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Archives 2000s >> 2007 News Talkbacks

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anomaly18
Registered User


Reged: Sat
Posts: 9
Loc: Galveston, TX
Re: humberto and friends [Re: OUSHAWN]
      #78341 - Wed Sep 12 2007 09:11 PM

If it continues toward beaumont/ pt. arthur, it may have enough time over water to hit cat 1.

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Beaumont, TX
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
Posts: 318
Re: humberto and friends [Re: OUSHAWN]
      #78342 - Wed Sep 12 2007 09:15 PM

Steady rain here. Just started about an hour ago. Rained this morning but then quit. Local met said we could get up to 10 inches of rain in
some areas. Hopefully not. Tropical storms in Texas, if they hang around long enough, can cause a lot of flooding. I agree with you,
Hank Frank, why didn't they call this TD 8? It sure looked like a depression early this morning and it sure
looked like it was developing. Oh well. Good thing Humberto will run out
of ocean. Humberto should make landfall east of Galveston.


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WeatherNLU
Meteorologist


Reged: Sat
Posts: 212
Loc: New Orleans, LA
Re: humberto and friends [Re: Beaumont, TX]
      #78343 - Wed Sep 12 2007 09:17 PM

Boy, watching radar Humberto seems to be moving ENE possibly, almost looks to be paralleling to coastline of Texas. Sure could be bad if it got another 6 hours or so over water.

P.S. Man what a presentation on radar, looks like a hurricane to me!

--------------------
I survived Hurricane Katrina, but nothing I owned did!


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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
Re: humberto and friends [Re: WeatherNLU]
      #78344 - Wed Sep 12 2007 09:25 PM

Quote:

Boy, watching radar Humberto seems to be moving ENE possibly, almost looks to be paralleling to coastline of Texas. Sure could be bad if it got another 6 hours or so over water.

P.S. Man what a presentation on radar, looks like a hurricane to me!




Hmm... haven't watched too much radar... but it appears that there is two eyewalls... the inner one is open to the SW side.... say about 6-10 miles in diameter... second one 12-16 miles in diameter... couple of good spinner storms in the outer feeder bands to the NE of center

--------------------
www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh



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anomaly18
Registered User


Reged: Sat
Posts: 9
Loc: Galveston, TX
Re: humberto and friends [Re: WeatherNLU]
      #78345 - Wed Sep 12 2007 09:26 PM

Radar shows it moving more easterly. This may get interesting.

Edited by anomaly18 (Wed Sep 12 2007 09:27 PM)


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cieldumort
Moderator


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1835
Loc: Austin, Tx
Re: Tropical Storm Humberto Forms in Gulf of Mexico, Tropical Depression 8 Forms East of Caribbean [Re: MikeC]
      #78346 - Wed Sep 12 2007 09:28 PM

A bit of the battle of environmental conditions vs. duration over warm ocean, tonight.

Humberto is taking in some dry, inland, stabilizing air from its northwest quadrant tonight. Houston, while in the sphere of circulation, is virtually completely free of rain or wind, as a result.

On the other hand, Humberto has clearly had a decent ramp up throughout the morning and afternoon, and I would almost bet more than a wooden nickel that he is pulling more to the right already than guidance would suggest should be happening. If verified, this could indicate a greater length of time over warm water, a further separation between Humberto's coc and land, and perhaps a better chance to get away from the dry air so easily getting entrained tonight. If verified, this would also mean that Humberto could be out over waters long enough to allow for some nocturnal enhancement.

Because of this I would not yet write off any chances for further strengthening leading up to landfall, but just as quickly also suggest that it is probably equally possible Humberto has already peaked out, and is now doing too much battle with the dry air he has ingested, and is still being pinched a bit by.

TWC has Mike Seidel reporting live down in Crystal Beach (just NE of Galveston). Sounds like they've already run into a good bit of freshwater flooding, and have had to change their broadcast location.


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allan
Weather Master


Reged: Thu
Posts: 468
Loc: Palm Coast, Florida
Re: Tropical Storm Humberto Forms in Gulf of Mexico, Tropical Depression 8 Forms East of Caribbean [Re: cieldumort]
      #78347 - Wed Sep 12 2007 09:43 PM

Ya know, by looking at the radar.. this is one impressive 50 mph Tropical Storm LOL. Humberto looks great for TS, at the most, it should stay a TS through landfall, a very strong one at that. I do see a bit of an easterly jog.. could we say what happened with Charley (2004) may happen with Humberto? The situation is similiar weather wise, the cold front could be a bit stronger, just like I predicted and may already be pushing Humberto east.. means more water rocking for it. We'll see what happens, just going by current conditions.

--------------------
Allan Reed - 18,9,5

Edited by allan (Wed Sep 12 2007 09:47 PM)


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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
Re: Tropical Storm Humberto Forms in Gulf of Mexico, Tropical Depression 8 Forms East of Caribbean [Re: Unregistered User]
      #78349 - Wed Sep 12 2007 09:57 PM

Quote:

its a eye forming while moving NE this site never changes




I don't think we have quite an eye yet,... the last few level II images... show still open on the south side... which there appears to be some dry air intaking... the center is only about 20 miles off the coast

**man, it helps to see things with 3-D program of level II radar, esp. in VCP 121 mode ... www.grlevelx.com

Level III (like on weather.gov ridge sites)
http://www.alabamaweather.org/radar/floater.php

Edited by Storm Hunter (Wed Sep 12 2007 09:58 PM)


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Hurricane29
Weather Guru


Reged: Mon
Posts: 148
Loc: Miami Florida
Re: Tropical Storm Humberto Forms in Gulf of Mexico, Tropical Depression 8 Forms East of Caribbean [Re: Storm Hunter]
      #78350 - Wed Sep 12 2007 10:13 PM

Quote:

Quote:

its a eye forming while moving NE this site never changes




I don't think we have quite an eye yet,... the last few level II images... show still open on the south side... which there appears to be some dry air intaking... the center is only about 20 miles off the coast

**man, it helps to see things with 3-D program of level II radar, esp. in VCP 121 mode ... www.grlevelx.com

Level III (like on weather.gov ridge sites)
http://www.alabamaweather.org/radar/floater.php






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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
Re: Tropical Storm Humberto Forms in Gulf of Mexico, Tropical Depression 8 Forms East of Caribbean [Re: Hurricane29]
      #78352 - Wed Sep 12 2007 10:40 PM

Doppler Velocities are peaking out now... as part of the eyewall is getting closer to beach... at about 2,300ft... winds at or around 72-77mph... also notice that the northern eyewall, the top of a few areas of the storm are up to about 50k feet.... (venting pretty good)

--------------------
www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh



Edited by Storm Hunter (Wed Sep 12 2007 10:45 PM)


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allan
Weather Master


Reged: Thu
Posts: 468
Loc: Palm Coast, Florida
Re: Tropical Storm Humberto Forms in Gulf of Mexico, Tropical Depression 8 Forms East of Caribbean [Re: MikeC]
      #78353 - Wed Sep 12 2007 10:43 PM

as of 11 p.m. Humberto has gained up to a strong TS with winds of 65 mph.. This was my landfall prediction in which I now bump up to 70 mph at landfall. Humberto had an eye 2 hours ago, but dry air has opened it.. maybe it could fill in again. We'll see what Humberto does tonight as it continues to strengthen at a good pace.

--------------------
Allan Reed - 18,9,5


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Beaumont, TX
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
Posts: 318
Re: Tropical Storm Humberto Forms in Gulf of Mexico, Tropical Depression 8 Forms East of Caribbean [Re: allan]
      #78354 - Wed Sep 12 2007 11:00 PM

Landfall looks to be a little further east also, closer to the upper Texas coast.
Pressure down to 995 mb.


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scottsvb
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1153
Loc: fl
Re: Tropical Storm Humberto Forms in Gulf of Mexico, Tropical Depression 8 Forms East of Caribbean [Re: Beaumont, TX]
      #78355 - Wed Sep 12 2007 11:15 PM

Well Humberto went right of its general forecasted path and that has given it about 6 hrs of more time over the water increasing the strength up. In general I and the NHC didnt expect this to get much over 50mph but a more NE heading has kept it over water longer. The winds are 65mph about 1000 ft above the surface...and at the surface the strongest recorded over water was 47mph as of 932pm central. Still we go with what the NHC says and they are using the winds 1000ft up expecting them to come down more towards the surface of 100ft.

Unless Humberto stalls out for a few hours or goes more 55-75dg over the next few hours...I dont expect more then a 5mph jump up. A hurricane is not out of the question as all the forecasts so far expected this to move more N inland just west of Galavaston.. but its going east of there. Notice also the western side of the system is bringing in dry air off the landmass. All data shows winds on the western side of this around 35-40kt. In general this right now is still a 50mph just inland from landfall but main thing is Flooding....and also Tornados and Power Outages...


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cieldumort
Moderator


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1835
Loc: Austin, Tx
Re: Tropical Storm Humberto Forms in Gulf of Mexico, Tropical Depression 8 Forms East of Caribbean [Re: MikeC]
      #78356 - Wed Sep 12 2007 11:18 PM

In the 11PM Discussion there is to be found a potentially critical new piece of information
regarding the official forecast thinking tonight.

BASED ON RADAR FIXES THE CURRENT MOTION...030/05 IS A LITTLE TO THE
RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. (We have already concluded as much)
HUMBERTO IS MOVING AROUND THE NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE AND
A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVING EASTWARD OVER TEXAS SHOULD CAUSE A NORTH-
NORTHEASTWARD TO NORTHEASTWARD TRACK OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36
HOURS. (Here it is) BEYOND THAT TIME...THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE
TROUGH COULD BYPASS HUMBERTO...OR ITS REMNANTS. SHOULD THIS
OCCUR...THE SYSTEM COULD LINGER NEAR THE CENTRAL GULF COAST AFTER
48 HOURS.


As per some models, Humberto may attempt to loop back around into or back nearly into the GOM. Of course, if this starts to verify, would have huge implications for potential widespread flooding and/or potential regeneration/other strike possibilities.

Something to keep our eyes on, to be sure.

It's worth noting that these current 65MPH max. sustained winds remain in a fairly small sliver of the storm. Nonetheless, if you are in this band, currently still offshore, it's going to basically feel like a hurricane, regardless of whether or not Humberto gets the next bump.


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Lamar-Plant City
Storm Tracker


Reged: Mon
Posts: 355
Loc: Plant City, Florida
Re: Tropical Storm Humberto Forms in Gulf of Mexico, Tropical Depression 8 Forms East of Caribbean [Re: cieldumort]
      #78357 - Wed Sep 12 2007 11:27 PM

Anyone think there is anything to the GFDL and one of the BAMM models calling for Humberto to curve around clockwise and back to the SE later on (BAMM brings it BACK out to the GOM through the Panhandle....that looks really wierd and I can't help but think they are the WAY outliers on this storm...any thoughts??

EDIT: sorry Cieldumort....didn't see your reference to these model trend...keep an eye on it for me, will ya. Got a BASSmasters tournament to take my girls to this weekend and they are really looking forward to it

--------------------
If you don't like the weather, wait 5 minutes...
2017 Season Prediction: 16/7/3

Edited by Lamar-Plant City (Wed Sep 12 2007 11:29 PM)


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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1060
Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida
Re: Tropical Storm Humberto Forms in Gulf of Mexico, Tropical Depression 8 Forms East of Caribbean [Re: Lamar-Plant City]
      #78358 - Wed Sep 12 2007 11:35 PM

The GFDL and BAMM projections - particularly the BAMM - are just too horrific to think about. Nonetheless, the fact that the NHC thinks enough of the model outputs to fairly significantly change the forecast (stalling out much closer to the coast)... says alot. They should not just be thrown out as outliers. Time will tell, but I think the forecast is still a bit too far left.

--------------------
Hugh

Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)


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Beaumont, TX
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
Posts: 318
Re: Tropical Storm Humberto Forms in Gulf of Mexico, Tropical Depression 8 Forms East of Caribbean [Re: MikeC]
      #78359 - Wed Sep 12 2007 11:41 PM

Humberto is very compact and we are not expecting as much rain as originally thought. Maybe a good soaking. Winds are picking up along
the coast at this time (around High Island and Crystal Beach). Storm should pass through here sometime early morning.


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danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3518
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Re: Tropical Storm Humberto Forms in Gulf of Mexico, Tropical Depression 8 Forms East of Caribbean [Re: Hugh]
      #78360 - Wed Sep 12 2007 11:55 PM

I just checked the latest run of the GFDL against the current Advisory.
GFDL Forecast:
FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

00 28.3 95.1 355./ 5.0
06 28.6 95.2 342./ 3.1
12 29.2 95.3 352./ 6.0
18 30.0 94.8 030./ 9.1

Current Advisory:
29.0N/ 94.6W ...BASED ON RADAR FIXES THE CURRENT MOTION...030/05

AT 1000 PM CDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HUMBERTO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 94.6 WEST OR ABOUT 25
MILES... 40 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF GALVESTON TEXAS AND ABOUT 45
MILES... 70 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF HIGH ISLAND TEXAS.

Humberto at 10PM CDT was 0.2 degree east of the 18 hour forecast position and 0.2 degree south of the 12 hour position.

Edited by danielw (Thu Sep 13 2007 12:00 AM)


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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
Re: Tropical Storm Humberto Forms in Gulf of Mexico, Tropical Depression 8 Forms East of Caribbean [Re: Beaumont, TX]
      #78361 - Thu Sep 13 2007 12:03 AM

looks like the south side of the center has a lot of dry air now... but am seeing higer velocities.. upwards of 85mph at 2,500ft..... Just amazing/pretty cool to see the west side of the rain shield of the storm is not moving that much more west over TX...

--------------------
www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh



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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
Re: Tropical Storm Humberto Forms in Gulf of Mexico, Tropical Depression 8 Forms East of Caribbean [Re: Storm Hunter]
      #78362 - Thu Sep 13 2007 12:24 AM

looks like recon (AF 306... same plane from this afternoon) is halfway there again...
At 04:07:00Z (last observation), the observation was 34 miles (54 km) to the SSE (154°) from Lafayette, LA.

Just in time too... i think landfall could be within the next 2-4hrs. Good chance to see how doppler radar and GPS dropsondes data come out with the winds.. are they seeing the same general thing?.... will know in a little bit!!! I think they may bump the winds up just a hair at the 2pm.

Northern part of the eyewall/band near center is starting to brush the coast NE of Galveston. 0420z

--------------------
www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh



Edited by Storm Hunter (Thu Sep 13 2007 12:27 AM)


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