GuppieGrouper
Weather Master
Reged: Fri
Posts: 596
Loc: Polk County, Florida
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When the official center of the storm gets off shore, will the rain and weather increase over the western side southwest of the storm? I have too, noticed that all day long the bulk of the convection has seemed to be southwest. It seems like weather is triggered a lot further from the center of the storm.
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God commands. Laymen guess. Scientists record.
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danielw
Moderator
Reged: Wed
Posts: 3384
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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This is probably better being answered by a MET. I've noticed the same 'runup' on the SW Quadrant.
My best guess is either lifting or forcing of the air currents. Or both. Wind currents over the GOM are picking up warm moist air and it's rising and condensing once it arrives over land.
Strange that it's not doing the same over the Atlantic side. The SSTs there shouldn't be much different that the GOM. ( 2 degrees cooler in the Gulf Stream...maybe )
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edaguyinccbch
Unregistered
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Pressure in Merritt Island is 998. Looks like as more of the COC is off the coast, that the pressure is starting to drop.
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WeatherNut
Weather Master
Reged: Wed
Posts: 412
Loc: Atlanta, GA 33.81N 84.34W
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According to Melbourne long range radar loop...its now offshore (the center that is).
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Born into Cleo (64)...been stuck on em ever since
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Tony Cristaldi
NWS Meteorologist
Reged: Fri
Posts: 39
Loc: West Melbourne, Florida
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Quote:
According to Melbourne long range radar loop...its now offshore (the center that is).
It's not quite there yet. CCAFS mesonet data shows it's almost there, but still over Merritt Island as of 0200 UTC.
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/smg/KSCMNET.htm
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nc_tropical_wx79
Weather Guru
Reged: Fri
Posts: 123
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what direction is moving in right now and will this motion continue? Also should I still look for a landfall in or close to Charleston, SC and if not where? I believe landfall will be Cape Romain, SC . Here's a map to find it because I ad a hard time myself especially not being in/from SC. SC MAP
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W.D. Duncan
Edited by nc_tropical_wx79 (Wed Aug 30 2006 10:36 PM)
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WeatherNut
Weather Master
Reged: Wed
Posts: 412
Loc: Atlanta, GA 33.81N 84.34W
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Well...if its over Merritt Island currently thats just east of north from the 8pm advisory position
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Born into Cleo (64)...been stuck on em ever since
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danielw
Moderator
Reged: Wed
Posts: 3384
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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If I'm reading the Melbourne Wind Profiler correctly. It's not taking long for the above ground wind speeds to incease.
From 0127Z to 0215Z.
At 2000ft above ground level: Increase from 25kts to 35kts.
Melbourne NWS VAD Profiler
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WeatherNut
Weather Master
Reged: Wed
Posts: 412
Loc: Atlanta, GA 33.81N 84.34W
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Titusville has been reporting NW winds since 10pm (per website) wouldn't that put the center North and East of them?
EDIT: 10:25pm WNW
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Born into Cleo (64)...been stuck on em ever since
Edited by WeatherNut (Wed Aug 30 2006 10:36 PM)
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Mike
Weather Watcher
Reged: Fri
Posts: 40
Loc: Port St. John, Fla 28.47N 80.80W
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The center is still passing over . Our wind direction range from 20-332 degress. Wind speed in 1 minute averages is ~6 knots, and that is also the 10 minute peak average.
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edaguyinccbch
Unregistered
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Quote:
Titusville has been reporting NW winds since 10pm (per website) wouldn't that put the center North and East of them?
EDIT: 10:25pm WNW
11PM 28.7N 80.6W just off the coast of the cape, and yes, NE of Titusville. Florida says goodbye to Ernie
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Tony Cristaldi
NWS Meteorologist
Reged: Fri
Posts: 39
Loc: West Melbourne, Florida
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Quote:
Titusville has been reporting NW winds since 10pm (per website) wouldn't that put the center North and East of them?
EDIT: 10:25pm WNW
It would if it was a reliable wind direction. I think it was off by a little, however, since KTIX was due east at 0100 UTC (9PM). As of 02 UTC (10PM) the Cape Mesonet showed winds out of the N and NNE around that area. Winds on the southeast side of the tower network were from the south. You could clearly see the center was not quite out onto Merritt Island, Just NE of the city of Cocoa. As of 1030 PM it was out over the island and will just be moving offshore right around 11PM.
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danielw
Moderator
Reged: Wed
Posts: 3384
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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Looks like is above to get an eastward shove from the front/ trough passing throught Panama City Beach area.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/sloop-rgb.html
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/float1.html
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-wv.html
Edited by danielw (Wed Aug 30 2006 11:12 PM)
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nc_tropical_wx79
Weather Guru
Reged: Fri
Posts: 123
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would that shove take him farther away from the coast and could end up brushing the outer banks and not make landfall in SC or NC right?
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W.D. Duncan
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danielw
Moderator
Reged: Wed
Posts: 3384
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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The Melbourne VAD Profiler is now-0309Z, up to max wind of 38kts at 2000ft.
Dr Steve Lyons, at , just mentioned the 'possibility' of issuing a Special Statement to bring back to Tropical Storm strength during the night.
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danielw
Moderator
Reged: Wed
Posts: 3384
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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Quote:
would that shove take him farther away from the coast and could end up brushing the outer banks and not make landfall in SC or NC right?
Yes, that would be one of the possibilities. It depends on how much "push" the front has to it.
The dry air portion of the front (seen on the GMX loop) has pushed across SW MS in about 5 hours.
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nc_tropical_wx79
Weather Guru
Reged: Fri
Posts: 123
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is there a site or map I can see that tells me the strength of fronts like one that tells the strength of low pressure areas?
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W.D. Duncan
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danielw
Moderator
Reged: Wed
Posts: 3384
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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Gulf of Mexico Surface Map
SW North Atlantice Surface Map
Both of the above maps and many more maps can be found at this site:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb-atl.shtml
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Yikes
Verified CFHC User
Reged: Sat
Posts: 11
Loc: 31.95N 80.90W
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Charleston TV reporting contact from that is back to Tropical Storm strength and further strengthening expected.
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danielw
Moderator
Reged: Wed
Posts: 3384
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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For those that are currently north of in Ga, SC, NS and the Mid Atlantic States.
Please pay close attention to your Local NWS Ofice Bulletins, Watches and Warnings. Current forecasts are based on 's current status. Forecasts can and will change should regain Tropical Storm status.
The Weather Channel has just updated the advisory to bring back to Tropical Storm status~danielw
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