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Archives 2000s >> 2007 News Talkbacks

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StrmTrckrMiami
Weather Guru


Reged: Mon
Posts: 148
Loc: Manchester, NH
Re: Watching 93L close to the Florida east Coast. [Re: scottsvb]
      #78624 - Wed Sep 19 2007 12:25 PM

I was wondering about this for a while now: Can hurricanes form over land?? The imagry looks as though this "storm" is already over land so it does not have a possibility of gaining strength until it hits the waters of the Gulf am I correct in this?

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Tracking Storms Since 2004
Miami, Cocoa, Fort Myers and Jacksonville
Currently Reside in New England


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MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
Posts: 4149
Loc: Orlando, FL
Re: Watching 93L close to the Florida east Coast. [Re: StrmTrckrMiami]
      #78629 - Wed Sep 19 2007 12:38 PM

No hurricanes cannot form over land. 93L is still very disorganized and not purely tropical. It'll move westward eventually and enter the gulf. It's worth watching there, but it still won't have the time nor the environment to get going too much.

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craigm
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 307
Loc: Palm City, Florida
Re: Watching 93L close to the Florida east Coast. [Re: MikeC]
      #78632 - Wed Sep 19 2007 01:30 PM

SSD has brought Ingrid back on the floater page. NRL has her too but I don't think they ever dropped her.

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Why I'm here:
Weather Junkie


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cieldumort
Moderator


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1860
Loc: Austin, Tx
Re: Watching 93L close to the Florida east Coast. [Re: StrmTrckrMiami]
      #78633 - Wed Sep 19 2007 01:41 PM

In a few extremely rare instances, a tropical depression or storm has formed while mostly inland. In such extremely rare cases, the land is often very flat and in every instance I have looked in to, wet. Also, the atmospheric environment was very moist - not dry. With somewhat more frequency, tropical cyclones can start to form while a portion of them are slightly inland, but they finish the job offshore. I have never heard or read of a hurricane *just* forming while all, mostly, or even partially inland.

With regard to 93 -
The portion over land is mostly the upper level low, and not the surface low or the attendant surface trough.

I find it odd that NRL has the TCFA box up for just west of south Florida - not that it doesn't make any sense, whatsoever, just that it takes a leap of faith at this point, IMHO. The actual surface low, 93L, is still a good bit east of south Florida, and has been drifting north. There was an attempt late overnight to rebuild the primary LLC well to the east of this original location, but it never took. Now for the real mix-up, by all visual appearances, and also just by looking the the numerous buoy and ship data Floridians are treated to, before doing anything else it appears that the entirety of this discombobulated feature is developing a coastal low along the northward advancing warm front (this NEW low, if indeed it is forming, is centered roughly 29-30N, 79-80W). This too can transition into something a good bit more tropical before finally coming ashore. So to buy this TCFA up for where it is, you have to believe that the currently northward advancing surface low associated with 93 takes a flying jump across the state within just the next 24 hours or so, redevelops across the state within 24 hours and washes out what has been considered the center of 93L (still is, even with the TCFA issuance), or the ULL bores down to the surface there.

This brings up no less than FOUR distinct possibilities. When I start thinking in terms of four distinctly different possibilities for one Invest I know I am not looking at anything that has its act together.

So, there they are: 1) ULL bores down to the surface where TCFA is out. 2) Surface low that is meant to be 93L teleports across the state within 24 hours into where the TCFA is out 3) Surface low identified as 93L continues its march slowly north - or whatever direction, as it's been a little erratic, but mostly north - east of Florida and forms into a depression or 4) and what appears to actually be trying to happen, at least this morning at any rate, - a moisture-laden coastal low forms where the northern extent of 93's original surface low meets the warm front, as they continue generally northward in tandem.

I submit that until one of these four possibilities really steps up and stands out, this mess of an upper level low interacting with a surface low, surface trough, and warm front, will have a slow go at any substantive development, at best... and that is truly a no-nonsense, kind a "well, duh," statement.


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metwannabe
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 92
Loc: NC
Re: Watching 93L close to the Florida east Coast. [Re: MikeC]
      #78634 - Wed Sep 19 2007 01:45 PM

i'm new to this post. am a weather enthusiast, particularly tropical cyclones. with that said, am i crazy or does it appear that there is some turning in the low levels, just starting, on the west coast of florida now? it appears in the latest vis sat loop. just in the last couple of frames.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html

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Fran, Bertha, Dennis & Floyd (Tag Team)


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WeatherNut
Weather Master


Reged: Wed
Posts: 412
Loc: Atlanta, GA
Re: Watching 93L close to the Florida east Coast. [Re: metwannabe]
      #78635 - Wed Sep 19 2007 01:50 PM

I am seeing that as well. There is definitely some turning (or what looks a lot like it) due west of the Naples area. I am not seeing evidence on the MIA long range loop, and the link to the TPA radar is down. Definitely worth watching though as this might be a warm core system developing on its own

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Born into Cleo (64)...been stuck on em ever since


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Marknole
Weather Watcher


Reged: Sun
Posts: 44
Loc: Wacissa, FL
Re: Watching 93L close to the Florida east Coast. [Re: metwannabe]
      #78636 - Wed Sep 19 2007 01:53 PM

Last post, (Tropical Floater One-Visible) clearly shows convection and banding in the GOM S.W. of Naples. Are models still showing this heading westbound under the influence of Deep South ridge?

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DrewC
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Thu
Posts: 10
Loc: Auburndale, FL
Re: Watching 93L close to the Florida east Coast. [Re: Marknole]
      #78637 - Wed Sep 19 2007 02:17 PM

The water vapor shows pretty clearly that the center of circulation has reformed off the west coast away from the convection. Now we will have to see if it can pull all the moisture from the east coast around, but it appears that it is trying to spin something up in that hot gulf water.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-wv.html


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metwannabe
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 92
Loc: NC
Re: Watching 93L close to the Florida east Coast. [Re: Marknole]
      #78638 - Wed Sep 19 2007 02:20 PM

local news station here (north carolina), last night showed 2 lows forming from 93l. one (non-tropical) heading slowly north or nearly stationary and the other (of tropical nature) moving west across GOM. could this be happening now?

--------------------
Fran, Bertha, Dennis & Floyd (Tag Team)


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Fletch
Weather Guru


Reged: Mon
Posts: 121
Loc: Ft. Lauderdale, Florida
Re: Watching 93L close to the Florida east Coast. [Re: WeatherNut]
      #78639 - Wed Sep 19 2007 02:21 PM

The Tampa radar is back up. It does show some turning in the vicinity of Naples / Ft. Myers. Impact Weather mentioned this scenario around 10:15 CDT this morning.

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Irwin M. Fletcher


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allan
Weather Master


Reged: Thu
Posts: 468
Loc: Palm Coast, Florida
Re: Watching 93L close to the Florida east Coast. [Re: DrewC]
      #78640 - Wed Sep 19 2007 02:23 PM

That is the ULL that is trying to get into the low levels and this is possibly what all the models were hinting at earlier on... The low is now very clear to see.. it is just east of Melbourne, FL. Conditions are favorable for further development, the 30 knot shear that was in that area is now 10 knots. Also watching Ingrid as that continues to redevelop as we speak.

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Allan Reed - 18,9,5


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doug
Weather Analyst


Reged: Mon
Posts: 961
Loc: parrish,fl
Re: Watching 93L close to the Florida east Coast. [Re: scottsvb]
      #78641 - Wed Sep 19 2007 02:26 PM

how interesting Scott that no one else has picked up on the radar signature of a circulation near Naples, but it is there...it is confirmed on the visible too. This is the most vigouous spin in the system should become the dominant low center in this complicated system, IMO.
EDS

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doug

Edited by doug (Wed Sep 19 2007 02:27 PM)


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madmumbler
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 324
Loc: SWFL
Re: Watching 93L close to the Florida east Coast. [Re: DrewC]
      #78642 - Wed Sep 19 2007 02:26 PM

Quote:

The water vapor shows pretty clearly that the center of circulation has reformed off the west coast away from the convection. Now we will have to see if it can pull all the moisture from the east coast around, but it appears that it is trying to spin something up in that hot gulf water.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-wv.html




I was under the impression according to TWC that there are two lows -- upper, which shows up nicely on water vapor off Tampa Bay, and the lower, which is the one off the east coast.

One of the mets please correct me if I'm wrong?

--------------------
Lesli in SWFL.
Friends help you move. Real friends help you move bodies.


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scottsvb
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1153
Loc: fl
Re: Watching 93L close to the Florida east Coast. [Re: madmumbler]
      #78643 - Wed Sep 19 2007 02:35 PM

Correct the one off the coast of Naples is the upper low... the LLC is about ready to move onshore of Cape C in a few hours.

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OUSHAWN
Weather Guru


Reged: Tue
Posts: 101
Loc: Clear Lake,Tx
Re: Watching 93L close to the Florida east Coast. [Re: scottsvb]
      #78645 - Wed Sep 19 2007 02:46 PM

It looks like the ULL is the one to watch now that it is over the GOM. It will be interesting to see how the next 24hrs play out to see if it can work down to the surface.

Shawn


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allan
Weather Master


Reged: Thu
Posts: 468
Loc: Palm Coast, Florida
Re: Watching 93L close to the Florida east Coast. [Re: OUSHAWN]
      #78646 - Wed Sep 19 2007 02:50 PM

NORMALLY, it takes a few days for an upper level low to work its way down to the surface.. although this could be another "Andrea" scenario where it could be at least hybrid in one day.. something we all need to watch, right now, i'm getting pounded with heavy flooding rains and winds gusting from 35-40 mph.

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Allan Reed - 18,9,5


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anomaly18
Registered User


Reged: Sat
Posts: 9
Loc: Galveston, TX
Re: Watching 93L close to the Florida east Coast. [Re: OUSHAWN]
      #78647 - Wed Sep 19 2007 03:10 PM

WV imagery really shows the rotation in the E. GOM.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-wv.html

Pretty interesting read about a westerly path off FL vs. a NW path.

http://blogs.chron.com/sciguy/


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OUSHAWN
Weather Guru


Reged: Tue
Posts: 101
Loc: Clear Lake,Tx
Re: Watching 93L close to the Florida east Coast. [Re: anomaly18]
      #78648 - Wed Sep 19 2007 03:22 PM

Here's the thing...I believe the feature that will eventually become our TD is already in the GOM because I think it is the ULL that will work down to the surface and go from there. I know the LLC is still on the east coast of Florida but I don't see that being a player now. I realize I could be totally wrong on this but at least at this time my I'm keeping my attention on the ULL.

Shawn


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ChessieStorm
Weather Watcher


Reged: Thu
Posts: 49
Loc: Spring Hill, Fla. (Hernando C...
Re: Watching 93L close to the Florida east Coast. [Re: OUSHAWN]
      #78651 - Wed Sep 19 2007 04:03 PM

Most of the Tampa mets have, with their models, been showing the one on the east coast crossing the state tonight and entering the GOM near the Tampa area (north or south) and in time spinning up into a tropical low which may intensify into a Tropical Storm or Hurricane and headiing toward Louisana, Mississippi and the extreme western tip of the Florida panhandle.

I am just repeating what I have been observing throughout the day here.

The conditions today where I am have been cloudy with a light north/northeast breeze and off and on again light showers.


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doug
Weather Analyst


Reged: Mon
Posts: 961
Loc: parrish,fl
Re: Watching 93L close to the Florida east Coast. [Re: ChessieStorm]
      #78652 - Wed Sep 19 2007 04:07 PM

The situation is fluid...Masters Blog just posted (3:40 p.m.) that a LLC is forming under the ULL which will actually impede development into a warm core tropical feature, and will impact intensity. The east coast center is on the peninsula now and is not looking to vigorous. My guess is it will lose out to the one over the water now.

--------------------
doug


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