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Archives >> 2006 News Talkbacks

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HanKFranK
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Loc: Graniteville, SC 33.56N 81.82W
Florence nearing Hurricane Status
      #73393 - Tue Sep 05 2006 05:49 PM

4 AM EDT 9 Sep Update
US Air Force Reserve Weather Reconnaisance has now departed from their first mission into Tropical Storm Florence. They relocated the center to the south of where satellite estimates had it placed. Maximum flight level wind speed on this mission was 61 kts, or 70.2 mph.
Still shy of Cat 1 Hurricane status. Tropical Storm force winds extend outward up to 345 nautical miles. Mainly in the NE Quadrant.
Wave just East-Southeast of Florence was designated 93L, by the Navy last night.
~danielw
0745Z AVN IR Enhancment



7AM 6 Sep Update
Florence is still maintaining itself as a large, but relatively weak Tropical Storm moving west northwest through the Atlantic.

Most likely the storm will recurve away from land, and I'll avoid trying to "wishcast" it westward any. We'll continue to watch it for surprises, though. Another wave in the far eastern Atlantic has a small chance to develop over the next few days as well.

- Mike C.

Original Update
We're very near the statistical peak of the hurricane season, and the Atlantic basin is acting in kind. Tropical storm Florence was designated this morning after two days of depression status. The storm is likely to slowly intensify while it consolidates and then rapidly intensify later this week as atmospheric conditions become more optimized. Most model guidance is recurving the system off the east coast to the west of Bermuda, and this solution looks to be the most likely path--however it has trended west some over the last couple of days, so the threat to the mid-Atlantic up to the Canadian Maritimes isn't completely nil. The strength of ridging in the northwestern Atlantic and the degree to which a first shortwave bypasses and a subsequent trough dig into the Eastern U.S. also have bearing on what Florence does. It is likely to be a significant hurricane by this weekend.

Behind Florence is another wave with a surface low. It is designated Invest 91L right now, the 22nd Invest of the year. Several global models show this feature developing and several show little change. It has limited convection right now, and only a broad circulation. The proximity to Florence may result in it being sheared in a couple of days, but right now the proximity doesn't seem to have any adverse affect on the disturbance. It will likely move west to west-northwest behind Florence through the week, under strong ridging in the central Atlantic.
Disturbed weather near Florida remains disorganized. Waves entering and passing through the eastern Caribbean lack organization as well. Some globals show the next wave coming off Africa developing some as well, but a strong trough off Northwest Africa may take it up, according to several models, if it were to develop early.

Chance for east central Atlantic wave (91L) to develop in the next 24-48 hours, about 5.5.
Code:

(forget it) 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 (sure thing)
[----------*---------]






Tropical Storm Florence

Animated Skeetobite Model Plot
Animated Model Plot
SFWMD Model Plot
Google Map Plot of System
More model runs on from Jonathan Vigh's page
Visible Satellite Floater
IR
Animated Floater with overlays
More Satellite Images of Florence

93L (Eastern Atlantic wave):
Animated Skeetobite Model Plot
Animated Model Plot
SFWMD Model Plot
More model runs on from Jonathan Vigh's page

Edited by danielw (Sat Sep 09 2006 05:20 AM)


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Lee-Delray
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Recurve [Re: HanKFranK]
      #73396 - Tue Sep 05 2006 06:38 PM

I've noticed the new GFDL is now recurving further east. Is it using the same coordinates that the NHC is using which was shifted south this AM or is it working on the old ones? Also, to curve that early doesn't that move the ridge crossing the US faster west?

Edited by Lee-Delray (Tue Sep 05 2006 06:39 PM)


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allan
Weather Master


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Re: Recurve [Re: Lee-Delray]
      #73397 - Tue Sep 05 2006 06:58 PM

Yeah i've noticed that to but like the NHC which I strongly agree that the global models are really overdoing it. Things should get more better tommorrow. It's something to watch. Dr. Lyons from TWC says that Bermuda and the whole east coast needs to be on guard so it is not yet official that the storm will recurve that fast. Clearly I doubt it. Probably a track like Edwaurd (1996) will occur. Not too accurate on that yet.

no need to quote another user's entire post when the same words are one inch above. very redundant. -HF

Edited by HanKFranK (Tue Sep 05 2006 07:12 PM)


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richisurfs
Weather Guru


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FNMOC [Re: allan]
      #73399 - Tue Sep 05 2006 07:46 PM

Check out this link:
http://surfinfo.surfline.com/html/fnmoc.html
the thing I really noticed was not Florence but the disturbance behind it on like day six!


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allan
Weather Master


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Re: FNMOC [Re: richisurfs]
      #73401 - Tue Sep 05 2006 07:53 PM

Looks like a new center is forming or has formed and a big blow up is going on. 50 mph. is my guess on the 11 p.m. advisory. Sorry bout that last error Hank. If it continues to strengthen like this then this will be able to either break the ridge or cut the trough like Isabel did in 2002. Created a stationary front over it and moved northwest. This could happen to but i'm not putting any bets on yet until it reaches just north of Puerto Rico. Heres that image of Florence which continues to strengthen a bit rapidly... Looks like the shear has weakened alot. Hurricane by tommorrow?? maybe.. just needs to be watched http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/sloop-rb.html


--------------------
Allan Reed - 18,9,5

Edited by allan (Tue Sep 05 2006 07:54 PM)


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hurricaneguy
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Re: FNMOC [Re: richisurfs]
      #73409 - Tue Sep 05 2006 08:01 PM

Quote:

Florence will make landfall in northern Florida and slide up to North Carolina; however; Gordon will be The Big One for 2006.




What makes you think that? Man look at the explosion of convection around Florence, I don't think it is over the center but it will be soon, this thing is ready for takeoff.

--------------------


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danielwAdministrator
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Re: FNMOC [Re: hurricaneguy]
      #73411 - Tue Sep 05 2006 08:11 PM

Quote:

Quote:

Florence will make landfall in northern Florida and slide up to North Carolina; however; Gordon will be The Big One for 2006.




What makes you think that? Man look at the explosion of convection around Florence, I don't think it is over the center but it will be soon, this thing is ready for takeoff.




I believe that the first part of this post should have been in the Forecast Lounge. However, it was posted here. Without any justification and I removed it from the thread.
The thought below appears to follow the posting lines with reasoning behind the comment. However short it might be.


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JOC
Unregistered




Re: FNMOC [Re: hurricaneguy]
      #73412 - Tue Sep 05 2006 08:12 PM

This whole pattern is begining to evolve similar to the aforementioned Eduard (96) or the 2003 Isabel storm. Although I believe that Isabel made it to Cat 5 before weakening somewhat, there has been no evidence that this system will ever reach that strength. My thought here is, that Eduard was a little earlier in the year and there had to be a weakness in the Bermuda High to let him sweep up the way he did and Isabel was about the same time of the year in 2003 when it come inland between Cape Lookout & Cape Hatteras, then turned poleward causing a lot of problems in Va. northward. Can anyone tell me if the pattern is setting up the same way now as it was in 2003 or if someone can provide a link to that type of info?

Thanks, JOC


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danielwAdministrator
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Re: FNMOC [Re: allan]
      #73416 - Tue Sep 05 2006 08:39 PM

Quote:

Looks like a new center is forming or has formed and a big blow up is going on... http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/sloop-wv.html





With the LLC displaced nearly 2.5 degrees to the ENE. The shear will have to relax quite a bit before we should see any definite improvement in the satellite signature and wind field/ speed.
In the mean time a digging trough to the NW of FLorence is further complicating the forecast.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/wv-l.jpg

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/sloop-wv.html


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Lee-Delray
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Re: FNMOC [Re: danielw]
      #73417 - Tue Sep 05 2006 08:42 PM

Wow! It looks like it really jumped ENE. Does that move it closer to the trough, which will cause more sheer?

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danielwAdministrator
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Re: FNMOC [Re: danielw]
      #73418 - Tue Sep 05 2006 08:45 PM

Repost of Ryan's post that was deleted.

If Florence follows NHC track, it looks as if it may make a landfall somewhere. What again are the different troughs and such in the atlantic helping to decide where Florence goes? People are saying this COULD be the big NE/Mid-Atlantic storm? Someone give me a reason to believe otherwise.


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Steve H1
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Re: FNMOC [Re: danielw]
      #73420 - Tue Sep 05 2006 09:10 PM

No. But we'll need visible imagery to confirm a real LLC. One thing is for certain, Florence is going to be quite large when she winds up......quite large. I remember Gloria's size when she crossed the Atlantic and ran up the coast. We were getting sustained winds of 40mph on Long Island when the center was off South Carolina. The entire east coast needs to watch her this weekend, as the models diverge quite a bit and the overall pattern is quite uncertain. I don't buy the GFDL at all at 18Z. Cheers!!

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Hugh
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Re: FNMOC [Re: Steve H1]
      #73421 - Tue Sep 05 2006 09:22 PM

If my recollection of recent history is correct, Florence could be big trouble for any land in its path in the future. While it's obviously not all that well organized yet, it's got to be one of the biggest storms I've ever seen on satellite... and it looks like it's growing, too. The large size will likely prevent it from becoming extremely powerful quickly, but then again, I look at it, and I think about Wilma.

--------------------
Hugh

Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)


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Ed in Va
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Re: FNMOC [Re: Hugh]
      #73422 - Tue Sep 05 2006 09:56 PM

Climatology is certainly against any track going near the EC. Only two storms have ever even made it even west of Bermuda.

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200606_climo.html#a_topad

--------------------
Survived Carol and Edna '54 in Maine. Guess this kind of dates me!

Edited by Ed in Va (Tue Sep 05 2006 09:59 PM)


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HanKFranK
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analogs [Re: Hugh]
      #73423 - Tue Sep 05 2006 09:56 PM

there's a mix in the globals right now as far as recurvature types. all are offshore, some are quicker than others. i wouldn't throw isabel in the list right now, but edouard from 1996 does resemble some. isabel was abnormal in that a blocking ridge drove it nnw from coastal nc to ontario before it rounded it and turned ne. none of the globals are showing a block that looks anything like that. there is some evidence that the high that drops into eastern canada during the recurvature period could block florence just like one blocked Ernesto. none are showing anything as dramatic.. just a very much slowed track and a long northward fetch towards the canadian maritimes. what may be messed up is the ridge breaking as quickly to let florence stop its westward movement (shortwave in front may not have enough to do it), and the resilience of the ridging in the western atlantic and tendency for more troughing in the eastern lakes into the mid-south next weekend and earlynext week may also be underrated. that's direction the models are generally trending, but out in the long-term they haven't started to gel around any one solution.
the NHC path looks apt enough for now and seems to be considering the evolving factors.
91L is already getting enough easterly shear to stunt its development, and the only thing that will help it is getting a little further along to the north. that sort of movement increases it's chances to recurve in florence's wake. the only model showing it doing much is the NOGAPS, and that one is maybe a tad out there (fast florence keeps clear), but not impossible. i may have overrated it a tad when i put it's development chances around 5.5/10.
HF 0157z06september


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darseys
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Re: FNMOC [Re: Hugh]
      #73424 - Tue Sep 05 2006 10:00 PM

This is a post from another forum. What do you all think about it? I'm beginning to believe that the eastern CONUS shortwave-like trough may not entirely pick up Florence. As the ULL may be keeping the LLC of Florence further south and since the ULL is moving slowly, it may be slowing the forward speed and consolidation/organization of Florence, as evidenced somewhat on this infra-red imagery. http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/avn-l.jpg

At the same time, the Eastern Seaboard shortwave trough is already nearing the Mid-Atlantic and northeastern United States, and is about to exit into the deep southeastern U.S., where the southern half of the trough may cut off in Georgia and the southern Carolinas. All this is evidenced here. http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/nwatl/wv-l.jpg The southern portion of the trough, therefore, may not be sufficient to entirely pick up Florence. At the same time, the northern half of the trough may already be getting ready to gradually pull out, with the Canadian ridging building in in earnest.

It is just another piece of the puzzle that may need to be considered.

Edited by Ed Dunham (Tue Sep 05 2006 10:31 PM)


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Clark
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Re: FNMOC [Re: Lee-Delray]
      #73427 - Tue Sep 05 2006 10:12 PM

The primary LLC is still located well to the WSW of the strongest convection. There is a significant flare up of convection on the eastern side of the storm, where there is greater moisture/moisture fetch and diffluent (spreading apart) winds at upper levels. However, the LLC has yet to reform over there underneath the convection and what is likely to be a mid-level low.

Recall that the overall circulation envelope of Florence is quite large, however, the center of which is likely somewhere between the two entities. Slowly but surely, the environment is becoming more favorable and Florence is getting better organized. It's still getting sheared some and there is some dry air in the environment (partially due to a dust layer in the vicinity), but such negative effects aren't as significant as they were earlier today or yesterday.

--------------------
Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)


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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser


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Re: FNMOC [Re: darseys]
      #73431 - Tue Sep 05 2006 10:42 PM

The more south the LLC relocates (and it keeps looking like it's going to get relocated further and further WSW of the previous location), the further west the long-range track will shift, I think. I'm not sold on any long-range forecast yet. Climatology tells me Florence will recurve at some point before reaching the coast, but past performance is not indicative of future results, as they say.

All in all, I think Bermuda could be the biggest player.

--------------------
Hugh

Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)


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Genesis
Weather Guru


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Re: FNMOC [Re: Hugh]
      #73433 - Tue Sep 05 2006 11:17 PM

Ditto on those thoughts Hugh.

I do think the bigtime fracture in the ridging that is being shown in the globals is overdone. Looking at the WV loop it looks to me like we could see a cut-off situation in the SE in another couple of days leaving the ridge more-or-less intact. If that happens and then you get amplification as the trough lifts out over the maritimes, the door would be open for Florence to go significantly further west.

Recurve it almost certainly will, but to what extent is the question - and WHEN. The floater shows a clear COC (but it may not be THE COC!) to the WSW of the big blowup in convection. The fight will be over whether the center relocates under the convection, or whether the convection wraps around the apparent COC. If the latter, AND we get a cut-off rather than a fracture of the ridging, then the door is open for Florence to get awfully close to the east coast from roughly NC northward.

I don't buy any of the long-term prognostications yet. The WV imagery is quite complex at the moment and there's a LOT in play here. I suspect we won't have any kind of real handle on this thing - in terms of whether its a fish storm or trouble for someone - until sometime around the weekend.

This much is certain - its a damn big system, and if it maintains its size and windfield it won't have to get you directly to hurt. Anyone within 200nm of the nasty side (e.g. N and E) when thsi thing goes full-bloom is quite likely to be unhappy with what shows up. Look at Ernesto - it was progged to be "no big deal" up the NE and yet I've seen plenty of pictures of sunk boats and flooded property! That one was so badly under-called in terms of local expected impacts in the Chesapeke area its not funny - a lot of people got badly hurt, especially in the marine interest area.

--------------------
Do you dive? http://www.scubaforum.org
Invest? Come talk on the Tickerforum


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Ryan
Storm Tracker


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The 11 is out. [Re: Hugh]
      #73434 - Tue Sep 05 2006 11:24 PM

000
WTNT31 KNHC 060237
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062006
1100 PM AST TUE SEP 05 2006

...FLORENCE EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN...

AT 1100 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 49.5 WEST OR ABOUT 895
MILES...1440 KM...EAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS.

FLORENCE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR
...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 145 MILES...230
KM...MAINLY NORTHEAST FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 1100 PM AST POSITION...17.7 N...49.5 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE National Hurricane Center AT
500 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN/PASCH



The NHC still isnt showing a curve out to sea, i do believe now it is 50/50 chance it hits land or goes out to the fish. I agree, Bermuda could be in danger, but so could the U.S. GFDL is showing a hurricane by thursday, Accuweather by friday, Skeetobite by thursday, wunderground by thursday. I think it's safe to say by the close of the weekend we will have a hurricane, granted all the forecasts are right.

Historical Map at this link:
[url] http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200606_climo.html#a_topad [/url]
shows no storm even doing what theyre saying is possible..does that make it impossible?

Also, could someone get me a longer range accurate projected path for Florence or maybe the link?

--------------------
2006 Atlantic Season Summary:
Bad, But Not AS Bad.

Life's a Storm, Watch Your Back


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typhoon_tip
Meteorologist


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Re: The 11 is out. [Re: Ryan]
      #73436 - Wed Sep 06 2006 12:32 AM

Quote:

000


Historical Map at this link:
[url] http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200606_climo.html#a_topad [/url]
shows no storm even doing what theyre saying is possible..does that make it impossible?






Yes it is possible.. It is possible because climo is not a prediction/forecast. Climate is a total divided by n values in the simplest terms and those can include well behaved AND anomalous situations..

Edited by typhoon_tip (Wed Sep 06 2006 12:33 AM)


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hurricaneguy
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Re: The 11 is out. [Re: typhoon_tip]
      #73437 - Wed Sep 06 2006 02:34 AM

The new run of the GFS has a break in the ridge in 5 days but has the ridge coming back together in 6 days and keeping Florence on a western run.
Hmmmmmmmm.....


--------------------


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Ryan
Storm Tracker


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Re: The 11 is out. [Re: typhoon_tip]
      #73438 - Wed Sep 06 2006 02:36 AM

ok so typhoon_tip what do you think will the trough move away allowing florence to landfall or will is stick around cause the recurving sooner not affecting the coast?

--------------------
2006 Atlantic Season Summary:
Bad, But Not AS Bad.

Life's a Storm, Watch Your Back


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Sarg
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Re: The 11 is out. [Re: hurricaneguy]
      #73439 - Wed Sep 06 2006 03:04 AM

So if the above scenario were to happen with the more westerly track where would that put the storm at landfall? Also do you have a link to the GFS run?

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cieldumort
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Re: The 11 is out. [Re: hurricaneguy]
      #73440 - Wed Sep 06 2006 03:39 AM

I can marginally buy into that GFS run - a more westward track of Florence, in general. But, there are plenty of things so very much unknown with Florence, herself.

Let me state some observations (of which I'm sure most if not all have been stated before, but which I will either say for the first time, or simply agree with them if already mentioned)

1) Florence has an awful lot of dry air mixed inside - which will be making for painfully slow development until this air can either be washed out or worked around in such a way that a new coc forms where dry air is far less prevalent (such as NNE)

2) Florence has had a good deal of southwesterly shear to contend with, which has and will be contributing to her initially slooow development. As such, between 1 & 2, Florence may not become a significant hurricane until *potentially* much closer to land. Also - by default - without any future eyewall replacement cycle until possibly after at least one land impact (such as Bermuda). Additionally, considering 1 & 2, the LLC may as of yet be nowhere close to where it finally ends up, creating a massive correction in future track and intensity.

3) Flo is a *large* cyclone. As such, one can probably expect an impressive ability to withstand and fight off shear, among other potential would-be killers. Thus, Flo may readily outlast some future calls of weakening.

4) 91L to Flo's east has virtually been a TD for well over a day now, itself. It is conceivably draining some from Flo's potential, and this may continue. Should both develop somewhat uniformly and impressively, a Fujiwhara effect is not out of the question, either. This also could very easily dramatically alter the future path of *possibly* both systems (keeping in mind we are still as of now only at the one: Flo).

I suppose where I am going with all of this is to highlight the need to keep common sense when considering even 24 hours with a system such as this one, and this, not even taking into consideration the greater synoptic environment - both current, and forecast, which is also not at all written in stone, and remains up in the air - pun intended!

I am personally placing precious little faith in both intensity and track forecasts out past 24 hours with Flo.


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Lee-Delray
Weather Master


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Re: Florence slowly strengthening in the Atlantic [Re: HanKFranK]
      #73442 - Wed Sep 06 2006 09:36 AM

The models seem to be in excellent agreement about the track for the next 5 days, taking Florence WNW, NW then somewhat more NNW. To my layman's eye, I don't see agreement on a recurvature out to sea yet.

If I read it right, we could be looking at a Cat 3?


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Steve H1
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Re: The 11 is out. [Re: cieldumort]
      #73443 - Wed Sep 06 2006 09:42 AM

To further embellish the observations made in the previous post, the center that is now visible in this mornings satellite pix is to the south of the 5 am advisory and is basically stationary. This may add confusion to the future track of Florence, specifically the time-critical synoptic pattern evolving around her. 91L is still not that impressive, but could move NW around Flo and this should further complicate forecasting woes. The good news is that all of this is occurring out over the open waters of the Atlantic and, given enough time, these usually get caught up in the westerlies.......but that is dependent on the changing pattern. Pretty intriguing given the host of variables here. It'll be interesting to see how the models handle the setup during the next few days. Let's see what today brings. Cheers!!

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Psyber
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Re: The 11 is out. [Re: Steve H1]
      #73444 - Wed Sep 06 2006 10:30 AM

No intermediate advisories yet I guess.

It's amazing the size of Florence today...I have to say that she's definately gone more west than anyone thought 3 days ago and has definately brought the north eastern seaboard into play. No land to dry her out, If that shear dies off today like forcasted, she's going to spin up.

there are no intermediate advisories unless watches and warnings are up. -HF

Edited by HanKFranK (Wed Sep 06 2006 01:23 PM)


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typhoon_tip
Meteorologist


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Re: The 11 is out. [Re: Sarg]
      #73445 - Wed Sep 06 2006 10:41 AM

"ok so typhoon_tip what do you think will the trough move away allowing florence to landfall or will is stick around cause the recurving sooner not affecting the coast? "

I believe you ought to go with the model consensus on recurvature, but not absolutely along their tracks. ...Again, the issue is and has been where exactly that will happen.

But, the model consensus does take it off shore pretty harmlessly.

Now, this "may" be correctable for a few synoptic reasons already addressed...

To name a couple, the strength of WAR (West Atlnatic Ridge) is not entirely certain. That feature is a primary steering inducer during the day 2-4 range. Beyond that, there is model-progged persistence of a weakness in the heights of the W Atlantic sufficient to induce a concerted polarward motion. The trick with that is, WAR has been prematurely eroded/decayed as a repeated bias in the models. We don't want to go too much deeper into speculation here on the main thread, but I will say that "IF" there is a correction to be made to atone for such a bias here, it would have to be that the ridge would hold longer and force a longer duration of westerly motion. That simple philosophy is why I am a little apprehensive in going with the model mean whole-heartedly.

TPC at 5am did not seem to bite on this, however...or at least, not as much. They intoned a right shift with their track guidance and from what I read, they left out this above train of reasoning altogether. Not sure I agree with them on that quite frankly. I also do not believe their 5am fix on initial motion is very good either... In the last 4 to 5 hours I cannot confirm a heading of 300 degrees at 11kts. In fact, Flo' appears nearly stationary at this time...

But, the 11am is due out any moment so it will be interesting what they say...

Bottom line: You ask me what I think - I think that if a ridge does establish its self there will wind up being some issues about timing the westerlies over top (latitude) of that ridge, for determination of what - if anything - there is about the flow that can cause a weakness sufficient to move Flo' screaming N near Bermuda so hastily. This "might" require observing future model runs begin to tweak their tracks W... Will that be enough to threaten the EC.. ?? Gosh, I really don't know.

John.

Edited by typhoon_tip (Wed Sep 06 2006 10:42 AM)


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Ed in Va
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Re: The 11 is out. [Re: typhoon_tip]
      #73446 - Wed Sep 06 2006 10:47 AM

Big change in 5-day track...now due north:

http://weather.sun-sentinel.com/tropical/tracking/at200606_5day.html

--------------------
Survived Carol and Edna '54 in Maine. Guess this kind of dates me!


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Thunderbird12
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Re: The 11 is out. [Re: Ed in Va]
      #73447 - Wed Sep 06 2006 10:55 AM

I'm not sure if I would say that is a "big" change... the models have consistently been calling for that turn and now the forecast timing of the turn is finally within the 5-day NHC forecast window. If the pattern forecast by the models verifies, then Florence should only be a possible threat to Bermuda, but there is still plenty of uncertainty that far out in advance.

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typhoon_tip
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Re: The 11 is out. [Re: Ed in Va]
      #73448 - Wed Sep 06 2006 11:00 AM

It doesn't surprise me with the persistence of the models to recurve at least excuse to do so!

But, I still believe the more exact amplitude of the W Atl ridge and its eventual effects on forcing a steering level have yet to be ascertained.. That will be important.. The guidances...they are paradigms not necessarily to be taken as holy - but I'm sure you are aware of that...

At least in once instance (the issues surrounding the ridge...) we can see why...

I will say this much, if the W Alt ridge desolves in convenient order as the models are suggesting, this will be the first time they have succeeded in doing so in recent months - which would be a tremendous stroke of luck for any storm weary denizens of the EC.


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stormtiger
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Re: I agree 100% [Re: typhoon_tip]
      #73449 - Wed Sep 06 2006 11:18 AM

The models have had a very tough time in handling the initialization, the tracks and the intensity of storms this season especially early in their births.

Florence fits the same mold. Though large, the center is far from the main center of convection. Again a ULL nearby is playing a major role. Again the storm is slow in organizing. I see a trend here.

Early on I just don't see the models doing that good of a job, yet.

Edited by stormtiger (Wed Sep 06 2006 12:15 PM)


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Solak
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Re: I agree 100% [Re: stormtiger]
      #73450 - Wed Sep 06 2006 11:55 AM

It appears to me using the Animated Floater that there are two identifiable centers of rotation still. One near the most recent coordinates, and one about 2 degees S and maybe 1 degree east of the plotted location.

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typhoon_tip
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Re: I agree 100% [Re: Solak]
      #73452 - Wed Sep 06 2006 12:23 PM

...If this makes any sense for you...
It appears to me the "general" circulation is moving W almost due, while the smaller internal core is doing loopty-loops inside.. In fact, if you focused on the very center, you may detect a small closed eddy in there and you'd be correct to assume that is the preceived/official center. That eddy just gyrated almost due N in the last 1.5 hours, but since the generalized motion still appears more W when stepping back and letting your eyes go with the drift, my belief is this is just more wobbling.

Not uncommon actually for such broad circulations to have a couple of localized vorticity maxima rotating around inside...

Edited by typhoon_tip (Wed Sep 06 2006 12:24 PM)


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HanKFranK
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weight of evidence [Re: Solak]
      #73454 - Wed Sep 06 2006 01:00 PM

almost all the guidance takes the storm up west of bermuda just a tad, then recurves it sharply. if you take the solutions of recent days at face value, it adds up to a major hurricane side-swiping bermuda in the mon-tue timeframe, then recurving northeast after a northward jaunt between 65-70w. the mechanism that would shift the track left enough to make it a threat to the northeast would have to be the amplification coming down from canada next weekend splitting, with some of the momentum jetting sharply eastward and just tapping the heights off the canadian maritimes down for a moment and allowing them to rebuild in the path of the storm... and most importantly the energy that tails back on the continent linking with upper weaknesses back in the central u.s. the deeper troughing would allow heights to rise off the east coast and keep the ridging more intact... and also create a more amplified pattern to draw the storm up a little further to the northwest.
there has been a general trend towards these features being more pronounced in some of the global model runs, but for right now the heaviest amount of support is close to the NHC track past bermuda, and implicitly out to sea east of the canadian maritimes.
91L has become somewhat disorganized, with a very elongated se-nw surface center... and is close enough to trudgy florence that it is suffering some. still, most of the global models maintain it and show weak development as it tracks along behind the stronger storm. the NOGAPS model is still it's strongest proponent. the canadian suggests that it won't get drawn up, but rather left after florence leaves to the north... which is interesting as well.
that disturbed weather that persisted near florida has held together as it now tracks northeast ahead of a frontal trough along the east coast. it will likely become associated with the front before getting a chance to really develop, but appears to be becoming better organized. if it somehow remains independent of the front, maybe it will turn into something, but probably not.
hunch that the wave crossing the caribbean will act up some in the western caribbean. i'm not sure if it will have the fortitude to do anything, but some of the globals are spotting a small disturbance in the area. most likely it will all just crash into central america and amount to nothing.
HF 1659z06september


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Beach
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Re: weight of evidence [Re: HanKFranK]
      #73455 - Wed Sep 06 2006 01:35 PM

Hey Guys,

I was looking a little closer to home.
If you check out the Sat: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-wv.html

There seems to be a good amount of thunderstorm activity
around 17N 70W ( Santo Damingo)
So I went and looked around at the bouys in the area.
Found this one reporting West Winds (last 3 Hours)
http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/TJMZ.html

Does this mean that this area of Thunderstorms has circulation with it?


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scottsvb
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Re: weight of evidence [Re: Beach]
      #73456 - Wed Sep 06 2006 01:43 PM

Florence never had a chance to get past 65-70W....strong trough off the east coast.....said and done.
She will get better organized...probably a cat 3.... but I feel Berumda is inline with something...maybe not a direct hit..but TS winds... the pattern has been set for a week and will continue for another 2... Only chance of a landfall over the next 2 weeks will be something forming in the western carribean or gulf. Florence has been a obvious forecast for 5 days.


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NewWatcher
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Re: weight of evidence [Re: scottsvb]
      #73457 - Wed Sep 06 2006 01:47 PM

Hey Scott,
What do you think about the tropical wave down in the eastern carib. south of the D.R.?

--------------------
Pam in Volusia County

According to Colleen A ... "I AM A HURRICANE FREAK"
2007 Predictions 16/9/6


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scottsvb
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Re: weight of evidence [Re: NewWatcher]
      #73459 - Wed Sep 06 2006 01:49 PM

I dont like seeing convection fire from a tropical wave during the daytime hours....I like to see convection buildup at night with a warm core system. Anyways the winds are pretty much due E...!!Pretty much its just a wave...will probably max out in next hour or 2 then the clouds will warm later this evening.....I give it a 1/10 chance... There should be alot of Atlantic activity...but nothing will reach the U.S. unless something forms in the Carribean or Gulf.....

Edited by scottsvb (Wed Sep 06 2006 01:51 PM)


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Beach
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Re: weight of evidence [Re: scottsvb]
      #73461 - Wed Sep 06 2006 02:47 PM

Doesn't this count? From the West for 4 hours now.
http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/TJMZ.html

2 PM (18) Sep 06 87 (31) 77 (25) 29.9 (1012) NW 3 thunder
1 PM (17) Sep 06 91 (33) 77 (25) 29.92 (1013) NW 12
Noon (16) Sep 06 91 (33) 73 (23) 29.93 (1013) W 5
11 AM (15) Sep 06 89 (32) 75 (24) 29.92 (1013) NW 8


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doug
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Re: weight of evidence [Re: HanKFranK]
      #73462 - Wed Sep 06 2006 03:04 PM

Wanted to comment on HF's re: the better organization to the T Storms exiting Florida:
there was one period yesterday when the radar returns looked exactly as they did a week earlier when Ernesto was making its way Northward. There seemed to be a little vortex spinning northward just to the west of Lake Okeechobee with all the convection covering the east side of the state. I noted today the little vortex had in fact made it out into the ATL.
Pressures remained high here though...
Florence is still horribly sheared...the exposed area which seems to be the "center" is drifting westward.
Is this a result of interaction with 91L, which could cause a bit of a left turn?
I don't see visual evidence the ULL NW of Flo is diminishing, but the NHC says it will. Until then not much will change.

--------------------
doug


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cieldumort
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Re: weight of evidence [Re: doug]
      #73466 - Wed Sep 06 2006 03:43 PM

As of 2:45PM AST the primary LLC being used by NHC has shifted north and found a nice cozy home under some of the deepest convection. Will be very interesting to see if this helps Flo get her act together tonight - or, not. You can watch it do this much easier with the aid of the RGB loop. This is time-sensitive, of course.

As HF wrote earlier, 91L is looking more sickly today. While there is some ongoing model support for it to become an officiated TC at some point this week, it would certainly appear that Six is eating it's lunch today, and this even before 91 gets to enjoy some potentially increasing shear up ahead.

Complex off of Florida does indeed have decent low-level inflow and convergence today, with even a hint of mid-level rotation and some reflection at the surface. Obs bear this out. However, I speculate that it's time over the stream may be limited, as the incipient fropa is at hand, provided it does not stall out.


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HanKFranK
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Re: weight of evidence [Re: doug]
      #73468 - Wed Sep 06 2006 03:51 PM

almost all the 12Z runs came west... consensus track is further northward before recurvature into or near nova scotia. trend the last few days has been to keep nudging the track further west in increments. if those northeastward recurvature tracks start disappearing from future model runs, i'd get a little more worried up in the northeast and southeastern canada. more recent runs continue to show stronger ridging and more blocking in the northwest atlantic, while the troughing in the east is shown as more energetic and amplified. if the hurricane were to lift straight up to 45n along a meridian, four or five degrees further west would spell a lot of trouble.
still an unlikely scenario, but not the sort of thing i'd ignore.
92L was labelled east of georgia this afternoon. it's somewhat frontally associated and probably not closed. the development mechanism here is all baroclinic, but if it closes off and generates gales, it definitely has a hybrid warm core look. also be interesting to see if it can deepen much. that thing whipping out energetically could speed and flatten the shortwaves supposed to cut into the ridge ahead of florence, and stagger its recurvature.
HF 1951z06september


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JOC
Unregistered




Re: weight of evidence [Re: HanKFranK]
      #73471 - Wed Sep 06 2006 04:26 PM

I here of a lot of talk about there is an outside chance of effecting the NE US or SE Canada. Can we here in the Carolinas and Va. give the all clear sign as of yet?

JOC


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rmbjoe1954
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Re: weight of evidence [Re: Unregistered User]
      #73473 - Wed Sep 06 2006 04:34 PM

Florence's projected path takes it away from the Carolinas/Va. However, not until the cone of uncertainty really shows Florence trending away from the mainland will it be for sure. I would say wait at least 24/36 hours of model runs for a statistical certainty of as close to an 'all-clear' as you can get.

--------------------
________2014 Forecast: 10/4/1________

There is little chance that meteorologists can solve the mysteries of weather until they gain an understanding of the mutual attraction of rain and weekends. ~Arnot Sheppard


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Ed DunhamAdministrator
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Re: weight of evidence [Re: scottsvb]
      #73474 - Wed Sep 06 2006 04:47 PM

"Florence never had a chance to get past 65-70W....strong trough off the east coast.....said and done."

Too many flies in the Atlantic ointment for such a definitive statement at this time. Of course it is the most probable track, but not the only possible one. As an example, yesterday morning the models really had no concept of Invest 92L - but this afternoon it is there.

Florence has been drifting north or north northwest all day today toward an area of stronger convection and at 06/18Z was located near 18.8N 50.3W. The core is still poorly organized so additional center relocations are certainly possible. Should Invest 92L strengthen into something tropical, or subtropical, or even extratropical, it could strengthen the ridge long before Florence ever gets to the trough - and change the forecast track.

All this means is that it is still premature to state with certainty at this time that Florence will be a 'fish spinner'...and...it is also a bit foolish to state at this time with certainty that Florence is destined to hit somebody. We are still in a 'watch' mode, waiting to see how the whole basin evolves over the next couple of days - and how Florence responds to that evolution.

For the time being, such absolute statements - for either future track - are better suited for the Forecast Lounge.
Cheers,
ED


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cieldumort
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Re: weight of evidence [Re: HanKFranK]
      #73475 - Wed Sep 06 2006 04:48 PM

Speaking of people asking for the "all clear" on a system like Flo, subject to so many variables, many of which are still unknown, the most sound advice should be to *never* write off an area even remotely in the realm of possibilities, IMHO.


I was just in the process of blowing up some images of 92L before it got labeled. Frankly, 92L looks something close to great at this hour, but there seems to be little in the way of pressure drops and probably only a limited time left over the warmest stream waters. Still, given it's fantastic appearance at this hour, I have to give it 33% odds of subtropical/tropical cyclone status within 24 hours.


Edited to paste text from NHC:
"A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 120 MILES OFF THE COAST
OF THE CAROLINAS IS MOVING QUICKLY NORTHEASTWARD. THIS SYSTEM HAS
SOME POTENTIAL FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT BEFORE IT INTERACTS
WITH A NEARBY FRONTAL ZONE IN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AN AIR FORCE
RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS EN ROUTE TO INVESTIGATE THE AREA
THIS EVENING."


Edited by cieldumort (Wed Sep 06 2006 05:31 PM)


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Genesis
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Re: weight of evidence [Re: rmbjoe1954]
      #73477 - Wed Sep 06 2006 04:50 PM

I don't think you can sound an "all clear" until we have a clear break in the ridge and Flo has moved into it, and is far enough out to sea and weakening sufficiently that a rebuilding of the heights would not push it materially westward.

This is unlikely to be known until the weekend.

I am not biting at the GFS solution, but I do see in the WV imagery how it can come about. I rate this as low probability, but on the other hand, if it happens it will be very bad for someone on the eastern seaboard, likely northward of NC.

I would not consider this "likely" by any means but to sound the "all clear" is very premature. Flo is a very large storm and is prognosticated to get even bigger. The larger they are the further away they can be and still spell trouble.

Keep your eyes open - somewhere around Saturday we should have a decent idea of what's up in terms of the ridge either being amplified or broken down. That'll still give you enough time if things look "not good" to do something about it.

--------------------
Do you dive? http://www.scubaforum.org
Invest? Come talk on the Tickerforum


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recmod
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Re: weight of evidence [Re: Genesis]
      #73478 - Wed Sep 06 2006 05:38 PM

Is it just me, or does anyone else find it annoying when people use cute nicknames for these tropical systems...like Ernie, or Flo?? I remember back in 2004 when people started calling Charley "Chucky", the mods broke in and put a stop to it. Maybe I am just being picky, but I think we should call the storms by their given name and leave the creativity in the forecast forum.

--Lou


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Steve H1
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Re: weight of evidence [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #73479 - Wed Sep 06 2006 06:32 PM

Excellent post Ed. The fact that 92L has come into play is another variable that could cause a void that the ridge may fill. Florence could stall for days out there before making her move.

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Beaumont, TX
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Re: weight of evidence [Re: Steve H1]
      #73480 - Wed Sep 06 2006 06:55 PM

The New England hurricane of 1938 was about 500 miles wide. And we know what damage it did. It was supposed to curve out to sea also.
So, while the odds are that Florence will curve we really won't know that for sure for a few days and people should just keep a watch.


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typhoon_tip
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Re: weight of evidence [Re: Beaumont, TX]
      #73482 - Wed Sep 06 2006 07:20 PM

Well hold on a minute here... Let's be fair...
Saying a system "was supposed to curve out to sea and it didn't" in 1938 is a whooooooole different ball of wax than making that error in this day and age...

They only had about 1/4 or today's theoretical understanding; no sat, rad, models... All they had were very sparse buoys and ship reports..

I think they had the right to screw up their forecast relative to today... Besides, that is why we have brains...because, we have been hammering all along that yes...the models depict this seaward but 'here is how it may fail to do that'... There are a myriad of ways still at this time range.

Edited by typhoon_tip (Wed Sep 06 2006 07:22 PM)


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allan
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Re: weight of evidence [Re: Beaumont, TX]
      #73484 - Wed Sep 06 2006 09:14 PM

Most models have shifted westward. I think they will be able to see 92L by the next run but could there be a big change? The new BAMM model doesnt show a recurvature anymore and heads about to the Carolinas in a week or so. Pretty interesting. What could be Gordon by tommorrow, could take over the trough and pull it northward and Florence could just be moving to the south. Not saying its going to happen but it could. Everyone on the east coast should stay on alert with this storm. Even Florida but I dont believe it will pose much of a threat but some good waves. This turn north may not occur if the trough lifts 92L up. Something to watch. Amazing how one of the models drastically changed course.. we'll have to see what happens with the rest of the models in the nest few runs.

--------------------
Allan Reed - 18,9,5


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West FL Jess
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Re: weight of evidence [Re: allan]
      #73485 - Wed Sep 06 2006 09:25 PM

is 91L dead? some models are still picking up on it but it looks like some are not...

--------------------
~jess~



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Ed in Va
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Re: weight of evidence [Re: allan]
      #73486 - Wed Sep 06 2006 09:26 PM

Where are you getting the model info...I haven't seen the BAMM shift.

--------------------
Survived Carol and Edna '54 in Maine. Guess this kind of dates me!


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Storm Cooper
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Re: weight of evidence [Re: allan]
      #73487 - Wed Sep 06 2006 09:27 PM

I would ask what hour runs you are looking at and re check the BAMM run...18Z as of now is the latest I know of...



--------------------
Hurricane Season 2012 11/5/2


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allan
Weather Master


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Re: weight of evidence [Re: Ed in Va]
      #73488 - Wed Sep 06 2006 09:36 PM

Quote:

Where are you getting the model info...I haven't seen the BAMM shift.



Oh sorry... Its the BAMS model not BAMM... heres the link.. The red line.. doesnt seem to turn
http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/guidance/atlantic/early2.png

--------------------
Allan Reed - 18,9,5


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h2ocean
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Re: weight of evidence [Re: Storm Cooper]
      #73489 - Wed Sep 06 2006 09:47 PM

Here are the 0z model runs...

http://www.esl.lsu.edu/quicklinks/hurricanes/2006/six/images/Storm-06-Spaghetti.gif

--------------------
Merritt Island, FL Home Weather Station


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Beaumont, TX
Storm Tracker


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Re: weight of evidence [Re: typhoon_tip]
      #73490 - Wed Sep 06 2006 09:55 PM

Oops! Sorry. My point was that there is some error in a five day forecast and conditions change daily and these storms
can surprise us. Yes, Florence should recurve but until she does we should keep an eye on her. I wasn't comparing the forecasting of the
1930's to the present. Of course, the methods used today are so much more advanced.
Actually, there was one lone lowly meteorologist who did some calculations and determined the storm wasn't
heading out to sea but everyone dismissed him. And the rest is history.


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inHISgrip
Weather Watcher


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Re: weight of evidence [Re: h2ocean]
      #73491 - Wed Sep 06 2006 09:56 PM

The 00Z look the same. Everything still between 65-70 degrees on the turn to the north. Also, the bams 00Z seems to be the same as the 1800z run. The NGPI has moved more to the east then at 1800z.
God Bless
Jeff

Edited by inHISgrip (Wed Sep 06 2006 10:22 PM)


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Ryan
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Re: The 11 is out. [Re: cieldumort]
      #73492 - Wed Sep 06 2006 10:47 PM

so are we officially clear here in the NE?

maybe. -HF

Edited by HanKFranK (Wed Sep 06 2006 11:37 PM)


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Lee-Delray
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Re: The 11 is out. [Re: Ryan]
      #73493 - Wed Sep 06 2006 10:57 PM

No one is in the clear until it passes. Even with Jeanne (2004) that didn't seem to matter. The atmosphere doesn't do what the models tell it to do.

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inHISgrip
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Re: The 11 is out. [Re: Ryan]
      #73494 - Wed Sep 06 2006 10:58 PM

"AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING THE SYSTEM
LOCATED JUST OFF THE COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA FOUND AN ELONGATED
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE BUT NO WELL-DEFINED SURFACE CIRCULATION. THE
SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MERGE WITH A NEARBY FRONTAL ZONE ON THURSDAY
AND DEVELOPMENT INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IS NOT ANTICIPATED".
_____________________________________________________________________________________

Looks like the NHC does not feel like 92L will be a player in the path of Florence.


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HanKFranK
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Re: The 11 is out. [Re: inHISgrip]
      #73496 - Wed Sep 06 2006 11:58 PM

fascinating. florence has a whole lot going on, but only where it doesn't count. there is plenty of deep convection but it is all east of the center. shear isn't all that bad anymore, hasn't been very oppressive for a day or so now. still, the storm has developed its anticyclone in the wrong place... the deep convection feeds the anticyclone and keeps a slightly tighter shear gradient over the center, and the center whips up more convection to keep it going. broad as it is, it might just jump east or something. or somehow keep finding ways to remain weak.
there are a lot more roadblocks to development around this season, and every storm seems to find them and make friends. upper lows are also not pulling out quickly enough for systems to just develop unopposed. storm six, in spite of being a huge cape verde type system, isn't immune from the story of the season either. it'll most likely win out and become a large, dangerous type hurricane. probably as it is starting to recurve, just as the official says.
to the east, 91L persists and has recentered further to the north where the global models that held onto it kept it. convection has increased a little bit this evening, but with florence flailing away it should experience shear and starved inflow persistently for the next few days. the NHC is giving it the thumbs down. the trades have weakened quite a bit and it might just hang back and let florence get further up the trail, but most likely it'll keep suffering under the bad company that is florence.
the NHC official shows florence starting a NE turn at the end of the forecast period, and the model consensus is flipped back to the east some over the 12Z globals. the official looks good and unless something changes florence is going fishing, with maybe a passing interest in bermuda. i'm going to assume that is the future track until solid evidence presents itself otherwise.
92L's center may have closed off a tad, but it appears to be right on the frontal zone now. it is getting enough southwesterly shear that no further development should occur, of the tropical sort at least.
the wave near a bahamas to abc islands axis has some action along and in front of it. there's decent ridging aloft in the area, but nothing as of yet. a couple of low swirls on the northern side are lifting up into the baroclinic zone. with the pattern over the next week any threat to the u.s. would have to come out of the caribbean... some of the globals are showing low pressures in the area but nothing doing for now.
so close to the peak of the season now, and just a rather clumsy tropical storm to show for it right now.
HF 0357z07september


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typhoon_tip
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Status/update [Re: HanKFranK]
      #73504 - Thu Sep 07 2006 12:16 PM

Florence appears unhealthy as of the 11am hour....

As of 11am, Flo’ is still a rather ragged looking 45kt TS and shear is still evidenced as highly impacting the structure and vitality of her convection, lifting lower altitude anvil elements laterally from S to N, across the axis of rotation as they attempt to erupt. That is very bad for TC intensification.

The very deep and persistent convection that demarcated her NE semi-circle over the past 24 hours is diminished in intensity, very recently too. At one time yesterday it could be noted that a low-level cloud swirl, or local vorticity maximum embedded within an anomalously large circulation field (700 nautical mile diameter!), had shifted N during the day and apparently up underneath the very cold cloud tops of that convection. Moreover, the massive circumvallate of Flo's N and E outer regions began to even take on more classic appearance of anticyclonic outflow near dark last evening.

Despite these histories and observations that suggested Flo was about to enter an important intensification behavior late yesterday, that has not taken place overnight. Flo' has again exposed what is best interpreted as her circulation center, another of these smaller vorticity maximums; they are as good a candidate as any for potentially focusing a clear center. Having seen one of these cloud swirls migrate up underneath the convection yesterday, along with:
a) The departure of the shear imposing U/A low migrating WSW away from Flo,
b) ...And the gaining of anticyclonic motion in the outflow over the N and E canopy

...really had me believing that when we awoke this am we'd have a hurricane out there. I am a surprised to see this look so ragged this morning.

The problem may turn out to be correctly timing that expected attenuation of shear. It was predicted by most global models that the shear would begin to relax in 3 days, about 3 days ago now…Clearly that has yet to really be observed. It may be premature to make this call by a little, but it does appear the shear is persisting a tad longer than the guidance and interpretation by the Met community had believed back then – certainly that is true for my self. We’ll have to give it the daylight hours today to fairly judge how premature that anticipation really was, but shear is in no hurry as of 11am to demonstrate any cooperation with those ideas. One thing we also have to remember is that shear can impact at different levels, such that you may often see nice circular outflow, with shear punching into the mid levels of the system - not always readily discerned... I can see some evidence of very high cirrus fragments moving in a divergent pattern, while also seeing some shallower convection "tipping" still across the axis of rotation.. This is all probably some evidence for complicated shear levels. Bottom line, until this shear finally relaxes, all intensity guidance and probably to some extent the longer term track guidance will be in trouble.

Here is why:
Much of Flo’s track will depend on her vertical structure. If she remains a shallow entity, such that she is regardless of how broad her circulation is at this time, she will be less influenced by deep layer steering levels and more likely to move along with the llv environmental winds.

Most of the guidance is still as of the overnight AMAZINGLY tightly clustered around a rather obnoxious solution, obnoxious when considering classical synoptic reasoning. More typically (classically), when you see a TC near 20N/50W and you have a large region of mid level heights that are demarcated by 588dms, while (and this key) you have lower heights continuing along a more westerly track, it is more intuitively pleasing to envision the TC availing of less resistance along that westerly course in the atmosphere. That “less” resistance is not through the 588dm ridge region.

So how does this happen? The interpretation from the large Met community is that a weakness will form in the ridge’s western aspect about 72 hours from now, and this will be what Flo’ uses to start gaining latitude in great leaps… (Some guidance even appear to move Flo’ N, once making this turn, faster than any observed steering, which is truly bizarre and unlikely).

Anyway, a problem I have with the timing of that re-curve is and has been:
a) Flo appears to begin re-curving in the runs too earnestly relative to weakness strength/arrival. TCs usually will resist the steering influence for a while before actually responding. 3 days is a lot of time for a TC to get its act together, which may very well take place here. A weak Flo’ will not respond and will likely move more W; a moderately intensified Flo’ may be more likely to respond a bit faster; a very strong Flo’ is likely to resist for generating a protective envelopment of higher heights and surrounding ring of higher surface pressure.
b) The persistent bias in model performance has been too quick to erode the western areas of ridges. That may not matter this time, which would be a tremendous stroke of luck for middle and upper EC areas. Perhaps the models will happen to be right about WAR reduction timing. I also was made aware that some of the initializations last night were as much as 1.5dm too low with the heights near Bermuda; perhaps that fact is evidence of premature erosion?

Be that as it may, the models are somehow compensating for these concerns in their processing of the data, and insisting that Flo’ will behave accordingly.

Conclusion: I would suggest we continue to go with the model cluster but keep some of these ideas in the back of our minds as new runs come out. Using that philosophy, Bermuda is the "most" threatened at this time, but I caution that much can still happen in 96+ hours (time before impact there when using 00Z and 06Z GFDL mean). Bermuda is like trying to hit a dart with a dart board and from 96 hours out, you may as well be trying to do that from 100 feet. We should monitor the structure of Flo' as a "possible" course correction when then balancing those observations with synoptic permutation/evolutions.

John

Edited by typhoon_tip (Thu Sep 07 2006 12:18 PM)


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scottsvb
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Re: Status/update [Re: typhoon_tip]
      #73505 - Thu Sep 07 2006 02:16 PM

alot of good solutions there.. but the LLF near 65W is already NNW...in 2 days it will be near 60W (about where she should be) so even if shes a TD with pressures up to 1008 she will still be steered NNW then N and NNE by day 3. Systems only continue a W path when there is no trough or front boundry.

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Storm Trooper
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Re: Status/update [Re: scottsvb]
      #73507 - Thu Sep 07 2006 04:44 PM

Forward speed is 14 now. setting up for a hook? what do you guys think about the change?

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zacros
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Re: Status/update [Re: scottsvb]
      #73508 - Thu Sep 07 2006 05:29 PM

As noted in the impressive post above, Florence has looked rather assymetrical with most of the convection located east of the center. However, in the most recent satallite shots, a lot of convection is building around the main LLC. The visual is impressive. You can watch the LLC move from an open area into the convection. So, it looks like Florence is beginning to organize and should continue to strengthen from here. Visual Sat

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typhoon_tip
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Re: Status/update [Re: scottsvb]
      #73509 - Thu Sep 07 2006 05:32 PM

Quote:

alot of good solutions there.. but the LLF near 65W is already NNW...in 2 days it will be near 60W (about where she should be) so even if shes a TD with pressures up to 1008 she will still be steered NNW then N and NNE by day 3. Systems only continue a W path when there is no trough or front boundry.




Agreed - like I intimated, the shallowness of Flo' will have different steering levels. Flo' is getting cooking now though...

As to fronts and hurricanes: This tends to be true... Fronts may bulge or move polarward as warm boundaries, as a TC gets near, but TCs do not cross these boundaries... The boundaries either decay first, or in some rare cases the TC may take on "baroclinic thermodynamics" and actually link up with the boundary like a mid-latitude cyclone.

Edited by typhoon_tip (Thu Sep 07 2006 05:33 PM)


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stormtiger
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Re: My take [Re: Unregistered User]
      #73510 - Thu Sep 07 2006 05:37 PM

It may have speeded up, but it's not in very good shape. It looks like a very large lopsided storm with most of the weather on the East side. It sure doesn't look like a traditional large Cape Verdi storm.

Storms have started around the center in the NW quadrant, but dry air is being sucked in from the West and Southwest. It is still being sheared, but that is predicted to let up. As big as Florence is I think she will have a hard, slow time in revving up, but as far out from the CONUS as she is, she will have time to do so once the shear relaxes.

I do not see anything keeping her from recurving as predicted, but I could see florence never becoming a hurricane. She is a weird storm for the prime of the season.


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typhoon_tip
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Re: My take [Re: stormtiger]
      #73511 - Thu Sep 07 2006 06:21 PM

Quote:

... It sure doesn't look like a traditional large Cape Verdi storm.....




But she is a "large" Cape Verdi storm.. Her circulation envelope not spans nearly 900nm as per the 5pm discussion! That's truly massive.... But I see what you mean... her over all structure is not nicely symmetrical as of 6pm..

Edited by typhoon_tip (Thu Sep 07 2006 06:22 PM)


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HanKFranK
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Re: My take [Re: typhoon_tip]
      #73512 - Thu Sep 07 2006 06:51 PM

official on florence looks pretty good.. unless that low forming near the georgia coast behind 92L (since merged into the same front) is deeper than shown and draws the storm more directly northward. the threat zone really doesn't go west of the gulf of maine, with nova scotia and newfoundland possibly threatened after bermuda gets hit around monday. there are still a variety of solutions... the consensus brings the storm close enough to merit attention. the official is close enough to bermuda that the island may experience prolonged hurricane conditions, with the large envelope of the storm.
florence is extremely broad and may not begin to really deepen/focus its energy until it's on a baroclinic surge northward ahead of the oncoming trough. outflow is impressive but strung out east-west right now.
globals show that maybe some remnant vorticity from 91L may remain after florence departs. this is suspect since the broad circulation of florence could easily absorb it all. a broad/weak type low is shown in the southwest caribbean in some modeling but it doesn't appear to have the synoptic setup necessary to stew and incubate. a couple of waves should depart the cape verdes and modeling indicates that at least one should make a charge at development. for september things are running typical to a tad slow. with just florence in the atlantic and a dying depression in the eastpac... and empty westpac... things are running very slow overall.
HF 2251z07september


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richisurfs
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Finally a different perspective [Re: HanKFranK]
      #73514 - Thu Sep 07 2006 08:19 PM

I for one am really glad to finally get to track a storm for its wave potential and not for it's threat to some area of our coastline....at least I'm assuming not at this point. I do hope the brunt of Florence, however strong it ends up being, spares Bermuda. Does anyone know if they get the majority of their information from the NHC?

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cieldumort
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Re: Finally a different perspective [Re: richisurfs]
      #73516 - Fri Sep 08 2006 12:10 AM

Significant structural changes are underway this evening/tonight.

For the very first time, deep convection has successfully wrapped around the western semi-circle, pretty much. The painfully dry air that had been overwhelming her attempts at finding a true center has, for now and the foreseeable near-term future, been mixed out.

The ULL just to Flo's west is opening up, and Florence seems to be getting underneath it. As the ULL weakens and Flo gets situated more directly underneath, even the mid-level shear should continue to relax, and possibly drop to levels near zero.

All in all, dry air out, deep convection in. Harsh shear gone, slowly forming upper-level anticyclone in.

Nocturnal maxima tonight - it will be very telling to see what kind of shape Florence is in come sunrise. My bet should current trends continue is for at least a 60MPH 995MB TS by mid-morning Friday, if not sooner. If someone was to tell me that Florence is to become our next hurricane by the 5PM advisory Friday, I wouldn't dare argue the strong possibility.


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BillD
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Re: My take [Re: HanKFranK]
      #73517 - Fri Sep 08 2006 12:18 AM

A quite candid statement from Avila in the 11:00 PM Discussion, from what I remember he is usually more circumspect.

I CANNOT FIND ANY REAL GOOD REASON WHY FLORENCE HAS NOT YET
INTENSIFIED SINCE THE INGREDIENTS COMMONLY USED TO FORECAST
STRENGTHENING ARE PRESENT. THE OCEAN IS PLENTY WARM...ABOUT 29
DEGREES CELSIUS ACCORDING TO NEARBY BUOYS...THE SHEAR IS LOW...AND
THERE IS A LARGE LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC ENVELOPE WITH PLENTY OF
CONVECTION. IN ADDITION...RELIABLE MODELS HAVE BEEN SHOWING
INTENSIFICATION FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS...ALTHOUGH THEY HAVE BEGUN TO
BACK OFF A LITTLE. THE ONLY SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE CONTRIBUTIONS TO
INTENSITY CHANGE ACCORDING TO THE SHIPS MODEL ARE THE TEMPERATURES
AT THE UPPER LEVELS...AND THE HUMIDITY. HAVING SAID THAT...I HAVE
NO CHOICE BUT TO FORECAST STRENGTHENING AGAIN.

On the water vapor and IR, I notice a tightening and some increase in intensity over the last few hours but only near the center (although it seems to be forcing moisture into the dry air to the SW). Almost the entire south side is dry air, and shear continues. Another storm that should be something, but isn't.

Bill


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cieldumort
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Re: My take [Re: BillD]
      #73518 - Fri Sep 08 2006 12:32 AM

I think Avila may become much more confident in his abilities once again, soon enough. Raw T out of CIMSS is already a 3.6 and climbing. Florence has clearly improved tonight, and this is almost certain to be translated into winds at the surface, shortly. While the shear is still apparent, it is also obviously having less and less of a negative effect on the cyclone's ability to organize, and this shear should continue to be on a decreasing trend.

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HanKFranK
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Re: My take [Re: cieldumort]
      #73519 - Fri Sep 08 2006 02:20 AM

unless florence is feinting again, the storm is about to finally do some deepening. one can only wonder what the profile of the storm will really be like--gfs shows it never contracting into a tight, intense storm, but rather remaining a very broad cat 2. may have an unusually large eye to go with the unusually large circulation, if that verifies. there's enough model consensus on the recurvature path to start assuming bermuda will get socked real good on monday. the additional baroclinic activity near the east coast should have moved northeast ahead of florence and act to draw the storm more northeast than some of the last couple days' runs were indicating... threat to canada may be on the slide. should be big enough that even coming close will roughen the weather up there, although the canadian martimes are one of the stormier places on earth and it shouldn't be anything that out of the norm.
the invest that was trailing florence lost its identity some in the improving outflow of its larger sibling, yet there is still a discernable turning max to the east of florence... the larger system also sped up today, and is leaving it some more breathing room. the global models have been 'seeing' this feature persistently and many still are, in spite of the NHC seemingly losing interest.
globals still indicate a broad area of lower pressures in the western caribbean. none show any development. one can only wonder when an autumn high finally will drop into the east with enough strength to logjam the area and send a storm up. it is still early september and blocky type highs have already made themselves felt in the western atlantic/eastern u.s. the caribbean may end up getting busied up... with pattern-induced type storms rather than random waves acting up. abnormal dryness, higher than normal pressures, and shear have kept most of the waves in the deep tropics rather humble so far this season. there hasn't been much in the way of those corresponding systems in the mid-latitudes that usually take up some of the slack when the deep tropics are less active. adds up to a quiet august and an unimpressive start to september.
i can only wonder what the larger implications of the quietude in the northern hemisphere will be. the western pacific is a meatgrinder of upper lows and troughs, with ioke's intrusion from the central pacific the only significant system in that part of the world in three weeks. usually when that side is quiet you'd expect this side to be cranking--there have been a few eastern pacific storms during august, though things have been quieting some.
the silence is almost deafening.
HF 0620z08september


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cieldumort
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Re: My take [Re: HanKFranK]
      #73520 - Fri Sep 08 2006 04:55 AM

The Truly Bizarre

Does not end.

This is the peak. (?!)

Someone forgot to tell the forecasts that El Nino has been developing all season.

5AM - 50MPH, 1000MB Florence has not availed herself of the lower shear to be had by sneaking further under the weakening ULL to the west. In fact, after a few hours of strongly hinting to do so, Flo may have begun taking more of that NW instead of WNW path, while the ULL has continued seemingly south of west, placing Flo back into some increasingly hostile dry air intrusion and southwesterly shear. If Florence keeps moving more NW, chances even look possible that by later today she will be hitting some outrageously strong shearing from the ULL, then even more to her SW than W. What in the **** season is this, anyway? The Truly Bizarre. Wait, wasn't that last year? Ahhh.. this is the other side of that pendulum. Now, I understand.


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Lee-Delray
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Re: Florence slowly strengthening in the Atlantic [Re: HanKFranK]
      #73524 - Fri Sep 08 2006 09:27 AM

What I find interesting is that the NHC doesn't see anything else out there. I guess Florence is so big there isn't room for anything else (joke).

Even if this doesn't develop into a Hurricane or if it stays west of them, Bermuda is in for a long event with a storm of this size.


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zacros
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Re: Florence slowly strengthening in the Atlantic [Re: Lee-Delray]
      #73525 - Fri Sep 08 2006 09:39 AM

Florence is looking healthy this morning. The storm appears to be overcoming the shear that has been inhibiting the system for days (or the shear is finally relaxing enough). Convection stayed over the center overnight, and it appears that Florence will begin to strengthen into a hurricane. I am interested to see what the 11 am numbers will be. The storm does appear to be tracking slightly more north that the forecast points though.

On another note, the East Coast should begin seeing a ground swell from the system by Saturday afternoon, Sunday at the latest. With the large fetch the tropical storm force winds have been covering, it will be interesting to see how this translates into waves along the coast.


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stormtiger
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Re: Florence slowly strengthening in the Atlantic [Re: zacros]
      #73527 - Fri Sep 08 2006 11:18 AM

LOL, the 11am numbers are the same and Avilla almost dropped the wind speed.

He does say at the end of the disco that Florence is beginning to look a little better on the last two visibles. He even adds that "maybe science will prevail."

I think the NHC boys see this year as a huge challenge and their human side is showing. Storms are not behaving as predicted especially in their intensities.

Florence continues to fight all the dry air on it's West and Southwest flank. It is a huge storm, but then it looks like a GOM storm in June or July. Lopsided.

If Florence doesn't become a hurricane it would be par for the season. Too much dry air, and too many ULLs out there.

But the track has shifted slowly over the past couple of days Eastward. Now Bermuda is in the crosshairs. Hopefully florence won't strengthen and the folks in Bermuda will just get a lot of gales and surf which I'm sure they are prepared to get year round.


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Lee-Delray
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Re: Florence slowly strengthening in the Atlantic [Re: stormtiger]
      #73528 - Fri Sep 08 2006 11:38 AM

Dr. Master's on his web page is discussing and El Nino starting in October which obvious would be good for those of us un the Atlantic.

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stormtiger
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Re: Florence may be winning. [Re: Lee-Delray]
      #73530 - Fri Sep 08 2006 12:11 PM

Recent water vapor shots show Florence pushing out the dry air on the West and Southwest. If this trend continues, then Bermuda may see a substantial hurricane. More T-storms are building around the center. Florence appears ready to take off. Let's see if she wins the battle.

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cieldumort
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Re: Florence slowly strengthening in the Atlantic [Re: stormtiger]
      #73531 - Fri Sep 08 2006 12:35 PM

Forecasting intensity is running decades behind forecasting track. At least we have track worked out fairly well.

As I see it, Flo's largest problems have been, in order of importance: Flo's size, dry air, shear, less than ideal upper-level temps, initially marginal SSTs, and originally a competing system, or two. Nothing in that mix screams of rapid intensification, sure, but one would think we would have seen some slow pick-up by now - at least to 60MPH is where I was yesterday for this time today. But alas, Flo's woes won out (for now).

Read the above comment about a future El Nino. Really a place for another forum, but as I also think it relates to Flo in the bigger scheme of things, I would just point out that El Nino does not turn on and off like a light from a light switch. It is a process, and once it has reached a certain threshold (location, temperature anomaly and duration) climatologists declare that an El Nino has begun. What gets missed with this, is that for an El Nino to be declared, the culmination of events (duration, location, anomaly) were already well-underway. My point being is that we have quite possibly (and I think likely) been seeing the influence of an El Nino-like pattern for some time now - there is data which bears this out extremely well.

Best I can tell, Flo's primary LLC (certainly do believe that there is one!) is a touch north of where NHC has put it again. Zooming in on the RGB-enhanced (one of my favorites) it's really almost surprising they did not relocate it to the north, already


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AgentB
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Re: Florence slowly strengthening in the Atlantic [Re: cieldumort]
      #73532 - Fri Sep 08 2006 12:47 PM

I've been keeping an eye on the satellite loops this morning since it seemed like Florence should be strengthening any time. To me, it appears that she's finally getting her act together over a consistent period of time. Convection has wrapped around, and she's appeared to have tightened up a bit.

--------------------
Check the Surf


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Psyber
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Re: Florence slowly strengthening in the Atlantic [Re: AgentB]
      #73533 - Fri Sep 08 2006 12:57 PM

More database problems I guess. We're missing the 11AM.

Much bigger and Florence is going to start to make the earth look like Jupiter.

--------------------
Leave it to Accuweather to take the accuracy out of weather.


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Kitten0234
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Re: Florence slowly strengthening in the Atlantic [Re: Psyber]
      #73534 - Fri Sep 08 2006 01:17 PM

TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE ADVISORY NUMBER 20
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062006
1100 AM AST FRI SEP 08 2006

...FLORENCE APPEARS TO BE READY TO STRENGTHEN...

THE BERMUDA WEATHER SERVICE WILL LIKELY ISSUE WATCHES OR WARNINGS
LATER TODAY.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 1100 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 59.1 WEST OR ABOUT 420
MILES...675 KM...NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS AND ABOUT
730 MILES...1175 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA.

FLORENCE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 17 MPH...28 KM/HR
...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 405 MILES...650 KM
TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 1100 AM AST POSITION...23.0 N...59.1 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 17 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB.


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CoalCracker
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07L? [Re: Kitten0234]
      #73535 - Fri Sep 08 2006 02:43 PM

Color me confused. In checking the SSD site for Dvorak Estimates on Florence, lo and behold they also show T numbers for 07L at 21.9N/46.5W while the Navy site eariler dropped 92L and 91L and still only shows Florence, no 91L let alone 07L. Anyone have an explanation?

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Lee-Delray
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Re: 07L? [Re: CoalCracker]
      #73536 - Fri Sep 08 2006 02:53 PM

Florence is 06L; she's big and she's there.

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typhoon_tip
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Florence strengthening... [Re: HanKFranK]
      #73537 - Fri Sep 08 2006 03:05 PM

Florence is approaching hurricane strengh.
NESDIS objective T numbers are now 3.5, which is equivalent to 65mph winds.

In the last 2 hours the TC is showing more polarward aspect to her movement... We shall have to let this evolve a little while longer to be certain of this, but the apparent westerly motion during the morning hours looks as though it is beginning to align with track expectations.

Bermuda is unfortunatley under the gun. It is unclear how intense Florence will be as she approaches the Island, but this is also a good time to remind folks not to focus on the exact center of the circulation, particularly in the situation such as this, where the circulation envelope spans over 800nautical miles in diameter.

These wind radii may actually even expand farther as Florence intensifies while gaining latitude. The mechanics for how that takes place are because higher ambient surface pressure exists as we look polarward from the tropical regions, and as Florence deepens and moves bodily into these regions, there will be an expansion of the PGF (pressure gradient force) in all direction. To compound, there is a large surface ridge pushing ESE from SE Canada over the next 48 hours, and this will only increase said gradient as Florence moves N and is then picked up by the middle tropospheric westerlies associated with troughing and accelerated NE along the leading edge of this anticyclone. Deep low pressure passing along the leading edge of a positive pressure anomaly means that gale force winds will extend quite far from the center, perhaps to nearly Cape Cod, as Florence makes her closest pass.

Correction: it is too early to let your guard down in the Canadian province of Nova Scotia. New Foundland is a growing concern - right now it is beginning to look like Flo' may pass just SE of NS but make an approach on New Foundland. Models are fairly tightly clustered around a close enough pass to bring wind concerns to SE NS and definitely so for New Foundland.

A storm of this size passing even within 70 miles of Bermuda may carry some very strong wind concerns. As to intensity, every conventional technique for determining intensity prospects suggests she should be intensifying the entire re-curvature process... Once she gets nearly abeam of Bermuda's latitude, shear may begin to impact the system again but this is dependent on how fast she is moving along with the environmental steering flow.

Florence will likely be transitioning into a monster extratropical cyclone as she passes through the North Atlantic shipping routes.

John

Edited by typhoon_tip (Fri Sep 08 2006 03:49 PM)


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CarolinaGurl
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Re: 07L? [Re: CoalCracker]
      #73538 - Fri Sep 08 2006 04:09 PM

Here is what the previous post was talking about

Tropical Storm Position and Intensity Page

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Last Update: Fri Sep 8 18:37:09 UTC 2006
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Users are reminded that the posted SSD position and intensity may differ from official information.
For official information:
Tropical Prediction Center (TPC)
Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC)
Joint Typhoon Warning Center in Honolulu (JTWC)
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Most Recent Positions Regardless of Basin (if available):
DATE/TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION STORM
08/1745 UTC 23.7N 59.5W T3.5/3.5 FLORENCE -- Atlantic Ocean
08/1745 UTC 21.9N 46.5W T1.0/1.0 07L -- Atlantic Ocean
08/1433 UTC 27.1N 164.8E T1.0/1.0 92W -- West Pacific Ocean
08/1145 UTC 22.3N 57.9W T2.5/2.5 FLORENCE -- Atlantic Ocean
08/0833 UTC 25.9N 165.3E T1.0/1.5 92W -- West Pacific Ocean

Here is the address to that page http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/positions.html

New storm out there?

--------------------
My Storms - Hugo, Bertha, Bonnie, Fran, Dennis, Floyd, Ophelia, Ernesto, Irene. Arthur


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thurricane
Unregistered




Re: Florence strengthening... [Re: typhoon_tip]
      #73539 - Fri Sep 08 2006 04:21 PM

this seassion is strange it seems every storm has a hard time cranking up.
it seems the upper air patterns have been winter like all summer.
IF this this pattern stay the same we might only get 1 or 2 more storms
if were lucky.


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Ed in Va
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Re: 07L? [Re: CarolinaGurl]
      #73540 - Fri Sep 08 2006 04:41 PM

I guess the "new storm" is what is trailing Florence. Some of the models earlier in the week had that develop into something that stayed south and became a significant system. Hasn't been much discussion about it in the last couple of days, though.

--------------------
Survived Carol and Edna '54 in Maine. Guess this kind of dates me!


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danielwAdministrator
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Re: Florence strengthening... [Re: Unregistered User]
      #73546 - Fri Sep 08 2006 08:54 PM

Latest, 0015Z, Dvorak Estimates are giving Florence a Raw T number of 4.3, with a 6 hour average and Current Intensity of 3.8.
Estimated MCP of 989.8mb, and estimated max. wind speed of 61kts, or 70.2 mph.

4 Convective clusters are near the storm center. RECON will definitely have a bumpy ride if this convection persists.

0015Z Dvorak Image

Edited by danielw (Fri Sep 08 2006 09:28 PM)


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BillD
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Re: 07L? [Re: Ed in Va]
      #73547 - Fri Sep 08 2006 09:23 PM

NRL just put up 93L, what I would call the former 91L, and potentially could become 07L, but not yet.

Florence looking slightly better all the time, it is organizing at a painful pace. However Bermuda needs to watch this one closely.

Bill


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danielwAdministrator
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93L [Re: BillD]
      #73548 - Fri Sep 08 2006 09:35 PM

NHC's take on 93L.

...A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 47W S OF 17N MOVING W NEAR 10 KT.
LAST NIGHT THIS WAVE LOOKED LIKE IT WAS BECOMING ABSORBED BY THE LARGE CIRCULATION OF FLORENCE.
HOWEVER... SATELLITE IMAGERY NOW SUGGEST THAT IT IS A SEPARATE FEATURE.
AN AREA OF LOW PRES HAS ALSO FORMED ON THIS WAVE NEAR 21N/22N.
THIS WAVE WILL LIKELY BE MADE HIGHER AMPLITUDE ON THE 00 UTC ANALYSIS TO REFLECT THIS.
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...SHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE UNFAVORABLE.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATWDAT+shtml/090006.shtml?


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danielwAdministrator
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Other Waves [Re: danielw]
      #73549 - Fri Sep 08 2006 09:58 PM

With all respect to TAFB/ NHC, I don't see any mention of the wave at/ near 9N/ 43W.
Persistant cold cloud tops from 1845Z to 0115Z.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl.html
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/jsl-l.jpg


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ltpat228
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Re: Other Waves [Re: danielw]
      #73550 - Fri Sep 08 2006 10:12 PM

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html

Edited by danielw (Fri Sep 08 2006 10:19 PM)


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cieldumort
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Re: Other Waves [Re: ltpat228]
      #73552 - Fri Sep 08 2006 11:58 PM

Well, recon is in Florence right now. Most recently found a flight-level wind of about 43.7mph out of the NNE. Hopefully, recon will gather a much more accurate picture of what kind of animal we are looking at tonight.

93L (I agree that it should have simply been left as 91L) does have a pretty decent low level circulation as well as deep convection, but the convection is outrageously displaced to the SE of the LLC and is being ripped and torn by shear. It is impressive that it has retained so much of it's identity and was not ingested by Florence, after all.


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BillD
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Re: Other Waves [Re: danielw]
      #73553 - Sat Sep 09 2006 12:46 AM

Quote:


With all respect to TAFB/ NHC, I don't see any mention of the wave at/ near 9N/ 43W.



I have been watching that area all day, and am surprised that they don't at least mention it in the discussion. They do indirectly, in the ITCZ section. But this seems to be more than just a flare up along the ITCZ.

Bill


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danielwAdministrator
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430 AM EDT Update [Re: BillD]
      #73555 - Sat Sep 09 2006 04:39 AM

Recon has departed Florence.
Max Flight level wind speed was 61kts, or 70.2 mph.
Minimum Central Pressure was 993mb.

Center was relocated to the South of the Satellite Estimated Position.

The 0745Z Dvorak Estimates are Current Intensity of 4.4
Raw T Number of 4.5
Estimated Minimum Central Pressure of 980.4mb

Next RECON is tasked with an 09/ 1800Z center fix.
Short flights, 4 hours total.
Third Flight is tasked with a 10/ 0600Z Center fix.

Edited by danielw (Sat Sep 09 2006 04:46 AM)


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ltpat228
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Re: 430 AM EDT Update [Re: danielw]
      #73556 - Sat Sep 09 2006 05:01 AM

I see the exact same info on the main page regarding recon.
Did I miss something in DanielW's translation?


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Storm Cooper
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Re: 430 AM EDT Update [Re: ltpat228]
      #73557 - Sat Sep 09 2006 05:05 AM

Often when the Main Page is updated it is reflected in the Thread also.

--------------------
Hurricane Season 2012 11/5/2


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danielwAdministrator
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Re: 430 AM EDT Update [Re: ltpat228]
      #73558 - Sat Sep 09 2006 05:18 AM

Some people go right to the Main Thread and skip the Main Page Updates.
So I placed the same info here in a smaller space.

Reruns until next season


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allan
Weather Master


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Re: Other Waves [Re: BillD]
      #73560 - Sat Sep 09 2006 09:35 AM

So Florence hasnt curved northwest yet? This is something interesting to watch. Some models have it heading west of Bermuda then curve it due east then from what it looks like.. maybe a loop? Hurricane are known to do that. I can't say the USA is out of the question yet... I see the 2 troughs.. they look stronger than I thought before but there is an opening just south of the low next to the Carolinas. Should be a hurricane by the 11 a.m. We'll just have to wait and see what happens with Florence as I do believe she will curve but west of Bermuda she wil turn.

--------------------
Allan Reed - 18,9,5


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Gary in Jax
Unregistered




Re: 430 AM EDT Update [Re: danielw]
      #73561 - Sat Sep 09 2006 09:37 AM

With Flo being further south and more west than the earlier coordinates. Will the new model runs have to shift this further west? It to seems like for the model runs to work as of now Flo would have to go almost NNW sometime today, am I wrong in my thinking?

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GuppieGrouper
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Re: 430 AM EDT Update [Re: Unregistered User]
      #73562 - Sat Sep 09 2006 09:54 AM

I am just an observer and have only a smattering of ability to make out fronts and troughs and dry air. I have been trying to decide how old the satellites that are available to me are. But, based on what I can find, there seems to be other options coming available to the storm. I am wondering if the dry air coming down from Canada is going to nudge things even more south before it is over. Even if it does, there is not any more potential for a strong storm than there ever was. I can see how the NHC was able to change the forecast points but if they launch the rocket from the Cape at 11 today, the satellites may not be up to date for the web until later today which makes weather spelunking not as fun for us freebie watchers.

--------------------
God commands. Laymen guess. Scientists record.


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SebastianLou
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Re: Other Waves [Re: allan]
      #73563 - Sat Sep 09 2006 09:55 AM

Weird to be thinking about the possibility of a Jeanne type loop de loop myself, then see this post. Models, and satellite looks to me to be not showing the whole picture with Florence. Can't a storm be so LARGE that it creates its own environment; seems like I read that before? Just hoping she does not pull any strange moves, but also hoping she does not hit Bermuda. Any thoughts from the more educated in this field?

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typhoon_tip
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Florence nearing Hurricane Status [Re: HanKFranK]
      #73564 - Sat Sep 09 2006 11:17 AM

There are enough subjective satellite observations to suggest Florence is a hurricane, however, TPC has found that the vertical structure is tiltling NW and that they could not find an eye.

...Structural integrity is a factor in the analysis process.

This tilting makes some sense when considering the larger synoptic scale reasoning. There is a deep layer ridge with an axis near 55W/35N and this is imparting a SE to NW pointing vector in the vicinity of Flo'. The SFC to ~H85 flow may have more westerly component, while the ~ H85-H7 field may be more SE... This would be more of a velocity shear as opposed to a directional shear, so may not show up very readily by satellite observations, but would certainly manifest its self as stress to the vertical structure of the cyclone. And, it is probably a nice homage to the direction of continued motion during the nearer term. If this tilting TPC is suggested really exists, it is also probable that the llv aspect (coupled environment) is having to occasional step N up underneath the core of most intense upward vertical motion. This subtle physically caused correction may be disrupting a more explosive intensity curve.

There has been some question as to the significance of the re-positioning S and also, some additional westerly component observed during the overnights.

My suggestion is this will mean very little to the track guidance, but perhaps shifting it a little to the W as Flo' begins whatever form of the parabolic motion into high latitudes she ultimately takes..

Bermuda is still under the gun. The stakes are high... The 00Z and 06Z operational GFS suggest now that Flo's re-curvature may not be a smooth acceleration into higher latitudes. The faster motion would be a better case scenario when having to also except a Bermuda strike, because a faster duration would of course limit the exposure to high winds/seas. However, said GFS solutions offer some deceleration option near Bermuda's lat/lon. That is at least intuitively acceptable because there is a mulit-day, multi-guidance unanimous solution for a large anticyclone to press seawards from the middle latitudes of the N/A continent. That would tend to argue for some form of lower tropospheric block or at least exertion against an out-and-out polarward motion. Not a done deal by any means; something to keep an eye on.

Just an early heads up on "07L"... The name has apparently been changed to 93L with a NESDIS T-number of 1.0. That Dvorak classification has held since last evening and currently looking out there on satellite, there is no question that a tenacious little entity does not want to give up the fight against the tyrrany of NNW shear in the area. I am hoping to do some model analysis on the deep layer environmental expectations for that, during the day. But, Bermuda's threat is more important. Perhaps with 93L we will get some tropical model output off the 12Z runs.

John

Edited by typhoon_tip (Sat Sep 09 2006 11:24 PM)


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Ed in Va
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Re: Other Waves [Re: allan]
      #73565 - Sat Sep 09 2006 11:40 AM

The BAMM models, the ones we love to hate, do suggest the beginning of a loop. Do they have any credibility?

--------------------
Survived Carol and Edna '54 in Maine. Guess this kind of dates me!


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allan
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Re: Other Waves [Re: Ed in Va]
      #73566 - Sat Sep 09 2006 11:46 AM

it can only take one model to prove a turn in all of the models.. Think of Hurricane Jeane with the NOGAPS model. I do see how it can loop by looking at the water vapor image loop. I see a circular rotation around Bermuda. Just got to wait and see. This may actually happen... should be a hurricane very soon. Sure looks like one. It's almost just due south of Bermuda. the models that loop it takes it west than curves it almost due east. The Global models still take a sharp northward turn which I really can't see happening. We're just gonna have to wait and see.

--------------------
Allan Reed - 18,9,5


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typhoon_tip
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Model update... [Re: HanKFranK]
      #73567 - Sat Sep 09 2006 02:10 PM

12z guidance, particularly the GFDL has shifted correction: left in track guidance once Florence has cleared the latitude of Bermuda. This raises concerns for eastern NS and most of NF provinces in Canada. Most guidance overall maintains an air of tropical characteristics and robust intensity at these latitudes, only after which does weakening and/or more concerted extratropical conversion take place.

Other than that...it appears to me that nothing has really changed... The models remain insistent on a rather sharp turn to the N during the next 24 hours and then a gradual acceleration; save the GFS/NOGAPs, which attempt to decelerate Flo' as it passes Bermuda. Currently Flo' has what looks like a CDO and compared to yesterday....the outflow is stellar... Sufficiently warm waters exist along her track expectation to at least 35N, and she'll be passing underneath 200mb divergent U/A, so see no problem with anticipating further intensification. TPC brings her to 95kts or so...

BTW:
Now "93L" was run in the GFDL in the 12Z guidance after all.. However, nadda.. The model initializes it and then sumarily can't find it after 3 or 4 frames. I must admit, until Florence's omnipotent presence clears the area, 93L may have the burden of shear impinging on any developmental prospect.. But that is not a guarantee either, as the models do suggest some improvement in the overal environment. There does not seem to be as much SAL over that part of the ocean, either, which is a good thing for development. While it is not impossible to develop 93L further, the negatives seem to offset trends and positives so it virtually impossible to make a call at this point.

Edited by typhoon_tip (Sat Sep 09 2006 02:17 PM)


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cieldumort
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Re: Model update... [Re: typhoon_tip]
      #73572 - Sun Sep 10 2006 12:52 AM

Did someone hit the perma-snooze button today?

Florence looks pretty sickly tonight. Convection-wise, she has looked alright, with cloud tops even approaching -90C. However, so much of her has been getting drawn northward, that given her rather broad and oblong coc to begin with, I can hardly fathom her being upgraded to a hurricane in the immediate future. To make matters even worse for her, the eastern semi-circle has just had a slice taken out of it tonight, as readily seen here (time sensitive)... Despite what NHC has had to say about the prospects for intensification, the shear appears to be a bit worse than anticipated and/or analyzed, perhaps

Recon going back in here shortly will hopefully help the next advisory come across more like science, and less like card reading.


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HanKFranK
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it's all about the structure [Re: cieldumort]
      #73573 - Sun Sep 10 2006 01:39 AM

florence has to be one of the biggest failure storms i've ever seen. not that it's a bad thing.
there hasn't been any appreciable shear or dry air intrusions for the last couple of days, and a nice strong subtropical ridge to round. florence has a big clumsy vortex that isn't vertically stacked right and can't seem to right itself. it's so far prevented the storm from being able to concentrate its energy and really cycle up. the effect on florence has been sort of like the effect on large hurricanes that spend a day or two on land and lose their core, and come off with broad windfields and spread convection. the figure skater analogy applies... arms out, slow spiral, arms in... whirling blur. florence can't get those arms in.
91L is a trooper. those global models that kept seeing the system remain have verified. it's been bursting convection and keeping away from florence enough that absorption isn't a huge worry. florence should round the ridge with enough speed that they don't close again. the upper outflow jet should also tail around with the storm more and relax as florence whips northward. not a certainty, but its chances are stronger the more it persists. unlike florence, nice tight little vortex with this one. when/if the shear lets up, should take right off. i don't think it will come west, though. florence should knock a huge hole in the atlantic ridge as it goes up, and i doubt it will fill and pinch 91L off before it gets well to the north. unless the storm stays weak longer.. and gets under whatever ridge rebuilds. eh, no telling. haven't looked at any models for a day or two, but most either lost the system or sent it up into a big inverted trough as the surface ridging gelled back together north of bermuda.
haven't looked at the wave off africa. can't be too scary, since the NHC isn't mentioning it. had some model support, if i recall.
september 10th. right near peak season. still just florence.
my 18 storm prediction on this year is going to be a joke. should have stayed with the first impulse 14/9/4. even that should be high. right now we're 6/1/0.
HF 0539z10september


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cieldumort
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Re: it's all about the structure [Re: HanKFranK]
      #73574 - Sun Sep 10 2006 02:13 AM

Well, now that we have Hurricane Florence...

That *maybe* an eye forming as per several microwave passes, was indeed.. an eye. It would have helped those of us sitting here doing the armchair quarterbacking, as well as NHC, to not have had to guess what she was doing during the satellite eclipse. Good job recon! All the more reason we - must - see more recon put in place, IMHO.


Eclipse over - satellites back on board - Raw T from CIMSS up to 5.4 and climbing as I type. Florence is undergoing some healthy intensification during the pre-dawn nocturnal max hours, and seems to have her eye set for Bermuda at this point.


Edited by cieldumort (Sun Sep 10 2006 03:24 AM)


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