StrmTrckrMiami
Weather Guru
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Posts: 148
Loc: Manchester, NH
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Not to get off of topic here,
but it appears that recently there has been a Tornado Warning issued for Key West. I was wondering if this would have caused the increased winds here in Miami as well as the darkening clouds or is this that low pressured system developing that is on top of deans high pressure system that people were talking about in erlier posts?? 
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Tracking Storms Since 2004
Miami, Cocoa, Fort Myers and Jacksonville
Currently Reside in New England
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Random Chaos
Weather Analyst
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Loc: Maryland
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The storms over southern Florida are the outer fringes of the feeder band system for Hurricane Dean.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-rb.html
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StrmTrckrMiami
Weather Guru
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Loc: Manchester, NH
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Really? Wow..than this storm must be a large storm that is strong. Thank you for your feedback.
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Tracking Storms Since 2004
Miami, Cocoa, Fort Myers and Jacksonville
Currently Reside in New England
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danielw
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Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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Looks to be a combo of three things causing the storms over FL right now.
Dean's feeder band forming offshore Key West.
The ULL in the Western Gulf
And forcing from the High trying to move in westward from the SW Atlantic.
And then you have the FL sea breeze to add to the mix.
Dean and the ULL are probably adding a decent amount of vorticity (spin) to the atmosphere.
The ULL has kicked up our wind speeds here today and I'm 60 inland.
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nc_tropical_wx79
Weather Guru
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has the ULL slowed down or has it center slowed or stalled out over the gulf? I don't know or know how to find out but I want to know so I can tell others in another wx blog if they are correct or not for saying that.
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W.D. Duncan
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wxman007
Meteorologist
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Posts: 617
Loc: Tuscaloosa, AL
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Quote:
QT,
Took a look at the link you asked about showing potential future tracks for Dean. This link is to Accu-Weather, and while these tracks may contain more and less accurate tools to forecast, there is little detail here to differentiate, thus means nothing. Here is one link from . Click on the link and then hit the "forward" button to start the loop. The superensemble is a fairly new model and often fairly accurate. Others I would consider would include , , UK, and EURO. Here is the link: http://moe.met.fsu.edu/mm5/slp.html
Just to clear up any possible confusion, that is NOT a link to the SENS, that is a link to the Tropical run. SENS data is not currently available to the public.
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Jason Kelley
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Ronn
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Loc: Seminole, FL
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I doubt that the wind is gusting to 173mph in Kingston, considering that the city has remained well north of the eye wall. It appears that Portland Point on the southernmost peninsula of Jamaica came closest to the northern eye wall. Fortunately, the area is a designated protected area and there are no major population centers in this region.
This is about as bad as a hurricane can be in Jamaica without a direct hit. The island is on the worst side of the storm, with the wind and surge being enhanced by the fast forward movement. The storm surge must be incredible on the concave segments of coastline on Jamaica's south and southeast coasts.
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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
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well looks like the SOME of the models are flopping again.. (nuthing unexpected).... they jumped to the north "some"...nothing MAJOR!!! Just BAMS 00Z suite are on north side of the 5pm track... Will see what the rest hold... Still looks like a Double whammy hit for Mexico.
Added a nice sat shot of Dean.
Also heres a Water Vapor loop that might be useful to some
Hurricane Region
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www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh
Edited by Storm Hunter (Mon Aug 20 2007 01:10 AM)
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flahurricane
Weather Hobbyist
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Loc:
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I just saw that 173 mph report on wunderground. I'm assuming that is a gust from the ESE? I'm afraid the damage is going to be catastrophic due to the northeast quadrant hitting Kingston. A day ago it looked as if Dean would track just north of Jamaica which would have spared some of the more densely populated areas. Unfortunately that wasn't the case.
Also, looking at the water vapor of the gulf of mexico it appears the Upper Level Low has slowed over the western gulf. Does anyone else see this? Is the ULL still expected to still track west toward Texas keeping Dean on a more southerly track?
Quote:
Whoa. Weather Underground is reporting 173mph winds in Kingston, Jamaica.
http://english.wunderground.com/global/stations/78397.html
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OUSHAWN
Weather Guru
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Loc: Clear Lake,Tx
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If you look at the link I provided of the water vapor loop you can see where the eastern side of the circulation for the ULL starts right around the Yucatan and where Dean's western circulation starts and you can see there is not much distance between them now. There was quite a bit of distance between them this morning.
http://hurricane.accuweather.com/hurrica...;basin=atlantic
Shawn
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Texas Cane Tracker
Verified CFHC User
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Loc: Tomball, TX
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Being on the dirty side of the storm, there is no doubt Kingston is experiencing some very strong winds, however I do not believe that the 170mph + report is accurate. Keep in mind that the eye of the storm did stay over water and the strongest winds are usually found in the N.E. eye wall.
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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
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Recon is almost into the system now... There just off the coast of Jamica flying west at 10,000ft
At 01:04:00Z (last observation), the observation was 32 miles (52 km) to the SSE (148°) from Kingston, Jamaica. Winds on SFMR are around 45mph.
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www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh
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JustMe
Weather Guru
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Loc: Orlando, Florida
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Conditions at Aug 19, 2007 - 09:00 PM EDTAug 19, 2007 - 08:00 PM CDTAug 19, 2007 - 07:00 PM MDTAug 19, 2007 - 06:00 PM PDTAug 19, 2007 - 05:00 PM ADTAug 19, 2007 - 04:00 PM HDT
2007.08.20 0100 UTC
Visibility less than 1 mile
Sky conditions overcast
Weather Heavy rain showers, squalls
Cumulonimbus clouds observed
ob MKJP 200100Z 110P99KT 0000 +SHRASQ BKN008 SC010CB OVC080
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24 Hour Summary
Time
EDT (UTC) Temperature
F (C) Dew Point
F (C) Pressure
Inches (hPa) Wind
MPH Weather
Latest 9 PM (1) Aug 19 heavy rain showers, squalls
8 PM (0) Aug 19 77 (25) 75 (24) 29.56 (1001)
7 PM (23) Aug 19 75 (24) 75 (24) 29.47 (0998)
6 PM (22) Aug 19 29.35 (0994)
5 PM (21) Aug 19 29.29 (0992) SE 81
4 PM (20) Aug 19 77 (25) 71 (22) 29.32 (0993) E 28
3 PM (19) Aug 19 78 (26) 71 (22) 294.80 (9983) N 9 rain
2 PM (18) Aug 19 80 (27) 73 (23) 29.56 (1001) NNW 12 light rain
1 PM (17) Aug 19 80 (27) 69 (21) 29.62 (1003) N 16 light rain
Noon (16) Aug 19 77 (25) 73 (23) 29.65 (1004) WNW 10 light rain
11 AM (15) Aug 19 77 (25) 73 (23) 29.68 (1005) W 9 light rain
10 AM (14) No Data
9 AM (13) Aug 19 80 (27) 73 (23) 29.71 (1006) N 8 light rain
8 AM (12) No Data
7 AM (11) No Data
6 AM (10) No Data
5 AM (9) Aug 19 84 (29) 71 (22) 29.71 (1006) NNW 12
4 AM (8) Aug 19 No Data
3 AM (7) Aug 19 82 (28) 69 (21) 29.74 (1007) E 5
2 AM (6) Aug 19 82 (28) 71 (22) 29.74 (1007) N 14
1 AM (5) Aug 19 84 (29) 66 (19) 29.80 (1009) NNE 3
Midnight (4) Aug 19 No Data
11 PM (3) Aug 18 84 (29) 73 (23) 29.83 (1010) SE 5
Oldest 10 PM (2) Aug 18 84 (29) 75 (24) 29.83 (1010) ENE 7
Time
EDT (UTC) Temperature
F(C) Dew Point
F(C) Pressure
Inches(hPa) Wind
(MPH) Weather
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
The information presented here is taken from products produced by the U.S. National Weather Service and other national and international agencies
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I have survived Betsy Miss, Camille Miss., Andrew Fl, Charley Fl, Frances FL, Jeanne FL,
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JustMe
Weather Guru
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Posts: 128
Loc: Orlando, Florida
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this was kingston Jamica
http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/MKJP.html
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I have survived Betsy Miss, Camille Miss., Andrew Fl, Charley Fl, Frances FL, Jeanne FL,
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weathernet
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 296
Loc: Elsewhere
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Jason,
Thanks for the heads up; can you elaborate on some of the model distinctions between 's SENS and the ? I would be curious as to how each distinct model carried Dean during the last 2-3 days. Moreso, would be curious as to the primary differing variables which seperates each from the other.
Andy
The is a dynamic model, like the , NAM, etc...it is the 5th version of the Penn State NonHydrostatic Mesoscale Model (which itself is the basis of the NAM-WRF if I am not mistaken). The SENS is not a distinct model, its an ensemble, which means it takes other model output, averages and weights the output and then comes up with a forecast. It is similiar in concept to the CONU and GUNS in the ATFC fields, but uses a more advanced weighting and averaging system.
Edited by wxman007 (Mon Aug 20 2007 02:10 AM)
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dem05
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Loc: Port Charlotte, FL
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Post cancelled due to reply reassignment under another topic.
Edited by dem05 (Mon Aug 20 2007 01:50 AM)
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Tropics Guy
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 252
Loc: Miami, Florida
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Sorry if this is off the topic of Dean which is obviously a very serious situation, but a new area of concern is rapidly developing northeast of the leewards. Looks like the model was right in picking up a developing low, and now some of the other models are hinting at a closed low developing in the bahamas during the next few days. The blow-up of convection northeast of the leewards has been impressive this evening, and there appears to be a mid-level spin around 21N 55W.
Conditions will only get better for this to develop in the coming days while it moves W or WNW towards the Bahamas then possible towards the EC of FL. Think we will have a new invest tomorrow.
http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/huirloop.html
TG
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Tropical Cyclones: "Mother nature's heat transfer machines"
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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
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Vortex out... post removed
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www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh
Edited by Storm Hunter (Mon Aug 20 2007 01:53 AM)
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BillD
User
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Posts: 398
Loc: Miami
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New vortex is out, but you picked up one from yesterday. Here is the new one. Pressure at 926. As I suspected from recent IR pics, there is only one eyewall now.
URNT12 KNHC 200150
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL042007
A. 20/01:31:00Z
B. 17 deg 28 min N
078 deg 18 min W
C. 700 mb 2466 m
D. 121 kt
E. 073 deg 16 nm
F. 160 deg 125 kt
G. 075 deg 021 nm
H. 926 mb
I. 7 C/ 3049 m
J. 16 C/ 3044 m
K. 16 C/ NA
L. CLOSED
M. C16
N. 12345/7
O. 0.02 / 2 nm
P. AF304 1104A DEAN OB 05
MAX FL WIND 125 KT E QUAD 01:25:00 Z
Bill
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Random Chaos
Weather Analyst
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Posts: 1024
Loc: Maryland
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[delete me - BillD beat me to it]
Edited by Random Chaos (Mon Aug 20 2007 02:03 AM)
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