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Archives 2000s >> 2007 News Talkbacks

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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
Re: NHC Discussion [Re: Random Chaos]
      #77845 - Mon Sep 03 2007 01:53 AM

Quote:

I should be sleeping, but we have a new vortex recon coming, so I decided to stay awake to read it


303
URNT12 KNHC 030538
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 03/05:11:00Z
B. 13 deg 58 min N
074 deg 44 min W
C. 700 mb 2568 m
D. NA kt
E. NA deg 000 nm
F. 235 deg 132 kt
G. 127 deg 008 nm
H. 937 mb
I. 7 C/ 3041 m
J. 24 C/ 3076 m
K. 7 C/ NA
L. CLOSED
M. C10

N. 12345/ 7
O. 0.03 / 1 nm
P. AF305 1006A FELIX OB 07
MAX FL WIND 147KT NW QUAD 05:17:50Z
STADIUM EFFECT





Something to notice.... the Eyewall is shrinking... gone done about 2 miles in diameter in about 6-7 hrs... another is.. look at the difference in flt lv temp between outside the eye and inside the center!

--------------------
www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh



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danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3518
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Vortex [Re: Storm Hunter]
      #77846 - Mon Sep 03 2007 02:10 AM

Item " J " 24C inside the Eye at nearly 10000 feet!
That's 75F at 10000 feet.
Felix is really vacuuming up some warm air from below!


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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
Re: Vortex [Re: danielw]
      #77848 - Mon Sep 03 2007 02:16 AM

Quote:

Item " J " 24C inside the Eye at nearly 10000 feet!
That's 75F at 10000 feet.
Felix is really vacuuming up some warm air from below!




Opps! I forgot to add that to my last post... going over some HDOB data... from NOAA2... they were at 7,300ft with air temp of 76.3F at 23:03:00Z 13.73N 72.68W.... AF recon is heading south on the west side of the storm about to turn inward.

--------------------
www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh



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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
Re: Vortex [Re: Storm Hunter]
      #77849 - Mon Sep 03 2007 03:04 AM

Recon just went through eye! at 06:59:00Z 14.08N 75.30W

Waiting on vortex!!! winds didn't seem that too high on inbound... ... **air temp at 2,565 meters (~ 8,415 feet) was 78.8°F... recon did a weird flight path once in the eye... looks like they focused on the eastern part of the eye... and went out to the NE.. with what looks like the highest flt. lvl wind From 145° at 142 knots (From the SE at ~ 163.3 mph)

URNT12 KNHC 030730
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 03/06:57:50Z
B. 14 deg 02 min N
075 deg 19 min W
C. 700 mb 2556 m
D. NA kt
E. NA deg 000 nm
F. 325 deg 121 kt
G. 223 deg 006 nm
H. 936 mb
I. 9 C/ 3051 m
J. 26 C/ 3047 m
K. 12 C/ NA
L. CLOSED
M. C10
N. 12345/ 7
O. 0.02 / 2 nm
P. AF305 1006A FELIX OB 13
MAX FL WIND 155 KT NW QUAD 07:07:50Z

Pressure about the same... seems like felix may be getting close to an ERC.... Don't see double eyewalls, but pressure seems to have slowed down and eye is contracting...

--------------------
www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh



Edited by Storm Hunter (Mon Sep 03 2007 03:34 AM)


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dem05
User


Reged: Wed
Posts: 368
Loc: Port Charlotte, FL
Re: Vortex [Re: Storm Hunter]
      #77851 - Mon Sep 03 2007 04:56 AM

Just a couple footnotes and helpful links while going into the new day. The satellite presentation says enough for Felix...it is presently on a more west than west northwest course at this time. Amore southern track is apparently the way to go as the storm has headed more to the west over night.

The steering data (Which will update sometime during the next hour) would indicate that there is a High pressure steering flow due to the north of Felix. There is a secondary ridge in the eastern Gulf of Mexico. In between, there is a slight breakdown in the steering flow due to the ULL off of Miami. The overall effect of the ULL will be minimal, but will probably lead to a slow down in Felix's forward speed in about 12-16 hours...In fact, Felix may have slowed down by a Mile Per Hour in forward speed now...But that is tough to guage due to the satellite eclipse. The steering layer for a hurricane with pressures below 940mb is generally the 200-700mb level. I am attaching the link for that here: http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8dlm6.html (It updates every 3 hours)

Yesterday's discussion from the NHC also featured an upcomming trough of low pressure. I am attaching a great link at the end of this paragraph in the event that you may want to follow it's evolution throughout the day. The trough is currentlyappraoching the Pacific coast and will likely turn Henrietta in the Pacific on amore northerly course. As far as interests go with Felix...so far, I'm not sure that this will be much of a player. There is a solid ULL embedded in the trough, it is moving at a good clip, but it is sliding ENE ward now...Also, at this time, the trough does not seem to be a digging trough. I could speculate that the trough would have to be a "digging" troughin order to get enough influence going late in the period. Lot's can change as the pattern evolves and as the NHC has advertised with respect to this trough...As for now, it lookslike the overall affects will be slight. Link to Goes West Vapor Loop: http://www.ssec.wisc.edu/data/west/animation/goeswestwv.html

Edited by dem05 (Mon Sep 03 2007 05:01 AM)


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Random Chaos
Weather Analyst


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1024
Loc: Maryland
Re: Vortex [Re: dem05]
      #77853 - Mon Sep 03 2007 08:21 AM

This thing is still strengthening.

Using 90% stepdown: 167MPH surface winds
Using SFMR surface value: 161MPH surface winds

Official 8am from NHC is 165MPH.

---

449
URNT12 KNHC 031205
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL042007
A. 03/1109Z
B. 14 DEG 09 MIN N
76 DEG 40 MIN W
C. 700 MB 2582 M
D. 140 KT
E. 120 DEG 05 NM
F. 190 DEG 130 KTS
G. 120 DEG 052 NM
H. 938 MB
I. 12 C/ 3072 M
J. 25 C/ 3023 M
K. 12C/ NA
L. CLOSED WALL
M. C08

N. 12345/7
O. 1/2 NM
P. N0AA32 1106A FELIX OB 09 AL062007
MAX SFMR WND 140 FROM SE QUAD
MAX FL WIND EXITING TO NW 162KTS AT 1111Z


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LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1236
Loc: South Florida
Re: Vortex [Re: Random Chaos]
      #77854 - Mon Sep 03 2007 08:30 AM

Yes, Felix is beginning to remind me of Mitch .. just keeps getting stronger.

Hoping steering current behind Felix does not slow up just before landfall. Have read a few things to indicate it might but... a big but.. I am relying on the high it is carrying along will provide it's own steering current and just keep going without stalling out.

Either way... going through an intensification phase and it has lots of running room to go today to strengthen further.

--------------------
http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/


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Random Chaos
Weather Analyst


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1024
Loc: Maryland
Re: Vortex [Re: LoisCane]
      #77855 - Mon Sep 03 2007 08:35 AM

Here's a good view of Felix's environment. Click on the SST image switch from conditions to anamolies and back again. Quickscat has a similar switch function.

http://www.ssmi.com/cyclone/cyclone.html?year=2007&storm=felix&ob=latest

It looks to me from that the it still has even warmer water to go over before it reaches the coast.

We really need a microwave pass to see if a 2nd eyewall is starting to form. Recon didn't report concentric eyewalls, but they only report that if the 2nd wall is over 50% formed.

Edit: Last couple frames on IR show the eye shrinking dramatically.

Edited by Random Chaos (Mon Sep 03 2007 09:39 AM)


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doug
Weather Analyst


Reged: Mon
Posts: 959
Loc: parrish,fl
Re: Vortex [Re: Random Chaos]
      #77856 - Mon Sep 03 2007 09:57 AM

The last visible suggests that an eyewall replacement is under way. Or, perhaps it has peaked...lets hope so.
I remain interested in the patterns surrounding the system...the large upper trough that has preceded it has retrograded into the western GOM. However that may be as far as it goes as a robust high seems to be building northward from Mexico into Texas. The ULL over the Florida straits has not moved west with Felix as the one associated with Dean did. It has flattened into a SW-NE trough or so it appears. The pattern suggests a weakness near the coast line of expected land fall, and northward. I do expect the system to miss the northern Hounduran coast line on a direct hit and see land fall closer to Belize City. I am greatful the models seem so confident to that general point. But I think beyond that some questions remain.

--------------------
doug


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LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1236
Loc: South Florida
Re: Vortex [Re: doug]
      #77857 - Mon Sep 03 2007 10:13 AM

199 mph flight level winds. That's some flight to be on and remember.

While reading everything written about the area off the Carolinas I keep wondering if that is what is pulling the models to the right on Invest 98.

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200798_model.html#a_topad

I mean.. as much as I am watching Felix it is hard not to peak on 98 and wonder if now that it is past the main influence of SAL if it can or will fire up today. Model run from this morning makes it worth wondering on.

--------------------
http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/


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nc_tropical_wx79
Weather Guru


Reged: Fri
Posts: 123
Re: Vortex [Re: LoisCane]
      #77858 - Mon Sep 03 2007 10:42 AM

Lois Cane or anyone else who may know is the area off the Carolina's still frontal or is it an unattached low?

--------------------
W.D. Duncan


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scottsvb
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1153
Loc: fl
Re: Vortex [Re: nc_tropical_wx79]
      #77860 - Mon Sep 03 2007 11:32 AM

There is a attached low from a old frontal boundry there. Its not completly warm core but I expect that to change pretty soon. Alot of dry air came in off the mainland...but once the trough comes by to its N tomorrow.I would expect the system to develop as a ridge slides by to its N during mid-late week.

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LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1236
Loc: South Florida
Re: Vortex [Re: scottsvb]
      #77875 - Mon Sep 03 2007 05:18 PM

I don't for sure. Some maps I have seen show a Low.. looks attached still to me.

NRL is investigating it... so http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.htm

Suppose we will know soon enough if it can swim on it's own.

Many dramas on NRL today... 98 still there as well.

--------------------
http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/


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