LoisCane
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged: Fri
Posts: 1198
Loc: South Florida
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I dont see where that pic shows anything other than recurvature.
It is at the end of the high, angled towards the NW and a front/trof is moving down...
Maybe it would get closer to the US mainland but to me that looks like recurvature.
Mind you.. I really enjoyed looking at it... just think it proves recurvature in my opinon.
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http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/
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LoisCane
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged: Fri
Posts: 1198
Loc: South Florida
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I still think from the latest water temp charts of the far east Atlantic that the water temps are a little below what they should be.
If this wave had rolled off in other seasons... even with the dust out there it would have been something else.
And, I have been watching dust storms since before it became popular but it's one part of the equation.
And, I think water temps have not reached the boiling point they usually are at this time of year there..and soon it will be no longer the CV season.
Awesome getting data that far out from the research project. Thanks for posting on it here.
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http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/
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scottsvb
Weather Master
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1085
Loc: fl
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Alot of hopes on a possible threat from these systems forming off Africa coming close to the U.S. .... as I been saying.. ....Wont happen......there are waves of troughs with the seasonal change over the eastern U.S. and western Atlantic....Cape Verde season for us wont happen.....only thing now is something forming in the Carribean and Gulf over the next few weeks....
scottsvb
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allan
Weather Master
Reged: Thu
Posts: 468
Loc: Palm Coast, Florida 29.55N 81.20W
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Quote:
Alot of hopes on a possible threat from these systems forming off Africa coming close to the U.S. .... as I been saying.. ....Wont happen......there are waves of troughs with the seasonal change over the eastern U.S. and western Atlantic....Cape Verde season for us wont happen.....only thing now is something forming in the Carribean and Gulf over the next few weeks....
scottsvb
Would'nt be so sure about that.. take Hurricane for an example, developed right around where this developed, and it's still moving west or WNW.. Went in the Carribean, became a powerfull hurricane and went into the Gulf.. not the east coast. Yes there is alot of troughiness over the east coast BUT... This can still head to say Florida southward without a curve. It's really that possiible and models are showing more of a westward movement.Don't be so positive on what you predict. 
if you're talking about helene, developed further south and west. there was also a big ridge locked in the western atlantic then, not so right now. -HF
Edited by HanKFranK (Thu Sep 14 2006 12:06 PM)
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dem05
User
Reged: Wed
Posts: 368
Loc: Port Charlotte, FL
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Yes, TD 8 has little chance of being a US threat based on the setup provided by , HF, and the Forum. Likewise, I'd like to remind everone of the 2004 season, maybe many of us in Florida were too weary to notice after Jeanne...Which happened in later September. An El-Nino formed in a weaker fashion and the season was essentially shut down after she hit Florida...Beyond October 7-15, 2006 at the latest...It is growing very unlikely there will be a US Landfall, outside of a rouge storm in the Carribean, Gulf or Bahamas based on previous el nino behavior. It's appearant that the next 3-4 weeks will define the US landfall aspect of the Hurricane Season and with waves developing early like Debbie, Florence, Gordon, and TD 8...they are missing the opportunity to shoot underneath the troughs, develop later, and affect the US. It's still too early to rule out a hit and preparedness with an all hazards approach for any disaster is key for everyone at any time...but from a standpoint of hurricane threats...this season may end up benign and if the El-Nino grows to a moderate or strong by winter into spring...It actually may affect the 2007 season as well. Time, as always, will tell. But everyone should be happy with such news.
Edited by dem05 (Thu Sep 14 2006 02:10 AM)
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GuppieGrouper
Weather Master
Reged: Fri
Posts: 596
Loc: Polk County, Florida
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From the looks of the water vapor still shot, we have a loop of dry air approaching Florida. Nothing going on in the gulf and we have had at least one day without showers. Although it tried very hard last night. It is beginning to look like the potential for landfalling storms is coming to an end. The crazy thing about all of this is that Winter Storms act just like summer storms with high winds, down draft damage, and straightline winds. We have even had tornados along cold front lines that were very destructive in Florida. Helene, Gordon, and Florence will come back to us next year hopefully in rain and nourishment for our flowers. California could use a good soaking in places too.
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God commands. Laymen guess. Scientists record.
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Lee-Delray
Weather Master
Reged: Thu
Posts: 429
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I think its a little too early to write off the rest of the season. We all felt that way down here last year and paid a visit. While, I will agree the conditions are not the same in 2006 as they were in 2005, I'm not ready to give up my hurricane supplies.
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Wxwatcher2
Storm Tracker
Reged: Tue
Posts: 337
Loc: 28.60N 81.35W
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I'd like to add my brief commens on the 06 season thus far.
First, we dodged a bullet in Florida with mainly due to
the mountains of Hispaniola and Cuba. was not even as
bad as a daily thunderstorm in most of Florida.
I am very very happy that we are experiencing the El Ninio effects and that the
developing storms are not making it to the .
We all enjoy tracking the storms and predicting where they will go. However
it thrills me that for the past few weeks we have all been able to relax and do other
things.
Thanks to all the regulars on the board who contribute even in the slower times.
And yes, it's always good to keep your hurricane supplies close by, just in case.
Hey, they can be used for other events as well as hurricanes.
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Ed in Va
Weather Master
Reged: Fri
Posts: 488
Loc: 36.02N 75.67W
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Interesting climatological note for my fellow mid-Atlantic trackers, the only Sep. storm to makelandfall from the current position of Helene was Isabel in 03:
http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200608_climo.html#a_topad
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Survived Carol and Edna '54 in Maine. Guess this kind of dates me!
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charlottefl
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Mon
Posts: 94
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El Nino doesn't stop hurricanes from forming altogether, just makes it a lot harder for these systems to organize, but it doesn't mean that they can't. 1992 was an El Nino year with only 6 storms forming, but that wasn't the important thing about they 1992 season . Cat 5 hurricane Andrew struck homestead. All it takes is one landfalling monster to ruin a season. Now I'm now throwing up the red flags and saying run for the hills, just saying not to let your guard down cause storms can sometimes hit when you least expect them. Having said that hope the rest of the season stays quiet here in the US.
Hurricane (Port Charlotte, FL 2004)
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inHISgrip
Weather Watcher
Reged: Sun
Posts: 25
Loc: Venice, FL.
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Has El Nino even hit yet, wind shear is still low in many places. Also, Jeff Masters said it would not be here untill the end of the season.
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cieldumort
Moderator
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1023
Loc: Texas 30.40N 97.80W
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Really a topic for another forum, I am quite sure. Hopefully the mods will move this thread for us.
El Nino doesn't "hit." This is not a "storm," in any sense of the word, just like a "Monsoon" is not a single thunderstorm or rain. Using economics as an analogy, similar to a recession, El Nino is a process that takes weeks and months to come to fruition, likely got it's roots in place way back as early as April or May of this year, becoming a bit recognizable by June, and met the required definitions to be "declared" as of this month. As such, by the time those who do so let us know that El Nino is going to influence our weather, chances are we have already been seeing some of this for a bit.
El Nino also takes many weeks and months to wind down after reaching it's peak. It is entirely plausible that the current El Nino may not abate until sometime around the first few months of next year.
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cieldumort
Moderator
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1023
Loc: Texas 30.40N 97.80W
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It's always too early to "write-off" any season. To do so is fool's bait. While we have our first Major Hurricane of the 2006 season spinning the fish, and Helene expected to probably recurve as well, things do have a way of forming closer to home when we least expect them - even during El Nino years -
As an example, a quasi-tropical low has been forming this afternoon near 32.5N 72.5W that does not even have an Invest tag on it - IMHO it should - take a look for yourself. It is essentially a non-frontal, troffy, but looking increasingly warm-core, lower level low partially over the Stream with some pretty good inflow and suggestions of some banding. These things just happen. Also take Tropical Storm Helene (using a recent example a little farther out) - while there was some good model support for a TC to eventually grow out of that particular African Easterly Wave, this thing wasn't even tagged as an Invest but for mere minutes, it seemed, before we had our TD 8.
It's the peak of the season, and historically things can and do form fast, come fast, and surprise fast, at this time of the year.
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Ryan
Storm Tracker
Reged: Tue
Posts: 281
Loc: Long Island, NY / Stuart, FL
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Let's see if we can figure this out, shall we. Three of the past four tropical systems headed for the North Atlantic. So far only Florence had any impact on land first hitting Bermuda then slamming Newfoundland. Debby stayed way out over the ocean, and Gordon will do the same. Now, what about Helene? Will she follow the same route of the others? Quite possibly that will be the case. The air streams that steered the other storms away from the United States haven't changed much... yet. I used the word "yet" to catch your interest. The flow across the Atlantic will subtly shift over the next several days which might open a window to the west for Helene. The Accuweather.com Hurricane Center will be watching for this possibility. In near term however, no storm is within striking distance of our coastline, and that will continue to be the case for days.
Story by Accuweather.com Expert Senior Meteorologist John Kocet.
ok now i know Accuweather is usually weong and not reliable but i was wondering still, is the flow across the Atlantic subtly shifting over the next several days which might open a window to the west for Helene?
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2006 Atlantic Season Summary:
Bad, But Not AS Bad.
Life's a Storm, Watch Your Back
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ElizabethH
Meteorologist
Reged: Mon
Posts: 56
Loc: Bay County
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DANG! If you all get a chance and haven't already looked, check on the 18Z . This model run takes Helene right behind Gordon and Flo. But has one after another tropical cyclones rolling off the coast of Africa-all with in 144 hours out...
The good news is they follow the track of the previous storms according to this model run, heading them away from land...
Elizabeth
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harmlc.ath.cx
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Tue
Posts: 54
Loc: Longwood
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The reason for Helene curving out to to sea is the forecasted break that the global models see in the mid-to upper-level ridge that Helene is currenty traveling on the southern edge of.
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allan
Weather Master
Reged: Thu
Posts: 468
Loc: Palm Coast, Florida 29.55N 81.20W
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Yes I have seen that headline from Accuweather myspace and looking at the UKMET model... It may actually happen. Not saying it's gonna but we are in that season. The peak! Noticed that Helene may finally be getting her act together tonight. Nice spin, little vortex core in there. Looks like winds should be bumped up by 11 tonight. Now there is an opportunity for Helene to miss the trough as some models predict as of now. Most would like to curve it NW, only 3 curve it N then NNE. Usual but a westward track may occur as another ridge of High pressure may be building on top of the old one. Making it hard to turn. Though I don't see this going to NE. Probably Florida or Gulf as there is just too many fall fronts that just push these storms away from land. Not putting out bets yet. Still way out there but everythings possible. Especially with all the weird weather stuff that has been happening for the past few years.
Helene Strengthening?? http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t3/sloop-rb.html
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Allan Reed - 18,9,5
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Ryan
Storm Tracker
Reged: Tue
Posts: 281
Loc: Long Island, NY / Stuart, FL
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The 11 PM is out and the track looks better for making a landfall to me. It shifted down a little bit, and with the blockage over the NE moving, you never know
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2006 Atlantic Season Summary:
Bad, But Not AS Bad.
Life's a Storm, Watch Your Back
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typhoon_tip
Meteorologist
Reged: Wed
Posts: 551
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Helena has some short term issues to contend with...
I mentioned this extensively in a previous post and now we are seeing a condition that is related to it, and that is SAL.
The following URL shows the SAL layer as these bright yellow, orange and red regions:
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/wavetrak/winds/m8split.html
If you can located Helena in this imagery, she is situated middle-left. You can see SAL toxic air layer intermingling very close with the interior...
She needs to either finish ingesting this, or have her intermediate banded structures finish wiping it out... That is no easy task for either, because the stable nature of the SAL layer inhibits a good bit of the convection that would do that mixing...
The upshot is that the immediate "bits" of this evidenced substance are rather gossamer. The stuff farther out may be mixed out and/or moved onwards away from effecting on Helena's core before getting that involved.
Until she finishes defeating this poison, she will likely only show slow intensification rates...
As to the track guidance... The 18Z and its tropical based cousin the are good examples... They had her moving wnw and then nw by midnight tonight and clearly that is not taking place... There is still some question as to the ability of the ridge to weaken in time, as the cluster insists... Moreover, there are other types of dynamical models that are offering a stronger ridge suggestion N of Helena, when she is nearing 50W... Not to get to deep into speculation but that is wavering a bit away from high confidence, re'curvature scenario in mind mind.
The likelihood of recurvature is still high, but the question remains to me where that will take place.
John
Edited by typhoon_tip (Thu Sep 14 2006 11:58 PM)
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hurricaneguy
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Fri
Posts: 80
Loc: Greeneville, TN 36.26N 82.72W
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Quote:
The 11 PM is out and the track looks better for making a landfall to me. It shifted down a little bit, and with the blockage over the NE moving, you never know
Looks to me the storm looks like it will miss the U.S. more than ever now. All models show the break in the high pressure and helene going on a fishing trip.
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