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Archives 2000s >> 2007 News Talkbacks

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Tropics Guy
Storm Tracker


Reged: Thu
Posts: 252
Loc: Miami, Florida
Re: Invest Soon? [Re: Ed in Va]
      #75858 - Thu Jul 19 2007 02:16 PM

Looks like the area of weather in the NE Carib sea is trying to organize ever so slowly., hard to tell where a LLC may be trying to form at this time. May see an invest on this soon!
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/loop-vis.html

--------------------
Tropical Cyclones: "Mother nature's heat transfer machines"


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ElizabethH
Meteorologist


Reged: Mon
Posts: 56
Loc: Bay County
Re: Invest Soon? [Re: Tropics Guy]
      #75859 - Thu Jul 19 2007 03:13 PM

The CMC has been all over the place so far this season. BUT finally it looks like it may be onto something. The 12Z run today has something coming into NE 108-120 hours out. The GFS and the UK put something (not as aggressive) in there around the same time.

As we enter late July and into the peak of the season, I'm sure there will be several discussions about tropical waves starting with "did you see the CMC this morning?" As of right now, I'm not ready to completely right this Canadian forecast off. I am sure we will all be keeping an eye on things. Just like the mess over the Lesser Antillies...shear is low in the Caribbean and dry air in the mid levels is eroding just a bit. I'm a little nervous about anything moving into those warm warms at this time.


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Ed in Va
Weather Master


Reged: Fri
Posts: 489
Loc:
Re: Invest Soon? [Re: ElizabethH]
      #75860 - Thu Jul 19 2007 03:55 PM

From the afternoon Albany (NYC) NWS discussion:
A SURFACE LOW FORMS NEAR CAPE HATTERAS FRIDAY EVENING AND
MOVES NORTH TO OFF THE DELMARVA COAST BY NOON SATURDAY. AT
THIS TIME IT APPEARS ITS EFFECT WILL BE LIMITED TO SPREADING

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Survived Carol and Edna '54 in Maine. Guess this kind of dates me!


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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
Re: Invest Soon? [Re: Ed in Va]
      #75861 - Thu Jul 19 2007 05:11 PM

hmm... there is more model support today with this feature off the east coast in the coming days... CMC has been all over the place in the last 3-5 days... heck, had a strong TS/Hurr. in the GOM three days ago... ranging from south Florida to way over in Texas...... now with this wave in the Carb. it began taking it straight up the east coast......Hard to think it was going to happen, pressures were just to high off the east coast... and it was the only model showing something... now with the next trough digging down....we might see some trying to form... as far as being tropical... i not quite sure yet.... I think this may be more of a trough merging with the tropical wave and may throw up something along the NE... (more of a frontal low?)

I am now seeing better agreements coming into long range models about a shift in the wx pattern in the long term runs... upper pattern looks more favaroble going into late July into Aug.,... The ridge appears to work its way into the east US... Shear in the atlantic looks to be more favorable too...

For those who like to see the fronts/sea pressures Loop of sea-level pressures and fronts from the HPC... Just gives an idea of the pattern... NOT OFFICIAL forecast...

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www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh



Edited by Storm Hunter (Thu Jul 19 2007 05:22 PM)


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