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Archives 2000s >> 2007 News Talkbacks

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MikeCAdministrator
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Loc: Orlando, FL
Tropical Storm Gabrielle heads for North Carolina
      #78056 - Fri Sep 07 2007 10:50 PM

12:20PM EDT 9 September Update
Gabrielle has made landfall near Cape Lookout National Seashore around 11;45AM.

The wave northeast of the Caribbean is now being tracked as 92L being discussed here.. 1 Storm, 3 invests being tracked now.

The most immediate concern, outside of Gabrielle, is 90L in the Gulf, but it doesn't look like it'll develop much. 92L initial model runs suggest it is something that we in Florida and the southeast may have to watch later in the week.

9:38AM EDT 9 September Update
We're recording Mark Sudduth's (Hurricane Track.com) webcam tower on Hatteras along with the Morehead city radar.
You can see these At this link.

Also the Central Atlantiic (Discuss Here) and Gulf disturbance (being talked about Here) are being tracked as 91L, and 90L respectively.



Early 9 September Update
Late in the afternoon on Saturday (Sept. 8), Gabrielle was judged to have acquired tropical characteristics and was re-classified as a tropical storm. It should make landfall along the east coast of North Carolina sometime during the day on Sunday, heading north and northeast from there. Briefly gusty winds and 1-3" rain totals look to be the biggest meteorological effects from the poorly-organized tropical system; beach erosion looks to be the largest overall effect.

The disturbance in the Gulf of Mexico was designated as 90L late on Saturday. It is currently very disorganized and is no imminent threat for development. We'll watch it for now, along with a couple of tropical waves/lows in the central Atlantic. If you'd like to discuss any of these features for now, please check the Storm Forum and/or the Forecast Lounge.

8 September Update
Gabrielle remains a Subtropical Storm with 45MPH winds and a pressure of 1011 mb, there are some signs that Gabrielle may make the transition to a fully tropical storm later today or tonight.

The system is still rather disorganized as a whole, which should keep strengthening to a minimum, but it is forecast to become a stronger Tropical Storm by the time it nears the Carolina Coastline. Although it has some rain on the northern periphery, this is not a rain heavy system, a lot of dry air has gotten into Gabrielle. So it won't be much of a drought buster for the Carolina's unfortunately.



It is forecast to clip or barely miss the Carolina coastline then head northeast,

Original Update
Gabrielle forms as a subtropical Storm.

The system southeast of the Carolinas has formed into a Subtropical storm. It was borderline most of the night as is. Meaning warm core at lower levels and cold core at higher levels, a hybrid system, not purely tropical.

Gabrielle formed from an old frontal boundary that developed a low level circulation, meandered around for days, getting sheared and kept from forming a purely tropical system.



Tropical Storm watches are up from South Carolina Northward into parts of North Carolina. Gabrielle is forecast to near the coast of the Carolinas. Subtropical storms tend to have larger wind fields than tropical storms.

Radar Loops
Morehead City, NC Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)
Wimington, NC Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)
StormCarib Reports from the Caribbean Islands

Caribbean Weather Observations

Barbados Brohav Weather Fax

Caribbean Broadcast Corporation (TV/Radio from Antilles)

San Juan, PR Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Various Caribbean Radio Stations

DR1 Dominican Republic Hurricanes
Gabrielle Event Related Links

Flhurricane Satellite Floater Animation of of Gabrielle - New for 2018


Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of Gabrielle


stormplotthumb_7.gif

SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page


float7latest.gif
Clark Evans Track Model Plot of Gabrielle (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of Gabrielle (Animated!)

Clark Evans Track Plot of Gabrielle

Other Model Charts from Clark

Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for Gabrielle
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on Gabrielle -- RAMMB Info

Floater Satellite Images: Visible (Loop), IR (Loop), WV (Loop), Dvorak (Loop), AVN (Loop), RGB (Loop), Rainbow (Loop), Funktop (Loop), RB Top Loop)

90L (Near Florida) Event Related Links

Flhurricane Satellite Floater Animation of of 90L - New for 2018


Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of 90L


stormplotthumb_8.gif

SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page


float8latest.gif
Clark Evans Track Model Plot of 90L (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of 90L (Animated!)

Clark Evans Track Plot of 90L

Other Model Charts from Clark

Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for 90L
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on 90L -- RAMMB Info

Floater Satellite Images: Visible (Loop), IR (Loop), WV (Loop), Dvorak (Loop), AVN (Loop), RGB (Loop), Rainbow (Loop), Funktop (Loop), RB Top Loop)

91L (Central Atlantic) Event Related Links

Flhurricane Satellite Floater Animation of of 91L - New for 2018


Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of 91L


stormplotthumb_9.gif

SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page


float9latest.gif
Clark Evans Track Model Plot of 91L (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of 91L (Animated!)

Clark Evans Track Plot of 91L

Other Model Charts from Clark

Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for 91L
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on 91L -- RAMMB Info

Floater Satellite Images: Visible (Loop), IR (Loop), WV (Loop), Dvorak (Loop), AVN (Loop), RGB (Loop), Rainbow (Loop), Funktop (Loop), RB Top Loop)

92L (Northeast of Caribbean) Event Related Links

Flhurricane Satellite Floater Animation of of 92L - New for 2018


Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of 92L


stormplotthumb_10.gif

SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page


float10latest.gif
Clark Evans Track Model Plot of 92L (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of 92L (Animated!)

Clark Evans Track Plot of 92L

Other Model Charts from Clark

Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for 92L
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on 92L -- RAMMB Info

Floater Satellite Images: Visible (Loop), IR (Loop), WV (Loop), Dvorak (Loop), AVN (Loop), RGB (Loop), Rainbow (Loop), Funktop (Loop), RB Top Loop)


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typhoon_tip
Meteorologist


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Re: Subtropical Storm Gabrielle Forms Southeast of the Carolinas [Re: MikeC]
      #78058 - Fri Sep 07 2007 10:57 PM

Subtropical declaration is quite fitting for this feature considering my own concerns recently posted in the 99L thread in the Storm Forum. It's interactions with the TUTT have led directly to its evolution in this regard, with additional aspect being a tremendous feed of dry air.

The question now becomes, will it complete phase transition and become purely tropical? Timing landfall will be critical in determing that... If it moves quickly toward the Coast and comes onboard than naturally it will only transition into a non-entity. If moves slower than modeled and remains seaward for long period of time, than it will be sitting over some of the hottest waters (Gulf Stream) in the Atlantic Basin and a transition will likely occur.

Edited by typhoon_tip (Fri Sep 07 2007 10:58 PM)


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punkyg
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Re: Subtropical Storm Gabrielle Forms Southeast of the Carolinas [Re: MikeC]
      #78059 - Fri Sep 07 2007 11:00 PM

Now that Subtropical gabrielle has formed and we now think we know where its going. we can all talk about how strong it will get and if it can become fully tropical.

I say this storm will make it up to 55mph before landfall
and i think it will stay subtropical.
And i think the track might be bumped up higher.


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HanKFranK
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take, etc. [Re: punkyg]
      #78060 - Sat Sep 08 2007 01:14 AM

it'll probably be a tropical storm sometime tomorrow. at some point in its life cycle it ought to become a hurricane. the north carolina track looks good as typically everything threatening the eastern seaboard aims for north carolina. much can't be said for it aside from that, as the upper low that dived on it was not well predicted by the models, and that prevented it from getting organized mid-week. it still came to be anyhow, since the synoptic forcing nearby outweighed smaller-scale negative factors.
that little blip in the gulf has some of the less reliable models biting. all it takes is a good mcc to get something that can actually start rolling to appear. whether it organizes or not, more rain for texas. sure they're looking forward to that.
no invest on it, but the wave that's nearing the cape verdes has a lot going for it in terms of development chances. most all of the models recurve it early with casual disregard. sooner it develops, better the chances.. there's a significant weakness between newfoundland and the azores.
we're almost to the season midpoint and on storm seven now. la nina years usually stay active late, but things are really trailing (and global scale factors don't seem ready to fall into place) for this season to end as hyper-active. it looks like above normal numbers but not extreme in terms of raw count, but those two category fives really spiked the monthly ntc/ace index numbers. on dean and felix alone we ought to have most of a full season's worth of activity.
speaking of felix, the death toll in coastal nicaragua is significant. there weren't a whole heck of a lot of people living where it made landfall, but it looks like it got a lot of them.
HF 0514z08september


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scottsvb
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Re: take, etc. [Re: HanKFranK]
      #78061 - Sat Sep 08 2007 02:10 AM

Im surprised they made this a Subtropical storm. I mean sooo the winds between the high and weak low are near 40mph and 45 is gracious..but this is a weak 1011mb low with winds generally around 25mph. I say it will get alittle better organized but if it gets over 50mph...it will be a surprise. Shear from the unseen shortwave trough and dry air really done in this low.

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flahurricane
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Re: take, etc. [Re: scottsvb]
      #78062 - Sat Sep 08 2007 02:42 AM

On the latest IR images of SubTS Gabrielle it looks like the center of circulation is located at 30N 75W and moving very slowly westward. A lot of the thunderstorm activity has dissapated tonight and any that still exists is to the very north and east of the center. At 2am NHC estimated the center to be at 30.5N 72.5W. Now that the center is more visible on satellite images I will be interesting to see if convection increases tonight and whether or not Gabrielle becomes a true tropical storm.

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dem05
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Re: take, etc. [Re: flahurricane]
      #78063 - Sat Sep 08 2007 06:34 AM

Interesting to see that Gabrielle was able to pull itoff development wise. I really can't see anything to add Gabrielle wise.

There's been mention in several postson this thread...as well as the previousone on a possiblesystem developing in the GOMex. This might be feasable. If development starts to take shape...that may happen north of the western tipof Cuba and/or west of the Dry Tortugas in the FL Keys. The overall streering currents show a ridge over the Houston area at this time. This would likely block any westerly motion for the time being...and with few other places to go...I would suspect that any disturbed weather of a tropical nature will basically meander around the SE Gulf for the next 2 days. Something to watch...but at this time...the models aren't all that excited about developing something just yet.

Steering Layer (700-850mb levels): http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8dlm1.html
Steering Layer (500-850mb levels): http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8dlm2.html


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Ed in Va
Weather Master


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Re: take, etc. [Re: dem05]
      #78064 - Sat Sep 08 2007 10:16 AM

Looks like it's getting a little better organized, with some convection over the center of circulation:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t3/loop-rgb.html

--------------------
Survived Carol and Edna '54 in Maine. Guess this kind of dates me!


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MM
Registered User


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Re: Subtropical Storm Gabrielle Forms Southeast of the Carolinas [Re: MikeC]
      #78065 - Sat Sep 08 2007 10:56 AM

Hi all from a newcomer... ;-)

Just wanted to ask the gurus here, what they think about a wave about 10N 33W SW of Capverde Islands. If memory serves me right, that's about the birthplace of "Dean".
Also 5N 33W looks interesting. I'm looking at that corner for a while now...

Just interested about your crystal glass...


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Lamar-Plant City
Storm Tracker


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Re: Subtropical Storm Gabrielle Forms Southeast of the Carolinas [Re: MM]
      #78067 - Sat Sep 08 2007 11:53 AM

I have a question.....looking at the following Water Vapor loop, there looks to be a small low pressure-type swirl that has broken off from the Gabrielle system and is moving west toward the Daytona Beach area. Can anyone clue me in as to what this is about? Is it a residual from Gabrielle, or something else popping up.

Florida Water Vapor Loop 14:45Z

--------------------
If you don't like the weather, wait 5 minutes...
2017 Season Prediction: 16/7/3


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scottsvb
Weather Master


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Re: Subtropical Storm Gabrielle Forms Southeast of the Carolinas [Re: Lamar-Plant City]
      #78068 - Sat Sep 08 2007 12:26 PM

This storm is on forecast over the last week. Its been straight up with the rest of the season. Only thing was the shear that wasnt forecasted although I did notice the shortwave and said it probably wont get to hurricane strength..but then again..I went against the ships intensity forecasts. Anyways a path near the Outerbanks and then NNE-NE into the N Atlantic. Some TS force winds can be expected over the outerbanks..but inland expect just some breezy conditions in a feeder band.

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weather999
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Re: take, etc. [Re: HanKFranK]
      #78069 - Sat Sep 08 2007 01:49 PM

Question here:

If a Subtropical Storm managed to have winds of hurricane force or stronger, would it become a Subtropical Hurricane, or stay as a Subtropical Storm, but with hurricane (red font on NHC) status? Is it even feasible to say that a Subtropical System in the Atlantic could reach hurricane strength... and can/do SubTSes form in the E. Pac? Thanks.


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Wxwatcher2
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Re: take, etc. [Re: weather999]
      #78070 - Sat Sep 08 2007 02:13 PM

Other than a minor wind event for the outer banks area of North Carolina, I don't see "extratropical Gabriel" as anything to pay attention to.

What baffles me is why did the NHC use up a name on this storm? Has it been done before? I just don't recall an extr-tropical whatever being named previously.

A good tropical depression then should get a name in the future if we go by this thinking.

I continue to be a happy camper that the season for CONUS remains free from threats.

Life is good.


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weather_wise911
Weather Hobbyist


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Re: take, etc. [Re: Wxwatcher2]
      #78072 - Sat Sep 08 2007 02:52 PM

Quote:

Other than a minor wind event for the outer banks area of North Carolina, I don't see "extratropical Gabriel" as anything to pay attention to.

What baffles me is why did the NHC use up a name on this storm? Has it been done before? I just don't recall an extr-tropical whatever being named previously.







It's Subtropical... not extratropical.........


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cieldumort
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Re: Subtropical Storm Gabrielle Forms Southeast of the Carolinas [Re: MikeC]
      #78073 - Sat Sep 08 2007 02:56 PM

Looks like there have been some good questions posted on this thread that arguably relate to the topic of Gabrielle.

A lot of confusion exists, even among mets, as to the nature of sub-tropical cyclones, and debate has existed to greater or lesser degrees for decades as to whether or not to include them in the historical count, and later, whether to go ahead and draw down names from the seasonal list and apply such a formal tracking status to them.

To cover three queries - with brief answers, in the interest of my own time, and in not cluttering up the main thread:

--The cyclonic cloud motion some are talking about that is "seemingly breaking off from" Gabrielle and heading SW on route to Florida is the upper level low (TUTT low) mentioned in previous threads, and in Typhoon Tip's earlier Invest 99 thread (See main page).

--Many subtropical cyclones do go on to become fully tropical.. and go on to become hurricanes. Rarely, if ever, does a subtropical storm strengthen to even minimal hurricane-force sustained winds without having transitioned into a more purely or purely tropical cyclone. Hence, you are unlikely to ever see an official "Subtropical Hurricane (Name here)".

Subtropical cyclones do form in many basins, and at many latitudes, but as the moniker explicitly suggests, they most often form in the .. subtropics.

--Please note that Subtropical Storm Gabrielle is a Subtropical Cyclone and not an extra-tropical gale. There are very valid, technical reasons for this, and the highly-educated and skilled experts at NHC have not just somehow arbitrarily decided to draw down a name for the sake of whatever, and applied it to this system.


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madmumbler
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Re: Subtropical Storm Gabrielle Forms Southeast of the Carolinas [Re: cieldumort]
      #78075 - Sat Sep 08 2007 05:41 PM

Looks like the NHC has decided to reclassify Gabby as a tropical storm based upon their findings.

How exactly do they tell this? Is it based upon reading from the dropsondes or the fly-throughs or satellite or what?

--------------------
Lesli in SWFL.
Friends help you move. Real friends help you move bodies.


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JY381
Unregistered




Re: Subtropical Storm Gabrielle Forms Southeast of the Carolinas [Re: MikeC]
      #78076 - Sat Sep 08 2007 06:56 PM

Gabby is exploding with convection right now, and the low-level center of circulation has finally dug under the convection...

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allan
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Re: Subtropical Storm Gabrielle Forms Southeast of the Carolinas [Re: Unregistered User]
      #78077 - Sat Sep 08 2007 07:38 PM

Ya know, for a weak storm at durinal minimum, this storm is not doing too bad. I see this becoming at least a 70 mph. storm at landfall due to durinal minimum. Yes, the center in right in the southeast convection. A few more storms in that area would already make it 50 mph. at best. This is going to be one interesting night. What's also interesting is that storms that move out to sea from the Carolinas strengthens, Alex (2004) and Gustav (2002). Hurricane Gustav as I've been mentioning throught this whole storm is the twin to Gabrielle. Check out the track
http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/at20027.asp

I guess I do see how this "could" become a minimal Hurricane due to the recent blow up and durinal max later on tonight, but chances are very low. Don;t be surprised though.. remember Wilma?

--------------------
Allan Reed - 18,9,5


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Beach
Weather Guru


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Re: Subtropical Storm Gabrielle Forms Southeast of the Carolinas [Re: allan]
      #78078 - Sat Sep 08 2007 10:24 PM

Is the storm jogging to the West?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t3/loop-wv.html

What I perceive as the center seems to be moving along 33N


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Seaworthy991
Unregistered




Re: Subtropical Storm Gabrielle Forms Southeast of the Carolinas [Re: Beach]
      #78080 - Sat Sep 08 2007 10:33 PM

How about the hurricane of 1938 that devastated Providence RI and the SE Coast of Massachusetts?
Wasn't it a small storm that explode in the vicinity of delmarva or further north?


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nc_tropical_wx79
Weather Guru


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Re: Subtropical Storm Gabrielle Forms Southeast of the Carolinas [Re: Beach]
      #78081 - Sat Sep 08 2007 10:43 PM

From what I understand Gabby isn't moving west it's just that convection is building on the west side of the storm and expanding is giving the illusion that it's moving west but agree with NHC that it's still going nw. Someone or any Mets tell me if I'm wrong and it is moving west now?

--------------------
W.D. Duncan


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CaneTrackerInSoFl
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Re: Subtropical Storm Gabrielle Forms Southeast of the Carolinas [Re: Unregistered User]
      #78082 - Sat Sep 08 2007 10:53 PM

Quote:

How about the hurricane of 1938 that devastated Providence RI and the SE Coast of Massachusetts?
Wasn't it a small storm that explode in the vicinity of delmarva or further north?



No, it was a large storm that had been tracked for weeks and according to ship reports and estimates at the time, it was a category 5 heading towards Miami and then when it started turning north at the Bahamas.

--------------------
Andrew 1992, Irene 1999, Katrina 2005, Wilma 2005



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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser


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Re: Subtropical Storm Gabrielle Forms Southeast of the Carolinas [Re: nc_tropical_wx79]
      #78083 - Sat Sep 08 2007 10:55 PM

Looking at the radar loop, I would say it is moving west. Having said that, radar loops can trick the eye, so I judge motion from the IR loop (since it's dark out)... where I see a hint that it might be moving SOUTH of due west even. Could be an illusion.

--------------------
Hugh

Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)


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StrmTrckrMiami
Weather Guru


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Re: Subtropical Storm Gabrielle Forms Southeast of the Carolinas [Re: Hugh]
      #78084 - Sat Sep 08 2007 11:07 PM

Wierd, I saw the same thing. On the following link,
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t3/loop-wv.html

if you click Trop Fcst Pts it shows you the projected path of Gabby, and she isnt even on her track. It looks as though she may be taking a dodge for Florida. And as for Florida, we here in Miami are getting severe thunderstorms..

--------------------


Tracking Storms Since 2004
Miami, Cocoa, Fort Myers and Jacksonville
Currently Reside in New England


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nc_tropical_wx79
Weather Guru


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Re: Subtropical Storm Gabrielle Forms Southeast of the Carolinas [Re: Hugh]
      #78085 - Sat Sep 08 2007 11:07 PM

Even if it was moving west to due south of west this isn't a call for a shift of the track or anything right? I mean for it to be movement and not a simple wobble it has to occur for more then an hour or less doesn't it?

--------------------
W.D. Duncan


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nc_tropical_wx79
Weather Guru


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Re: Subtropical Storm Gabrielle Forms Southeast of the Carolinas [Re: StrmTrckrMiami]
      #78086 - Sat Sep 08 2007 11:13 PM

My only thing is how can movement be tracked yet if the NHC isn't clear where the COC is? Guess we'll find out when the HH get there. Which by the way what time should they be arriving in/to Gabby?

--------------------
W.D. Duncan


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Lamar-Plant City
Storm Tracker


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Loc: Plant City, Florida
Re: Subtropical Storm Gabrielle Forms Southeast of the Carolinas [Re: nc_tropical_wx79]
      #78087 - Sat Sep 08 2007 11:15 PM

I think you all are being fooled by watching the convection....if it is on the north of the LLC, of course it is going to move west, then sw as it circulates. IR loop shows the center of circulation still moving NW.

--------------------
If you don't like the weather, wait 5 minutes...
2017 Season Prediction: 16/7/3


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Beach
Weather Guru


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Re: Subtropical Storm Gabrielle Forms Southeast of the Carolinas [Re: Lamar-Plant City]
      #78088 - Sat Sep 08 2007 11:21 PM

You'll have to zoom a bit, but I think there will be a track adjustment at 2.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/nwatl/loop-wv.html

If you look at the outflow it is shifting.


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nc_tropical_wx79
Weather Guru


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Re: Subtropical Storm Gabrielle Forms Southeast of the Carolinas [Re: Beach]
      #78089 - Sat Sep 08 2007 11:25 PM

I honestly don't know how to tell if the outflow is shifting so can someone tell me is it shifting?

--------------------
W.D. Duncan


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ltpat228
Storm Tracker


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Re: Subtropical Storm Gabrielle Forms Southeast of the Carolinas [Re: Beach]
      #78090 - Sat Sep 08 2007 11:29 PM

Quote:

You'll have to zoom a bit, but I think there will be a track adjustment at 2.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/nwatl/loop-wv.html

If you look at the outflow it is shifting.




I looked up a few other visuals besides the one you list and yes, I also see it shifting to west southwest.

http://www.accuweather.com/radar-large.a...ate&large=1


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Beach
Weather Guru


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Re: Subtropical Storm Gabrielle Forms Southeast of the Carolinas [Re: nc_tropical_wx79]
      #78091 - Sat Sep 08 2007 11:30 PM

Try this link:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t3/loop-bd.html

You can clearly see the circulation of the storm, the few frames it tightens and moves SW


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flahurricane
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Re: Subtropical Storm Gabrielle Forms Southeast of the Carolinas [Re: Beach]
      #78102 - Sun Sep 09 2007 01:09 AM

it almost looks like a wobble just south of west...it looks like the convection is building to the east a little more this early-morning.. either way that front should push it away pretty quickly

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nc_tropical_wx79
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Re: Subtropical Storm Gabrielle Forms Southeast of the Carolinas [Re: flahurricane]
      #78103 - Sun Sep 09 2007 01:14 AM

ARe HH out there yet so we can know for sure what direction Gabby is moving? I still believe NW and have a feeling the convection and radar is making it seem that a West or even SW jog has taken place.

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Storm Hunter
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Re: Subtropical Storm Gabrielle Forms Southeast of the Carolinas [Re: nc_tropical_wx79]
      #78104 - Sun Sep 09 2007 01:17 AM

yeah, recon is out there....
At 05:13:30Z (last observation), the observation was 130 miles (210 km) to the SSE (150°) from Wilmington, NC, USA.

this is intersting... the basically flew right down I-10, from Mobile to Jacksonville, to just east of Jacksonville, then turned north... up the coast.... there down to 2,500ft

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Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh



Edited by Storm Hunter (Sun Sep 09 2007 01:20 AM)


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Random Chaos
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Re: Subtropical Storm Gabrielle Forms Southeast of the Carolinas [Re: flahurricane]
      #78105 - Sun Sep 09 2007 01:19 AM

I just looked through the CMISS analysis graphics and it looks like it might be getting sheared slightly to the SW. The vortex movement, and I'm assuming the low pressure center movement, is W, but the convection is moving SW, indicating shear.

Also, if you look at the vorticity centers at the 850mb and 700mb level, you will see that the 700mb is just to the SW of the 850mb level, also indicating shear.

At least I think that is what I am seeing

--RC

Edit: Take this post with question; my next post is on Quickscat which is interesting and throws this one into doubt.

Edited by Random Chaos (Sun Sep 09 2007 01:31 AM)


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nc_tropical_wx79
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Re: Subtropical Storm Gabrielle Forms Southeast of the Carolinas [Re: Random Chaos]
      #78106 - Sun Sep 09 2007 01:23 AM

Not sure if I'm understanding that right but are you saying it looks to be moving SW because of shear but the LLC is moving West and the convection and LLC are moving in 2 different directions?

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Random Chaos
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Re: Subtropical Storm Gabrielle Forms Southeast of the Carolinas [Re: nc_tropical_wx79]
      #78107 - Sun Sep 09 2007 01:26 AM

Hmm, now I am confused

Quickscat ( http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/storm_at_image21/latest_at_0.html ) is showing the center of rotation at 76W 32N but the IR is showing the convection centered about 76.5W 33N with the quickscat position entirely exposed.

This would indicate either strong shear or continued subtropical state (NHC classified it as Tropical today).

Anyone have tips on this discrepancy?


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Storm Hunter
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Re: Subtropical Storm Gabrielle Forms Southeast of the Carolinas [Re: Random Chaos]
      #78108 - Sun Sep 09 2007 01:33 AM

recon should be almost there now... winds at flight level have picked up to about the 45mph range
05:23:30Z at 33.03N 76.43W From 299° at 39 knots (From the WNW at ~ 44.8 mph)
Observation Number: 22 HDOB
At 05:14:00Z (first observation), the observation was 130 miles (209 km) to the SSE (149°) from Wilmington, NC, At 05:23:30Z (last observation), the observation was 119 miles (191 km) to the S (171°) from Morehead City, NC.

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LoisCane
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Re: Subtropical Storm Gabrielle Forms Southeast of the Carolinas [Re: Random Chaos]
      #78109 - Sun Sep 09 2007 01:33 AM

Hard to find the center exactly and the 11pm discussion talked on this problem, or tried to explain it..

She is way to the west on any loop you look at.. it may be mostly her convection and if so suddenly her convection is displaced to the left instead of the right like it used to be which means something

any way you look at it... at least for the time being something is going on

and recon is there so ...we should have more data by 2 and if not by 2.. the 5am should be a very interesting read..

http://www.tropicalatlantic.com/recon/archive/2007/Gabrielle/HDOB/AF/04/map.shtml
nothing like sitting up with friends watching the plane circle around on google lol

Radar can sometimes be deceiving but this has been going on now for a while tonight... hard to know exactly where the center is but recon should get a fix or two..

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ltpat228
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Re: Subtropical Storm Gabrielle Forms Southeast of the Carolinas [Re: Random Chaos]
      #78110 - Sun Sep 09 2007 01:36 AM

Quote:

Hmm, now I am confused



Ha! Ha!
I remain confused - lol.
I swear I see Gabrielle moving more southwesterly...and I have a keen interest in that area as a very dear friend of mine lives on the ocean across from Wilmington. I'll wait for the 0200 update and see what gives.

Now to confuse myself EVEN more:

This new 90L info on this site http://flhurricane.com/sbanimator.php?year=2007&storm=8
has 90L in the middle of the Gulf.

Yet when I look on my local radar as well as this link
http://www.goes.noaa.gov/ECIR2.html
I am seeing a humongous mess in south and southwest Florida!


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flahurricane
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Re: Subtropical Storm Gabrielle Forms Southeast of the Carolinas [Re: ltpat228]
      #78112 - Sun Sep 09 2007 01:47 AM

take a closer look at the infrared satellite loop..don't look at the convection near s. florida, look at the circulation west of that.

I see it around 23.5N and 87W...I am starting to see thunderstorm activity forming to the northeast and southwest of the center.


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Beach
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Re: Subtropical Storm Gabrielle Forms Southeast of the Carolinas [Re: nc_tropical_wx79]
      #78114 - Sun Sep 09 2007 01:56 AM

No way,

The center is now crossing back over 33N
They haven't put there 2am out yet,
There will be a track change

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t3/loop-wv.html


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Storm Hunter
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Re: Subtropical Storm Gabrielle Forms Southeast of the Carolinas [Re: nc_tropical_wx79]
      #78115 - Sun Sep 09 2007 01:59 AM

pressure down on Gabrielle... 1005mb

URNT12 KNHC 090549
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 09/05:36:10Z
B. 33 deg 29 min N
075 deg 54 min W
C. 925 mb NA m
D. NA kt
E. NA deg 000 nm
F. 301 deg 040 kt
G. 231 deg 037 nm
H. EXTRAP 1005 mb
I. 18 C/ 761 m
J. 22 C/ 784 m
K. 21 C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 12345/ 9
O. 0.03 / 1 nm
P. AF309 0407A GABRIELLE OB 08
MAX FL WIND 40 KT SW QUAD 05:23:20 Z
SLP EXTRAP FROM 925 MB

2am is out...

**GABRIELLE NOW MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AS OUTER BANDS MOVE
ONSHORE...**


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www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh



Edited by Storm Hunter (Sun Sep 09 2007 02:03 AM)


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Random Chaos
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Re: Subtropical Storm Gabrielle Forms Southeast of the Carolinas [Re: Storm Hunter]
      #78116 - Sun Sep 09 2007 02:04 AM

Well, 2am is out and marks the center at 33.5 N...75.9 W; I'm assuming this is based on the recon mission. Interesting how this corresponds neither with the quickscat nor the convection. It is now NE of the convective center which is now down about 33N 76.5W.

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ltpat228
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90L [Re: flahurricane]
      #78118 - Sun Sep 09 2007 02:16 AM

Quote:

take a closer look at the infrared satellite loop..don't look at the convection near s. florida, look at the circulation west of that.

I see it around 23.5N and 87W...I am starting to see thunderstorm activity forming to the northeast and southwest of the center.




Well here is what I see from NOAA:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo_atl.shtml


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Storm Hunter
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Re: 90L [Re: ltpat228]
      #78121 - Sun Sep 09 2007 02:51 AM Attachment (277 downloads)

based on the level II data from MHX... the low level center has no storms around the center... completely exposed to me... the mid-upp part of the system is to the SW of the low level center... the system is looking pretty bad to me right now... there are no storms around the center... and its over the gulf stream.. looks to me... shear is getting Gabrielle right now... that could change later on this morning...


recon is just to the east of Morehead city... heading back to the south... *actually recon was about 2 miles off of Cape Lookout, the old lighthouse there... they turned toward the beach some on last part of the data i got...**

attached image... redline is basically the flight path of current recon***

Edited by Storm Hunter (Sun Sep 09 2007 03:08 AM)


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Clark
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Re: Subtropical Storm Gabrielle Forms Southeast of the Carolinas [Re: MikeC]
      #78123 - Sun Sep 09 2007 02:56 AM

Where's Gabrielle? Seems like everyone is having trouble with it tonight.

The 11pm NHC discussion mentioned that the low level center appeared to be displaced from a mid-level center that spun-up in the convective flare-up earlier this evening. The latest recon fix confirmed this. Satellite isn't a good tool to be using for finding a center at night given these considerations; you simply cannot see the low-levels. Even the available radars -- Wilmington and Morehead City, NC -- are looking at 11000ft+ and 6000ft+, respectively. Despite that, they do show the remnant midlevel circulation to the WSW/SW of the actual low-level center, just now coming into view on Morehead City radar and as fixed by recon lately.

As for QuikSCAT -- that pass is a few hours old and the high-res pass and ambiguities both suggest the center is in the NE area of that broader circulation, which would be consistent back to around 7p ET when the pass captured the storm.

Is it possible that the low level center can or will reform underneath that convective flareup? Perhaps. But, it has not yet done so and the convective flareup -- and associated mid-level center -- appear to be weakening from latest radar trends. Overall, focus on the recon fixes and what radar tell you before anything from satellite, especially given the eclipse period of the satellite during this time of the evening.

Hope this helps clear the confusion on Gabrielle.

NOTE on 90L: please take all 90L discussion to the Storm Forum and Forecast Lounge for now. Let's keep things on topic for our landfalling storm in this thread; 90L is currently broad, disorganized, and there's not a lot to suggest development from it in the next day or two. If you'd like to discuss it as a future threat, please check out the thread in the Forecast Lounge. Once Gabrielle moves out or development looks more likely from 90L (currently it is fairly low on the development scale), we'll open things up a bit more. Thanks for your cooperation.

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Storm Hunter
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Re: Subtropical Storm Gabrielle Forms Southeast of the Carolinas [Re: Clark]
      #78126 - Sun Sep 09 2007 03:21 AM

6:45 sat shot is up... check out Gabrielle... she's taking a beating... the CDO got sheared, i think do to the ULL to the SSW... **the structure now looks almost like alot of those hurricane icons graphics out there*** << like that one... the CDO is MUCH smaller and there looks like there is another round of convection trying to go... its to the SW of the center, from what i can see on Level II data from MHX... seems the system took a beating last evening?

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Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh



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syfr
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Re: Subtropical Storm Gabrielle Forms Southeast of the Carolinas [Re: Storm Hunter]
      #78127 - Sun Sep 09 2007 07:11 AM

Am on Ocracoke island (tip of outer banks below Hatteras). Rain and moderate winds, but certainly not more than that (yet). Rips were moderate to strong yesterday along the coast near the channel with Portsmouth Island along the Southern edge of Ocracoke.

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craigm
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Re: Subtropical Storm Gabrielle Forms Southeast of the Carolinas [Re: syfr]
      #78129 - Sun Sep 09 2007 09:56 AM

If she stays offshore that will probably be the extent of it.Waves will keep coming up as it moves NE.
Getting busy now. 91L is up now and possible 92L forming around 57W south of 20N

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danielwAdministrator
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Other Systems [Re: craigm]
      #78145 - Sun Sep 09 2007 12:39 PM

Please see the 2007 Forecast Lounge for the current post on the other 3 currently active systems.

90L in the GOM.
91L in the Eastern Atlantic
92L in the Mid Atlantic.( at 1PM EDT Sunday this system appears to be the earliest, 5 Day, threat to Florida~danielw)

Model runs may be found here:
http://www.skeetobiteweather.com/

Edited by danielw (Sun Sep 09 2007 12:43 PM)


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