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Archives >> 2006 News Talkbacks

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Lee-Delray
Weather Master


Reged: Thu
Posts: 429
Re: Ernesto Over Water [Re: Genesis]
      #72566 - Tue Aug 29 2006 04:53 PM

From the 5:00 PM

During the day...Ernesto became somewhat more organized-looking on radar and satellite images. Recently...however...the presentation has become a bit ragged-looking on the imagery. Flight-level winds have not increased...and the fall in central pressure this afternoon was roughly commensurate with the typical semi-diurnal pressure change. In other words...Ernesto is not strengthening. It is somewhat puzzling why the tropical cyclone has not intensified today. One negative factor might be modest easterly shear as suggested by water vapor images and a westward tilt of the vortex with height as implied by center position estimates from aircraft flying at 1500 and 7500 feet as well as WSR-88D radar. There is still a narrow window of opportunity for Ernesto to gain some strength before reaching Florida...but that window will soon close. After Ernesto moves back over water and approaches the southeast U.S. Coast...dynamical guidance suggests that the system could approach hurricane strength. Therefore a Hurricane Watch has been issued for portions of the Georgia coast...the South Carolina coast...and a portion of the North Carolina coast.


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sprghill
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Sat
Posts: 13
Loc: Lake County, FL 28.54N 81.72W
Re: Ernesto Over Water [Re: Genesis]
      #72567 - Tue Aug 29 2006 04:55 PM

was wathing bn9 and viper has the storm father west then the new track. it also has it exiting in jaxville. could this still happen and how accorate is viper

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Colleen A.
Moderator


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1364
Loc: Florida
Re: Ernesto Over Water [Re: sprghill]
      #72568 - Tue Aug 29 2006 05:07 PM

VIPIR has been pretty accurate with this storm as it was with other systems. It called for the leftward shift at 5pm last night and it did happen at 11pm.

One important thing to remember: no matter where it hits, most of us will be feeling some kind of affect from him. Luckily, it isn't strengthening right now ... but don't let that fool you. It will still bring some nasty weather along with it. So stay on your toes!

--------------------
You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.


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offdalip
Unregistered




Re: Ernesto Over Water [Re: sprghill]
      #72569 - Tue Aug 29 2006 05:07 PM

Well , Steve Jerve just off tampa said VIPIR latest model run was now shifted a touch to the east now as opposed to the earlier tracks VIPIR had going over tampa bay. It looked like it was more in aggreement with the NHC forecast track now.

Landfall was still west of NHC tho', prolly around ft myers according to their model then exiting just south of jax


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LaVidaCyclone
Weather Watcher


Reged: Tue
Posts: 30
Loc: SW FL
Re: Ernesto Over Water [Re: offdalip]
      #72571 - Tue Aug 29 2006 05:23 PM

Sorry if this info has been posted already. This graphic from NBC2 Fort Myers shows that Ernesto could briefly enter slightly warmer water if it moves to the west of the NHC's predicted path. Warmer water typically means stronger storm if I'm not mistaken. Maybe one of the weather experts could chime in on this.

http://www.nbc-2.com/articles/readarticle.asp?articleid=8596&z=3&p=

Edited by LaVidaCyclone (Tue Aug 29 2006 05:28 PM)


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JMII
Weather Guru


Reged: Thu
Posts: 161
Loc: Margate, Florida 26.26N 80.22W
Re: Ernesto Over Water [Re: offdalip]
      #72573 - Tue Aug 29 2006 05:25 PM

It's looking really bad on the water vapor loop, very compressed and oblong, even the radar shows a big dry patch in SE quad. However watching the radar the west motion is clearly evident, but the storm is so ripped up the true center is become less defined thus pinpointing the landfall is anyone's guess. Due to this weakness the center's actual location really doesn't matter the worst weather is in the feeder bands to the N and E based on what I'm seeing.

As for the future track I don't see how it can survive its trek thru the state of FL, in fact the NHC shows it exiting as TS but it's barely at that level now. It surived its brief encounter with Haiti and managed to barely hang in while cutting across Cuba, so will FL be the death of it??? I know central FL needs the rain so hopefuly some good will come out of this crazy storm.

--------------------
South FL Native... experienced:
David ('79) - Floyd ('87) - Andrew ('92) - Georges ('98) - Irene ('99) - Frances & Jeanne ('04) - Katrina & Wilma ('05)


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cieldumort
Moderator


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1089
Loc: Texas 30.40N 97.80W
Re: Ernesto Over Water [Re: LaVidaCyclone]
      #72575 - Tue Aug 29 2006 05:29 PM

Quote:

Warmer water typically means stronger storm if I'm not mistaken.




Absolutely overrated, IMHO. Warmer water is but just one ingredient of many (most of which having little to do with the sea surface temperature, and everything to do with the atmosphere). Ernesto's best chance for strengthening will come when he may find a healthy outflow channel forming if/as he exits Florida to the northeast (assuming he is over water when he does).


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Lee-Delray
Weather Master


Reged: Thu
Posts: 429
Re: Ernesto Over Water [Re: JMII]
      #72576 - Tue Aug 29 2006 05:29 PM

I doubt Ernesto will break up over Florida. It still has some warm water to go over, then the Everglades and eventually Lake O. We're a flat sandy State, there is no wind sheer and all the models show strengthening when it leaves.

I agree it will be predominately a rainmaker, but I none the less closed the office until noon tomorrow; assuming we have electricty.


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Colleen A.
Moderator


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1364
Loc: Florida
Re: Ernesto Over Water [Re: cieldumort]
      #72578 - Tue Aug 29 2006 05:38 PM

Has the high to our north begun to move to the east yet?
I think the models are split in two --- some favor a ride along the southern gulf coast of FL and then going in, and some have it coming up straight through the state exiting (ironically) near Melbourne/Daytona Beach. It also looks like the *strong* High to the east of Florida (which was supposedly a *weak* high yesterday) is affecting Ernesto, which is inhibiting any strengthening because it is causing some shear.
I just wish Ernesto would do whatever it is he's going to do already!!

--------------------
You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.


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LaVidaCyclone
Weather Watcher


Reged: Tue
Posts: 30
Loc: SW FL
Re: Ernesto Over Water [Re: Lee-Delray]
      #72579 - Tue Aug 29 2006 05:39 PM

I think this cam is near Key Largo...looks like they're getting some good rain. There's a funny looking cloud dropping down there...hope it's not something more than just a cloud.

http://sim_fdot.smartraveler.com/64.jpg


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Lee-Delray
Weather Master


Reged: Thu
Posts: 429
Re: Ernesto Over Water [Re: Colleen A.]
      #72580 - Tue Aug 29 2006 05:42 PM

Not comparing storms, strength paths or anything to deal with science, but this reminds me of Francis & Jeanne in 2004.

Wait, then wait some more then when that' s over keep waitng.


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HanKFranK
User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC 33.56N 81.82W
they see it too... [Re: Lee-Delray]
      #72581 - Tue Aug 29 2006 05:42 PM

the 5:30 TWO is out. interesting that the NHC mentioned the wave/low near 18/43. it finally sprouted some convection this afternoon.. still a broad and mostly dry gyre, but as it gets over progressively warmer water it has some potential if the trend continues. shear profile for now and the future look marginal to fair. starting point for it would be quite high in latitude, so likely no threat to land... troughiness in the central atlantic would likely serve to draw it up early.
the wave near 28w with a nice flare on the ITCZ is moving westward also. the GFS and some of the other globals keep showing it acting up some, also. tis the season for that sort of thing. if it develops during the workweek then a probable recurver also. if it waits around maybe it can get further west.
closer to home.. hey, we've got a broad-centered, weak tropical storm moving into the keys. not the scariest storm i've seen lately--thus far it's not even challenging alberto for worst storm to hit florida this season. they slapped a hurricane watch up on the coast down state... guess they're taking the baroclinic intensification as a real possibility as it rides up. still leaning on the mostly northward solutions... they keep discounting the northeastward tracks given by some of the globals. those same models have been trending westward--the official looks pretty good for that reason.
the way things look, i don't think Ernesto will even cause widespread power outages in florida.. nothing they can't have back up in a day or so. not the sort of thing that 2004 and 2005 got you guys used to.
HF 2142z29august


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7 Deadly Zins
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Sun
Posts: 12
Loc: Nashville, TN
Re: Ernesto Over Water [Re: Lee-Delray]
      #72582 - Tue Aug 29 2006 05:42 PM

Radar and satellite pretty much show Ernesto is moving inland right now. The heavy convection to the North of the center is moving over the upper keys and some more from the Northeast is approaching the Florida southeast coast. A large area around the center is actually clearing out of convection and cloud cover.
I would be surprised if any reporting stations record sustained tropical force winds beyond the keys.


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LaVidaCyclone
Weather Watcher


Reged: Tue
Posts: 30
Loc: SW FL
Re: Ernesto Over Water [Re: cieldumort]
      #72583 - Tue Aug 29 2006 05:43 PM

Quote:

Absolutely overrated, IMHO.


I hope you're right. Let's hope it just ends up being a soaker from here on out.

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pcola
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 344
Loc: pensacola/gulf breeze
Re: Ernesto Over Water [Re: LaVidaCyclone]
      #72584 - Tue Aug 29 2006 05:49 PM

The water over the everglades and in Lake O will not do much in helping the storm..remember storms nedd warm DEEP water...that is why often storms weaken near shore, because the water is shallow, but usually hotter than the water farther out (see Ivan, Katrina, Dennis)...it is going to have a difficult time holding together, and may even get caught up in the trough and not be a threat farterup the coast......

--------------------
Erin 95 , Opal 95, Ivan 04, Dennis 05, and that's enough!!!!


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nc_tropical_wx79
Weather Guru


Reged: Fri
Posts: 123
Re: they see it too... [Re: HanKFranK]
      #72585 - Tue Aug 29 2006 05:51 PM

Do you believe Ernesto will make it across FL alive & intact and also what path do you see most likely Ernesto to take once it leaves FL and at what intensity? So far they have us in NC getting 1-3 inches of rain and gusts could be as high as 40mph.

--------------------
W.D. Duncan


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Lee-Delray
Weather Master


Reged: Thu
Posts: 429
Re: Ernesto Over Water [Re: pcola]
      #72586 - Tue Aug 29 2006 05:54 PM

I agree on the warm DEEP water, but I was making a case that there was nothing in Florida to break it apart. I don't see it strengthening, but he ain't dying either.

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BillD
Weather Analyst


Reged: Wed
Posts: 396
Loc: Miami 25.70N 80.29W
Re: Ernesto Over Water [Re: Colleen A.]
      #72587 - Tue Aug 29 2006 06:02 PM

Quote:

Has the high to our north begun to move to the east yet?




Yes, west side of the high is eroding and providing an opening for Ernesto to start to turn Northward, right on schedule. I think that is why Ernesto is stretched out now (this is really clear in the NW ATL WV Loop )

The good news right now for those of us in So FL is that Ernesto just hasn't pulled it together. We're about to get a rather nasty looking rain band, but behind it I don't see much. But we're just going to hunker down and wait, anything could still happen.

Bill


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HumbleStormKat
Registered User


Reged: Wed
Posts: 2
Loc: New Port Richey, FL
Re: Ernesto Over Water [Re: Colleen A.]
      #72588 - Tue Aug 29 2006 06:03 PM

Call me silly, but it almost looks to me as if Ernesto is trying to shift his COC to the SSW of where it is now. That would keep him over water, but with that strong shear moving in from the west, he'll run out of room to grow in a hurry. Nice try, Ernesto!

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Josh Delsman
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Sun
Posts: 70
Loc: Miami, FL 25.77N 80.19W
Re: Ernesto Over Water [Re: HumbleStormKat]
      #72591 - Tue Aug 29 2006 06:13 PM

According to the latest recon fix it seems that:

A. The surface winds have increased to 45kt, which is forecast to happen by the TPC, so nothing out of the ordinary. The reason I bring it up is because it was 25kt just an hour ago. Coincidence? I don't know.

B. Overall during the day, the storm has been moving on a NW-NNW course, but over the last hour or two, recon fixes and radar show that the center has been moving a bit to the NNW. Is this the turn that the TPC predicted would happen, albeit a few more hours in the future? Again, I don't know it's just an educated guess on my part.

Takes on these two new pieces of information?

--------------------
MyHurricane - Forecast models, wind radii, latest watches and warnings and more
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