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Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 33 (Zeta) , Major: 96 (Laura) Florida - Any: 783 (Michael) Major: 783 (Michael)
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Archives 2000s >> 2007 News Talkbacks

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Beaumont, TX
Storm Tracker

Reged: Tue
Posts: 318
Re: Enter Felix, Stage Right [Re: CoconutCandy]
      #77595 - Fri Aug 31 2007 08:22 AM

Well, I've had faith in 94L since the beginning and it looks like he might be getting his act together this morning. NHC says a depression could
form later this morning. I wonder if we'll have Felix from this one.

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Re: Tropics Acting Up Again [Re: MikeC]
      #77596 - Fri Aug 31 2007 08:31 AM

94L soon to be Felix has continued to develope overnight and first visible shots show a build up of thunderstorms to the west of what looks to be a center and some developing to the north and east as well. I would expect to see at least a TD at 11am or maybe waiting for recon reports at 2pm. No matter I do believe Felix is on its way. As for the southern islands this will be a rain maker more than anything. I do believe this system will move w-nw over then next 24-48 hours into the central carribean. The diffrence with this system from Dean is the strong high to Dean's north is not there this time so a more northern direction is possible. How much is the question. A trough over the middle of the nation next week might open up the gulf for business so right now its too early to determin exactly how this will unfold. The disturbed weather east of the Bahamas may also play a roll as well as the approaching front off the east coast over the weekend. So theres alot to look at over the next few days as this system developes. Right now the southern islands need to get ready for possible heavy rain.

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Weather Analyst

Reged: Mon
Posts: 991
Loc: parrish,fl
Re: Tropics Acting Up Again [Re: Unregistered User]
      #77598 - Fri Aug 31 2007 08:53 AM

Probably a TD for sure based on the signature it is making, and while there is still some SW-NE blow off, shear does not seem as pronounced as yesterday. Interesting synoptic pattern ahead of it. It looks like an "Omega" block over the Carribean which is not moving too much. I defer to the experts on that.


Edited by doug (Fri Aug 31 2007 08:53 AM)

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Weather Watcher

Reged: Tue
Posts: 34
Re: Tropics Acting Up Again [Re: doug]
      #77600 - Fri Aug 31 2007 09:06 AM

Good morning! Based upon my latest observations and the latest data from the Dvorak numbers and the NAVY website, it would almost appear certain that the NHC will upgrade 94L and 96L to Tropical Depressions by the 11AM update. 94L has caught my eye this morning as it appears to have begun to enter the favorable environment the NHC has been referring to over the past several days. About the potential future track of this system, I find it hard to believe that this will move in the same general direction as Dean due to the fact that there is a deep trough creating a large weakness in the high to 94L's north. Due to this fact, I would have to advice all the Greater Antilles to monitor this system. By the end of the day, I am expecting to see at least Tropical Storm Felix, if not Gabrielle also. I will be back around 11 for the next update.

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