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Archives 2000s >> 2007 News Talkbacks

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OUSHAWN
Weather Guru


Reged: Tue
Posts: 101
Loc: Clear Lake,Tx
Re: Watching Wave East of the Caribbean [Re: MikeC]
      #78290 - Wed Sep 12 2007 11:09 AM

From what I'm seeing and hearing here locally it looks like TD9 may actually already be a tropical storm. We will know more once the aircraft gets out there but they may find a lower pressure and higher winds than indicated right now. The statement from the NWS here locally states that TD9 is getting its act together. I'm seeing maybe a 60mph storm as it makes landfall.

Shawn


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WeatherNLU
Meteorologist


Reged: Sat
Posts: 212
Loc: New Orleans, LA
Re: Watching Wave East of the Caribbean [Re: OUSHAWN]
      #78292 - Wed Sep 12 2007 11:38 AM

Quote:

From what I'm seeing and hearing here locally it looks like TD9 may actually already be a tropical storm. We will know more once the aircraft gets out there but they may find a lower pressure and higher winds than indicated right now. The statement from the NWS here locally states that TD9 is getting its act together. I'm seeing maybe a 60mph storm as it makes landfall.

Shawn




Yeah, it's probably a 40 mph tropical storm, and they will upgrade it as soon as the RECON verifies that.

I am interested in the N at 6 mph movement. It doesn't seem to be moving at 6 mph but they are the experts so I will defer for the moment. I think we need to give this a few hours to pan out and see what's really going on here.

--------------------
I survived Hurricane Katrina, but nothing I owned did!


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scottsvb
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1153
Loc: fl
Re: Watching Wave East of the Caribbean [Re: WeatherNLU]
      #78293 - Wed Sep 12 2007 11:58 AM

TD 8 is barely a TD. Its a elongated center with NO definable SE winds. It does have a well defined mid-level circulation though. I dont think this will get much better organized until it gets north of 15 and west of 60 if it survives.

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Thunderbird12
Meteorologist


Reged: Thu
Posts: 644
Loc: Oklahoma
Re: Watching Wave East of the Caribbean [Re: WeatherNLU]
      #78294 - Wed Sep 12 2007 12:04 PM

It looks like the recon mission into TD9 has been called off early, for whatever reason. It is well within radar range, though, so they can track the winds that way if another plane is unable to get into the system before landfall. So far, the max winds at radar beam height have been about 50 kts from the radial veloicty data in a few spots east of the center. If those wind speeds persist, that may be enough to bump it to TS status in the absence of other evidence.

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7 Deadly Zins
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Sun
Posts: 12
Loc: Nashville, TN
Re: Watching Wave East of the Caribbean [Re: WeatherNLU]
      #78295 - Wed Sep 12 2007 12:05 PM

Recon never made it to TD 8. Mechanical problems most likely forced them to turn around and go back.
Several storms of the past have formed in the Western Gulf and intensified to the cat 1 level and higher, most recently Claudette of 2003. The Galveston area was hit by Cindy in 1963, Debra in 1959, and an un-named storm in 1943, which was at least a cat 2. All of which formed in the Western Gulf.


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ltpat228
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
Posts: 201
Loc: Port Saint Lucie FL
Re: Watching Wave East of the Caribbean [Re: 7 Deadly Zins]
      #78297 - Wed Sep 12 2007 12:14 PM

Quote:

Recon never made it to TD 8. Mechanical problems most likely forced them to turn around and go back.



Would you please provide the link which states Recon has mechanical problems?


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Allison
Weather Guru


Reged: Tue
Posts: 134
Loc: Laredo, Texas
Re: Watching Wave East of the Caribbean [Re: OUSHAWN]
      #78298 - Wed Sep 12 2007 12:27 PM

Well, I'm embarrassed to say that this thing snuck up on me.... I haven't been watching the site (or any other weather for that matter)....

This is uncannily like the TS Allison situation in 2001, especially considering that the models are currently keeping TD9 around SE Texas for awhile (of course, these are early runs and likely to change).

I was tending to agree with Shawn and Beaumont that TD9 was already a TS in all but name, but the buoy near Freeport, TX (42019) is showing a windspeed of 21.4kts as of 10:50AM -- so not quite TS yet. (This is near the reported center of TD9.) But note that the pressure is rising at this location, so the storm is likely moving away from the buoy, and may not be the best indicator of any expected strenghtening.

--------------------
Allison


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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
Re: Watching Wave East of the Caribbean [Re: Allison]
      #78299 - Wed Sep 12 2007 12:42 PM Attachment (342 downloads)

checking on the AF recon... there about over New Orleans heading back in... there appeared to be one pass and a loop back.... At 15:40:00Z (last observation), the observation was 54 miles (87 km) to the SSE (153°) from Lafayette, LA.
The Lockheed WP-3D Orion (Reg. Num. N43RF) is in the SE bahama's.... on a trainning mission**
Based on the data i have seen, i would think that TD 9 is a tropical storm... but just barley

Good news... looks like back-up recon is airborne... leaving biloxi right now AF306 just took off
**AF 306 At 16:42:30Z (last observation), the observation was 9 miles (15 km) to the E (82°) from Gulfport, MS. The mission is Tropical Depression: Number 9 (in the North Atlantic basin). **



--------------------
www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh



Edited by Storm Hunter (Wed Sep 12 2007 12:56 PM)


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Beaumont, TX
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
Posts: 318
Re: Watching Wave East of the Caribbean [Re: Allison]
      #78300 - Wed Sep 12 2007 12:54 PM

Yes, concern with TD 9 is definitely rain. Recon is on its way out there again?

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danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3518
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
TD 8 [Re: MikeC]
      #78302 - Wed Sep 12 2007 01:11 PM

Quote:

TD#8 is moving much slower than most systems out at that longitude, at the rate it's moving it wouldn't be until late next week it could affect anywhere in the US. It'll still be east of the islands on Monday, it seems.

It's going to have a pretty good battle with shear too. Because of all that it's most likely going to be a fish spinner type system, but it'll depend on how conditions are this weekend into next week.






One of the GFDL runs from yesterday had 91L down to 2 knots forward speed at one point in the next 126 hours.
It's still doing the same slow down. 91L/ TD 8 is going to wear on some nerves during the next 10 days.
42hour forecast 13.5N 47.1W 260./ 3.3 (WSW at 3.3knots)


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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA
Re: Watching Wave East of the Caribbean [Re: Beaumont, TX]
      #78303 - Wed Sep 12 2007 01:14 PM

Rainfall is already over 6" in some of coastal Jefferson County, TX. I'm interested to see if the system is moving N @ 6mph (+/-350 on the 10am advisory). Additional time over water, though not necessarily allowing for any marked strengthening, could allow for some piling up rainfall rates in the Golden Triangle (Orange, Beaumont, Port Arthur) area and into Lake Charles. There's a giant swath of moisture on the eastern side of the system which could mean close to a foot in some sections of coastal SW LA (talking Cameron, Vermillion and Iberia Parishes). Those areas and coastal SE Texas have hurricane local statements up on the Lake Charles NWS Homepage.

My call is for a +/- 50mph Tropical Storm to landfall east of High Island, Texas. What happens after that is anyone's guess. Some possibilities include splitting of the upper and lower cirulations with the upper support heading off NE with the front and lower moisture backing off SW with the trough split to a slow moving system heading up toward northern Mississippi with lots of Gulf moisture out front of it.

Steve

--------------------
MF'n Super Bowl Champions


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danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3518
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Re: Watching Wave East of the Caribbean [Re: Steve]
      #78304 - Wed Sep 12 2007 01:30 PM

Steve... Don't forget the Tornadoes.
You are in Lockport and in the NE Quadrant. That location is known for tornadoes- along with some other towns in that area. Must be the topography.

The east side of the storm has moisture extending south beyond the latitude of the Tx MX Border as Steve said.
A looping track would mean lots of water in the canals and bayous over a 3-5 day period.

Edited by danielw (Wed Sep 12 2007 01:36 PM)


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allan
Weather Master


Reged: Thu
Posts: 468
Loc: Palm Coast, Florida
Re: Tropical Depression 8 Forms East of Caribbean, Tropical Depression 9 Forms in Gulf of Mexico [Re: MikeC]
      #78305 - Wed Sep 12 2007 01:45 PM

Tropical Storm Humberto has formed.. I am bumping my prediction from 50-55 winds at landfall to 60-65 mph!! it strengthens from 35-45 mph. in half of an advisory so it may get to 55 mph. at 5 p.m. not sure.. but if the trend continues.. 55 mph by 5 p.m.

--------------------
Allan Reed - 18,9,5


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cieldumort
Moderator


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1835
Loc: Austin, Tx
Re: Tropical Depression 8 Forms East of Caribbean, Tropical Depression 9 Forms in Gulf of Mexico [Re: allan]
      #78306 - Wed Sep 12 2007 01:58 PM

The upgrade to Humberto may seem a bit rapid, but all should keep in mind that Humberto was really likely a Storm before they issued the first advisory. (Per the 11AM TD 9 Discussion). It would appear that Humberto had become a depression sometime near or just either side of daybreak, in all actuality.

While there is likely a real chance Humberto does strengthen into a significant wind event, as well as rain event, for Texas and/or Louisiana, given its slow movement and proximity to already very soaked land, the single greatest impact from Humberto is likely to be more flooding. Widespread flooding, and a significant possibility of locally catastrophic flooding, is the theme here. This is our lot out here in Texas 2007.


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scottsvb
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1153
Loc: fl
Re: Tropical Depression 8 Forms East of Caribbean, Tropical Depression 9 Forms in Gulf of Mexico [Re: cieldumort]
      #78307 - Wed Sep 12 2007 02:02 PM

45mph is a bit generous on the windspeed.....I would think 40mph is about right with the pressure. Allan it wont be no 55mph storm at 5pm and probably wont get higher due to proximaty to land. Landfall should be tonight...It may get up to 50mph this evening. Pressures would have to drop to below 1000mb for any increase in wind speed over 50mph. Its not out of the question though.

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Clark
Meteorologist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1710
Loc:
Re: Tropical Depression 8 Forms East of Caribbean, Tropical Depression 9 Forms in Gulf of Mexico [Re: scottsvb]
      #78308 - Wed Sep 12 2007 02:29 PM

SFMR on the current recon mission has already found 58kt SFC winds in squalls on what appears to be the east side of the center. Whether or not the 48kt and 58kt winds are representative of the entire circulation, I'll leave that for NHC to decide. Despite that, Humberto is a rather small system that seems to be coming together at a decent clip as it approaches the coast today. A 60-65mph storm at landfall is not out of the question, but the primary concern is and still would be rainfall.

Edit: extrap SLP (from 850mb) is 1002mb. More tropical storm force winds are being found, though not at the 58kt level of before.

--------------------
Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)

Edited by Clark (Wed Sep 12 2007 02:37 PM)


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cieldumort
Moderator


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1835
Loc: Austin, Tx
Re: Tropical Depression 8 Forms East of Caribbean, Tropical Depression 9 Forms in Gulf of Mexico [Re: Clark]
      #78309 - Wed Sep 12 2007 03:15 PM

In addition to the on-board SFMR data, if one takes the moment or two to carefully review the past few hours of radar and satellite loops, particularly the JSL & FT enhancements, it is clear that Humberto is in the process of trying to form and close off an eye. I concur that we may have a hurricane before landfall.

As has been proven over and over this season, a tropical cyclone's minimum central pressure is not at all an absolute guide to the surface wind speed it is producing. It is entirely possible, at this rate maybe even probable this season, that we can see a Hurricane Humberto declared with pressures even as "high" as just under 1000mb.


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scottsvb
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1153
Loc: fl
Re: Tropical Depression 8 Forms East of Caribbean, Tropical Depression 9 Forms in Gulf of Mexico [Re: Clark]
      #78310 - Wed Sep 12 2007 03:16 PM

Pressure is down to 1001mb on latest recon...but winds havnt picked up yet. They still might bring this to 50mph at 5pm with the pressure but with landfall tonight...it be interesting if the pressure drops alittle more. Its true that pressures dont exactly coordinate to winds speeds but Humberto will not be a hurricane with pressures of 1000mb maybe 994 or less.

Edited by scottsvb (Wed Sep 12 2007 03:19 PM)


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Bloodstar
Moderator


Reged: Mon
Posts: 441
Loc: Georgia Tech
Re: Tropical Depression 8 Forms East of Caribbean, Tropical Depression 9 Forms in Gulf of Mexico [Re: Clark]
      #78311 - Wed Sep 12 2007 03:19 PM

Vortex data message from ~2:25 was extrapolated to 1001. I'd guess the system is moving at an agonizingly slow pace. It's still about 70 miles south of the coast and going to take a while to come ashore. About the only good news? I didn't form 100 miles further south, so it shouldn't have time to really ramp up. (of course everything I've ever thought of a storm has been exactly wrong this year so, several grains of salt with anything I say

TD 8 is not very impressive, I'm sure it will be more impressive later, but I'm not convinced it will survive at this point.

--------------------
M. S. Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Georgia Tech - May 2019.


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allan
Weather Master


Reged: Thu
Posts: 468
Loc: Palm Coast, Florida
Re: Tropical Depression 8 Forms East of Caribbean, Tropical Depression 9 Forms in Gulf of Mexico [Re: Bloodstar]
      #78312 - Wed Sep 12 2007 03:26 PM

As I stated earlier, a landfall with 60 - 65 mph. is what I am looking for.. it may finally slow up or it could just keep on going till it hits land.. I wouldn't be surprised if this ramped up into a 70-75 mph. storm. Not wishcasting anything, just going by the trend I am seeing. I have a feeling just in case and if the winds are over 55 mph at the next advisory as I also stated earlier, hurricane watches may be needed.

--------------------
Allan Reed - 18,9,5

Edited by allan (Wed Sep 12 2007 03:26 PM)


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