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Archives 2000s >> 2006 News Talkbacks

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nl
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
Posts: 207
Loc: nsb,fl
Re: hang on.. [Re: Hawkeyewx]
      #70756 - Fri Aug 25 2006 03:38 PM

looks like some burst of convection in the nw corner of Ernesto.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-avn.html


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TampaRand
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Fri
Posts: 76
Loc: Tampa FL
Re: hang on.. [Re: HanKFranK]
      #70757 - Fri Aug 25 2006 03:40 PM

I have noticed some recent convection bursts on the shortwave at 1815Z and also CONUS and NOGAPS seem to be justifying more towards GFDL. Will NHC abandon the A98E product, soon, in favor of the longer range models or will the lesser products also justify to GFDL? (Probably) It sure looked like for a while it was getting sheared pretty good. Also noticed some serious tearing of the cloudtops in the NE quad earlier (probably UL westerlies), but that seems to have subsided. This is certainly a curious system. It may be it is overcoming some of the earlier problems. Certainly seems to be getting it's act together again pretty quick after a deep wounding.

--------------------
Amateur Weather Prognosticator and Cane Junkie.
www.hurricanewx.net


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RevUp
Weather Guru


Reged: Sun
Posts: 180
Loc:
Re: hang on.. [Re: HanKFranK]
      #70758 - Fri Aug 25 2006 03:44 PM

Agree ... it 's not over yet. I was waiting to see if the LLCC would become exposed which it did. I think NHC has been wrestling with this system for good reason. Again, I think the next 24 hrs will tell the tale for Ernesto, but it will be difficult for the storm to hold it all together in the type of environment it is in. The challenge for anyone on this type of system is: where is the center of circulation, and which center are you going to forecast for? Personally, I don't think it's all that "easy" to spin up another LLCC. We'll see.

LLCC=low level circulation center - as opposed to low level circulation(s), of which there can be several.

Edited by RevUp (Fri Aug 25 2006 04:18 PM)


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madmumbler
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 324
Loc: SWFL
Re: Tropical Depression Five Forms in Eastern Caribbean [Re: amonty]
      #70759 - Fri Aug 25 2006 03:50 PM

Quote:

Yup according to the Navy site. We have Ernesto... It's about time.




What link is that? The link I have to a Navy site still shows it as TD5?

--------------------
Lesli in SWFL.
Friends help you move. Real friends help you move bodies.


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abyrd
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 62
Loc: apopka
Re: Tropical Depression Five Forms in Eastern Caribbean [Re: madmumbler]
      #70760 - Fri Aug 25 2006 03:55 PM

Don't know if it was posted earlier, but Max Mayfield just announced he's done after this season:
http://www.orlandosentinel.com/news/weather/sfl-825maxmayfield,0,4299116.story?coll=orl-home-headlines


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amonty
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Thu
Posts: 66
Loc: Clearwater, Fl
Re: Tropical Depression Five Forms in Eastern Caribbean [Re: madmumbler]
      #70761 - Fri Aug 25 2006 04:00 PM

This one >>>
Screenshot

I seriously doubt that is the only LLC under him. There wouldn't be as much convection if it were. Remember yesterday at this time? Everyone was seeing and saying the same thing. It'll probably spit out a few more until it gains more strength. As long as the convection is deep it'll make new LLCs.


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NewWatcher
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 388
Loc: Port Orange, FL
Re: Tropical Depression Five Forms in Eastern Caribbean [Re: amonty]
      #70763 - Fri Aug 25 2006 04:16 PM

18 z shows a change in the models after the 35 knot TS input Clark was talking about

http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/guidance/index.htm

--------------------
Pam in Volusia County

According to Colleen A ... "I AM A HURRICANE FREAK"
2007 Predictions 16/9/6


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Ed in Va
Weather Master


Reged: Fri
Posts: 489
Loc:
Re: Tropical Depression Five Forms in Eastern Caribbean [Re: NewWatcher]
      #70764 - Fri Aug 25 2006 04:25 PM

Yikes! The plot thickens...with that spread, it could go about anywhere in the Gulf, including NO.

--------------------
Survived Carol and Edna '54 in Maine. Guess this kind of dates me!


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HanKFranK
User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
new thread [Re: Ed in Va]
      #70765 - Fri Aug 25 2006 04:29 PM

okay, 'nuff on this thread. mike opened another that's more relevant, i.e., tropical storm Ernesto.
HF 2029z25august


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CoalCracker
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Fri
Posts: 96
Loc: Cape Coral, FL
Re: Tropical Depression Five Forms in Eastern Caribbean [Re: NewWatcher]
      #70766 - Fri Aug 25 2006 04:29 PM

Based on the 1800 runs, I'd guess the NHC will shift the track slightly to the right with the 5PM advisory and possibly further right at 11PM should the 00 runs continue trending right. Plot thickens..

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