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Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 12 (Florence) , Major: 371 (Maria) Florida - Any: 380 (Irma) Major: 380 (Irma)
12.0N 53.5W
Wind: 45MPH
Pres: 1004mb
W at 18 mph
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Archives 2000s >> 2007 News Talkbacks

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Reged: Mon
Posts: 1778
Loc: Austin, Tx
Re: Noel Over Cuba, Weaker [Re: danielw]
      #79405 - Wed Oct 31 2007 03:20 AM

Well, I'm going to go a tiny bit out on a limb here and speculate that the LLC has been pulled in closer to the incredibly deep and rather large flareup of convection within the MLC so far tonight, and, based on an assortment of IR channels plus the radar out of Camaguey, I want to estimate the center to have been tugged nearly due north, to around 22N 78W, as of 3AM EDT. It appears that the LLC is elongated SSW-NNE, and clearly may already be feeling a hint of pulling and stretching.. but not by the trof, which is still back in the GOM, but by the interaction with the MLC flareups and whatever last vestige of the old ULL still exists, I suspect.

Should this more or less be the case, the LLC is essentially back over water, or very nearly so. Lots and lots of data already suggest that Noel could possibly be several MPH "stronger" than the advisory calls for, and perhaps once recon gets back in there, this verifies, as NHC left things at 40 for both the 11PM and 2AM, when the center was arguably mostly well-inland.

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Weather Master

Reged: Mon
Posts: 1153
Loc: fl
Re: Noel Over Cuba, Weaker [Re: danielw]
      #79406 - Wed Oct 31 2007 03:26 AM

Maps dont tell the whole story.. You have to look at other data and the MLF that will steer this system and its NNW to N and once the trough picks it up...the system will move NE ahead and become extratropical as it merges with the trough. A piece of energy may slip south but nothing more than a weak LLC.

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Weather Master

Reged: Thu
Posts: 468
Loc: Palm Coast, Florida
Re: Noel Over Cuba, Weaker [Re: MikeC]
      #79409 - Wed Oct 31 2007 08:39 AM

Noel is finally moving NNW and will continue this motion for about a few hours until that ridge can move east enough. Here's the new 1000 - 1010 MLB storm steering currents which explains EVERYTHING!
Almost there folks, just needs a little more eastward push
Now I do believe the storm might get stronger so here is the 999 - 990 MLB storm steering map
This shows a much better chance of a recurvature, possible in 5 hours or less.. of course it's always known that a stronger storm has a better chance on feeling the weakness then a weaker storm.
Here's how I see it, it keeps moving NNW for about 3-4 hours, then north for about 2-3 hours. Then it should start moving NE after that. This is all based on what i'm seeing on the steering current maps.

Allan Reed - 18,9,5

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Reged: Mon
Posts: 1778
Loc: Austin, Tx
Re: Noel Over Cuba, Weaker [Re: MikeC]
      #79411 - Wed Oct 31 2007 09:09 AM

Don't let anyone ever tell you that tropical cyclones, in rare instances, can't hold their own, or even intensify, over land, especially if the "land' is an island just, what, 50 miles wide in places. The LLC has obviously been pulled well-north, and Noel is on a tear this morning.

12:54:00Z 22.83N 78.22W
994.8 mb
(~ 29.38 inHg)

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