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Archives >> 2006 News Talkbacks

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scottsvb
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1096
Loc: fl
Re: Hurricane Ernesto [Re: tornado00]
      #71304 - Sun Aug 27 2006 07:36 AM

before anyone gets too excited...its 4-5 days away (apon landfall)... Today is a watcher with Models..and strength and especially what he will do during the 24 hours around Cuba.....where will he cross? will he stay south? or go over it? Also how much weaker will he get and how long over Cuba? Model runs wil shift like the GFS...maybe the rest will tweak back some west to the Panhandle? Maybe the front wont be that strong........again...its 4-5 days out......until its less then 3 days..anyone outside of the Keys should just watch...and wait 1 more day.

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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1060
Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida 30.51N 86.50W
Re: Hurricane Ernesto [Re: Clark]
      #71305 - Sun Aug 27 2006 07:39 AM

I completely agree, Clark. While the NHC has to go with the consensus reasoning to a certain point, when the consensus changes so dramatically, they don't normally jump on it like the did at 5am. They normally wait until they have a second model run to make dramatic changes to the forecast.

Also, while it may be insignificant, what was the intensity for the model run initializations? If it was 60mph like Ernesto was late last night, that could reduce the validity of this run. Five days out, it's still impossible to say with any degree of certainty where Ernesto will ultimately impact, I believe.

Just looked at the 2am GFS run... it takes Ernesto due north across extreme eastern Cuba, then curves the storm back to the NW into the Gulf, and then NNW toward the Panhandle, with landfall potential near Panama City now.



--------------------
Hugh

Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)


Edited by Hugh (Sun Aug 27 2006 07:46 AM)


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pincty
Weather Watcher


Reged: Tue
Posts: 28
Re: Hurricane Ernesto [Re: tornado00]
      #71306 - Sun Aug 27 2006 07:39 AM

I saw that NW jog also. We've been lucky in Pinellas Cty. for years. Hope our luck doesn't run out.

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ftlaudbob
Storm Chaser


Reged: Tue
Posts: 757
Loc: Lauderdale-By- the- Sea,Fl 26.19N 80.10W
Re: Hurricane Ernesto [Re: Marknole]
      #71307 - Sun Aug 27 2006 07:40 AM

This is a perfect example of why we always need to watch these things so closely.If he goes over the east side of Cuba the weakening will be less,Because the mountains are on the west side of Cuba.What we do not want to see is a stall after Cuba,The waters there are very warm and he COULD get much stronger very quickly.If you live in Florida,now is the time to prepare,because this looks to be a large storm.Remember wierd things happen when a hurricane interacts with land(as far as the track).South Florida is now the main concern,both the east and west coasts.

--------------------

Survived:
Gloria,Bob,Katrina,Wilma and a bunch of tropical storms.


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Cat 5orBust
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Tue
Posts: 90
Re: Hurricane Ernesto [Re: danielw]
      #71308 - Sun Aug 27 2006 07:43 AM

there is still plenty of time if the track stays west of florida then curves back where the NHC says landfall could be thursday afternoonish. if the track shifts further east south florida will start feeling the storm late tuesday. so in south florida there is only about 2.5 days to prepare if this will have more of an impact on that area. people in south florida should make sure they have what they need today because tomorrow could be a zoo if its going to have a more direct impact on south florida.

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hope
Unregistered




Re: Hurricane Ernesto [Re: Storm Cooper]
      #71309 - Sun Aug 27 2006 07:45 AM

Did I see thing wrong or did it go from 990mb to 995 in the last hour. Hay, every little bit helps.

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rmbjoe1954
Weather Master


Reged: Tue
Posts: 423
Loc: Port Saint Lucie, Florida, USA 27.37N 80.24W
Jogs [Re: pincty]
      #71310 - Sun Aug 27 2006 07:46 AM

Solutions on where Ernesto will go will continue to change- it is important to know that it is too early to know what impact this thing will have for anyone in the gulf region or for southern Florida. Regardless of Ernesto- we should always have an action plan and be prepared as if it would directly impact us. Preparation is key during hurricane season.

--------------------
________2014 Forecast: 10/4/1________

There is little chance that meteorologists can solve the mysteries of weather until they gain an understanding of the mutual attraction of rain and weekends. ~Arnot Sheppard


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cieldumort
Moderator


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1089
Loc: Texas 30.40N 97.80W
Re: Hurricane Ernesto [Re: Cat 5orBust]
      #71311 - Sun Aug 27 2006 07:50 AM

Haiti is starting to have some effect on Ernesto's structure, as can be seen here. Looks like a lot of the convection surrounding the LLC is getting hung up on some of those peaks. Still, the LLC is crossing the narrow westernmost portion of the island, and once finished, may start deepening at a faster clip, once more.

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flanewscameraman
Weather Watcher


Reged: Fri
Posts: 32
Loc: Palm Beach County, FLA
Re: Hurricane Ernesto [Re: Cat 5orBust]
      #71312 - Sun Aug 27 2006 07:55 AM

It seems each model run is taking it progressively eastward. Will this trend continue, thus resulting in more of a hit on the Keys/Southern Florida, or is there any meteorological situation set up that would keep it on its wnw track for the forseeable future

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scottsvb
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1096
Loc: fl
Re: Hurricane Ernesto [Re: flanewscameraman]
      #71313 - Sun Aug 27 2006 08:04 AM

Ernestro is impacting on Hispaniola...and will continue todo so today and with Cuba over the next day or 2....He wont get any stronger due to land interaction......if anything he should be a TS...pressure of 997 is a rise of 8 mb in only a couple hours since it was 989mb...Winds now support 60mph...fl winds now near 63kt.

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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1060
Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida 30.51N 86.50W
Re: Hurricane Ernesto [Re: flanewscameraman]
      #71314 - Sun Aug 27 2006 08:05 AM

intermediate advisory is out... now considered to be moving NW instead of NW, and it says a general NW or WNW track is expected for the next 24 hours as Hurricane Ernesto crosses the coast of Haiti and approaches the eastern tip of Cuba.

Is it just me or is SSD's visible floater page broken? The loop won't load for me at all (AVN loop does load, though).

--------------------
Hugh

Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)


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ElizabethH
Meteorologist


Reged: Mon
Posts: 56
Loc: Bay County
Re: Hurricane Ernesto [Re: Hugh]
      #71315 - Sun Aug 27 2006 08:08 AM

just saw max on the today show..."this is looking like a florida landfall".... some "models even take it into the panhandle, and to south florida".... 8pm has pressure back at 997mb....

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Beaumont, TX
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
Posts: 318
Re: Hurricane Ernesto [Re: Clark]
      #71316 - Sun Aug 27 2006 08:09 AM

Excellent point, Clark. People in the "cone of error" need to keep an eye
on Ernesto. Everyone needs to have supplies and plan ready but the track could shift west or east. Ernesto is still a few days away
from a Gulf Coast landfall.


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Cat 5orBust
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Tue
Posts: 90
Re: Hurricane Ernesto track [Re: danielw]
      #71317 - Sun Aug 27 2006 08:12 AM

unless this jumps to the west a bit more i would have to think that the track might even shift again at 11. im not sure how much of a possibility this is, but if it moved more north than west it may stay just east of florida. i know that is not a scenario at the moment. just have to wait and see.

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hope
Unregistered




Re: Hurricane Ernesto [Re: Beaumont, TX]
      #71318 - Sun Aug 27 2006 08:14 AM

Im going to stick to the GFDL. It has been nailing this storm the past couple of days calling for a NW track that many of the others did not.

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ftlaudbob
Storm Chaser


Reged: Tue
Posts: 757
Loc: Lauderdale-By- the- Sea,Fl 26.19N 80.10W
Re: Hurricane Ernesto track [Re: Cat 5orBust]
      #71319 - Sun Aug 27 2006 08:19 AM

I also believe that the track will shift more to the east at 11.There is a good chance he will be downgraded to TS status while over Cuba.The big question is what happens after Cuba.It WAS a nice "vacation" for a while,But now we are back to business.

--------------------

Survived:
Gloria,Bob,Katrina,Wilma and a bunch of tropical storms.


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charlottefl
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Mon
Posts: 94
Re: Hurricane Ernesto [Re: hope]
      #71320 - Sun Aug 27 2006 08:21 AM

The storm is going to have some hiccups as far as short term track is concerned. But in general I think the NHC has the right pattern. Even so, it is impossible to tell where in FL this thing will go. Take the west coast, from Key west to the big bend area is almost a 300 mile stretch of coastline, make sure you have everything in order and just watch the track closely, not a whole lot more you can do but wait and see what happens.

Hurricane Charley (Port Charlotte '04)


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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1060
Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida 30.51N 86.50W
Re: Hurricane Ernesto track [Re: ftlaudbob]
      #71321 - Sun Aug 27 2006 08:22 AM

Based upon current computer computer runs (at least the models I've looked at), there would be absolutely no justification in shifting the track further east. The forecast puts the hurricane into the big bend area, and the model consensus does too. No need to shift the track further east than ANY of the models put it.

--------------------
Hugh

Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)


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SirCane
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
Posts: 249
Loc: Pensacola, FL
Re: Hurricane Ernesto track [Re: ftlaudbob]
      #71322 - Sun Aug 27 2006 08:27 AM

I remember when they had Ivan going into Tampa and he hit the AL/FL border. This has been the CRAZIEST forecast shifting I think I have ever seen from the NHC.

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Cat 5orBust
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Tue
Posts: 90
Re: Hurricane Ernesto track [Re: Hugh]
      #71323 - Sun Aug 27 2006 08:27 AM

i am saying a shift to the east because of its current position and track it has taken the last day now. there are still many models that take it over the western portion of cuba and from where it is at right now that almost seems impossible to do.

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