Ed Dunham
Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator
Reged: Sun
Posts: 2090
Loc: Melbourne, FL
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Invests 90L and 92L have been dropped and the basin is generally quiet. Tropical waves in the Caribbean Sea and Northeast of Puerto Rico face significant shear and are not likely to develop. West of 40W the has dipped well below 10N, so the season for the central Atlantic is over. The is in an active phase from the Hawaiian Islands to the east coast of Africa - but its not likely to mean much given the overall state of the Atlantic basin.
While it is true that the calendar season runs through November 30th, the basin does not develop systems based on the calendar - it develops systems (or not) based on atmospheric/oceanic conditions. It sure looks to me like we've entered the 'or not' season.
With El Nino firmly in place and the basin taking on a winter-like pattern, an additional storm seems unlikely. The 2006 season was a refreshing break from the hectic seasons that preceded it - a season with some storms to track, but nobody placed too heavily under the impact of a significant storm. If El Nino stays strong for another six months or so (and it might), the next season may also be a bit on the quiet side - but still a bit too early to make that call.
ED
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Wingman51
Weather Guru
Reged: Tue
Posts: 121
Loc: Orlando, FL 28.41N 81.24W
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Yes, this is off Topic, but I feel that it is important to commend the Mods of this site for another excellent job this year. It seems odd to me that with fewer storms this year, we seem to have had more problems with posters. It goes without saying that the moderators on this site (volunteers) go above and beyond the call of duty in controling and diffusing difficult situations. I pray that the remainder of the season stays quiet and we can all take a collective breath and look forward to an interesting winter seanson. Again, THANKS ALL 
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Genesis
Weather Guru
Reged: Wed
Posts: 119
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For a "non-tropical" system that 92L turned into, we're sure getting our butts kicked over here on the gulf coast.
We have winds right now quite close to tropical storm force, with higher gusts. The pounding started last night and has really intensified through the day..
Its all non-tropical - but an incredible storm nonetheless. We'll be in the middle of it for the next 24 hours or so, and if you're further west, you REALLY are getting slammed - Houston has had hurricane-style rainfall amounts out of this thing.
Anyway, if this is our "worst of the year", I'll take it.....
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Invest? Come talk on the Tickerforum
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cieldumort
Moderator
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1023
Loc: Texas 30.40N 97.80W
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And far more than just "close to tropical storm force" has been going on at many more locations right along the coast and just offshore. Please take a quick glance at this station (station=PCBF1), as just one good example!
Pressures western GOM-wide fell sharply overnight, perhaps to as low as below 29.40 in places. And those rainfall totals were not at all limited to just the Houston area. County after county in SE Texas & Louisiana just got clobbered by training thunderstorms overnight last night and throughout the day today. Tornadoes were numerous, and probably even far more plentiful and widespread than what has gone down in the books (as brief tornadoes, especially those that spin up somewhere fairly uninhabited, and especially rain-wrapped as these have been, and even more so yet at night, often fail to be reported - "If a tree falls in the woods" sort of thing-). And speaking of tornadoes, those out at sea were triggering warnings for waterspouts with a ferocity that would make any mariner's head spin faster than 's eyewall.
While not a Tropical Cyclone, the final incarnation of 92L had so much tropical-ish going for it (as it was truly a hybrid kind of feature with an extreme form of baroclinic kick, afterall) that this result does make sense.
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Lee-Delray
Weather Master
Reged: Thu
Posts: 429
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On Wunderground Dr. Maters wrote that was cooking something up in the southern Caribbean Sea later this week that will head North. He did also however say that already blew one for this month and nothing else is picking it up.
Any thoughts?
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Cat 5orBust
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Tue
Posts: 90
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the 2:05 TWD has the area north of puerto rico labeled as a special feature. this area has persisted what seems to be forever. i don't know that conditions are becoming more favorable for development, but the seems to be increasing their chatter about this system.
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ltpat228
Storm Tracker
Reged: Tue
Posts: 201
Loc: Port Saint Lucie FL 27.20N 80.30W
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Quote:
On Wunderground Dr. Maters wrote that was cooking something up in the southern Caribbean Sea later this week that will head North. He did also however say that already blew one for this month and nothing else is picking it up.
Any thoughts?
Yes.
Please see excerpt below from Doctor Masters:
Elsewhere in the tropics
There's nothing going on, anywhere in the world. Later this week, most of the models forecast that a weak tropical storm will form in the central Atlantic northeast of Puerto Rico and move out to sea. Wind shear is expected to be light across the Caribbean and southern Gulf of Mexico most of the week, and the model is forecasting that a tropical storm will form in the southern Caribbean on Friday. The storm is forecast to move northwards, threatening Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, and Cuba early next week. None of the other models are picking up on this, and the has been wrong once before this month on a similar type of forecast. Still, residents of the Caribbean, south Florida, and the Bahamas should keep an eye on possible development later this week.
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Lee-Delray
Weather Master
Reged: Thu
Posts: 429
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I have noticed that is picking something up too, but killing it over Hispanolia.
At best its a week TS, nothing to panic over; just keep an eye on?
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Hurricane29
Weather Guru
Reged: Mon
Posts: 146
Loc: Miami Florida 25.77N 80.25W
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Yes the model continues to show development in the western caribbean.
Nogaps @ 120 hrs
Click for complete run
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ltpat228
Storm Tracker
Reged: Tue
Posts: 201
Loc: Port Saint Lucie FL 27.20N 80.30W
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From Mark Sudduth from HurricaneTrack.com:
UPDATED: 8:45 am EDT, October 17, 2006
NO HURRICANES IN SIGHT
I will certainly run out of creative ways to say it, but so it goes. There are no signs that we will see any hurricane threats anytime soon in the Atlantic. Most of the models develop some kind of low pressure area north of Puerto Rico and the Leeward Islands but then take it out to the northeast fairly quickly. So we might see one more named storm but that should be about it. Conditions are getting more and more hostile each day and water temps are slowly coming down. After the recent rain and severe weather along portions of the Gulf Coast, the weather will improve and there should be nothing to worry about coming out of the tropics. I will post another update tomorrow.
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Lee-Delray
Weather Master
Reged: Thu
Posts: 429
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I agree we're not going to see any big storms; but consistantly is showing something crossing the Keys into the Gulf next week. I'm not say it will be anything, can be wrong, just pointing out the feature.
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Hurricane29
Weather Guru
Reged: Mon
Posts: 146
Loc: Miami Florida 25.77N 80.25W
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Good evening,
In about the next 4-5 days were going to find out if the scenario indeed verifies. 
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HanKFranK
User
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC 33.56N 81.82W
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the needs some company before that caribbean could-be system becomes a real concern. i'd put a little more on the feature north of puerto rico right now, on sheer persistence... but it is a no-threat, low-probability interest.
gfs has some serious amplification progged in the east going into next week... of the trough kind. if you flipped those height anomalies to a mid-winter correspondent system you'd have a southeast snowstorm. for some reason this kind of thing happens in the fall.. but then winter is usually on the mild/wet side in this part of the country. whatever the case, this type of pattern reinforces the lack of potential for any kind of u.s. impact for the remainder of the season.
HF 2157z18october
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Clark
Meteorologist
Reged: Wed
Posts: 1710
Loc: Great Lakes 45.95N 84.55W
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Contrasting 2006 to 2005: one year ago tonight, we eagerly awaited reports from a recon flight into intensifying Hurricane in the NW Caribbean (not to mention having TS Alpha on the way behind it). started out the day as a 982mb system...and would end the day as the storm with the lowest measured pressure in Atlantic basin history.
Here in 2006, shear and troughs dominate the basin without a whole lot of indication that it's going to change before 2007. Such is life under a developing El Nino pattern. Nine storms, five hurricanes, and two majors -- that's about average in the long-term and below-average in the short term. Not gonna complain too much.
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Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)
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allan
Weather Master
Reged: Thu
Posts: 468
Loc: Palm Coast, Florida 29.55N 81.20W
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90L is back in the picture!
http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc06/ATL/90L.INVEST/ssmi/track_vis/thumb/Latest.html
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Allan Reed - 18,9,5
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Ed in Va
Weather Master
Reged: Fri
Posts: 488
Loc: 36.02N 75.67W
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Dr. Masters' post for today:
http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/
90L to the east of PR is showing some life, but expected to turn eventually to the NE...what a surprise!
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Survived Carol and Edna '54 in Maine. Guess this kind of dates me!
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ltpat228
Storm Tracker
Reged: Tue
Posts: 201
Loc: Port Saint Lucie FL 27.20N 80.30W
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http://www.skeetobiteweather.com/picservice.asp?t=m&m=90
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Old Sailor
Storm Tracker
Reged: Mon
Posts: 293
Loc: Florida
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Where did you get 92L son last I seen was 90L..
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Lee-Delray
Weather Master
Reged: Thu
Posts: 429
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Sorry, I read the dates on the wrong; there is no 92L., Would have posted sooner, but I'm too busy eating crow.
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cieldumort
Moderator
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1023
Loc: Texas 30.40N 97.80W
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Yeah, 90L is a little interesting, with a part of it actually nuzzled within a smidgen of low shear, and much of the rest of it enhanced by some diffluence. And in fact, as of my reply, it's looking a little bit more convective.
I'm actually growing more and more interested with the feature out in the Central Atlantic, currently near 14N 33W. Been showing a fair amount of turning, with some sustained convection. Not quite as artificially enhanced by shear, so to speak, either. In fact, the future path of this feature takes it across fairly warm waters in a relatively low shear environment, at least in the near-term, if you can believe it. I'm anticipating an Invest tag getting put up on this by tonight should it's trend of ongoing convection and gentle cyclonic turning continue.
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HanKFranK
User
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC 33.56N 81.82W
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we may have just registered the slowest season since the el nino-crushed year of 1997. since isaac petered out at the beginning of the month a regime of intense shear has kept anything from developing, and it is showing no sign of letting up. hurricane paul recently flashed to life in the eastpac, but is being torn asunder and is unlikely to landfall as a significant tropical cyclone. unseasonably cool weather is starting to dominate the eastern u.s.--it's hard to picture a tropical cyclone getting up here now. a freeze tonight should end the growing season here and over much of the inland southeast. not to say another tropical system is impossible, but it hasn't looked this dead in october for quite some time. a year ago today we were watching on it's way across florida and out into the atlantic, with six more named storms to go and the season finale still more than two months away... this year we're three weeks after the last forgettable fishspinner and doubting anything else.
early predictions for this season were all high. when it comes time to tally the season forecasts we should get the opposite of 2005; i.e., i don't think anybody went as low as the low-average numbers we got. the lack of a hurricane hitting the united states (unless 's borderline landfall on september 1 gets the nudge) is something we haven't seen in a number of years. the atlantic really is variable... it can look like the western pacific at times with swarms of storms coming for months on end, or spit out less than half a dozen tropical cyclones weeks apart over a couple of months and retire until the next season. we got something much closer to the middle this go around, but after last year it looked about as dead as ever.
HF 2251z24october
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Bloodstar
Moderator
Reged: Mon
Posts: 395
Loc: Georgia Tech 33.78N 84.40W
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See some turning, Chances are low, but it's the best looking wave I've seen in a long time. Shear is relatively low and has a good 36 hours before shear will start really jumping up. Modest convection is firing, and the sea temps are warm, so if it can hang together... (probability of a depression in 36 hours.... 10 percent, after that it'll probably get torn apart by shear if it's not together by then).
The wave/trough at 16N 57W is being torn apart by upper level winds.
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TD/TS/HU/MH
19/18/0905 <- My prediction (2013 Predictions)
00/00/00/00 <- Year Totals
http://blog.bloodstar.org
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ltpat228
Storm Tracker
Reged: Tue
Posts: 201
Loc: Port Saint Lucie FL 27.20N 80.30W
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Quote:
See some turning.
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/06/index_ten_m_loop.shtml
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Hurricane29
Weather Guru
Reged: Mon
Posts: 146
Loc: Miami Florida 25.77N 80.25W
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Good afternoon,
Just checking global models this afternoon and some of them seem to be showing some development in the western caribbean in the next couple of days .
Here is the @ 120hrs
Here is the @ 144hrs
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allan
Weather Master
Reged: Thu
Posts: 468
Loc: Palm Coast, Florida 29.55N 81.20W
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Well the quet moment may be going away for a bit. shows a low next to Florida in 144 hours that may develop, has been trying to develop something in the western Carribean and now I believe they might of hit the hot spot. A disturbance that really just popped out is looking very well organized to at least call it an area of investigation. Also lets not forget the wave east of the Islands.. That should have been called 93L for a day now.. The is deff. slacking off this month. This wave may not have much convection buty it has a good circular motion and it deff stands alone and has a cirlcle look to it. Just because a cold front is to the north really doesnt mean they shouldnt put a area of investigation on it. Though better possiblities for this new blow up I believe...
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-rb.html
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Allan Reed - 18,9,5
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stormchazer
Storm Tracker
Reged: Tue
Posts: 315
Loc: Central Florida 27.92N 82.00W
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93L is now up for system East of the Winward Is.
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Jara
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dem05
User
Reged: Wed
Posts: 368
Loc: Port Charlotte, FL
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Hi Gang,
I've been tied up in a lot of things over the last few months...So I haven't been active in posting, but have seen your messages on the forum. 93L is definately looking more interesting. The rotation is there, and the convection seems to be trying. I haven't been able to look at the models tonight, but from a freeze frame standpoint, this storm may not face any significant shear until reaching the Central Carribean. The fromt that gave HF a freeze/frost earlier in the week and the beautiful wx here in Florida seems to be washing out and for the first time in a while, shear is low in the Carribean and east of the Leewards. Hmmm. Down the road, it does look like the next front will pass through Florida, but maybe will not make it as far as I'm not seeing the same type of temp drops in the forecast as I saw with the last front earlier in the week. The temp shifts are significantly less, so I don't think the next system will drop as far south into the Carribean. This one may make a go...in the Leewards and or Eastern Carribean. Otherwise, it is darn tough to speculate on anything else.
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cieldumort
Moderator
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1023
Loc: Texas 30.40N 97.80W
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I'm liking that tiny southern GOM/Yucatan Channel blob a little bit as well, but it still appears to be very limited to the mid-levels, for the most part.
93 could have easily been invest tagged a while ago, but looking at the history of uphill battles against shear this year, I suppose the thinking would be on "why put up an Invest tag for three hours" Well, 93 has certainly proven that train of thought wrong. Occasionally congealing a bit, with some good flare-ups, and already with a crystal clear broad lower level circulation, it doesn't seem like it *should* take much to become a TD - except just that this is 2006 
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Bloodstar
Moderator
Reged: Mon
Posts: 395
Loc: Georgia Tech 33.78N 84.40W
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Well, the cold front died out, which has, for the short term, given the wave a chance to continue and potentially develop. In some ways the sucker looks worse, and in others, better. So I'm going to give it a 25% chance to develop in the next 36 hours. I'm a strong believer that a system, once developed, tends to survive shear that would otherwise prevent a system from developing in the first place (we've seen it before time and time again so I suppose that's not a big shock). So, how much longer does the system have before the window closes? I'm eyeballing about 36 hours of lowish shear, with another 36 hours of low-moderate, there's nothing out there to totally ruin the system. at least not for a few days. But can it concentrate the convection and get going? Certainly the water temprature is warm enough. So, worth watching.
- Mark
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TD/TS/HU/MH
19/18/0905 <- My prediction (2013 Predictions)
00/00/00/00 <- Year Totals
http://blog.bloodstar.org
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allan
Weather Master
Reged: Thu
Posts: 468
Loc: Palm Coast, Florida 29.55N 81.20W
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48 hours of Favorable shear from what I saw on some blogs from wunderground. I was watching this wave for 3 days now. Finally named it an invest area and I believe we may actually have a TD by tommorrow if things continue the way they are. Theres been some models doing an track with this storm. They actually have it surviving in the Carribean which is very typical for storms this time of year. Remember Michele, Lilly, and of course . So we may actually be doing some tracking on what could be number 10?
Edited by Ed Dunham (Fri Oct 27 2006 06:39 PM)
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