amonty
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Thu
Posts: 66
Loc: Clearwater, Fl
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Quote:
Not sure why anyone will be upset with forcasting for . They were right on the money. Everyone was expecting this Westward movement of the track, which I failed to see the rational for yesterday. We know intensity is hard to forecast and even I was a little weary of not putting a Hurricane Warning up, but they even nailed they intensity.
No they didn't they were off by 10Kts. They admit they were wrong, they were dumbfounded as to why he didn't strengthen in the straits, although they believe it was caused by "light easterly shear". The 's avg forecast for intensity is subject to + or - 20KTS each day. They barely made this.
Here is my references>
from the Forecast Advisory #17
FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 26.1N 80.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 25SW 25NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 50SW 50NW.
And Disco 21 explains the inability to forecast the correct intensity
IN OTHER WORDS...ERNESTO IS NOT STRENGTHENING.
IT IS SOMEWHAT PUZZLING WHY THE TROPICAL CYCLONE HAS NOT
INTENSIFIED TODAY. ONE NEGATIVE FACTOR MIGHT BE MODEST EASTERLY SHEAR AS SUGGESTED BY WATER VAPOR IMAGES AND A WESTWARD TILT OF THE VORTEX WITH HEIGHT AS IMPLIED BY CENTER POSITION ESTIMATES FROM AIRCRAFT FLYING AT 1500 AND 7500 FEET AS WELL AS WSR-88D RADAR
Edited by MikeC (Wed Aug 30 2006 10:57 AM)
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Thunderbird12
Meteorologist
Reged: Thu
Posts: 644
Loc: Oklahoma
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It seems as though storms that are significantly disrupted by land often struggle to regain much strength, even when conditions appear favorable. A system that was once much stronger but has been weakened by land is not necessarily the same as a system which is weak but just in the process of developing. While the shear over never weakened as much as expected, it was not strong enough to keep a system traveling over very warm water at minimal tropical storm strength. It was the land interaction that likely kept in check.
Ironically, it is interaction with the peninsula of Florida (which isn't nearly as devastating to a tropical system as Haiti or Cuba) that may help the circulation finally tighten up again, though if it lingers too long over land, it will lose whatever benefit it gained. The whole thing will start to come apart if isn't back over water in 12 hours or less.
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LisaC
Weather Watcher
Reged: Wed
Posts: 39
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They nailed the fact that this was not going to be a hurricane at landfall on the penisular and therefore did not issue hurricane warning. Everything else you pointed out is all within the errors of predicting. This is a science, there has to be and will be acceptable errors, so your point is moot.
Edited by LisaC (Wed Aug 30 2006 10:44 AM)
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LoisCane
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged: Fri
Posts: 1198
Loc: South Florida
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Winds south 22 and gusting to 42, barometer 29.70 F here in North Miami Beach and I think nailed it. Very good job with a wierd tstorm who refused to go by general rules.
Went slowly ocer straits with water temps of 86 and didn't intensify and can't see how moch will be left when it gets into atlantic.. Not sure but imagine naples and west coast are in it now.
I think a pretty good job.
I keep losing power off and on here. Briefly but when fan stops blowing yu notice.
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http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/
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recmod
Weather Guru
Reged: Sun
Posts: 188
Loc: Orlando, FL
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How can ANYONE say that the was "right on" with their forecast? They did not have a grasp on this storm from the beginning right up through landfall. The storm was "supposed" to be a GOM Cat 3-4 hurricane affecting the upper Central Gulf Coast. That certainly didn't verify.
Everytime the predicted a particular course for , the storm went in its own direction. Example: it was NEVER supposed to go over Haiti and emerge off the north coast of Cuba in the Atlantic. Granted, forecasts 3-5 days out have an expected error rate, but the didn't even nail down directional nor intensity trends correctly within a 12-24 hour frame. When the storm moved into eastern Cuba, forecast a fairly quick reemergence over water. had other plans and turned West, staying over land almost a full 18-24 hours longer than expected. Once over water in the Florida Straits, intensification was forecast, which did not happen at all. Why was that second ULL over the Bahamas (that seemed to impede intensification after emerged N of Cuba) not forseen? They forecasted nearly ideal environmental conditions once the original ULL moved off to the west over the Yucatan.
I am not bashing in any way. Overall, they do an excellent job. But, for some reason with this storm, the models and all computer guidance they rely on for forecasting did not verify. There is still a LOT we have to learn on the mechanisms that drive the weather, and is a perfect example of this.
--Lou
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Thunderbird12
Meteorologist
Reged: Thu
Posts: 644
Loc: Oklahoma
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Ernesto downgraded to a depression in the latest advisory. Also,
AT 11 AM EDT...THE HURRICANE WATCH FROM THE SAVANNAH RIVER NORTHWARD
TO CAPE FEAR NORTH CAROLINA HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.
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Lee-Delray
Weather Master
Reged: Thu
Posts: 429
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If I remember from our previous blogs, these little storms are hard to predict. They are easily influenced by a number of factors that wouldn't affect a large, stable system.
Ernesto got the snot banged out of it by Haiti, then got the s**t kicked out of it by Cuba.
There was no recon over Cuba so the models couldn't initialize properly. When they were able to go up, the Keys were already getting rain.
So we learned that science has a long way to go and the is very good; not perfect.
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Josh Delsman
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Sun
Posts: 70
Loc: Miami, FL 25.77N 80.19W
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Quote:
How can ANYONE say that the was "right on" with their forecast? They did not have a grasp on this storm from the beginning right up through landfall. The storm was "supposed" to be a GOM Cat 3-4 hurricane affecting the upper Central Gulf Coast. That certainly didn't verify.
Unfortunately, intensity forecasts aren't necessarily a huge success in many storms. "Easy" forecasting would be great, but there are definitely things that forecasters can't foresee. For example, the SHIPS model doesn't take into account land interaction, so the experienced forecaster has to make adjustments to the official forecast. The dynamics are there, and to take a 120 hour intensity forecast seriously on your part wasn't the brightest idea.
Quote:
Everytime the predicted a particular course for , the storm went in its own direction. Example: it was NEVER supposed to go over Haiti and emerge off the north coast of Cuba in the Atlantic. Granted, forecasts 3-5 days out have an expected error rate, but the didn't even nail down directional nor intensity trends correctly within a 12-24 hour frame. When the storm moved into eastern Cuba, forecast a fairly quick reemergence over water. had other plans and turned West, staying over land almost a full 18-24 hours longer than expected. Once over water in the Florida Straits, intensification was forecast, which did not happen at all. Why was that second ULL over the Bahamas (that seemed to impede intensification after emerged N of Cuba) not forseen? They forecasted nearly ideal environmental conditions once the original ULL moved off to the west over the Yucatan.
I find it quite amusing how one could assume that a storm is supposed to go anywhere. We've learned over many years that storms are unpredictable in many respects. The nailed down within a 20-30 mile track error where the storm was going to go before it even hit Cuba on Monday — the southern coast of Florida, right where it did! This much is public record, and you can search many archives for the maps — even at the archives already collected and ready to be seen.
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Josh Delsman
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Sun
Posts: 70
Loc: Miami, FL 25.77N 80.19W
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To prove my point:
Adjusted to fit forum specs! -J
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Edited by Josh Delsman (Wed Aug 30 2006 11:09 AM)
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LisaC
Weather Watcher
Reged: Wed
Posts: 39
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The cone proves my point also.. Two ago they had the forcast path through Cuba and up the pennisular right on the money. I don't know how anyone can dispute that.
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StormHound
Weather Guru
Reged: Sun
Posts: 154
Loc: Orlando, FL
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All of the arguments over whether the was right or wrong need to move to the Forecasting forum. The news threads are for discussion of the current storm or lack thereof.
Thank You
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Storm Hound
Computer Geek
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CarolinaGurl
Weather Watcher
Reged: Tue
Posts: 35
Loc: Wilmington/Kure Beach, NC 34.11N 77.91W
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Quote:
Ernesto downgraded to a depression in the latest advisory. Also,
AT 11 AM EDT...THE HURRICANE WATCH FROM THE SAVANNAH RIVER NORTHWARD
TO CAPE FEAR NORTH CAROLINA HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.
but there is still a Tropical Storm Warning for that area.
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My Storms - Hugo, Bertha, Bonnie, Fran, Dennis, Floyd, Ophelia, Ernesto, Irene
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Dougyd
Verified CFHC User
Reged: Wed
Posts: 17
Loc: Sanibel
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I am looking at Intellicast (Miami Radar) and the center seems to be drifting NNW but it is still well-formed. I guess the center is expected to move NE soon. Any thoughts?
http://www.intellicast.com/IcastPage/Loa...mp;prodnav=none
Thanks to all of the folks that make this site possible.
Doug
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Josh Delsman
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Sun
Posts: 70
Loc: Miami, FL 25.77N 80.19W
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Quote:
I am looking at Intellicast (Miami Radar) and the center seems to be drifting NNW but it is still well-formed. I guess the center is expected to move NE soon. Any thoughts?
http://www.intellicast.com/IcastPage/Loa...mp;prodnav=none
Thanks to all of the folks that make this site possible.
Doug
Doug,
Compare the actual COC latitude and longitude given by the at 11AM to where it may be on the radar. I think you may not be looking at the actual center of circulation.
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Lee-Delray
Weather Master
Reged: Thu
Posts: 429
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Ernesto still has a TS warning for NC because it could get stronger when it leaves Florida. The models are predicting the same; better safe then sorry.
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HanKFranK
User
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC 33.56N 81.82W
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it's a little south of clewiston.. should be passing over lake okeechobee soon. the center did discernably tighten last night, with the pressure falling to around 1001 mb this morning. have to see what it starts doing this afternoon. sometimes a storm coming off will start to deepen before it goes feet wet... an early start at that may increase the threat to the carolinas. if the center doesn't redevelop east or something, should be coming off a little south of the earlier expected location.. maybe closer to melbourne. it's in a weak baroclinic environment now, which should help it deepen at least some. if the center isn't too disrupted by passage over florida it may deepen more quickly. southerly shear should begin to increase and accelerate the storm by tonight, also.
the forecast track keeps hanging on south carolina, but i wouldn't be surprised if it goes a little further to the east. the warnings haven't been extended up the nc coast, but will have to be as the gradient with that high descending into the northeast will jack up the onshore flow in the mid-atlantic states.
gfdl keeps showing a hurricane in the charleston area. it has had a knack for this storm so far. that's the only thing that really makes me think it'll hit sc. grand strand to the wilmington area strikes me as most likely, instinctually... worst weather east of the center passage.
HF 1534z30august
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Josh Delsman
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Sun
Posts: 70
Loc: Miami, FL 25.77N 80.19W
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Found this to be a bit interesting! These are NWS surface winds from 10:50-11:49 EST. According to this graphic, the center appears to be a bit north and west of the 's center fix. But, nevertheless, the center is still organized on land, and I wouldn't be surprised to see winds increase once the center goes offshore late this afternoon.
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mcmic40
Unregistered
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Can you post the link at NWS where you got the surface winds graphic? I'd like to see updates later.
Thanks,
Mcmic in Tampa
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Josh Delsman
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Sun
Posts: 70
Loc: Miami, FL 25.77N 80.19W
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Quote:
Can you post the link at NWS where you got the surface winds graphic? I'd like to see updates later.
Thanks,
Mcmic in Tampa
I actually generated that graphic myself using Digital Atmosphere. That program is available (at cost) at http://weathergraphics.com/.
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Sheeper
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Wed
Posts: 58
Loc: Vero Beach, FL 27.62N 80.35W
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from the Indian River County ESF6 desk, as of 1300 (1pm) all shelters in Indian RIver will be closing.
The impact of here has been minimal at most.
good luck to all in the Carolinas!
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Emergency Management Consultant & Trainer
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