cieldumort
Moderator
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1047
Loc: Texas 30.40N 97.80W
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It's had a weak circulation for the better part of 18 hours, or so. However, as stated, the upper-levels are not exactly ideal, and only worse up ahead. Already, the vortex has become fully exposed as of this post, with the convection which was over it's eastern semicircle being blown to shreds and away, and the westernmost convection outrunning the swirl to it's west as the swirl tracks more to the north of west. Additionally, while shear at the moment is not horrendous, it is contending with some dry air, and the shear up ahead is very high. It would truly be a miracle if this were to ever become more than a minimal tropical storm in that environment out there lol
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danielw
Moderator
Reged: Wed
Posts: 3406
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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The satellite images are back from their nightly eclipse. No significant change in 90L over a 2 hour period. Coldest clouds tops are in the Montserrat / Guadeloupe Areas.
Latest and models are progging a NW motion. Strange as it may seem the Low is forecast to dive back to the SW near the Turks and Caicos Islands. This is probably due to the Polar Vortex and associated shortwaves over the next few days.
NHC Text models are split on the direction. BAM are progging Low latitude, and westerly. While the LBAR and A98E are going along the Fish spinner route... or Northerly.
More later. Now back to... nothing much. Nice, isn't it!
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HCW
Storm Tracker
Reged: Fri
Posts: 287
Loc: Mobile,AL
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From the 530 outlook
A Low Pressure System Has Become A Little Better Defined This
Morning Over The Northeastern Caribbean Sea About 50 Miles South Of
Nevis And St. Kitts. Thunderstorm Activity Has Increased And Also
Become Better Organized...and Environmental Conditions Have Become
Somewhat More Favorable For A Tropical Depression To Develop During
The Next Day Or So.
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vpbob21
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Fri
Posts: 76
Loc: Ohio
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Invest 91L is up on the site, in the east Atlantic around 14/35. With all the westerly shear out there, hard to imagine this one developing much, but it's got some decent covection with it this morning.
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Lee-Delray
Weather Master
Reged: Thu
Posts: 429
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Is this the end of 90L?
http://weather.unisys.com/satellite/sat_ir_enh_us_loop-12.html
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HanKFranK
User
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC 33.56N 81.82W
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basin looked better last november. it's going to have a hard time squeezing out another storm, unless that oncoming wave really calms things down a bit in the deep tropics. the deep troughing in the east late this week should be replaced by some ridging in the western atlantic in another week or so, but nothing high amplitude over the continent. the eastward-moving weak storms in the pacific say it all.. el nino is here, probably in a big way.
HF 1706z12october
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cieldumort
Moderator
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1047
Loc: Texas 30.40N 97.80W
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I'm a little impressed. Looks like we've got some slight banding taking place late tonight. Convection is nil in the western semicircle -dried out- and a tad sheared in the east, but it's pretty hard not to be impressed with this. Night vis. loop
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Lee-Delray
Weather Master
Reged: Thu
Posts: 429
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I will agree its been a very quiet year, with all predictions not much will happen. But, please remember the season runs until the end of November. It
only takes one storm to make it a bad season for someone.
Not that there is anything close or any remote chance, but even if a TS or a depression were to hit around Virginia it would cause bad flooding with all the rain they've had this year.
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HCW
Storm Tracker
Reged: Fri
Posts: 287
Loc: Mobile,AL
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Low pressure has formed in the GOM
230 outlook
Discussion:
A 1008 MB SURFACE LOW HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE WESTERN GULF AND IS
PRIMARILY ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL SYSTEM. TROPICAL
DEVELOPMENT IS NOT EXPECTED DUE TO STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WINDS.
THIS SYSTEM IS GENERATING A LARGE AREA OF MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION FROM 20N-25N WEST OF 91W TO INLAND OVER MEXICO...
PARTICULARLY BETWEEN TAMPICO AND TUXPAN. UPPER DIFFLUENCE IS
ENHANCED THIS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. ALSO AT THE UPPER LEVELS...
A BROAD UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE GULF...MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN
AND CENTRAL AMERICA ANCHORED ON A HIGH NEAR VERACRUZ. THIS
FEATURE IS GIVING THE GULF WESTERLY UPPER FLOW WHICH IS
ADVECTING ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE ACROSS THE GULF N OF 23N.
THE LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE MAINLY NORTH DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS WITH STRONG AND GUSTY E TO SE WINDS E OF LOW PRES CENTER
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cieldumort
Moderator
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1047
Loc: Texas 30.40N 97.80W
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I was just going to comment on this feature if no one else had. Even though tropical development is not anticipated (due to strong upper-level winds) it does appear that shear is perhaps a bit less than recently analyzed. Additionally, this morning the diffluence seems to be very helpful in spinning up the surface low . I can see a small chance for development, and really think it wouldn't hurt if this feature were tagged as an Invest, personally. Especially living in Texas, I would very much like it tracked.
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allan
Weather Master
Reged: Thu
Posts: 468
Loc: Palm Coast, Florida 29.55N 81.20W
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You could be right.. This IR image is incredibal to see a strom outwit the shear they expected.. I also found out pressures falling rapidly though has finally slowed a few moments ago. This storm really does need to be watched. An Invest tag absolutely should be needed
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-rb.html ...
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Allan Reed - 18,9,5
Edited by allan (Sat Oct 14 2006 05:51 PM)
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EMS
Verified CFHC User
Reged: Tue
Posts: 23
Loc: St. Petersburg, Florida
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Wind shear forecast looks favorable in the coming days for this system, especially if it continues towards the east. See link below. Curious as to what the mets think about the chances for development. Can't see anything more than a weak tropical storm out of this one, especially with gulf temperatures dropping, and warm waters remaining relatively shallow.
http://www.wunderground.com/data/640x480/atlm_shear.gif
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Storm Cooper
Moderator
Reged: Sat
Posts: 1284
Loc: Panama City Beach, FL 30.22N 85.86W
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As of now no invest on the GOM issue. This is really normal this late in the season with a frontal passage along the Gulf Coast. Rainfall may prove to be an issue but I think a true tropical system event will be hard to achieve right now...
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Hurricane Season 2012 11/5/2
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HCW
Storm Tracker
Reged: Fri
Posts: 287
Loc: Mobile,AL
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Invest 92L is up for this system now .
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Edited by Storm Cooper (Sun Oct 15 2006 08:35 AM)
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cieldumort
Moderator
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1047
Loc: Texas 30.40N 97.80W
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Perhaps normal, but also normal in a sense that the GOM - Caribbean are also something of the preferred development regions during the month of October, the stalled front has seemingly helped spark a formerly benign surface low out there in the BOC, and the diffluence aloft has certainly fanned the flames. With convection waxing and waning and little, if any, turning noted at the surface, this may be it. Still, it appears that shear/upper-level winds are actually marginally supportive for further organization - with the shear by some measures even under 15 knots.
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Beaumont, TX
Storm Tracker
Reged: Tue
Posts: 318
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It is raining here now and looks like more is coming our way. Even though 92L will probably not form into a TS I was wondering what
TX/LA can expect.
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Thunderbird12
Meteorologist
Reged: Thu
Posts: 644
Loc: Oklahoma
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92L probably does not have time to develop as a tropical system, but, in conjunction with the system that is kicking it out to the northeast, it will produce a lot of rain, possibly flooding rains. There will also be an enhanced risk of tornadoes along and east of the system tonight and tomorrow, since it is embedded in a zone of moderate deep-layer shear and it will locally enhance the low-level shear near its path. Shear is a negative influence for tropical development, but is essential for tornado develpment. It will also be a rather windy system in general due to the strong pressure gradient between the large-scale low and the strong high pressure system over the northeast U.S.
Essentially, in terms of sensible weather, 92L will end up being a like a tropical depression or weak tropical storm for SE Texas up through Louisiana, due mostly to the influence of the large-scale features that it is embedded in, rather than the intensity of the system itself.
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cieldumort
Moderator
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1047
Loc: Texas 30.40N 97.80W
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Nice summation you got in reply from Thunderbird. It essentially has everything I would have to say about 92L, as well, although I actually give it a maybe slightly better chance for further development into an officiated system. So far, surface turning is really not noted, and given it's proximity to land and higher shear, if something is to come together, it needs to do so before interaction with one or both of these becomes absolutely prohibitive. Still, they take-away with 92L is probably best stated as "likely similar to a coastal/landfalling wet TD or TS" - and with an enhanced risk of locally damaging wind gusts and possibly tornadoes. In fact, forecast low level helicity has been indicated to be very high with some runs for SE Tx/La.
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HanKFranK
User
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC 33.56N 81.82W
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good notes on the western gulf system. it's a little fuzzy whether the current global runs are seeing the tropical feature itself merging into a new low inland or being tracked as itself.. but while none seem to like a closed low over the gulf, most are showing one track from northeast texas up towards michigan. i guess that could be the system. the rain and tornado threats are likely the big ones... maybe some minor coastal flooding.. all threats whether any type of closed tropical system can form or not. time is limited so i would surmise there won't be a classified system. low confidence there.
the old disturbance that has been blocked from recurving into the westerlies north of puerto rico is now backtracking a little as strong northwesterly winds are shoving it in reverse. a couple of the globals like a hybrid-looking northeastward or northward drifting type of system out of it. environment conditions sorta suck though, and they should continue to do so for the foreseeable future (suck meaning shear is high and a good bit of subsidence is getting fed into the frontal-like low). a couple of other models see a system further east in the atlantic.. by mid october that is usually a no go. with the wave coming there should be a last little push for development, shear or no shear... but it may only produce an odd weakling, or easily nothing at all. el nino sits on the throne, and the shear monster ravages the landscape. which is actually a happy story, if you think the 2006 reprieve from hurricanes is a great thing.
HF 1933z15october
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cieldumort
Moderator
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1047
Loc: Texas 30.40N 97.80W
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Some things about our GOM feature are hard to ignore (example of buoy reports in the area)
It looks like this could be pulling it off tonight. Shear monster, or not, 92l has not only been persistent, but now pressures are really falling off again.
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