumort
Moderator


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1068
Loc: Texas 30.40N 97.80W
Re: utterly weird [Re: GuppieGrouper]
      #70209 - Thu Aug 17 2006 06:01 AM

Yeah, that spinner off the west coast of Florida is the ULL - TUTT Low, if you will. From the looks of things, it's fairly juiced up, and probably working it's way into the mid-levels. The WRF really wants to make it meld somehow with 95L and come into Texas as a tropical storm. Would be a bit of a rare evolution.

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