CDMOrlando
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Loc: seminole cnty florida
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The Tropical Analysis and Forecast Branch has joined with and/or continued sounding the warning bell that - Monterey started about 92L. TAFB
Does anyone have a feel for how often the or the Navy gives these warnings only to have nothing come of it (1 in 10), or do they wait until they feel that it is 50/50.
Edited by CDMOrlando (Mon Aug 20 2007 10:14 PM)
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charlottefl
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Sometimes it takes a while for the winds to catch up with pressure falls. Especially if the pressure has been dropping rapidly.
In the past several hours the pressure has dropped 6mb, which is considered rapid intensification. The winds will catch up shortly.
Edited by charlottefl (Mon Aug 20 2007 10:16 PM)
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Random Chaos
Weather Analyst
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Loc: Maryland
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Recon now reports pressure down to 916mb.
Also indicated is a concentric eyewall again.
Winds haven't increased.
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Hugh
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Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida
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Quote:
Recon now reports pressure down to 916mb.
Also indicated is a concentric eyewall again.
Winds haven't increased.
What is the mean pressure (whatever the term is) for the NW Caribbean right now? The relative pressure is really what determines storm strength.
Edit: I just looked at the latest IR loop. Dean continues to amaze me, and I find it *extremely* difficult to believe - recon reports not withstanding - that there are no sustain winds within this monster that are > 170, let alone 150.
Edit2: Dean is now as strong as a Cat 4 'cane can be: "near 155mph" per the 8pm advisory.
Edit3: Pressure also down, to 915mb, according to the 8pm advisory.
It's almost guaranteed to be Cat 5 at 11pm, in my opinion.
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Hugh
Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)
Edited by Hugh (Mon Aug 20 2007 11:55 PM)
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Random Chaos
Weather Analyst
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NHC has the storm at 155mph now; only 1 mph off of Category 5. Recon found 155kt winds at flight level. No concentric eyewalls found this time. Pressure is back up to 918mb.
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Hugh
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Quote:
NHC has the storm at 155mph now; only 1 mph off of Category 5. Recon found 155kt winds at flight level. No concentric eyewalls found this time. Pressure is back up to 918mb.
Are they flying at a different altitude than they've been flying? 155 * .9 (the deduction they've been using for Dean) = 139.5kts at the surface, which is 160.425mph according to my math. If I do an 80% reduction I only get 142mph at the surface (and 85% reduction gives 151mph).
Edit: Where are you seeing 918mb pressure? link still shows 915, with the 155kt flight level winds.
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Hugh
Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)
Edited by Hugh (Tue Aug 21 2007 12:19 AM)
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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser
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Quote:
155kt at flight level = 155*1.15=178.25mph*.9=155.025. It's a 90% reduction from flight level.
I did the math three times, both ways - Using Windows Calculator 
178.25 * .9 = 160.425
172.25 * .9 = 155.025, though. That would be 150kt flight level winds.
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Hugh
Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)
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Random Chaos
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I'm not doing 90% reduction Hugh. I'm taking what the said was the max surface winds in the 8pm advisory after the recon data showing the 155kt FL winds was out. I guess they think it's more like 85% reduction.
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lunkerhunter
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Loc: Saint Augustine, FL
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Hugh, these are the 3 reasons why they kept it at 150mph:
1. COMMUNICATIONS PROBLEMS ARE PREVENTING THE RECEIPT OF MOST DATA FROM
THE AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT THIS AFTERNOON.
2. EARLIER IN THE FLIGHT...A PEAK SFMR WIND OF 123 KT WAS OBSERVED.
3. CLASSIFICATIONS FROM AND SAB WERE 127 KT AT 18Z.
Essentially they chose not to extrapolate.
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Storm Hunter
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Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
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Well looks like Dean is goin to be retired.. First Hurricane of 2007 is now a Cat. 5.
URNT12 KNHC 210029
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL042007
A. 20/2346Z
B. 18 DEG 17 MIN N
085 DEG 00 MIN W
C. 700 MB 2359 M
D. 121 KTS
E. 318 DEG 9 NM
F. 047 DEG 156 KTS
G. 318 DEG 08 NM
H. 914 MB
I. 9 C/ 3047 M
J. 21 C/ 3053 M
K. 17 C/ NA
L. CLOSED WALL
M. C16
N. 12345/7
O. 0.02/2 NM
P. AF303 1404A DEAN 0B 30
MAX FL WIND 162 KT NW QUAD 2358Z
**AF303, seemed like they had communication problems the other day** the HDOB is coming and going... ***
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www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh
Edited by Storm Hunter (Tue Aug 21 2007 12:47 AM)
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Storm Cooper
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HURRICANE DEAN TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042007
835 PM AST MON AUG 20 2007
DATA FROM THE AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT CURRENTLY
INVESTIGATING HURRICANE DEAN INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS
HAVE INCREASED TO 160 MPH...MAKING DEAN A POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC
CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE.
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Hurricane Season 2017 13/7/1
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Psyber
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Loc: Ontario, Canada
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Quote:
HURRICANE DEAN TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042007
835 PM AST MON AUG 20 2007
DATA FROM THE AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT CURRENTLY
INVESTIGATING HURRICANE DEAN INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS
HAVE INCREASED TO 160 MPH...MAKING DEAN A POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC
CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE.
Unbelievable. And he's intensifiying. Makes you wonder what he would have topped out at if the Yukitan Penninsula wasn't in the way. :/ It's not surprising...talk about perfect conditions for a perfect storm.
Cat3 back over water intensifying to a strong Cat4 before landfall?
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The safest way to deal with a potential Hurricane hitting you...is to leave and just not be there at all.
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lunkerhunter
Storm Tracker
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Loc: Saint Augustine, FL
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93L at 10N 40W?
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anomaly18
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Loc: Galveston, TX
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167mph?
Storm DEAN: Observed By Air Force #303
Storm #04 in Atlantic Ocean
Maximum Flight Level Winds Were 162KT (186.3mph 300.0km/h) In NW Quadrant At 2358Z
Estimated Max Surface Winds 145.8KT (167.7mph 270.0km/h) *
Date/Time of Recon Report: Invalid Date (Invalid Date)
Position of the center: 18° 17' N 085° 00' W (18.3°N 85.0°W) [See Map]
Minimum Height Measured At Standard Level Of 700mb: 2359m (Normal: 3011)
Surface Winds Were Estimated At: 121KT (139.15MPH 224.1km/h)
Estimated Surface Winds Were Measured 9nm (10.35miles) From Center At Bearing 318°
Maximum Flight Level Winds Near Center Were 156KT (179.4mph 288.9km/h) From 047°
Maximum Flight Level Winds Were Measured 8nm (9.2 miles) From Center At Bearing 318°
Minimum pressure: 914mb (26.99in)
Eye Wall Was Characterized As Being: CLOSED WALL
Eye Form Was Characterized As Being Circular , 16nm (18.4 mi 29.6km) wide
Center Fix Established Using: Penetration Radar Wind Pressure Temperature
Center Fix Established At Level(s): 700mb
Navigational Accuracy Measured At 0.02nm
Meteorological Accuracy Measured At 2nm
* = Estimated Surface Winds are assumed 90% of Max Flight Level Winds
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Storm Hunter
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I think there just going with Cat 5 at 160mph and pressure of 914mb.
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www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh
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Storm Hunter
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Just watched some NASA news on the shuttle... it is schedule to land at around luch time tomorrow... 1 chance (201 Burn) would almost bring it south to north along Florida... 2 try about 2 hrs later (202 Burn)... would bring it over the Yucatan... which they est. the shuttle would pass over Dean at an Alt. of 192,000ft or about 35 miles above the surface.... Unfortunate the shuttle would be in a right to left back, and the crew would not be able to see Dean below... Man that would of be a wild ride, if they had to take 2nd try to land at . (of course they would be way above Dean!)
http://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/shuttle/shuttlemissions/sts118/landing.html
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www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh
Edited by Storm Hunter (Tue Aug 21 2007 01:08 AM)
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WXMAN RICHIE
Weather Master
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Loc: Boynton Beach, FL
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Hurricane Dean has now made the top 10 of All-Time based on lowest pressures ever in the Atlantic Ocean.
Also, the last category 5 in the Atlantic to hit land as a cat. 5 was Hurricane Andrew back 15 years ago. Unfortunately, we are witnessing history once again in the tropics.
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Another typical August:
Hurricane activity is increasing and the Red Sox are choking.
Live weather from my backyard:
http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstation/WXDailyHistory.asp?ID=KFLBOYNT4
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weather999
Weather Watcher
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Loc: southwestern ontario, canada
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Well. After many thoughts through the past few days of "Dean will become Cat 5 next advisory," Dean's finally reached the not-so-illusive mark (during the past few years) of Cat V--pray that all that will be well in Mexico/Belize.
Also, predictions on intensity @ landfall? I'll go with 155 or up..
Finally, any chance that Dean could emerge from western mexico and retain a circulation and then re-develop in the E. Pacific?
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lunkerhunter
Storm Tracker
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Loc: Saint Augustine, FL
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not seeing the "white donut" on Dean yet, as we did with the CAT 5's of 2005. NASA
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vineyardsaker
Weather Guru
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Loc: New Smyrna Beach, FL
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I am just curious why there were plenty of links posted for Jamaica but none for Yucatan or Mexico.
Could you please put some up?
Many thanks!
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Charley(eyewall), Ivan, Jeanne, Dennis, Wilma, Irma, Ian (eyewall), Nicole
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