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Archives 2000s >> 2007 News Talkbacks

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madmumbler
Storm Tracker


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Posts: 324
Loc: SWFL 26.89N 82.29W
Re: Week Ahead [Re: BillD]
      #75474 - Sat Jun 09 2007 06:49 PM

Bill and Ciel,

Thank you for your responses!

Am I correct then in my thinking that basically if it's not in the Carribbean/GOM/BOC or coming close to the east coast, then don't worry about it until "there's something to worry about?" In other words, watch if you want, but you don't have to pay attention to it?

Part of this is because I homeschool my 11 year old son, and I want to strike a balance between learning what to "watch" and what to "pay attention to" this time of year. We use weather as a large chunk of summer lessons. And part is because I need to educate myself more about what is and isn't "worth paying attention to."

Ciel, you mentioned Carribbean, are you talking that "blob" off of Panama? I thought that was just a blob and nothing to worry about, or is that what you meant, that that particular "blob" isn't something to worry about?

Thanks!

--------------------
Lesli in SWFL.
Friends help you move. Real friends help you move bodies.


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Ed DunhamAdministrator
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)


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Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
Re: Week Ahead [Re: madmumbler]
      #75475 - Sat Jun 09 2007 08:48 PM

Your thinking is correct, and there are a variety of ways to determine the level of interest - or lack thereof.

The first would be the NHC Tropical Weather Outlook - link to the latest discussion is always available at the top of the Main Page.

Another would be the officials, Meteorologists and Weather Analysts on this site - if we haven't commented on a particular feature then I wouldn't get too worried about it. Even when we comment on something, it may only be to note something of casual interest.

Of course if NHC asks NRL to start an Invest on a tropical wave, that usually means that it is a feature that NHC wants to keep an eye on from the standpoint of the potential for future development (and remember, that potential is not always realized).

Finally, we may start a thread in the Storm Forum - often titled as an Area of Interest - when something catches our eye that may or may not develop further. If something develops and threatens, I'll usually post an Area of Concern in the Storm Forum - unless we have it well covered elsewhere on the site - usually the Main Page leadoff article.

Tropical Storm development in the far eastern Atlantic would be a rare event in June - and even if it did form it would still take about 10 days (or longer) to threaten the U.S. mainland, i.e., just something to watch for awhile. A good question, but nothing at all to get excited about out there yet.
Cheers,
ED


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Cat 5orBust
Weather Hobbyist


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Re: Barry Gone, Quiet Again [Re: MikeC]
      #75477 - Sat Jun 09 2007 09:03 PM

93L is up on the navy site.....wave off of africa

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HanKFranK
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Loc: Graniteville, SC 33.56N 81.82W
Re: Week Ahead [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #75479 - Sat Jun 09 2007 09:08 PM

if you're looking for something of interest in the next week, it will just about have to be in the western caribbean. down in the sw part there's a bit of ITCZ convection... aided by divergence southeast of a slowly retreating upper low. some of the forecast models are showing a weak low moving nw from there.... the globals differ in that some kick this energy ne out into the atlantic with the big upper vortex off the east coast drawing it out--others have it sliding nw. none have it doing much in terms of looking like anything but an innocuous little surface low. in any case, it's probably the best chance of anything occurring, and that means we'll probably have another quiet week of waiting for the active part of 2007 to creep closer.
HF 0208z10june


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HanKFranK
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geez [Re: HanKFranK]
      #75480 - Sat Jun 09 2007 09:43 PM

just noticed that invest... you did while i was writing that post. i like to downplay stuff like that this time of year because the chances of it doing anything are marginal to nil. the quick history for systems like that in june is, in 1979 there was a tropical storm that formed and went into the islands before dissipating (formed june 19), and two depressions have graced the waters out there since (a TD that formed june 23, 2000, and an even more surprising TD that formed june 11, 2003. i suppose that there have to have been some earlier systems of this type (prior to the satellite period). just the same, this thing just came off africa, they usually collapse in 24-36 hours, and the historic record is strongly against anything happening.
but then again, this is kinda wow.
HF 0243z10june

Edited by HanKFranK (Sat Jun 09 2007 09:44 PM)


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cieldumort
Moderator


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1635
Loc: Austin, Tx 30.40N 97.80W
Re: geez [Re: HanKFranK]
      #75483 - Sat Jun 09 2007 10:40 PM

Just a note that HF is talking about TDs that we know of during the month of June which formed somewhat close to where 93L is at this time.

Later in the season some Cape Verde storms get cooking from that region. Typically, systems that actually do develop that far east do make the early recurvature, as HF noted above. I was just reviewing 2000's Hurricane Alberto, as a classic example. Wikipedia Link


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cieldumort
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Posts: 1635
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Re: geez [Re: cieldumort]
      #75489 - Sun Jun 10 2007 06:03 AM

Pulsing of the convection, currently in a down-time, but this is fairly common with systems in their gestational phases, and beyond. One thing that has become much clearer overnight is that rather than two low centers competing with each other, which as been somewhat the case all along, it might be that the center now near 10N 23.5W as of this response is the winner. This could allow for some structural reorganization today, about that center.

So, we wait and see if this is actually one to make record books, if even it only just barely gets a name. Recon is not in there, so the best we have for a clue as to whether or not it may get officiated are the T numbers, which are up from doesn't rate to 1.0 now, although I would suggest that the "too weak" was probably an unrealistic appraisal. There's also the tea leaves within TWDs.

I want to see several hours of solid reorganization and some re-deepening of the convection before I truly start to get excited over this one. Regardless, it is still a very impressive feature considering the location, and month.

We have talk about model hints of something in the southern GOM and/or Caribbean. No doubt that pressures are running below climo here already, and overnight pressures have been falling even lower. No surprise, the mid-upper level retrograding TUTT feature seems to be enhancing these surface pressure falls in the region and helping fan some convection, but also while increasing shear in much of the area, as well. No Invest tag here just yet. Still, it bears some watching considering that it's much closer to home than light-years-away 93L is.


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nc_wx_watcher
Verified CFHC User


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Re: geez [Re: cieldumort]
      #75491 - Sun Jun 10 2007 08:27 AM

Cieldumort I suppose this is what you're already talking about :

From a recent edit in the Storm Forum:
It has been requested at least three times during the pre-season that you should not post a discussion or bulletin from the NHC. The current bulletins are always available using the drop-down tabs at the top of the Main Page, i.e., they are already available on the site. It is okay to quote a portion of a bulletin to emphasize a point that you are making in your post.

From the previous edit for this post:
Use the PM feature for general comments/questions

Edited by Ed Dunham (Sun Jun 10 2007 08:58 AM)


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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser


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Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida 30.51N 86.50W
Re: geez [Re: cieldumort]
      #75493 - Sun Jun 10 2007 09:58 AM

Some interesting things to watch today. 93L is a threat to absolutely no one, and the NRL animation isn't even center on it anymore beyond the last static image (and SSD has no floater up for it, or any other system, currently).

It's curious to me that 93L was declared worthy of investigation, but the bunch of clouds near Jamaica wasn't. As long as that huge low off the eastern seaboard remains in place, nothing is going to threaten the east coast, unless it can sneak in to the west of the low.

ETA: Looking at the animation I can find for the Caribbean in general, conditions don't appear all that favorable for development there, but, I still think it should be watched more closely than 93L, since it's in an area that climatologically is favorable, and since, well, it's closer to home than 93L.


--------------------
Hugh

Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)


Edited by Hugh (Sun Jun 10 2007 10:07 AM)


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cchsweatherman
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Re: geez [Re: Hugh]
      #75501 - Mon Jun 11 2007 08:01 AM

You make a very valid point there. The disturbance to thsouth of Cuba has shown signs of life as convection has started to blow up into one huge mass. It should be just as closely monitored as 93L. Time will only tell.

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doug
Weather Analyst


Reged: Mon
Posts: 944
Loc: parrish,fl 27.53N 82.44W
Re: geez [Re: cchsweatherman]
      #75502 - Mon Jun 11 2007 10:38 AM

Had to check everything out this morning for myself as driving to my office today I heard a news cast that was on a Tampa radio station which "teased" a weather cast with the words normal weather week but a tropical system out of the Carribean may bring an increase in moisture by week's end.
Then I see this discussion of the showers south of Cuba...
All that is pretty clearly part of the mid/upper low that retrograded across south Florida Thursday & Friday and is hanging around. I ran a sample of the usual models, and they don't do anything with that over the period of their coverages.
Jeff Masters said the wind shear is too high across the area to support any development anyway should something try to get going from that trough...all looks quiet for this week.

--------------------
doug


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cieldumort
Moderator


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1635
Loc: Austin, Tx 30.40N 97.80W
Re: geez [Re: doug]
      #75503 - Mon Jun 11 2007 02:45 PM

Eh. Just an alternate view-

The Good Dr. Masters also posted that there wouldn't be a single organized tropical system during the entire first few weeks of June ("Due to the high levels of wind shear expected over the next two weeks, I'm forecasting only a 20% chance of a named storm forming during this period") ... within three hours of Barry being named. I thoroughly enjoy his posts, consider him brilliant, but enjoy thinking for myself even more than that. As for models, if we had a nickel for every time the models oversniffed or undersniffed a tropical or subtropical feature, we could probably take a pretty nice vacation on the tropical get-away of our choice.

Having gone there, it's still fairly obvious that the shear -is- a little high, but some of this may be coming down in spots, at least. Additionally, the TUTT which retrograded southwest from Florida is weakening now, and yet the convection continues. As do two apparent surface trofs: one in the southern GOM, and the other in the western Caribbean. In fact, the TUTT is now of the size and intensity where it may do more good to any feeble surface feature which tries to get going, than harm.

I might submit that given the persistence of the convection in the area, the resilience of some surface trofiness, and warm SSTs, moderate shear, while a detriment, may not be a basin killer, either. Furthermore, depending on which shear product you chose to look at for analysis, it's not altogether -that high- Take
CIRA's TCFP shear analysis, for example.

In fact, they currently analyze a slightly positive anomaly bias for TC formation, as shown
here.

Either way, it sure is looking mighty pretty down there right now - with mostly blue skies and only scattered convective clusters, and nothing imminent. 93L is heading that way, but it went poof, although remains as a wave with intermittent very slight convection. No "there" there at the moment, either, and several days away, at best.


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typhoon_tip
Meteorologist


Reged: Wed
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Re: Barry Gone, Quiet Again [Re: MikeC]
      #75511 - Tue Jun 12 2007 12:39 AM

Yet another interesting wave with a clear embedded cyclonic gyre has emerged off of Africa. This is interesting in terms of an early signal. If we get one more of these, it would seem an interestingly high frequency of important disturbances may be establishing.

Currently, there is an area of 24C SST that exists N of approximately 12 degree of latitude, from the west coast of Africa to about 44W. The wave recently discussed, which is still there and still has some cyclonic nature to it, has lost its convection since passing bodily over this region (it currently is situated near 40W/15N and continues to move WNW). Once it arrives back over 26C SSTs, it will be near 45W by 16N; U/A is marginal at best at that location and as others have noted there is some shear from the west (NW), which picks up in intensity about 24 hours thereafter. Would not expect much out of this entity any more than some eye-candy already served.

These are for all intents and purposes, Cape Verde systems though, which means painfully long waits even if they do develop. It also remains climate suggested, unlikely for the time being -- but nothing is impossible.

John


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Ed in Va
Weather Master


Reged: Fri
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Re: Barry Gone, Quiet Again [Re: typhoon_tip]
      #75513 - Tue Jun 12 2007 09:54 AM

Someone posted a day or two ago about a low moving south from GA that could possibly merge with the disturbed weather south of Cuba. Looks like the GA part is on the move:
http://intellicast.com/National/Radar/Current.aspx?animate=true&enlarge=true

--------------------
Survived Carol and Edna '54 in Maine. Guess this kind of dates me!


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madmumbler
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 324
Loc: SWFL 26.89N 82.29W
Re: Barry Gone, Quiet Again [Re: typhoon_tip]
      #75516 - Tue Jun 12 2007 05:36 PM

Quote:

Yet another interesting wave with a clear embedded cyclonic gyre has emerged off of Africa. This is interesting in terms of an early signal. If we get one more of these, it would seem an interestingly high frequency of important disturbances may be establishing.





I'm not sure what you mean by this. Could you please explain it?

Do you simply mean the high number of waves coming off Africa, or is there an atmospheric phenomenon you're referencing contributing to this?

--------------------
Lesli in SWFL.
Friends help you move. Real friends help you move bodies.


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typhoon_tip
Meteorologist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 573
Re: Barry Gone, Quiet Again [Re: madmumbler]
      #75521 - Wed Jun 13 2007 01:14 AM

Quote:

Quote:

Yet another interesting wave with a clear embedded cyclonic gyre has emerged off of Africa. This is interesting in terms of an early signal. If we get one more of these, it would seem an interestingly high frequency of important disturbances may be establishing.





I'm not sure what you mean by this. Could you please explain it?

Do you simply mean the high number of waves coming off Africa, or is there an atmospheric phenomenon you're referencing contributing to this?




Yes to simply meaning a higher number of waves [so far] coming off Africa.

As to whether there is a specific atmospheric phenomenon contributing that is likely yes, too, but I have not performed any analysis [as of yet] to determine why that is, specifically.


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cieldumort
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Re: Barry Gone, Quiet Again [Re: MikeC]
      #75522 - Wed Jun 13 2007 04:35 AM

Looks like pressures are falling area-wide in the Caribbean tonight. Noteworthy, some run-to-run consistency from GFDL, as it has wanted to cook-up a respectable warm core depression of about 1000-1010 mb in the same general location where we witnessed Barry birth. Canadian somewhat agreeable for this, while other models seem to be sticking to the broad trofiness regime of late, more or less. Given tonights widespread and more respectable surface pressure falls coinciding with an increase in nocturnal convection, it could be something. Then again, it could just be a brief regional bad weather enhancement as a wave is pushing on through westward and a few strictly non-tropical impulses approach from the southeastern U.S. If I was to place bets on the region, I would say that something -is- trying to brew down there, if nothing more, and actually appears somewhat similar to how GFDL has been suggesting things would happen.

Old X-Invest 93L, the first true to form Cape Verde eye candy of the season (and early at that!), now the remnants of it existing as a weak but significant wave, looks about to start its approach to the Lesser Antilles later today. A few showers are starting to fire back up along it, at long last. Something to watch, as it likely will produce a few blustery moments and perhaps some showery weather as it passes, if nothing else.

Typhoon Tip's interest in the possible signal of early activity rolling off of western Africa will hopefully treat us to a more intensive analysis from him, or perhaps from a few of the long-time Flhurricane-member mets, should those trends continue. I believe climatology favors such easterly waves meet a very untimely demise this time of year... even those that become bona fide low-level low pressure systems/ borderline numberable features such as 93L briefly became, just bite the dust as they hit the cooler waters out there while ingesting the drier air, all while often encountering greatly increased wind shear, and any other impenetrable obstacles they may face. It's when they sneak up into the Caribbean, such as x93L may do this week, that historically there may be a 1 in 10 (?) to 1 in 20 (?) chance of -something- happening early in a season.


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nc_wx_watcher
Verified CFHC User


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Re: Barry Gone, Quiet Again [Re: cieldumort]
      #75527 - Wed Jun 13 2007 05:29 PM

Since it's already been said about pressures falling in the caribbean it appears that a high is trying to build overhead the NW Caribbean as indicated by the cloud field taking on a more circular appearance. Secondly, the area E of the Bahamas seems to be organising and deep convection is on the increase. Given the proximity of the areas to each other I do not believe that both could develop. If the Bahamas gets going first it will increase shear over the NW Caribbean and inhibit any chance of development there unless it heads off to the NE very quickly. The next 12 to 18 hrs will be interesting to watch especially as surface pressures in the NW Caribbean are relatively low ( 1010.5 here and 1009 to our South at the buoy ). What is any Mets or borad readers take on this scenario?

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dem05
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Loc: Port Charlotte, FL
Re: Barry Gone, Quiet Again [Re: nc_wx_watcher]
      #75529 - Wed Jun 13 2007 09:29 PM

I'd like to make reference to both areas of weather in your post from least likely to more likely to have any shot at development.

Area 1.) The Bahamas...
Not a bad observation to recognize the activity over the bahamas, but this area is under higher levels of shear from an upper level cut off low off of Georgia, which is part of a string of now less than four(4) upper level cut-offs (Which are quite beautiful to watch on the water vapor loop. Link: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/nwatl/loop-wv.html ) ...This cut-off is actually sponsoring thunderstorm development and making this look like something more than it is. However, this development of thunderstorms is not of a nature that is tropical or subtropical. This area is not a candidte for development and as we see during this transitional time of year, such an area of activity will likely pulsate to the North East with little consequence. As for the next point of discussion, which is coming now...interactions of the earlier referenced cut-off lows would affect Carribean and Eastern GOMex development opportunities from an outflow standpoint.

Area 2.) The Northwest Caribbean...
Well, things might get interesting there. Right now, I give a 1 in 4 to a 1 in 3 chance of something popping down there. However, that is more like24-48 hours in my mind. The opportunity for amore favorable outflow environment may happen based on what is seen in the water vapor and there is some indication in the models. Let's tackle the water vapor first (Please revisit the loop link during this discussion). The upper low near the west side of the Yucatan seems some what planted in place. Grow more interested if this heads southwest or west. Second, the upper low referenced off of Georgia in the "Bahamas" part of this post is generally ENE. Whether the cut-off low westofthe Yucatan retrogrades or not, the area around the Yucatan Channel and the easter gulf will be more favorable in 24-48hours. If theupper level cut-off west of theYucatan does retrograde westward or southwest, then there will be a better development opportunity and the odds are no longer a one in four or a one in three bet.

As for the models,on my last quick look all of the with the exception of the NOGAPS and the UKMET indicated some level of vorticity (Yes,at the 850mb level, I like that one too for potentially developing systems) The CMC was very fast in Forward Speed, the GFS was very slow, and the GFDL (TD 3-E Model Run) was almost looking too slow too. All models that demonstrate weak development show vorticities on the weaker end of the scale, so there is some promise of development on the tropical depression to weak tropical storm end if the models remain persistant. At high confidence, rain chances increase for the eastern Gulf interests on days 3-6. On the lower end of confidence, that rain may come with a couple gusts of wind and a name that will be remebered as another helper in the drought busting effort. If something does develop...At this time, something like Barry is as strong as I could imagine if something does develop, but time will tell if anything evolves at all.

Edited by dem05 (Wed Jun 13 2007 10:23 PM)


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danielwAdministrator
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Tropical Discussion~excerpts [Re: dem05]
      #75530 - Wed Jun 13 2007 11:56 PM

TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
218 PM EDT WED JUN 13 2007 (edited~danielw)

...A WANING TUTT OVER THE CENTRAL GULF/ CAMPECHE SOUND...WILL MOVE OVER YUCATAN PENINSULA BY 24 HRS... WITH WEAK VORTEX OVER THE YUCATAN CHANNEL BY 48 HRS. AT 60-72 HRS IT WILL LIFT ACROSS WESTERN CUBA AS IT MERGES INTO THE BASE OF A BROAD TROUGH OVER THE BAHAMAS/ EASTERN USA.

...WITH A STRONG VORTEX ACROSS NORTHERN GEORGIA/ CAROLINAS TO MOVE OFF THE COAST AND NORTH OF THE BAHAMAS BY 24 HRS.
AT 500 HPA THIS VORTEX WILL MERGE/ INTERACT WITH THE REMNANTS OF THE TUTT OVER YUCATAN/ WESTERN CUBA... TO FAVOR/ SUSTAIN AN ELONGATED TROUGH ACROSS WESTERN CUBA
INTO THE YUCATAN.
AT LOW LEVELS A MEANDERING FRONT WILL SLIDE OVER THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS BY 18 HRS...TO REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS GREAT ABACO-GRAND BAHAMA THROUGH 48-54 HRS...THEN WEAKEN AS IT RETROGRESSES.

(edit~danielw: Basically... Florida receives more rain/ rain showers)

...A PROGRESSIVE TROPICAL WAVE IS INITIALIZED ALONG 63W AND SOUTH OF 17N.
THIS WAVE WILL MOVE ALONG 67/68W BY 24 HRS... 71W/72W BY 36 HRS...74W BY 48 HRS...76W/77W BY 60 HRS...78W BY 72 HRS...AND 80W/81W BY 84 HRS.
WINDS ARE TO SURGE ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES FOLLOWING THIS WAVE... WITH GFS PROJECTING 850 HPA (5000ft~) WINDS OF 25-35KT ACROSS THE ISLANDS BY 24-84 HRS.
THE STRONG WINDS WILL SPREAD INTO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH 36-42 HRS... WITH WINDS OF 35-45KT.

(edit~danielw: 850mb winds adjusted to surface levels are just under Tropical Storm force. Using an 80% correction)

CARIBBEAN FORECAST DISCUSSION


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