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Archives 2000s >> 2007 News Talkbacks

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danielwAdministrator
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Reged: Wed
Posts: 3518
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Re: Subtropical Depression 10 Forms in Gulf of Mexico [Re: Clark]
      #78793 - Fri Sep 21 2007 03:26 PM

I just checked the updated text products direct from NHC.

As of 1926Z or 326pm EDT there are NO UPGRADES to TD 10.


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danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3518
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Tropical Depression 10 [Re: danielw]
      #78794 - Fri Sep 21 2007 03:33 PM

Please provide links to UPGRADES or run the risk of having the post DELETED.
However... Using the last VORTEX message. And NHC's previous protocol.
The Last Vortex message-below. Indicates the high probablility of TD 10 being a Tropical Storm at the next Advisory.

Warm Core temperatures.
Max Flight level wind of 47kts in SE Quadrant.
Estimated surface wind of 40 knots. (39 knots is Tropical Storm threshhold-please correct me if I'm wrong)

A. 21/16:23:00Z
B. 29 deg 34 min N
085 deg 45 min W
C. NA mb NA m
D. 40 kt
E. NA deg 86 nm
F. 164 deg 037 kt
G. 088 deg 072 nm
H. EXTRAP 1006 mb
I. 22 C/ 462 m
J. 22 C/ 457 m
K. 21 C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 134/1
O. 0.02 / 3 nm
P. AF303 04IIA INVEST OB 19
MAX FL WIND 47 KT SE QUAD 15:34:40 Z
MAX FL TEMP 23 C, 88 / 70NM
SLP EXTRAP FROM 1500 FT.


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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
Re: Tropical Depression 10 [Re: danielw]
      #78795 - Fri Sep 21 2007 03:35 PM

this was later from NOAA2

000
URNT12 KWBC 211743
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 21/1731Z
B. 29 DEG 40 MIN N
86 DEG 4 MIN W
C. 850 MB 1477 M
D. 30 KT
E. 100 DEG 7 NM
F. 180 DEG 36 KT
G. 100 DEG 7 NM
H. 1006 MB
I. 17 C/1522 M
J. 17 C/1539 M
K. 17 C/NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 134/8
O. 1/1 NM
P. NOAA2 05IIA INVEST OB 15 AL102007
MAX FL WIND 36 KT SE QUAD 1704Z
MAX SFMR WIND 37 KT SE QUAD 1705Z
SLP FROM SONDE
CENTER SONDE 15 KTS AT SFC

--------------------
www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh



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danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3518
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Other areas [Re: danielw]
      #78796 - Fri Sep 21 2007 03:36 PM

Some of the TV Broadcast Models were indicating the broad trough in the NW Caribbean will move into the GOM and merge with TD 10... or TS Jerry which ever the case may be.
Source WLOX-TV Biloxi,MS.


AXNT20 KNHC 211806
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT FRI SEP 21 2007

...IN FACT...GFS CONTINUES TO DEVELOP A WEAK
LOW IN THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN AND MOVE IT THROUGH THE YUCATAN BY
LATE THIS WEEKEND...BUT THERE IS CURRENTLY LOW CONFIDENCE IN
THIS SCENARIO.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATWDAT+shtml/211806.shtml?


Edited by danielw (Fri Sep 21 2007 03:39 PM)


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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
Re: Other areas [Re: danielw]
      #78797 - Fri Sep 21 2007 03:40 PM

NOAA2 went through center right at 1915z.... vortex coming soon.. correction

BIG STORMS OVER CENTER NOW.... would expect upgrade... http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/trop_ge_storm_relative_0.html

--------------------
www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh



Edited by Storm Hunter (Fri Sep 21 2007 03:47 PM)


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danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3518
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
TD 10 [Re: Storm Hunter]
      #78798 - Fri Sep 21 2007 03:53 PM

The post refering to a Possible Upgrade of TD 10 above has been questioned.

I have reviewed the whole email and it is from a reliable... non commercial source. With many years research in Tropical Meteorology.

Until NHC Upgrades TD 10 we'll just have to stick with that Official Title.

Thanks.

I was incorrect on my TS wind scale earlier it is 35knots or 39 mph.
Therefore the earlier VORTEX Message would appear to indicate that TD 10 is probably a Tropical Storm.

Again we will have to wait until the next Advisory for a probable Upgrade.


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Clark
Meteorologist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1710
Loc:
Re: Tropical Depression 10 [Re: Storm Hunter]
      #78799 - Fri Sep 21 2007 03:58 PM

The NHC had those vortex messages in time for the 2p advisory, where it was changed from a subtropical depression to a tropical depression. I'm curious as to whether or not they felt those winds were representative of the system as a whole or were more representative of convective-contaminated gusts given the non-upgrade at that point. The 5p discussion might shed some light on this.

--------------------
Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)


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danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3518
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Re: Tropical Depression 10 [Re: Storm Hunter]
      #78800 - Fri Sep 21 2007 03:58 PM

Both of the last Vortex Messages are above Tropical Storm strength...at flight level.

Clark posted while I was editing my post. I'm with Clark. I'm sure that NHC has a valid reson for not Upgrading TD 10.

However...Humberto is fresh in many Coastal Resident's memory.

Edited by danielw (Fri Sep 21 2007 04:02 PM)


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weather999
Weather Watcher


Reged: Thu
Posts: 25
Loc: southwestern ontario, canada
Re: Other areas [Re: Storm Hunter]
      #78801 - Fri Sep 21 2007 04:07 PM

That was a short lived STD

Thankfully, 10L should run out of time and fizzle out pretty quickly...providing it doesn't pull a Humberto.

Perhaps a special advisory/update will be issued in the next 15 mins to upgrade it to Jerry--since it is an immediate threat to land?


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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
Re: Other areas [Re: weather999]
      #78802 - Fri Sep 21 2007 04:14 PM

this is starting to look like it may make landfall in the western panhandle... its going to be close... PNS area?

If the current trend holds further east than that...Ft Walton? JK

--------------------
www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh



Edited by wxman007 (Fri Sep 21 2007 04:29 PM)


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mbfly
Weather Guru


Reged: Mon
Posts: 117
Loc: Mobile, Alabama
Re: TD 10 [Re: danielw]
      #78803 - Fri Sep 21 2007 04:21 PM

Quote:

The post refering to a Possible Upgrade of TD 10 above has been questioned.

I have reviewed the whole email and it is from a reliable... non commercial source. With many years research in Tropical Meteorology.

Until NHC Upgrades TD 10 we'll just have to stick with that Official Title.

Thanks for the support ! My apologies to the forum for coming off sounding like a "the sky is falling Chicken Little or a troll ! I was just trying to give a heads up but sharing what I probably shouldn't have.......... from now on I'll just reference the official reports when they come out along with everyone else.

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wxman007
Meteorologist


Reged: Sat
Posts: 617
Loc: Tuscaloosa, AL
Re: TD 10 [Re: mbfly]
      #78804 - Fri Sep 21 2007 04:32 PM

Still TD 10 at the 5pm Adv.

EDIT: From the Disco:

THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS REMAINED FAIRLY STEADY TODAY.
EARLIER FLIGHT-LEVEL DATA IN THE BAND TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER
SUGGESTED WINDS MIGHT HAVE BEEN AT TROPICAL STORM FORCE...ALTHOUGH
DROPSONDES IN THE BAND DID NOT INDICATE THAT MUCH WIND. IN ANY
EVENT...THE BAND HAS SINCE WEAKENED...AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY
ESTIMATE REMAINS 30 KT.

--------------------
Jason Kelley


Edited by wxman007 (Fri Sep 21 2007 04:35 PM)


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pcola
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 344
Loc: pensacola/gulf breeze
Re: TD 10 [Re: wxman007]
      #78805 - Fri Sep 21 2007 04:50 PM

the local radar here is showing a NNW drift or motion....i would not be surprised to see the weak center come in near where Dennis did 2 years ago...it seems when storms get into the area of the Gulf that juts in between LA and Appalachicola, storms want to have a Right Turn mentality. Dennis did it, Erin did it, Ivan did it, and it looks like TD 10 will also...Radar shows the storm about 20 miles south of Destin, and some heavier convection firing on the west side of the coc

Dr Lions on Weather channel confirms what I though, and said it could be onshore in a couple of hours, between Destin and Pcola

--------------------
Erin 95 , Opal 95, Ivan 04, Dennis 05, and that's enough!!!!

Edited by pcola (Fri Sep 21 2007 04:52 PM)


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Trekman
Weather Watcher


Reged: Fri
Posts: 32
Loc: Fort Walton Beach FL
Re: TD 10 [Re: pcola]
      #78806 - Fri Sep 21 2007 06:16 PM

Not sure about that. Dennis came in near Navarre Beach....

This thing...at least looking at the radar looks just off of Destin and heading right for it.

Just my amateur observation.

Does anyone else see it or am I nuts



Channel 3 is saying it MAY possibly be onshore near Sandestin or just offshore of it.

--------------------
Went though: Erin ('95), Opal ('95), Danny ('97), Georges ('98), Ivan ('04), Dennis ('05)

Emergency Administration and Management program at Northwest Florida State College

Edited by Trekman (Fri Sep 21 2007 06:22 PM)


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wxman007
Meteorologist


Reged: Sat
Posts: 617
Loc: Tuscaloosa, AL
WJHG-TV Live Stream [Re: Trekman]
      #78807 - Fri Sep 21 2007 06:33 PM

My station, WJHG-TV out of Panama City, FL is streaming our newscasts this evening live at 6pm and 10pm CDT. Point IE (Firefox does not work) at this link and click on streaming newscasts on the left hand side.

--------------------
Jason Kelley


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Wxwatcher2
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
Posts: 337
Loc:
Onshore now? [Re: Trekman]
      #78808 - Fri Sep 21 2007 06:46 PM

Looking at a couple of radars, it appears at 18:30 hours that this depression is on shore.

I am glad for all concerned that this storm did not have enough time over the gulf to intensify into a Tropical Storm.
Those who were calling for Jerry were premature. This low/depression never really had the conditions to develop as some had thought.

I'm happy once again for a fairly calm season.

Condolances to those in Eustis, Florida who lost property in the Tornado last night.


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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1060
Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida
Re: Onshore now? [Re: Wxwatcher2]
      #78809 - Fri Sep 21 2007 07:01 PM

Based upon the NW Florida radar, I estimate landfall occurred at 5:15pm, near East Pass, between Destin and Ft. Walton Beach. TD Ten now appears to have made a sharp turn to the west, and is moving west along Okaloosa Island. The circulation is partly still over water, and based upon the radar signature, I would not be surprised if there were some winds in the area near 40mph.... and it would not surprise me for TD Ten to get a post-season upgrade, both based upon analysis of its landfall intensity in the panhandle, and its apparent intensity as a non-tropical/sub-tropical low as it crossed the peninsula.

Of course, it's also *possible* that the NHC upgrades at the advisory in an hour.

--------------------
Hugh

Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)


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Genesis
Weather Guru


Reged: Wed
Posts: 121
Re: Onshore now? [Re: Hugh]
      #78810 - Fri Sep 21 2007 07:15 PM

Yeah, we're pretty much at "Ground Zero" here (Niceville, ~7 miles from East Pass Destin, and if the radar here is correct the COC basically came in right here just a bit ago)

This was a non-event. Some rain but not hideous amounts, no real amount of wind to speak of. Certainly not a TS from what I can determine, and it'd have to be a darn small storm with the presentation and proximity for us not to get TS-strength winds if it is one!

My kid and her friends were actually swimming in the pool an hour ago with the rain pouring down on them. No lightning in it.....

There were some severe warnings up north of us, but nothing right here at the coast.


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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1060
Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida
Re: Onshore now? [Re: Genesis]
      #78811 - Fri Sep 21 2007 07:24 PM

Yeah, Genesis... one of the METs told me a few hours ago, that this thing might come right over my house and I wouldn't know it. Looks like he was right on all counts. There DOES appear to be nasty weather going on in the Destin/Ft. Walton Beach/Navarre area, right near the center, based upon radar, but we dodged a bullet. The fact that the storm took a hard turn west at landfall helped us in the Niceville/Valp area to avoid the nasty rains, probably.

--------------------
Hugh

Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)


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pcola
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 344
Loc: pensacola/gulf breeze
Re: Onshore now? [Re: Hugh]
      #78812 - Fri Sep 21 2007 07:31 PM

great.....i thought it was continuing nw....i guess i better get the burgers off the grill...i have not seen a gust here along the coast 15 miles from coc over 20

--------------------
Erin 95 , Opal 95, Ivan 04, Dennis 05, and that's enough!!!!


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