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Archives 2000s >> 2006 News Talkbacks

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HanKFranK
User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
right shift [Re: Ronn]
      #71403 - Sun Aug 27 2006 12:37 PM

completely different situation than yesterday. for most of yesterday florida wasn't even in the 'cone' everybody always worries over... today it's the most prominent feature there behind perhaps cuba. this is one of those situations where subtleties of the track and the character of the storm make the intensity forecasts close to useless. we're going into a Dennis/charley type situation here... something with elements of both, but with some potential key differences.
ernesto appears to be a very small-core system. these can spin up and down very rapidly. Ernesto is in a very similar position to where Dennis was last year.. and Dennis spun up to a very strong category 4 as it grazed into southern cuba. Ernesto doesn't have nearly the organization or quite the upper environment Dennis had, so while it may finally deepen (hasn't really since yesterday... 997mb is usually associated with a tropical storm) some before making landfall tomorrow morning, it probably won't be a major hurricane going in. it also looks to take a longer, more tortuous track over cuba than Dennis did.. and after that the similarities with Dennis may end. Dennis did spin rapidly back up to a category 4 after leaving cuba, though.. as a note.
the similarities with Charley are that a trough will be stationed northwest of Ernesto and recurve the storm... maybe over the peninsula of florida, maybe into north florida... maybe even across southeast florida. the storm will likely be a mid-range tropical storm leaving cuba with a disrupted core. a few hours over the florida straits may or may not allow it to reorganize, so if it goes right into south florida, don't expect much of a storm. if it tracks a bit further west, say into or west of the keys, and isn't hugging the sw florida coast.. it will be doing something like what Charley did, and may be able to spin up substantially. a much weakened storm over cuba may actually be worse than a slightly weakened one, because the tendency to get further out in the gulf will be greater if the storm is weaker. just subtle factors in track here can make the difference between a tropical storm for florida, or a major hurricane. it is worth noting that the threat of a massive, large windfield hurricane that can smash hundreds of miles of coastal structures with surge is probably out of the question. the threat for a strong hurricane would be one with a tight, intense wind core that could inflict substantial structural damage close to the landfall point, and maybe a ways inland from there.
something else a tad interesting is the threat of the storm slowing down, if the ridging doesn't decay as much as shown or the trough doesn't dig as much. the storm could potentially slow to a drift over the gulf in such scenario... not strongly represented by any model, but theoretically possible. it could also move very slowly over florida and cause flooding in places.
the threat for a big hurricane hit on florida is fairly limited to the west central coast up to the big bend area. the panhandle, where i was thinking the other day... isn't totally out of the woods and if the storm were to come up there could be facing a mature and dangerous hurricane.. but right now it doesn't look like there will be enough ridging to take it there. places like georgia and the carolinas... the northeast part of florida... would maybe experience tropical storm conditions along the coastline... maybe a little stronger further up in the carolinas right near the coast if it were to move a little offshore and reintensify. lots of rain whether it does that or tracks inland... either way.
elsewhere.. debby has just about signed off for 2006... the wave/low combo near 17/33 is well-defined with weak convection, but in a region of subsidence and marginal water that should prevent any development for another day or two. mild model support for it, and it already has plenty of latitude which should promote an early recurvature for anything that might form. eastpac looking to punch out another storm, so the atlantic may very well continue active in the coming week or two.
HF 1637z27august

Edited by HanKFranK (Sun Aug 27 2006 12:43 PM)


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Thunderbird12
Meteorologist


Reged: Thu
Posts: 644
Loc: Oklahoma
Re: Hurricane Ernesto - Florida on Notice [Re: Hugh]
      #71404 - Sun Aug 27 2006 12:41 PM

Ernesto does seem to have taken more of a jog to the west recently, even dating back to the last recon fix a few hours ago, which showed much more of a westward motion from the previous fix before that. It'll be interesting to see what the next recon fix will show. The plane is getting close now, so we should have something in about an hour or so. Since the storm may still be undergoing inner core changes, some wobbling should be expected.

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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1060
Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida
Re: Hurricane Ernesto - Florida on Notice [Re: Thunderbird12]
      #71407 - Sun Aug 27 2006 12:48 PM

Agreed, some wobbling is going to happen, particularly with the COC so close to land... but if it becomes a more definitive track (in other words, if Ernesto doesn't gain some latitude in the next couple of hours), it could have a more significant impact on the track across Cuba.

Looking at thr 1615 IR image... Ernesto has almost certainly made landfall on the south coast of Haiti. The cloud tops have cooled significantly. We'll know for sure if we get a recon fix (can the recon fly into Haiti's airspace to get a vortex?)... and how the land is impacting the system, but it would surprise me not to see a downgrade at 2pm if the satellite presentation is any indication.


--------------------
Hugh

Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)


Edited by Hugh (Sun Aug 27 2006 12:51 PM)


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RevUp
Weather Guru


Reged: Sun
Posts: 180
Loc:
Re: Hurricane Ernesto - Florida on Notice [Re: Random Chaos]
      #71408 - Sun Aug 27 2006 12:51 PM

Quote:

Looking at the 85GHz pass, it looks like the central convection has wrapped 75% of the way around the core ... It seems to me that the storm is undergoing the normal reorganization required for the shift from an un-banned TS to a banded hurricane, pushing covenction away from the vortex and wrapping that convection around the core.



I was just looking at the same thing -- the SSMI data suggests that Ernesto is on the verge of becoming a real hurricane. (I believe the 997mb pressure was identical to the previous recon yesterday evening).

--------------------
"Let tomorrow worry about itself. Each day has enough trouble of its own."


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RevUp
Weather Guru


Reged: Sun
Posts: 180
Loc:
Re: Hurricane Ernesto - Florida on Notice [Re: RevUp]
      #71410 - Sun Aug 27 2006 01:00 PM

New thread started ...

--------------------
"Let tomorrow worry about itself. Each day has enough trouble of its own."


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chaser1
Unregistered




Re: Hurricane Ernesto - Florida on Notice [Re: Hugh]
      #71411 - Sun Aug 27 2006 01:03 PM

Hi folks.... Is not only enjoyable to access quick updates via this forum, but also the array of input. I have chased hurricanes going back to Danny in 'Lousiana ( may give away age ), and have seen a lot over the years. Even still, the complexities and nuances of each Hurricane Season and each storm make this science as fascinating as it is. I would say that given the overall envelope size, small core structure, and potential land interaction, Ernesto may be quite the canditate for being a "jumper". Given the more mountainous E. Cuba topo., as well as potentially ideal upper anticyclonic outflow, I can see a fairly quick degeneration of Ernesto's surface circulation, of course less evident at 850mb. Assuming that a full 24 hours or longer is spent over Cuba, the risk is significantly reduced to the extreme S. Florida area and Keys. However, if Ernesto were to be moving at a trajectory of perhaps 310 degrees or greater at the time, than it would not surprise me if significant bursting north of the Cuban coast and south and east of Andros Island, may have a center relocation form under that CDO. Such an event would seem in character with this systems poleward wobbles. Such a relocation would of course appear as a northward jog, but then re-establish a more NW motion. Of course, with each hour of slower forward motion ( and slight deepening ), the ULL in the W. Carib. continues to move away, thus one less player helping to nudge Ernesto more NW'ward. That being said, just one "wrinkle" to watch for. In such an event, and thus given more time over the Florida Straights, with potentially ideal upper air, those in S. Fla might not face a "major" hurricane, but a significant and deepening system nonetheless.

One sidenote, I beleive we are truly seeing a track pattern which would tends to make me think that this will not be the last storm this year to threaten Cuba and S. Florida this year.


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StPeteBill
Weather Watcher


Reged: Wed
Posts: 42
Loc: Pinellas County
Re: Hurricane Ernesto track [Re: NEWS PHOTOG]
      #71448 - Sun Aug 27 2006 02:01 PM

No lines here at the gas stations in St Pete either but just left Lowe's, finally bought a generator after putting it off for 10+ years. Lowe's was already packed and I can honestly say the people were not there buying plants. While I was getting my generator I saw 4 others being purchased also. I am not in a panic and am not worried as long as Tampa Bay is the bullseye as we all know the storm never hits right on the mark.

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Ryan
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
Posts: 281
Loc: Long Island, NY / Stuart, FL
Cat 3 to hit near Spring Hill, FL [Re: StPeteBill]
      #71455 - Sun Aug 27 2006 02:05 PM

Ernesto will cross Cuba loosing some strength, but then regain that strength, and more entering the Gulf. I think Hurricane Ernesto will become a cat. 3 or 4 and make landfall just north of Clearwater, St.Petersburg, and Tampa area. Landfall i believe will be near Spring Hill, FL. I just hope FEMA is ready for this one. They need to start proving themselves over there.

Good Luck To All.

--------------------
2006 Atlantic Season Summary:
Bad, But Not AS Bad.

Life's a Storm, Watch Your Back


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