amonty
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Thu
Posts: 66
Loc: Clearwater, Fl
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Has anyone noticed the fact that after most weak storms cross florida they strenghten stronger then when they make landfall? I always thought this to be odd. I don't understand why being over land would make the cyclone more prepared for intensification.
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JOC
Unregistered
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Given the latest reports that show the pressure drop of 2mb in 3hrs and wind up 5 mph in the same time, could it reach cat 1 status before landfall? Reason for commenting on this is because there seems to be a shift, however so slight, to the east and according to the model for the last few runs are now taking the storm to the north of Wilmington in the Topsail Beach area. My estimate is if comes in between Georgetown & Myrtle Beach, probably a strong TS but if it stays out say an extra 3-5 hrs to go north of Wilmington perhaps a low end cat1. The problem is they have yet to move any warnings n of Cape Lookout and if this thing decides to deepen faster than anticipated with a slight eastward componet, people in eastern NC might get more than they are anticipating. I have lived in E NC for 40+ years and have seen many storms do crazy things in a very short period of time, like Alex 2 yrs ago. People along the NC coast really need to pay close attention until its final landfall later tonight. Any thoughts?
JOC
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zacros
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Thu
Posts: 57
Loc: Johns Island, SC
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The 8 AM update shows another increase in wind speed. You can also see from the past several advisories that the storm has been moving slightly to the right of north for the past several updates. This easterly movement increase in the lastest update. Looks like moved .3 degrees to the east and .4 to the north. Prior to that, the storm moved .6 north and .2 east. Therefore, the front to west of the storm seems to be pushing it ever so slightly to the east. However, it still appears that the forcast is valid. Folks in Wilmington better be gearing up. As the storms are beginning to make their way around the center.
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Beach
Weather Guru
Reged: Wed
Posts: 187
Loc: Cocoa Beach/Banana River
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Take a look at:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-wv.html
Is that and ULL brewing or a MLL?
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Reaper
Weather Watcher
Reged: Wed
Posts: 38
Loc: Lake Placid, Fla 27.34N 81.34W
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Post deleted by Reaper
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WeatherNut
Weather Master
Reged: Wed
Posts: 412
Loc: Atlanta, GA 33.81N 84.34W
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Radar loops are looking like it trying to close off the open NW side of the center. If that happens I think it will really deepen quickly
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Born into Cleo (64)...been stuck on em ever since
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Psyber
Weather Guru
Reged: Fri
Posts: 136
Loc: Ontario, Canada
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Sorry reaper, probably a better place for your post in "The Tropics Today" forum. only stuff here.
I'm not suprised that ernie has gone more east than expected...he seemed hellbent on getting back to the ocean after a quick little stay over florida. I can only surmise that the extra hot water/ground in that part of florida much have kept him in pretty good shape for his reorganization now that he's out to sea. Even when he was completely over land, you could see him pulling in moisture from the GOM/atlantic so he really hasn't gone through the instant dryout of what he would have if he had going through LA MS or AL.
I'd like to cheer for more east movement but I know the more he stays out over the water, the stronger he's going to get...SST's are certainly warm enough to strengthen him. My easterly prayer comes from not wanting to get his remnants that look to be coming towards the great lakes basin sometime this weekend while i'm camping. 
He has certainly gone through quite a strengthening faze and unless he starts encountering some stiff competition, we very well might be looking at a weak CAT1 hitting between myrtle beach and Wilmington.
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Leave it to Accuweather to take the accuracy out of weather.
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Thunderbird12
Meteorologist
Reged: Thu
Posts: 644
Loc: Oklahoma
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Based on the radar, it looks more like the NE part of the nascent eyewall that is open, rather than the NW. Regardless, I'm sure is getting nervous about not having any hurricane advisories up for . I wouldn't be surprised to see some hoisted up on the next advisory, even if they keep the intensity forecast slightly below hurricane strength.
This is one case where forecasting an intensity range (analogous to the "cone" for the forecast track) would be useful, rather than just a single number.
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rxbandit
Registered User
Reged: Thu
Posts: 1
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Being in Florence SC, 50 or so miles west of Myrtle Beach, do you think it is possible that could avoid much of the forecasted jog to the east and instead come ashore somewhere south of Myrtle Beach, say Georgetown? I know that if I end up in the center or east of the storm that winds will be much higher. Just want to know what to expect.
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Psyber
Weather Guru
Reged: Fri
Posts: 136
Loc: Ontario, Canada
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Quote:
Being in Florence SC, 50 or so miles west of Myrtle Beach, do you think it is possible that could avoid much of the forecasted jog to the east and instead come ashore somewhere south of Myrtle Beach, say Georgetown? I know that if I end up in the center or east of the storm that winds will be much higher. Just want to know what to expect.
You're in the cone so prepare for the worst and be happy if it isn't. That's best you can do. Very unstable storm which seems capable of doing anything.
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Leave it to Accuweather to take the accuracy out of weather.
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HCW
Storm Tracker
Reged: Fri
Posts: 287
Loc: Mobile,AL
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I expect a Hurricane Watch to be issued at 11am all the way to Cape Lookout. Shear hopefully holds this storm in check
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Over 4,000 members and now on a new server
http://www.hardcoreweather.com
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Thunderbird12
Meteorologist
Reged: Thu
Posts: 644
Loc: Oklahoma
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You hardly ever see the intensity listed at 55 mph, since by a quirk in the conversion scheme, 45 knots=50 mph and 50 knots=60 mph. I guess they have some wiggle room in the intermediate advisory, since that product only lists the intensity in mph. I assume the intensity will be "up" to 60 mph in the next advisory for this reason. I don't know if the next plane will be in there in time to give an update before the next advisory, which is due in 30 minutes.
The 12Z SHIPS brings up to minimal hurricane strength, if you interpolate between the 12 hr (when it hasn't made landfall yet) and 24 hr (after landfall) forecasts.
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Lee-Delray
Weather Master
Reged: Thu
Posts: 429
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(some off-topic material was removed)
Looks like a visit to NC/SC coast as a "healthy" TS. I don't think there's time for stronger development. I think though it will really be a big rain event in NC.
Edited by Ed Dunham (Thu Aug 31 2006 05:38 PM)
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Ginger
Registered User
Reged: Mon
Posts: 8
Loc: Gainesville FL
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Quote:
You hardly ever see the intensity listed at 55 mph, since by a quirk in the conversion scheme, 45 knots=50 mph and 50 knots=60 mph. I guess they have some wiggle room in the intermediate advisory, since that product only lists the intensity in mph. I assume the intensity will be "up" to 60 mph in the next advisory for this reason.
TWC just said it's now up to 60mph
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Florida Native
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WeatherNut
Weather Master
Reged: Wed
Posts: 412
Loc: Atlanta, GA 33.81N 84.34W
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pressure down to 994 and recon says slowly falling as per TPC discussion.
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Born into Cleo (64)...been stuck on em ever since
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Thunderbird12
Meteorologist
Reged: Thu
Posts: 644
Loc: Oklahoma
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AT 11 AM EDT...1500 UTC...A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM
SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA TO CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA. A
HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS.
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nc_tropical_wx79
Weather Guru
Reged: Fri
Posts: 123
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WIth going NNE and at a faster speed he would have to make landfall from Wilmington,NC and up toward the OuterBanks right isn't it too late for a SC southern NC landfall? Some say will make landfall tonight and Dr. Master's said this late afternoon/evening so which one is it?
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W.D. Duncan
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Thunderbird12
Meteorologist
Reged: Thu
Posts: 644
Loc: Oklahoma
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Ernesto is still headed in the general direction of Myrtle Beach. Latest recon finds the pressure still at 994 mb. Still looks like it is slowly getting better organized, but the NE quadrant of the storm is still pretty dry. There is an intense convective band near the center, but it is not having any luck wrapping around so far.
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Todd
Weather Watcher
Reged: Fri
Posts: 30
Loc: Havelock, NC(34.89n76.92w)
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Not busting on you TB, but all the sites I normally go to have acient RECON data, Vortex ans Sup Votex. Where are you pulling yours from?
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HanKFranK
User
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC 33.56N 81.82W
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ernesto is responding to the baroclinic environment. the pressure has fallen about 6 mb in 12 hrs reasonable to assume that between now and landfall it will drop another 4-5 mb... to the 989-990 range. that usually accompanies a minimal hurricane. latest radar shows more of an eyewall structure than earlier. there's a possibility that will stage a little bit more of a rally, but it could just as easily hold steady. the official taking it to 60 kt is sensible and right in the middle of the range of possibilities.
on the forecast track, the center looks to move inland near north myrtle beach, sc. that would put the worst weather in brunswick county from southport over to calabash. since yesterday the structure of has had the largest banding immediately west of the center, so horry county isn't going to get it easy, either. tropical storm force winds will probably extend inland to around maybe elizabethtown, and maybe spotty in other eastern locations in north carolina with exposures to the pamlico and albemarle sounds, or on the atlantic coast, getting such winds. there might also be some spotty reports in or off the mid-atlantic states with the increasing gradient near the coast.
ernesto will be ashore tonight, and probably by saturday. there is nothing imminent to take its place. there is an upper trough-induced surface boundary north of puerto rico that doesn't show any inclination to develop. the persistent low near 17/50, with its sporadic convection, doesn't look any better organized and has yet to do anything new (environment ahead will moisten up, but not for a couple more days... days it may not have). the wave near 33-34w is hung along an monsoon trough, and not standing out by itself very well. globals continue to forecast development in this area, but no longer single it out (another wave coming off now has their blessing). if nothing is active in the basin when is written off, i don't think it'll take long to get something. we're very close to the seasonal peak, and the eastpac continues active.
HF 1633z31august
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