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Archives 2000s >> 2006 News Talkbacks

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GuppieGrouper
Weather Master


Reged: Fri
Posts: 596
Loc: Polk County, Florida
Re: Ernesto [Re: Unregistered User]
      #70974 - Sat Aug 26 2006 11:21 AM

For blob watchers to put things into perspective:

http://www.baynews9.com/Doppler9000.html

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God commands. Laymen guess. Scientists record.


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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1060
Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida
Re: Ernesto [Re: GuppieGrouper]
      #70975 - Sat Aug 26 2006 11:30 AM

Looking at the current AVN loop... Ernesto is still encountering alot of shear it seems. What was earlier a nice round BLOB looks a bit like a fried egg on its side now. Given the obstacles that this storm has already overcome, it will probably shove it out of the way in a few hours, but it's interesting to watch.

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Hugh

Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)


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SirCane
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
Posts: 249
Loc: Pensacola, FL
Re: Ernesto [Re: Unregistered User]
      #70976 - Sat Aug 26 2006 11:42 AM

I don't like the way the models keep shifting to the East. It's not too cool.

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Direct Hits:
Hurricane Erin (1995) 100 mph
Hurricane Opal (1995) 115 mph
Hurricane Ivan (2004) 130 mph
Hurricane Dennis (2005) 120 mph
http://www.hardcoreweather.com


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Ron Basso
Storm Tracker


Reged: Thu
Posts: 267
Loc: hernando beach, FL
Re: East Coast Swirl [Re: Kevin]
      #70977 - Sat Aug 26 2006 11:42 AM

I copied my post from another forum. What the GFS, GFDL, & NOGAPS models are keying on is obviously a weakness in the upper ridge. I have included a series of model time slice plots to show the evolving weakness forecasted by the 06Z GFS. What's a little disturbing is that once the break in the ridge develops, the eastern portion shows a SW-NE orientation which is allowing the storm to start recurving (albeit slightly) to the N-NE. By Friday night, the ridge over FL completely collapses with the portion over TX remaining intact. If this verifies, I think Texans could breathe a little easier - However, I'm more concerned now for the FL panhandle and NE GOM in general then yesterday. Again, this is what is forecast today - everyone is correct in that these conditions can change in 4-5 days time.

Thursday night 8 PM

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/06/images/gfs_500_138s.gif

Friday morning 8 AM

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/06/images/gfs_500_150s.gif

Friday night 8 PM

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/06/images/gfs_500_162s.gif

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RJB


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Colleen A.
Moderator


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1432
Loc: Florida
Re: Pressure [Re: Hugh]
      #70978 - Sat Aug 26 2006 11:48 AM

Keep in mind that the cone is there to encourage people not to follow the black line. If one looks at the cone, they will see that there is a wide area being covered right now, including Texas, MS, AL and FL. It is entirely too early to speculate that New Orleans is in the bullseye right now. This track can and will change as factors such as shear, forward speed, ridges breaking down, etc. set in.
As far as I can tell, the cone has been shifting east -- albeit very subtly -- over the last 2 days. EVERYONE from Texas to Florida needs to watch this storm....and if residents living along the Gulf Coast have not gotten their supplies together, now would be a good time to do so.

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You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.


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HanKFranK
User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
ivan/dennis wannabe? [Re: GuppieGrouper]
      #70979 - Sat Aug 26 2006 11:50 AM

stuff from yesterday... looks like the eastern/central gulf options are becoming more favored by the models and officially by the NHC. the uncertainties remain in how much the ridge decays to let the storm up (not much run to run consistency on that point), and a new one today: why is intensity guidance weakening the storm over the central gulf? i think that may be a model fluke with the upper ridging (i.e., the storm will be generating a good bit) and exactly where the upper low to the west ends up after tailing into the western gulf.
the only good thing i can see in the long range is that while Ernesto may become quite powerful as it crosses the high heat region in the central gulf, there's a lot of zonal shear over the u.s. and it extends down very close to the coast. again, it may or may not be a fluke, but the GFS pushing the ridging away and developing southwesterly shear over the region the storm would be in could signify another instance (like with Katrina, Ivan, etc..) where shear helps spin down an intense hurricane to where the winds aren't strong enough to totally demolish structures.. but that doesn't do much for surge potential.
with more of the models showing a weakness over the southeast i'm more comfortable degrading the threat to areas further west, i.e. texas and the western half of louisiana. still don't see any reason it would curve sharply enough to impact peninsular florida. i can't really say anything makes sense besides the area shown in the NHC cone. noticed their late trend in the last advisory is to turn the storm more sharply near the end of the run.. and they usually drag the forecast track over gradually, which implies they might take it a little further later today (unless a bunch of models flip back further west).
i'll set my first thrat swath from grand isle to cedar key. the region of emphasis is the florida panhandle. likely threat range is a category 2-3 hurricane at landfall. time centered during the afternoon on friday, september 1.
elsewhere...
that little low on the decaying front off georgia is still there today. in a shear zone and not serving as much of a convective focal point right now... upper ridging should dominate the area by tomorrow, so if it keeps popping convection, might merit more interest. probably won't move much... out to sea is most likely in the long run.
debby is now forecast to die before being absorbed by a front. might make a little resurgence, but never got near as strong as i thought it would.
low from a washed out tropical wave moving off africa is broad but well defined. going to move through a fairly dry area with marginal SSTs.. not likely to do much developing for the next couple days. if it can maintain definition further west, could enter the mix as something down the road. tis the season.
another decent wave will come off sunday or monday.
HF 1550z26august


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Doughboy
Unregistered




Re: Pressure [Re: Colleen A.]
      #70980 - Sat Aug 26 2006 11:50 AM

would this mean the East Coast of Florida to?? Just in case if it does a Charley? Should I prepare?

prolly not. there isn't a huge trough digging down to the northern gulf in any of the models, like there was with Charley. keep an eye on it, in case something changes. -HF

Edited by HanKFranK (Sat Aug 26 2006 11:58 AM)


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amazon
Registered User


Reged: Tue
Posts: 9
Loc: Austin, TX
Re: Ernesto [Re: SirCane]
      #70981 - Sat Aug 26 2006 11:54 AM

Quote:

I don't like the way the models keep shifting to the East. It's not too cool.




My best guess is that the 6-9 month ridge over the gulf stays intact and the furthest north this system may head is Corpus Christi.. most likely Brownsville south.
However if it were to move more north east of Houston, as an aside could we finally get a more prolonged colder winter(a pause in this whole global warming excitement) if a pattern of early season troughs were strong enough to break the ridge down???
Anyhow - should be interesting to see if Ernesto can overcome the inhibiting factors that have not allowed a hurricane much less a strong hurricane to develope this year...


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Cash
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Sat
Posts: 11
Loc: New Orleans, LA
Re: Ernesto [Re: Unregistered User]
      #70984 - Sat Aug 26 2006 12:00 PM

On behalf of the citizens of New Orleans, I'd like to express my thoughts on the unregistered Mr. Gaynor's post at the bottom of page 8, but decorum and civility standards on this forum prevent me from adequately and satisfactorily doing so.

Suffice it to say I think that knuckleheaded drive-by commentary sucks eggs. It's simplistic, inflammatory, and betrays an obvious lack of depth of consideration. Never mind the stupidity of a casual dismissal of a major American city, its residents, and its vital port.

And beyond that, model guidance and forecasting skill at days 4 and beyond are such that a very large swath of the gulf coast is vulnerable and the notion that this thing is in any way certain to hit New Orleans (or any other area) is absurd.

That said, given that on the anniversary of the day my home flooded with 11.5 feet of Lake Pontchartrain we're going to have a hurricane entering the gulf, and given that by a day after that we'll be 48 hours from landfall with likely at least a small chance of south Louisiana impact, we're all likely to be evacuating again come Wednesday/Thursday of this coming week. It's a joy to be a New Orleanian, I tell you.

Cash


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madmumbler
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 324
Loc: SWFL
Re: Pressure [Re: Colleen A.]
      #70986 - Sat Aug 26 2006 12:02 PM

Quote:

Keep in mind that the cone is there to encourage people not to follow the black line. If one looks at the cone, they will see that there is a wide area being covered right now, including Texas, MS, AL and FL. It is entirely too early to speculate that New Orleans is in the bullseye right now. This track can and will change as factors such as shear, forward speed, ridges breaking down, etc. set in.
As far as I can tell, the cone has been shifting east -- albeit very subtly -- over the last 2 days. EVERYONE from Texas to Florida needs to watch this storm....and if residents living along the Gulf Coast have not gotten their supplies together, now would be a good time to do so.




I have a feeling it will keep shifting east. I don't think it's going to make a west coast hit, but I have a strong feeling from the trends we're looking at that we'll be seeing the track focus in somewhere on the Panhandle.

I just went out and started my generator to make sure it's working. *LOL*

Just in case.

New Thread Started...

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Lesli in SWFL.
Friends help you move. Real friends help you move bodies.

Edited by Storm Cooper (Sat Aug 26 2006 12:03 PM)


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WeatherNut
Weather Master


Reged: Wed
Posts: 412
Loc: Atlanta, GA
Re: Ernesto [Re: Hugh]
      #70987 - Sat Aug 26 2006 12:03 PM

found this interesting link that updates the shear flow and speed every 3 hours. I've not had time to really figure out how to read it completely...but it looks like the shear is less over Ernesto now...

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8shr.html

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Born into Cleo (64)...been stuck on em ever since


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Clark
Meteorologist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1710
Loc:
Re: Ernesto [Re: WeatherNut]
      #70990 - Sat Aug 26 2006 12:07 PM

New thread up on the main page.

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Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)


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