zacman2400
Registered User
Reged: Sat
Posts: 3
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Notice that from almost his inception, has had periodic blow -ups of convection. Then the convecton dissipated or got blown off (from shear and whatever else held down this system). The only thing this tended to do, was make us all rush to our computers and say that was strengthening. I agree with what Hank said, that it is probably daytime heating, but who knows with this storm?
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doug
Weather Analyst
Reged: Mon
Posts: 780
Loc: parrish,fl 27.53N 82.44W
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What is really amazing to me is that some of the most recent radar returns indicate banding on the west side is intensifying and new ones are forming.
Not a system that is dissapating for sure. 1003 MB is lower than last night.
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doug
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Larscotland
Registered User
Reged: Tue
Posts: 8
Loc: NE Mississippi
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As I reacll, there have been several mention that they had seen what appeared to be two or three centers during his stay over Cuba. Is there, on record, another hurricane / TS / TD that divided into two different hurricanes? This may make everyone right if it should form another over the GOM and head NNW.
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Tampa_Lyle
Registered User
Reged: Wed
Posts: 2
Loc: Clearwater, Florida
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Hello,
I'm newly-registered but a long time visitor--the storm has definitely re-intensified since this morning. The center is pretty well-defined now, as compared to last evening. I'm just wondering if there is a westward drift occuring now, since that new eye mentioned is east of Sebring. This storm is not finished yet!
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Loved Alma in '66--hated Frances in '04
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nc_tropical_wx79
Weather Guru
Reged: Fri
Posts: 123
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My thing is yes it has spiraling bands and center tightened and look good right now but will it fall apart at sunset at night once the durinal period is gone. It looks good I just want to know before I get excited or not is it real or temporary(meaning going to be around after sunset).
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W.D. Duncan
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Ed in Va
Weather Master
Reged: Fri
Posts: 488
Loc: 36.02N 75.67W
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NHC is not impressed with the flare-up. Little change at 5, aside from extension of warning to Cape Lookout.
http://weather.sun-sentinel.com/tropical/tracking/at200605.html
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Survived Carol and Edna '54 in Maine. Guess this kind of dates me!
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Bee-Beep
Verified CFHC User
Reged: Tue
Posts: 21
Loc: Naples, FL.
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The pressure has dropped by 2 mb's... Isn't that strange for a storm that's inland? Maybe those flare-up of convection has something to do with it? Correct me if I'm wrong
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Hurricane Season 2007: 16/8/4
Kirk J.
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nc_tropical_wx79
Weather Guru
Reged: Fri
Posts: 123
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NHC has pressure at 1001mb so what does the pressure need to be for a minimum TS? How close or how far is from being a TS? It seems that the have noticed 's appearance right now and convective flare ups! The 5pm discussion says the well defined center and flare ups of make them believe that he will strengthen slightly once over the water again. So if he can hold it together he'll have a slightly better chance at intensifying over the water.
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W.D. Duncan
Edited by nc_tropical_wx79 (Wed Aug 30 2006 04:49 PM)
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Ed in Va
Weather Master
Reged: Fri
Posts: 488
Loc: 36.02N 75.67W
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Not sure, but, given the difficulty in predicting intensity, I think we have a ways to go with E, especially since it will be over water for 24-26 hours. Diurnal heating may be part of the explanation for the resurgence this afternoon, but it didn't happen yesterday.
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Survived Carol and Edna '54 in Maine. Guess this kind of dates me!
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HanKFranK
User
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC 33.56N 81.82W
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tropical systems are rated on winds, not pressure. that's how crossed the mississippi delta with a 920mb central pressure and was a category 3.
the center is passing the yeehaw junction area right now, out where the turnpike and 441 cross. starting to yaw a little more to the east. pressure at vero, 25 miles away or so, is 1003 mb.. implies lower at the center. the earlier central pressure at 1003 was estimated, as reporting stations are scarce in the glades/okeechobee region. interesting too that vero recently reported a gust just to gale force. we'll have the center track over or very near the weather stations at melbourne, patrick afb, cape canaveral, and titusville... so plenty of data from near the center. be interesting if it starts falling prior to the storm moving off.
awful lot of heavy rain on those bands west of the center... should be a very wet evening in the orlando area.
extrapolation puts the center just west of melbourne at 8 pm, and over the kennedy space center around 9-9:30... then out into the atlantic. the official forecast implies a landfall near georgetown sc as a 50 mph tropical storm. i like the location ok, but would bet on something more like 60-70 mph.
HF 2056z30august
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Lee-Delray
Weather Master
Reged: Thu
Posts: 429
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I note that when he was a TS the pressure was around 1004-1007. It might be that the winds have not caught up to the lower pressure which will probably happen over the Atlantic.
Why it's still somewhat intact over Florida is that there really isn't much here to break it up. It started over the Everglades which is shallow warm water (yes I know storms need DEEP water), went over flat land and then Lake O. While land inhibits these things, mountains do a better job.
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nc_tropical_wx79
Weather Guru
Reged: Fri
Posts: 123
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Ed can you tell me how close is to the coast/shore and how much longer or what time he'll be moving off land back into the water?
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W.D. Duncan
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recmod
Weather Guru
Reged: Sun
Posts: 188
Loc: Orlando, FL
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First, I want to apologise to everyone on this board. (Ed, please let this post go through). To me, the members of this forum are like a second family and I feel my comments earlier regarding the 's performance with has stirred up trouble, which I deeply regret. I had no intent of starting a debate over the integrity of the National Hurricane Center. Maybe I did not get my intended point across clearly. What I MEANT to convey was that was a storm that, from its inception, defied virtually every forecast in both intensity and path followed. I know the folks at the Hurricane Center have the absolute best forecasters and high tech computer equipment available to assist in supplying the most accurate forecast possible. I was trying to convey that was a system that seemed to disregard the known parameters that control storm intensity and direction of movement. Everyone must agree that the models just seemed to not be able to get a good grip on this storm, with the HUGE flip-flop from an early predicted Texas/Louisiana border-ish landfall to the final model calls for a Miami area strike.
What changed so dramatically in the atmosphere to alter so drastically the eventual forecast? Isn't the 5 day forecast error typically in the range of 300 miles? With , the call was off by over 700 miles (estimated distance from the LA/TX border to Miami).
This same question holds true for the intensity issue. I know that was negatively affected by the fact that the center moved over many land masses for an extended period of time, but even once the storm encountered seemingly ideal conditions over water, it simply failed to strengthen. Even Max Mayfield stated that he was mystified at the complete lack of intensification yesterday with .
As I already stated, my intent was not to bash the in any way, but I was hoping to get some input from those on this forum much more knowledgeable (you know who you are! ) as to why just didn't play by "the rules".
Thanks for letting this post go through and again I apologise if I offended anyone with my earlier post.
--Lou
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Josh Delsman
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Sun
Posts: 70
Loc: Miami, FL 25.77N 80.19W
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Quote:
Isn't the 5 day forecast error typically in the range of 300 miles? With , the call was off by over 700 miles (estimated distance from the LA/TX border to Miami).
I believe that you're misinterpreting the forecasts. First off, the initial set of forecasts was for a weak system that hadn't really gotten its act together. Secondly, the forecast was correct well in advance of any danger to the United States, which is its purpose — period. I think there were a few variables that required the storm:
A.) Become better developed
B.) Required recon work
Therefore, while I appreciate the clarification, I still stand by my strong belief that the was in the right in this one. I think all further discussion should be placed in the forecast forum!
a'ite you guys, you've had your say... this is somewhat relevant, but let's get back to the storm now. -HF
Edited by HanKFranK (Wed Aug 30 2006 05:23 PM)
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Josh Delsman
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Sun
Posts: 70
Loc: Miami, FL 25.77N 80.19W
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Quote:
Ed can you tell me how close is to the coast/shore and how much longer or what time he'll be moving off land back into the water?
I actually think its about to move back over the water in another 30-45 minutes. Check out the Melbourne radar! It is just southwest of the base station.
Corrected. -J
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Edited by Josh Delsman (Wed Aug 30 2006 05:30 PM)
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recmod
Weather Guru
Reged: Sun
Posts: 188
Loc: Orlando, FL
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I actually believe that the center is still located just to the east Sebring as seen on the Melbourne radar. That would verify with the 5pm advisory location of 27.6N, 80.8W
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prideman
Verified CFHC User
Reged: Fri
Posts: 11
Loc: Darlington, SC
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Weather Channel Lyons said at 5pm that it appeared that the center had relocated a little to the west of its original plot which could mean it stays over land a little longer. Getting alot of rain in NC right now, going to have a major flooding event if things do not change. Looks like Hank wants to send this thing in right over me as I am a little north of Georgetown. 
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prideman
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HanKFranK
User
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC 33.56N 81.82W
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pride... don't think it would be all that bad. you're more northwest of there. if it does georgetown then the center would track inland to near dillon. you guys get the west flank.. not much wind, but yeah, probably a lot of rain. there is some localized flooding in parts of sc today with severe thunderstorms ahead of this trough that's drawing up ... could be more where that came from tomorrow.
HF 2147z30august
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Beaumont, TX
Storm Tracker
Reged: Tue
Posts: 318
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Five day forecast: The center of the storm can move 350 miles left or right of the projected path. But storms have a "mind of their
own" so to speak.
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danielw
Moderator
Reged: Wed
Posts: 3403
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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Melbourne Airport observation is coming in with the lowest Statewide pressure right now... I believe the other stations should be updating shortly.
22:50Z Light Rain temp-77 dew pt-73 vis-1.75 baro-1001.8 wind-ESE 17kt Gusting to 28kts
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